SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 58
Baixar para ler offline
Bangladesh Delta Scenarios
Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman
trsumon@gmail.com
BANGLADESH DELTA PLAN 2100
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
BDP2100 Vision
Ensure long term water and food security, economic
growth and environmental sustainability while effectively
coping with natural disasters, climate change and other
delta issues through robust, adaptive and integrated
strategies, and equitable water governance.
Tentative BDP Goals
Goal 1: Ensure safety from floods and climate change related
disasters
Goal 2: Ensure water security and efficiency of water usages
Goal 3: Ensure sustainable and integrated river systems and
estuaries management
Goal 4: Conserve and preserve wetlands and ecosystems and
promote their wise use
Goal 5: Develop effective institutions and equitable
governance for in country and trans-boundary water
resources management
Goal 6: Achieve optimal use of land and water resources
Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md.
Taibur Rahman
Investment and Implementation Plan
Formulation of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
Monitoring & Evaluation of the BDP 2100
D
E
L
T
A
A
T
E
L
I
E
R
S
&
T
T
I
N
T
E
R
A
C
T
I
O
N
G
C
Current Policy
Situation
Sectoral status
Drivers & Problems
Integrated Analysis
Finalization of
Baseline Studies
Formulation of Delta
Vision
Development of
Assessment Framework
Scenario Development
Analysis of Strategies
Preferred Strategies
Governance
and Legal Framework
Institutional Development
& Capacity Building
Preparation of
Sectoral & Regional
Arrangements
Dissemination
Financial Mechanisms
ADAPTIVE STRATEGIESBASELINE STUDIES DELTA FRAMEWORK
7th
Five
Year
Plan
Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur
Rahman
Bangladesh Delta Scenario: Introduction
• A tool for policy makers to make robust, adaptive and
integrated strategies
• Describe uncertain futures and identify potential impacts
that have an important influence on the success or failure of
a given strategy or measure
• Evaluate the effectiveness of measures and strategies for
each scenario, which helps decision makers to prioritize their
choices
• Strategies selection made easier for various possible
outcomes even for ‘extreme edges’
Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman
• Data from UN, IPCC and baseline studies utilized
• Extensive stakeholder consultation
• Building blocks developed in workshop at GED (Feb 2015)
• Substantiated through input from experts and validation workshops
• Scenarios quantification based on:
– Climate change model analysis
– Current and historic trend analysis
– Benchmarking with comparable economies
• Scenarios represent possible ‘Business as usual’ developments
(continuation of current policies)
• Well suited to evaluate and assess investments options as part of 5-
year planning process
Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur
Rahman
Bangladesh Delta Scenarios
7Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014
Diversified Economy
(high per capita growth)
Traditional Economy
(low per capita growth)
stable water conditions
(limited climate
change and upstream
developments)
Extreme water conditions
(extensive climate
change and
upstream developments)
Productive
Congestion
Resilient
Stagnation
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR.
MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Key Drivers :Upstream water development
Productive Resilient
• Very high economic growth
• Moderate climate change
• Strongly globalized and diversified economy with many shared
interests between riparian countries
• Low to moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to
medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term
(2050 – 2100)
• Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge
development
• Trans-boundary agreements for main and regional rivers
• Joint water development projects in upstream catchments
• High economic growth
• High climate change
• Moderately diversified economy, strong agri-sector, moderate
shared interests between riparian countries
• Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium in
the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100)
• Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development
• Trans-boundary agreements for main rivers
• Joint water development projects in upstream catchments
Congestion Stagnation
• Low but stable economic growth
• Moderate climate change
• Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between riparian
countries
• Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium in the
medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100)
• Little to medium data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development
• Extension of Ganges treaty only
• Low and decreasing economic growth
• High climate change
• Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between riparian
countries
• Moderate to high increase in upstream abstraction from medium in the medium
term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100)
• Little data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development
• Extension of Ganges treaty only
Key characteristics of upstream abstractions for each scenario
ResilientProductive
Congestion Stagnation
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Key Drivers: Economic Structure, International Markets
and Technology Developments
Key issues are:
•Globalization and development of trade
•Human capital development (investments)
•Global market of manufactured products of Bangladesh
•Level and driver of industrial development
•Economic transformation
•Investments in infrastructure
•Digital and agricultural technology
•Modernization of agricultural sector
•Impact of cross-border trade
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Key Drivers: Demographics, Urbanization, Land Use Changes
Main issues are:
•Population growth and composition
•Land use changes
•Level of unplanned urbanization
•Decrease of agricultural land
•Emergence of ‘high input, high investment, high return’
agriculture (flowers, strawberries, broccoli etc) as compared to
low input low risk types of agriculture
•Food security, livelihoods and poverty
•Access to education
•Change in consumption patterns of Bangladesh
•Equality – e.g. differences between rich and poor
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Key Drivers : Others
• Governance and political situation
• Environment
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Key socio economic indicators
14Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014
Population
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population(Millions)
Year
productive resilient
Congestion stagnation
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
GDP Per Capita
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Land Use Selected Land Use types over time
Contd…SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Selected Land Use types over time
Land Use
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
BDP2100 Delta Scenarios
Summary narratives scenarios BDP2100SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Scenario 1 Productive – Market Driven Delta
• Moderate climate change
• upstream collaboration
• Market-driven economy,
