Attitude Correction - Market Overview Recorded live April 7th, 2020 (video will be posted soon)

1. April 7th, 2020
Powertrains For The Air - Hydrogen vs. Lithium
GS Capital
Vitaly M. Golomb John Hamilton
HyPoint
Alex Ivanenko
University of South Carolina
Brian C. Benicewicz
KeraCel
Arwed Niestroj
HyPoint
Sergey Shubenkov
Bartini
Ilya Khanykov
ZeroAvia
Val Miftakhov
JNLCorp

2. A Brief Market Overview
April 7th, 2020
Attitude Correction

3. Vitaly M. Golomb
Managing Partner
UJET

4. The Macro Environment
A drop in business activity
A drop in investment activity
…and some historical context

5. We are going into a major, global recession
50The economics of a pandemic: The case of Covid-19
A major recession coming
economists:
uropean and US
redict major
ave a stronger view
emerging markets
mic-impact-pandemic-igm-forum-survey (12th March)
Source: London Business School - The economics of a pandemic: the case of Covid-19 by Paolo Surico and Andrea Galeotti

6. All sectors impacted, some severely
59london.edu The economics of a pandemic: The case of Covid-19
The most affected sectors
McKinsey Global report (9th march 2020)
Source: London Business School - The economics of a pandemic: the case of Covid-19 by Paolo Surico and Andrea Galeotti

7. All sectors impacted, some severely
55The economics of a pandemic: The case of Covid-19
Impact on restaurants
com/state-of-industry
Source: London Business School - The economics of a pandemic: the case of Covid-19 by Paolo Surico and Andrea Galeotti
56london.edu The economics of a pandemic: The case of Covid-19
Impact on durables expenditure
In face of negative income shocks, one of the first
and strongest response of households with high
marginal propensity to consume is to postpone
vehicle purchases. Increase in uncertainty is likely
to have a similar effect that works via a
precautionary motive.
Evidence (from projects funded by ERC grants):
U.S. - Misra-Surico (2014, AEJM),
Italy - Surico-Trezzi (2019, JEEA),
U.K. - Cloyne-Ferreira-Surico (2020, ReStud)
Data on China suggests overall impact will be
extraordinary large! Unfortunately, this is only the
direct effect. More on this later.

8. There will be a slowdown in funding & exits
Source: Fabrice Grinda - The global economy and its impact on startups in the time of COVID-19
US VC Deal Activity

9. The slow down in venture is already here
Global Deal Volume

10. But history should make us optimistic
Source: Fabrice Grinda - The global economy and its impact on startups in the time of COVID-19

11. – Eric Adams, Wired Magazine, June 2017
The Age of Electric Aviation
Is Just 30 Years Away

12. – Vladimir Lenin
There are decades where
nothing happens, and there are
weeks where decades happen.

13. The Silver Lining
So what have we learned?
1. What “crisis” really means
2. No sense to make outdated investments
3. This may be the inflection point for EVs

14. Efficiency has plateaued
Source: The International Council on Clean Transportation via Atkins Global

15. Air is 2-3% of emissions currently but must be controlled
Source: IATA via TopTal

16. Opening up previously unprofitable routes
Source: Zunum Aero via TopTal

17. Electric propulsion is coming
Source: eAircraft market evaluation via TopTal

18. What will get us there?
Source: Green Future As via Electric Working Group

19. I’M GLAD
YOU ASKED…
www.golomb.net // www.GSCap.co
v.golomb@gscap.co