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The Case for Seeding Europe from #StartupTurkey 2014
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The Case for Seeding Europe from #StartupTurkey 2014
1.
THE CASE FOR
SEEDING EUROPE +Turkey STARTUPTURKEY 2014 VITALY M. GOLOMB | @VITALYG
2.
+Investor K E E
N P R I N T. C O M I N V E S T O R H A R V E S T. C O S TA R T U PA D D V E N T U R E . C O
3.
#startupturkey supports #ukraine
4.
THE SILICON VALLEY
FUNDING STACK circa 2014 M&A / IPO GROWTH EQUITY $100M+ VC FUNDS ANGELS/SEED VCs ACCELERATORS BOOTSTRAP/Friends Family & Fools
5.
EUROPEAN FUNDING STACKcirca
2014 M&A / IPO GROWTH EQUITY $100M+ VC FUNDS ANGELS / SEED VCs ACCELERATORS BOOTSTRAP / FFF
6.
2001 DOT COM
CRASH US VC FUNDS RAN AWAY FROM EUROPE few, STRONG EUROPEAN VC FUNDS SURVIVED
7.
8.
LARGE FUND THESIS
ARE BASED ON $5M+ FIRST ROUND … and pre-date
9.
LIMITED BIG DEALS + LIMITED
EXITS = MOST REGIONAL FUNDS TOO BIG TO PROVIDE GOOD RETURNS
10.
YESTERDAY’S SEED IS
TODAY’S SERIES A/B
11.
YESTERDAY’S IPOs ARE
TODAY’S ACQUIHIRES
12.
SOURCE: STEVE BLANK
13.
MEDIAN EXIT =
$20M SOURCE: SEED DB
14.
MINIMUM ACCEPTABLE VC
RETURN 20% IRR OR 6X ON CASH $300M FUND = $1.8B
15.
MODEL BROKEN EVEN
IN SILICON VALLEY TOP QUARTILE = 2.1X
16.
SOURCE: STEVE BLANK
17.
DO YOU FEEL LUCKY?
18.
WELL DO YOU, PUNK?
19.
EUROPE PRODUCES HIGHER MULTIPLES
THAN U.S.
20.
EXIT ARE 25%
SMALLER, BUT… ENTRY VALUATIONS ARE 3-4X LOWER
21.
EUROPE PRODUCES 50% AS
MANY EXITS AS U.S. AND 1/3 OF $100M+ EXITS WITH ONLY 20% OF U.S. VC
22.
MEDIAN CASH-ON-CASH $100M+ EXIT
MULTIPLE 4.5X US 2005-2011 SOURCE: EARLYBIRD, DOW JONES VENTURE SOURCE 7.2X EUROPE
23.
REPEAT ENTREPRENEURS IN VC
FUNDED COMPANIES 50% NEW 93% NEW 50% REPEAT 7% REPEAT 1998 2007 SOURCE: EARLYBIRD GLOBAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP REPORT
24.
NUMBER OF LATENT
EUROPEAN ENTREPRENEURS GROWING 9.0% 8.5% 2012 7.4% 2006 5.2% 4.5% 2000 SOURCE: EARLYBIRD GLOBAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP REPORT
25.
DEAL FLOW GROWING 12%
CAGR
26.
BLACKJACK
27.
SPLIT DOUBLE DOWN MULTIPLE INVESTMENTS IN THE
SAME THEME INCREASE OWNERSHIP % AS RISK IS REMOVED
28.
TYPICAL “BLACKJACK” 3
STAGE INVESTMENT PATH (IN EUROPE) $500K@ $8M VAL = 14% OWNERSHIP (POST DILUTION) $100K@ $1M VAL = 10% OWNERSHIP $200K@ $4M VAL = 12.5% OWNERSHIP (POST DILUTION)
29.
CASH-ON-CASH EXIT MATH $30M 5.25X $50M
$100M 8.75X 17.5X
30.
TYPICAL FUND NEEDS
AT LEAST TWO 30X EXITS OUT OF 10-20 INVESTMENTS “BLACKJACK” FUND HAS 10X MORE CHANCES
31.
@vitalyg
32.
“BLACKJACK” SEED FUND FOR
EUROPE LAUNCHING IN 2014 @vitalyg
33.
“I SKATE TO
WHERE THE PUCK IS GOING TO BE, NOT WHERE IT HAS BEEN.” ! WAYNE GRETZKY
34.
want the slides? follow
@vitalyg