• focus on rapid economic growth,
• private investments,
• rapid technological advancement,
• modernization of the agricultural sector,
• Rice replaced by higher value crops
• rapid urbanization distributed across the country
• Large pressures on the environment due rapid market driven
development
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Socio-Economic
Developments
Climate Change
Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction
Scenario 1 Productive Delta
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Scenario 2 Resilient - Dynamic Delta
• Rapid climate change
• Limited international collaboration
• sustainable economic growth,
• reduction of inequality,
• Vulnerable nature
• modernization of agricultural through cooperatives
• water guides and limits development
• fast urbanisation and increased rural-urban connectivity
• technological change aimed at sustainable agricultural production
• emergence of agri-business hubs
• Reducing pressure on environment due to sustainable development
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Socio-Economic
Developments
Climate Change
Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction
Scenario 2 Resilient Delta
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Scenario 3 Congestion- Delta Under Pressure
• Moderate climate change
• Now new upstream developments
• Traditional growth with focus on low-value production,
• Continuation of small scale rice-based farming
• limited technological diffusion
• central economy and top-down regulation,
• high inequality and growing wealthy elite,
• water follows development,
• fast growing Dhaka & Chittagong with urban sprawl
• Pressure on environment due to uncontrolled urban expansion
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Socio-Economic
Developments
Climate Change
Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction
Scenario 3 Congestion Delta
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Scenario 4 Stagnation Delta- Basic Needs First
• Rapid climate change
• Increase in hydrological extremes
• more frequent and intense cyclones
• Traditional growth with focus on low-value
production
• Focus on subsistence rice based farming
• fast growing population
• slow technological change
• high urban and rural poverty
• Limited international collaboration,
increased upstream extractions
• Increasing pressure on the environment due
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Socio-Economic
Developments
Climate Change
Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction
Scenario 4 Stagnation Delta
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Summary Overview Scenarios
Socio-Economic
Developments
Climate Change
Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction
Land Use Development
Population Development
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Steps
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Assessment of Water Related Implications
Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation
Ability to invest
in adaptation
($)
$$$$ - very high GDP growth, ample
economic means
$$$ - high GDP growth, adequate economic
means
$$ - low GDP growth, limited
economic means
$- very low GDP growth, severely
limited economic means
Floodrisk
Economic
damage risk
High: high economic asset values / very
high GDP growth, moderate CC
Very high: high economic value / high GDP
growth, high CC
Moderate: moderate
economic value / low GDP
growth, moderate CC
Moderate: moderate economic value /
low GDP growth, high CC
Rural
population (and
their livelihood)
at risk
Low: good connectivity and rapid
development of rural areas (incl. chars),
improved gender distribution and lower
poverty level, moderate CC
Moderate: good connectivity and rapid
development of rural areas (incl. chars),
improved gender distribution and lower
poverty level, high CC
High; rural isolation (incl.
chars), no improvement in
gender distribution and lower
poverty level, moderate CC.
Post flood impacts severe
Very high; rural isolation (incl. chars) &
bad housing, no improvement in gender
distribution and lower poverty level,
high CC. Severe post flood impacts
Urban
population (and
their livelihood)
at risk
Low: very high GDP growth, high
urbanisation level and better housing, low
unemployment, moderate CC
Low: high GDP growth, low urbanization level
and better housing, low unemployment, high
CC
High: high number of informal
housing, high urbanisation
level, high inequality, high
unemployment, moderate CC
Very high: high number of informal
housing, high urbanisation level, high
inequality, high unemployment, high CC
Critical infra &
objects (e.g.
roads, power
supply,
sanitation, ICT,
schools,
hospitals) at risk
Moderate: critically important
infrastructure and objects in flood-prone
areas at highest experienced flood/storm-
surge level, moderate CC
High: critically important infrastructure and
objects in flood-prone areas at highest
experienced flood/storm-surge level,
unexpected depths and areas larger through
high CC
Low: underdeveloped
infrastructure and objects in
flood-prone areas at highest
experienced flood/storm-
surge level, moderate CC
Moderate: underdeveloped
infrastructure and objects in flood-
prone areas at highest experienced
flood/storm-surge level, unexpected
depths and areas larger through high CC
Watersecurity
Rural Water
security
Low: Agricultural water demand will stabilise
due to the cultivation of higher value crops and
stabilising boro rice cultivation. This in
combination with relatively high availability will
result in moderate scarcity. The need for reliable
(timely, adequate) water supply increases
notably
High: Although the modernization of agriculture will
over time reduce the demand, the reduction in dry
season supply and increased saline intrusion will
result in higher water stress
Moderate: Water demands will
be high under this scenario due
to continued demand for
irrigated boro rice and the need
for food self-sufficiency. Due to
continued supply water stress
will be moderate
Very high: Extensive salt water
intrusion, frequent drought and
high demand due to continuation
of rice production leads to growing
and severe water stress
Urban water
security
Moderate: Urban water demands will rapidly
expand due to increased urbanization and rapid
industrial expansion. Due to reduced
competition with agriculture, moderate CC and
low upstream abstraction, urban water stress
will stabilize. Water quality will become
increasingly limiting for industrial and domestic
use
Low: Urban water demand will rapidly increase. It will
be difficult to meet these needs especially in the dry
season due to frequent droughts and high upstream
water abstractions. In the wet season supply will
become difficult due to floods and extreme weather
events. Growing IW Transport sector severely
constrained due to low water levels
Moderate: Demand will be
moderate due to low economic
and urban growth although
population growth will be high.
Deteriorating water quality will
limit water use for domestic,
agricultural and industrial use
Very low: Unabated water
pollution and poor w water quality,
in combination with frequent
droughts, population increase and
salt water intrusion cause severe
urban water stress. Stress is
mitigated due to low urbanization
and industrialization rates
Environment
al pressures
Moderate to High: Due to rapid market driven
economic development, environmental
pressures will initially increase. In the long run,
a richer population will demand environmental
protection and the economic growth will allow
investment in water treatment, reuse and water
saving technologies and place a higher value on
ecosystems preservation. Good cooperation
with upstream neighbours will enhance water
quality improvement upstream
High: Due to rapid market driven economic
development, environment pressures will continue to
increase. CC and high upstream abstraction
exacerbate these pressures leading to water quality
concerns; with saline intrusion as key factor The lower
number of people will slightly mitigate this pressure.
In the long run, a richer population will demand
environmental protection; Economic growth will allow
investment in water treatment, reuse and water
saving technologies and place a higher value on
ecosystems preservation. Good cooperation with
upstream neighbours will enhance water quality
High due to continued
unsustainable water
management, and food self-
sufficiency, wetlands, rivers and
coastal areas will come under
increasing pressure. There is
little scope for investments in
environmental technologies and
development
Very high The high number of
people in combination with high CC
and high upstream water
abstraction will result in very low
water quality especially in the dry
season. The lack of public and
private funding along with limited
riparian collaboration lead to very
high environmental pressures
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Conclusion
• Four distinctive Bangladesh Delta scenarios have been developed
with the aim to offer four different, plausible stories of possible
future directions important for future water management
• In the current phase of the BDP2100, the proposed measures and
strategies are assessed against different future outcomes
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
www.bandudeltas.org
Road # 83, House # 13/A , NE(K), Level 5
Gulshan-2, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Productive Scenario 2015
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Population Million inhabitants 169 175 185 194 200 165
Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 28 38 49 58 70 85
GDP Growth
Average annual real GDP growth rates
(%)
6.3 7.7 8.0 7.5 6.8 3.0
GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 1,147 2,322 4,606 8,707 58,000
Agricultural sector share
GDP contribution agricultural sector
(%)
16 15 12 10 8 5
Agriculture employment share
% of people employed in agriculture
sector
47 40 30 25 20 5
Poverty
Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a day
(PPP) (%)
Reference year: 2010
76 55 40 25 10 0
Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 52 111 232 452 2,483
Inland waterway freight
transport
bln ton-km 5 8 23 53 108 695
Inland waterway freight
transport
Modal share (%) 14 15 21 23 24 28
Land use developments
2010
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Agriculture land % surface area 60 -- -- -- - 0
Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 ++ ++ ++ ++ +
Rural settlements % surface area 12 -- -- -- -- --
Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 -- - - 0 +
Quantification of Socio-Economic Developments - Productive Scenario
Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation
baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Climate change Productive scenario 2015
(reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100
Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 7100 10-20 15-25 20-30 40-60
Temperature
Mean max temperature
degrees change (˚C)
25 +0.5 +0.75 +1 +2
Monsoon rainfall
% change mean total
monsoon (June-September)
precipitation
1750 0 5 10 15
Dry season rainfall
% change mean total dry
season (December-February)
precipitation
36 0 0 0 0
Longest dry day period
Increase of mean number of
consecutive dry days
0 0 0 +5
Rainfall intensity
% change of mean total
precipitation
10 10 10 20
Cyclone intensity % change 25 45 90
Climate change - Productive Scenario
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Peak discharges - Productive Scenario
Peak Discharges Productive Scenario 2015
(reference
, m3/s)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Ganges
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Hardinge Bridge
51 130 15 20 30
Brahmaputra
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bahadurabad
67 490 5 10 15
Meghna
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bhairab bazar
13 370 5 10 15
Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Upstream Abstractions Productive Scenario 2015
(reference,
m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Hardinge Bridge
NA
controlled by Ganges
Water Treaty
Average dry season
flow
m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750
controlled by Ganges
Water Treaty
Brahmaputra
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Bahadurabad
3 000 -5% -15% -30%
Average dry season
flow Brahmaputra
m3/s at Bahadurabad 3 000 2 850 2 550 2 100
Upstream abstractions - Productive Scenario
Source for Reference values: IWM, BWDB
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Resilient Scenario 2015
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Population Million inhabitants 169 171 175 174 170 125
Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 34 38 45 54 60 75
GDP Growth
Average annual real GDP growth
rates (%)
6.3 6.4 6.5 5.8 5.0 2.5
GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 1,105 2,008 3,469 5,723 30,000
Agricultural sector share
GDP contribution agricultural sector
(%)
16 15 13 12 10 8
Agriculture employment
share
% of people employed in agriculture
sector
47 42 35 30 25 10
Poverty
Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a
day (PPP) (%) Reference year: 2010
76 60 45 30 20 2
Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 49 91 160 267 973
Inland waterway freight
transport
bln ton-km 5 7 16 30 53 243
Inland waterway freight
transport
Modal share (%) 14 14 18 19 20 25
Land use developments
2010
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Agriculture land % surface area 60 - - - 0 +
Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 + + + + +
Rural settlements % surface area 12 - - - - --
Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 - - 0 + +
Quantification Socio-Economic Developments - Resilient Scenario
Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and
transportation baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Climate change Resilient scenario 2015
(reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100
Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 15-30 30-40 40-60 80-125
Temperature
Mean max temperature
degrees change (˚C)
25 +1.5 +1.75 +2 +4
Monsoon rainfall
% change mean total
monsoon (June-September)
precipitation
1750 15 18 20 40
Dry season rainfall
% change mean total dry
season (December-
February) precipitation
36 -10 -10 -10 -20
Longest dry day period
Increase of mean number
of consecutive dry days
+5 +8 +10 +20
Rainfall intensity
% change of mean total
precipitation
20 20 20 50
Cyclone intensity % change 70 90 100
Climate change - Resilient Scenario
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Peak discharges - resilient scenario
Peak Discharges Resilience Scenario 2015
(reference, m3/s)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Ganges
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Hardinge Bridge
51 130 30 40 70
Brahmaputra
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bahadurabad
67 490 15 20 30
Meghna
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bhairab bazar
13 370 15 20 30
Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Upstream Abstractions Resilient Scenario 2015
(reference,
m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Hardinge Bridge
750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Brahmaputra
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Bahadurabad
3000 -15% -30% -50%
Average dry season flow
Brahmaputra
m3/s at Bahadurabad 3000 2550 2100 1500
Upstream abstractions - resilient scenario
Source references values: IWM, BWDB
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Congestion Scenario 2015
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Population Million inhabitants 169 177 188 200 210 190
Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 34 35 40 46 52 70
GDP Growth
Average annual real GDP growth
rates (%)
6.3 6.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 1.5
GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 1048 1685 2519 3585 12000
Agricultural sector share
GDP contribution agricultural sector
(%)
16 16 15 14 13 10
Agriculture employment
share
% of people employed in agriculture
sector
47 47 46 45 45 35
Poverty
Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a
day (PPP) (%)
Reference year: 2010
76 65 55 50 40 10
Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 48 82 131 195 590
Inland waterway freight
transport
bln ton-km 5 6 11 20 31 112
Inland waterway freight
transport
Modal share (%) 14 11 10 10 11 12
Land use developments
2010
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Agriculture land % surface area 60 - - - - -
Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 + + + + +
Rural settlements % surface area 12 + + + + -
Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 -- -- -- -- -
Quantification Socio-Economic Developments - Congestion Scenario
Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and
transportation baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Climate change Congestion scenario 2015
(reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100
Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 7100 10-20 15-25 20-30 40-60
Temperature
Mean max temperature degrees
change (˚C)
25 +0.5 +0.75 +1 +2
Monsoon rainfall
% change mean total monsoon
(June-September) precipitation
1750 0 5 10 15
Dry season rainfall
% change mean total dry season
(December-February)
precipitation
36 0 0 0 0
Longest dry day period Increase of mean number of
consecutive dry days
0 0 0 +5
Rainfall intensity % change of mean total
precipitation
10 10 10 20
Cyclone intensity % change 25 45 90
Climate Change - Congestion Scenario
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-
Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Peak Discharges Congestion Scenario 2015
(reference,
m3/s)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Ganges
Peak discharge
% change of mean annual
maximum at Hardinge
Bridge
51 130 15 18 20 30
Brahmaputra
Peak discharge % change of mean annual
maximum at Bahadurabad
67 490 5 10 15
Meghna
Peak discharge
% change of mean annual
maximum at Bhairab
bazar
13 370 5 10 15
Peak Discharges - Congestion Scenario
Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Upstream Abstractions Congestion Scenario 2015
(reference,
m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Hardinge Bridge
750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Brahmaputra
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Bahadurabad
3000 -10% -25% -40%
Average dry season flow
Brahmaputra
m3/s at Bahadurabad 3000 2700 2250 1800
Upstream Abstractions - Congestion Scenario
Source reference values: IWM, BWDB
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Stagnation Scenario 2015
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Population Million inhabitants 169 180 197 217 230 260
Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 34 35 39 44 48 60
GDP Growth
Average annual real GDP growth
rates (%)
6.3 4.9 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0
GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 978 1 323 1 611 1 893 4 506
Agricultural sector share
GDP contribution agricultural sector
(%)
16 16 16 15 15 14
Agriculture employment
share
% of people employed in agriculture
sector
47 48 50 50 47 40
Poverty
Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a
day (PPP) (%)
Reference year: 2010
76 70 65 60 50 20
Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 46 68 91 113 304
Inland waterway freight
transport
bln ton-km 5 5 7 9 12 36
Inland waterway freight
transport
Modal share (%) 14 11 10 10 11 12
Land use developments 2010 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Agriculture land % surface area 60 -- -- -- -- --
Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 + + + + +
Rural settlements % surface area 12 ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 -- -- -- -- -
Quantification Socio-Economic Developments - Stagnation Scenario
Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation
baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Climate change Stagnation scenario 2015
(reference)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 7100 15-30 30-40 40-60 80-125
Temperature
Mean max temperature
degrees change (˚C)
25 +1.5 +1.75 +2 +4
Monsoon rainfall
% change mean total monsoon
(June-September) precipitation
1750 15 18 20 40
Dry season rainfall
% change mean total dry
season (December-February)
precipitation
36 -10 -10 -10 -20
Longest dry day period Increase of mean number of
consecutive dry days
+5 +8 +10 +20
Rainfall intensity % change of mean total
precipitation
20 20 20 50
Cyclone intensity % change 70 90 100
Climate Change - Stagnation Scenario
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-
Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Peak Discharges Stagnation Scenario 2015
(reference, m3/s)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Ganges
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Hardinge Bridge
51 130 30 40 70
Brahmaputra
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bahadurabad
67 490 15 20 30
Meghna
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bhairab bazar
13 370 15 20 30
Peak Discharges - Stagnation Scenario
Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Upstream Abstractions Stagnation Scenario 2015
(reference,
m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Change Average dry season
flow
% change (minus) at Hardinge
Bridge
750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty
Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty
Brahmaputra
Change Average dry season
flow
% change (minus) at
Bahadurabad
3 000 -20% -40% -60%
Average dry season flow
Brahmaputra
m3/s at Bahadurabad 3 000 2400 1800 1200
Upstream Abstractions - Stagnation Scenario
Source reference values: IWM, BWDB SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Quantification Socio-Economic Developments- All Scenarios
Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation baseline studies of
BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)
Socio-economic developments 2015
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Population
Million inhabitants
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
169
169
169
169
175
171
173
174
185
175
188
197
194
174
200
217
200
170
210
230
165
125
190
260
Urbanization
urban inhabitants (%)
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
34
34
34
34
38
38
35
35
49
45
40
39
58
54
46
44
70
60
52
48
85
75
70
60
GDP Growth
Average annual real GDP growth rates (%)
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
7.7
6.4
6.0
4.9
8.0
6.5
5.0
4.0
7.5
5.8
4.5
3.0
6.8
5.0
4.0
2.0
3.0
2.5
1.5
2.0
GDP per capita
Constant prices of 2010 ($)
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
820
820
820
820
1147
1105
1048
978
2322
2008
1685
1323
4606
3469
2519
1611
8707
5723
3585
1893
58000
30000
12000
4500
Agricultural share GDP
GDP contribution agricultural sector (%)
Reference year: 2014
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
16
16
16
16
15
15
16
16
12
13
15
16
10
12
14
15
8
10
13
15
5
8
10
14
Agriculture employment share
% of people employed in agriculture sector
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
47
47
47
47
40
42
47
48
30
35
46
50
25
30
45
50
20
25
45
47
5
10
35
40
Continued
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Quantification Land Use Developments- All Scenarios
Land use developments 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Agriculture land
% surface area
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
60
60
60
60
--
-
-
--
--
-
-
--
--
-
-
--
-
0
-
--
0
+
-
--
Urban / industrial land
% surface area
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
3
3
3
3
++
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Rural settlements
% surface area
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
12
12
12
12
--
-
+
++
--
-
+
++
--
-
+
++
--
-
+
++
--
--
-
++
Mangrove / forests
% surface area
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
10
10
10
10
--
-
--
--
-
-
--
--
-
0
--
--
0
+
--
--
+
+
-
-
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Population Developments - All Scenarios
GDP per capita development until 2050 - all scenarios
Continued
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Climate change 2015
(reference)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Sea level rise
Mean sea level rise in cm
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
7100
7100
7100
7100
10-20
15-30
10-20
15-30
15-25
30-40
15-25
30-40
20-30
40-60
20-30
40-60
40-60
80-125
40-60
80-125
Temperature
Mean max temperature degrees change (˚C)
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
25
25
25
25
+0.5
+1.5
+0.5
+1.5
+0.75
+1.75
+0.75
+1.75
+1
+2
+1
+2
+2
+4
+2
+4
Monsoon rainfall
% change mean total monsoon (June-
September) precipitation
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
1750
1750
1750
1750
0
15
0
20
5
18
5
18
10
20
10
20
15
40
15
40
Dry season rainfall
% change mean total dry season
(December-February) precipitation
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
36
36
36
36
0
-10
0
-10
0
-10
0
-10
0
-10
0
-10
0
-20
0
-20
Longest dry day period
Increase of mean number of consecutive
dry days
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
0
+5
0
+5
0
+8
0
+8
0
+10
0
+10
+5
+20
+5
+20
Rainfall intensity
% change of mean total precipitation
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
20
50
20
50
Cyclone intensity
% change
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
?
?
?
?
25
70
25
70
45
90
45
90
90
100
90
100
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013
Quantification of Climate change - All Scenario
Continued
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Peak Discharges Scenario 2015
(reference, m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Peak discharge
% change of mean annual maximum at
Hardinge Bridge
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
51130
51130
51130
51130
15
30
15
30
20
40
20
40
30
70
30
70
Brahmaputra
Peak discharge
% change of mean annual maximum at
Bahadurabad
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
67490
67490
67490
67490
5
15
5
15
10
20
10
20
15
30
15
30
Meghna
Peak discharge
% change of mean annual maximum at
Bhairab bazar
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
13370
13370
13370
13370
5
15
5
15
10
20
10
20
15
30
15
30
Quantification Peak Discharges - All Scenarios
Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Upstream Abstractions Scenario 2015
(reference, m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Change Average dry season flow
% change (minus) at Hardinge Bridge
Productive 750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Resilient 750
Congestion 750
Stagnation 750
Average dry season flow
m3/s at Hardinge Bridge
Productive 750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Resilient 750
Congestion 750
Stagnation 750
Brahmaputra
Change Average dry season flow
% change (minus) at Bahadurabad
Productive 3000 -5% -15% -30%
Resilient 3000 -15% -30% -50%
Congestion 3000 -10% -25% -40%
Stagnation 3000 -20% -40% -60%
Average dry season flow Brahmaputra
m3/s at Bahadurabad
Productive 3000 2850 2550 2100
Resilient 3000 2550 2100 1500
Congestion 3000 2700 2250 1800
Stagnation 3000 2400 1800 1200
Upstream Abstractions - All Scenarios
Source reference values: IWM, BWDB
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
• Very high economic growth
• Moderate climate change
• Strongly globalized and diversified economy with many shared
interests between riparian countries
• Low to moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to
medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term
(2050 – 2100)
• Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge
development
• Trans-boundary agreements for main and regional rivers
• Joint water development projects in upstream catchments
PRODUCTIVE
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
• High economic growth
• High climate change
• Moderately diversified economy, strong agri-sector, moderate
shared interests between riparian countries
• Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium
in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 –
2100)
• Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development
• Trans-boundary agreements for main rivers
• Joint water development projects in upstream catchments
RESILIENT
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
• Low but stable economic growth
• Moderate climate change
• Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between
riparian countries
• Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium
in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 –
2100)
• Little to medium data sharing and joint (water) knowledge
development
• Extension of Ganges treaty only
CONGESTION
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
• Low and decreasing economic growth
• High climate change
• Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between
riparian countries
• Moderate to high increase in upstream abstraction from medium in
the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100)
• Little data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development
• Extension of Ganges treaty only
STAGNATION
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
Scenario Planning Process
Copyright Bandudeltas - 201
Approach towards BDP scenarios
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

NAP process and Bangladesh
NAP process and BangladeshNAP process and Bangladesh
NAP process and BangladeshNAP Events
 
Land use planning system in bangladesh
Land use planning system in bangladeshLand use planning system in bangladesh
Land use planning system in bangladeshSJ Ohi
 
Presentation on bangladesh environmental policy (1992)
Presentation on  bangladesh environmental policy (1992)Presentation on  bangladesh environmental policy (1992)
Presentation on bangladesh environmental policy (1992)Parves Khan
 
Institutional framework of environmental management in bangladesh
Institutional framework of environmental management in bangladeshInstitutional framework of environmental management in bangladesh
Institutional framework of environmental management in bangladeshSamiSharmin
 
policies and legislation related to coastal zone management of bangladesh
policies and legislation related to coastal zone management of bangladeshpolicies and legislation related to coastal zone management of bangladesh
policies and legislation related to coastal zone management of bangladeshinjamamun
 
Present Status of Floodplain in Bangladesh
Present Status of Floodplain in Bangladesh Present Status of Floodplain in Bangladesh
Present Status of Floodplain in Bangladesh Mohammad Rashidul Islam
 
Climate change and bangladesh 2050
Climate change and bangladesh 2050Climate change and bangladesh 2050
Climate change and bangladesh 2050Naima Zakaria
 
Analysis and Review of EIA of Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project in Bangladesh
Analysis and Review of EIA of Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project in BangladeshAnalysis and Review of EIA of Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project in Bangladesh
Analysis and Review of EIA of Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project in BangladeshRituSaha3
 
Environmental impact assessment and importance of effective application in ba...
Environmental impact assessment and importance of effective application in ba...Environmental impact assessment and importance of effective application in ba...
Environmental impact assessment and importance of effective application in ba...MdHaque78
 
Sustainable development in BD
Sustainable development in BDSustainable development in BD
Sustainable development in BDNadia Ayman
 
Status and strategies for wetland management in Bangladesh- Arifuzzaman arif
Status and strategies for wetland management in Bangladesh- Arifuzzaman arifStatus and strategies for wetland management in Bangladesh- Arifuzzaman arif
Status and strategies for wetland management in Bangladesh- Arifuzzaman arifMd. Arifuzzaman Arif
 
Laws and Policies on Climate Change in Bangladesh
Laws and Policies on Climate Change in BangladeshLaws and Policies on Climate Change in Bangladesh
Laws and Policies on Climate Change in BangladeshPreeti Sikder
 
Lecture-2 Environmental Laws and Policies in Bangladesh - Copy
Lecture-2 Environmental Laws and Policies in Bangladesh - CopyLecture-2 Environmental Laws and Policies in Bangladesh - Copy
Lecture-2 Environmental Laws and Policies in Bangladesh - CopyShankor Paul
 

Mais procurados (20)

NAP process and Bangladesh
NAP process and BangladeshNAP process and Bangladesh
NAP process and Bangladesh
 
Land use planning system in bangladesh
Land use planning system in bangladeshLand use planning system in bangladesh
Land use planning system in bangladesh
 
Presentation on bangladesh environmental policy (1992)
Presentation on  bangladesh environmental policy (1992)Presentation on  bangladesh environmental policy (1992)
Presentation on bangladesh environmental policy (1992)
 
Institutional framework of environmental management in bangladesh
Institutional framework of environmental management in bangladeshInstitutional framework of environmental management in bangladesh
Institutional framework of environmental management in bangladesh
 
policies and legislation related to coastal zone management of bangladesh
policies and legislation related to coastal zone management of bangladeshpolicies and legislation related to coastal zone management of bangladesh
policies and legislation related to coastal zone management of bangladesh
 
Wetlands of bangladesh
Wetlands of bangladeshWetlands of bangladesh
Wetlands of bangladesh
 
Present Status of Floodplain in Bangladesh
Present Status of Floodplain in Bangladesh Present Status of Floodplain in Bangladesh
Present Status of Floodplain in Bangladesh
 
BDP 2100.pptx
BDP 2100.pptxBDP 2100.pptx
BDP 2100.pptx
 
Climate change and bangladesh 2050
Climate change and bangladesh 2050Climate change and bangladesh 2050
Climate change and bangladesh 2050
 
Analysis and Review of EIA of Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project in Bangladesh
Analysis and Review of EIA of Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project in BangladeshAnalysis and Review of EIA of Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project in Bangladesh
Analysis and Review of EIA of Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project in Bangladesh
 
Lake restoration
Lake restorationLake restoration
Lake restoration
 
Environmental impact assessment and importance of effective application in ba...
Environmental impact assessment and importance of effective application in ba...Environmental impact assessment and importance of effective application in ba...
Environmental impact assessment and importance of effective application in ba...
 
Rural land use of bangladesh
Rural land use of bangladeshRural land use of bangladesh
Rural land use of bangladesh
 
Geography and Environmental Setting of Bangladesh
Geography and Environmental Setting of BangladeshGeography and Environmental Setting of Bangladesh
Geography and Environmental Setting of Bangladesh
 
Sustainable development in BD
Sustainable development in BDSustainable development in BD
Sustainable development in BD
 
Status and strategies for wetland management in Bangladesh- Arifuzzaman arif
Status and strategies for wetland management in Bangladesh- Arifuzzaman arifStatus and strategies for wetland management in Bangladesh- Arifuzzaman arif
Status and strategies for wetland management in Bangladesh- Arifuzzaman arif
 
Flood Management in Bangladesh
Flood Management in Bangladesh Flood Management in Bangladesh
Flood Management in Bangladesh
 
Laws and Policies on Climate Change in Bangladesh
Laws and Policies on Climate Change in BangladeshLaws and Policies on Climate Change in Bangladesh
Laws and Policies on Climate Change in Bangladesh
 
Introduction to IWRM
Introduction to IWRM Introduction to IWRM
Introduction to IWRM
 
Lecture-2 Environmental Laws and Policies in Bangladesh - Copy
Lecture-2 Environmental Laws and Policies in Bangladesh - CopyLecture-2 Environmental Laws and Policies in Bangladesh - Copy
Lecture-2 Environmental Laws and Policies in Bangladesh - Copy
 

Semelhante a Scenarios of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 by Dr. Taibur Rahman

A holistic approach to understand and implement IWRM
A holistic approach to understand and implement IWRMA holistic approach to understand and implement IWRM
A holistic approach to understand and implement IWRMZohuruzzamanJyoti
 
Bangladesh delta plan 2100.pptx
Bangladesh delta plan 2100.pptxBangladesh delta plan 2100.pptx
Bangladesh delta plan 2100.pptxMdFahimSS
 
NAP Expo 2015 Session III, II Ecosystem based adaptation Namibia
NAP Expo 2015 Session III, II Ecosystem based adaptation NamibiaNAP Expo 2015 Session III, II Ecosystem based adaptation Namibia
NAP Expo 2015 Session III, II Ecosystem based adaptation NamibiaNAP Events
 
CSA Symposium 2016 - Dr. Orville Grey
CSA Symposium 2016 - Dr. Orville GreyCSA Symposium 2016 - Dr. Orville Grey
CSA Symposium 2016 - Dr. Orville GreyACDI/VOCA
 
Achieving Water Security in Asia and the Pacific: Asian Water Development Out...
Achieving Water Security in Asia and the Pacific: Asian Water Development Out...Achieving Water Security in Asia and the Pacific: Asian Water Development Out...
Achieving Water Security in Asia and the Pacific: Asian Water Development Out...OECDregions
 
IWRM in Karnataka India. Crafting a New Future
IWRM in Karnataka India. Crafting a New FutureIWRM in Karnataka India. Crafting a New Future
IWRM in Karnataka India. Crafting a New FutureOswar Mungkasa
 
Workshop WCP WACREP south asia_lal induruwage_1 sep
Workshop WCP WACREP south asia_lal induruwage_1 sepWorkshop WCP WACREP south asia_lal induruwage_1 sep
Workshop WCP WACREP south asia_lal induruwage_1 sepGlobal Water Partnership
 
9.1.2. Public presentation of country NAPs - Togo
9.1.2. Public presentation of country NAPs - Togo9.1.2. Public presentation of country NAPs - Togo
9.1.2. Public presentation of country NAPs - TogoNAP Events
 
Dr teshome increasing water accessibility - shorter (2)
Dr teshome   increasing water accessibility -  shorter (2)Dr teshome   increasing water accessibility -  shorter (2)
Dr teshome increasing water accessibility - shorter (2)Karen157
 
Presentation - 9th Roundtable on Financing water - Amgad Elmahdi
Presentation - 9th Roundtable on Financing water - Amgad ElmahdiPresentation - 9th Roundtable on Financing water - Amgad Elmahdi
Presentation - 9th Roundtable on Financing water - Amgad ElmahdiOECD Environment
 
10th Roundtable on Financing Water–PPT Session 3-Slav Gatchev
10th Roundtable on Financing Water–PPT Session 3-Slav Gatchev10th Roundtable on Financing Water–PPT Session 3-Slav Gatchev
10th Roundtable on Financing Water–PPT Session 3-Slav GatchevOECD Environment
 
Cambodia finacing water resources management in cambodia report (1) copy
Cambodia  finacing water resources management in cambodia report (1)   copyCambodia  finacing water resources management in cambodia report (1)   copy
Cambodia finacing water resources management in cambodia report (1) copyGWP SOUTHEAST ASIA
 
Water Resources Management Financing in cambodia
Water Resources Management Financing in cambodiaWater Resources Management Financing in cambodia
Water Resources Management Financing in cambodiaGWP SOUTHEAST ASIA
 
Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience | Water in the Oil & Gas Sector
Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience | Water in the Oil & Gas SectorClimate Change Adaptation and Resilience | Water in the Oil & Gas Sector
Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience | Water in the Oil & Gas SectorAdvisian
 
Impacts of Climate Change
Impacts of Climate ChangeImpacts of Climate Change
Impacts of Climate ChangeACX
 
Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)
Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)
Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)Trevor Glue
 
Lessons on Alignment from the NAP Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP) in Bhutan
Lessons on Alignment from the NAP Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP) in BhutanLessons on Alignment from the NAP Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP) in Bhutan
Lessons on Alignment from the NAP Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP) in BhutanNAP Global Network
 

Semelhante a Scenarios of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 by Dr. Taibur Rahman (20)

A holistic approach to understand and implement IWRM
A holistic approach to understand and implement IWRMA holistic approach to understand and implement IWRM
A holistic approach to understand and implement IWRM
 
Bangladesh delta plan 2100.pptx
Bangladesh delta plan 2100.pptxBangladesh delta plan 2100.pptx
Bangladesh delta plan 2100.pptx
 
IFPRI - NAES Conference on Sustainable & Resilient Agriculture - Zahurul Kari...
IFPRI - NAES Conference on Sustainable & Resilient Agriculture - Zahurul Kari...IFPRI - NAES Conference on Sustainable & Resilient Agriculture - Zahurul Kari...
IFPRI - NAES Conference on Sustainable & Resilient Agriculture - Zahurul Kari...
 
NAP Expo 2015 Session III, II Ecosystem based adaptation Namibia
NAP Expo 2015 Session III, II Ecosystem based adaptation NamibiaNAP Expo 2015 Session III, II Ecosystem based adaptation Namibia
NAP Expo 2015 Session III, II Ecosystem based adaptation Namibia
 
CSA Symposium 2016 - Dr. Orville Grey
CSA Symposium 2016 - Dr. Orville GreyCSA Symposium 2016 - Dr. Orville Grey
CSA Symposium 2016 - Dr. Orville Grey
 
Achieving Water Security in Asia and the Pacific: Asian Water Development Out...
Achieving Water Security in Asia and the Pacific: Asian Water Development Out...Achieving Water Security in Asia and the Pacific: Asian Water Development Out...
Achieving Water Security in Asia and the Pacific: Asian Water Development Out...
 
IWRM in Karnataka India. Crafting a New Future
IWRM in Karnataka India. Crafting a New FutureIWRM in Karnataka India. Crafting a New Future
IWRM in Karnataka India. Crafting a New Future
 
Workshop WCP WACREP south asia_lal induruwage_1 sep
Workshop WCP WACREP south asia_lal induruwage_1 sepWorkshop WCP WACREP south asia_lal induruwage_1 sep
Workshop WCP WACREP south asia_lal induruwage_1 sep
 
introduction iwrm
introduction iwrmintroduction iwrm
introduction iwrm
 
9.1.2. Public presentation of country NAPs - Togo
9.1.2. Public presentation of country NAPs - Togo9.1.2. Public presentation of country NAPs - Togo
9.1.2. Public presentation of country NAPs - Togo
 
Dr teshome increasing water accessibility - shorter (2)
Dr teshome   increasing water accessibility -  shorter (2)Dr teshome   increasing water accessibility -  shorter (2)
Dr teshome increasing water accessibility - shorter (2)
 
Presentation - 9th Roundtable on Financing water - Amgad Elmahdi
Presentation - 9th Roundtable on Financing water - Amgad ElmahdiPresentation - 9th Roundtable on Financing water - Amgad Elmahdi
Presentation - 9th Roundtable on Financing water - Amgad Elmahdi
 
10th Roundtable on Financing Water–PPT Session 3-Slav Gatchev
10th Roundtable on Financing Water–PPT Session 3-Slav Gatchev10th Roundtable on Financing Water–PPT Session 3-Slav Gatchev
10th Roundtable on Financing Water–PPT Session 3-Slav Gatchev
 
Cambodia finacing water resources management in cambodia report (1) copy
Cambodia  finacing water resources management in cambodia report (1)   copyCambodia  finacing water resources management in cambodia report (1)   copy
Cambodia finacing water resources management in cambodia report (1) copy
 
Water Resources Management Financing in cambodia
Water Resources Management Financing in cambodiaWater Resources Management Financing in cambodia
Water Resources Management Financing in cambodia
 
Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience | Water in the Oil & Gas Sector
Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience | Water in the Oil & Gas SectorClimate Change Adaptation and Resilience | Water in the Oil & Gas Sector
Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience | Water in the Oil & Gas Sector
 
Impacts of Climate Change
Impacts of Climate ChangeImpacts of Climate Change
Impacts of Climate Change
 
7. Cox1
7. Cox17. Cox1
7. Cox1
 
Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)
Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)
Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)
 
Lessons on Alignment from the NAP Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP) in Bhutan
Lessons on Alignment from the NAP Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP) in BhutanLessons on Alignment from the NAP Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP) in Bhutan
Lessons on Alignment from the NAP Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP) in Bhutan
 

Último

PPT TLE 7 and 8 Q3 AGRI CROP QUIZ 2.pptx
PPT TLE 7 and 8  Q3 AGRI CROP QUIZ 2.pptxPPT TLE 7 and 8  Q3 AGRI CROP QUIZ 2.pptx
PPT TLE 7 and 8 Q3 AGRI CROP QUIZ 2.pptxCrislynBaados
 
Third OECD-DOE Workshop Photo slide show.pdf
Third OECD-DOE Workshop Photo slide show.pdfThird OECD-DOE Workshop Photo slide show.pdf
Third OECD-DOE Workshop Photo slide show.pdfOECD Environment
 
Item 6. Revision and consolidation of energy-related legal instruments
Item 6. Revision and consolidation of energy-related legal instrumentsItem 6. Revision and consolidation of energy-related legal instruments
Item 6. Revision and consolidation of energy-related legal instrumentsOECD Environment
 
I MSc II Semester - Characteristics of a population.ppt
I MSc II Semester - Characteristics of a population.pptI MSc II Semester - Characteristics of a population.ppt
I MSc II Semester - Characteristics of a population.pptaigil2
 
The Dark Cloud of Global Air Pollution - Epcon
The Dark Cloud of Global Air Pollution - EpconThe Dark Cloud of Global Air Pollution - Epcon
The Dark Cloud of Global Air Pollution - EpconEpconLP
 
Pathways to sustainable trade and system dynamic simulation
Pathways to sustainable trade and system dynamic simulationPathways to sustainable trade and system dynamic simulation
Pathways to sustainable trade and system dynamic simulationCIFOR-ICRAF
 
Best-NO1 Best Black Magic Specialist Near Me Spiritual Healer Powerful Love S...
Best-NO1 Best Black Magic Specialist Near Me Spiritual Healer Powerful Love S...Best-NO1 Best Black Magic Specialist Near Me Spiritual Healer Powerful Love S...
Best-NO1 Best Black Magic Specialist Near Me Spiritual Healer Powerful Love S...Amil baba
 
Purva Tranquillity best living place in East Bangalore
Purva Tranquillity best living place in East BangalorePurva Tranquillity best living place in East Bangalore
Purva Tranquillity best living place in East BangaloreNikki Harris
 
Item 2. a Update from the Secretariat
Item 2. a Update from the SecretariatItem 2. a Update from the Secretariat
Item 2. a Update from the SecretariatOECD Environment
 
Narrative Report on 3rd NNational Simultaneous Earthquake Drill2023.docx
Narrative Report on 3rd NNational Simultaneous Earthquake Drill2023.docxNarrative Report on 3rd NNational Simultaneous Earthquake Drill2023.docx
Narrative Report on 3rd NNational Simultaneous Earthquake Drill2023.docxJeneroseBaldoza
 
Personal Protective Equipment OSHA Regulations
Personal Protective Equipment OSHA RegulationsPersonal Protective Equipment OSHA Regulations
Personal Protective Equipment OSHA RegulationsATI Construction Products
 
Capacity Building in oil palm trade and sustainability
Capacity Building in oil palm trade and sustainabilityCapacity Building in oil palm trade and sustainability
Capacity Building in oil palm trade and sustainabilityCIFOR-ICRAF
 
EC-funded Projects and CAPs Webinar slides
EC-funded Projects and CAPs Webinar slidesEC-funded Projects and CAPs Webinar slides
EC-funded Projects and CAPs Webinar slidesweADAPT
 
Green Horizons: Ecotourism Conference 2024 in Amsterdam
Green Horizons: Ecotourism Conference 2024 in AmsterdamGreen Horizons: Ecotourism Conference 2024 in Amsterdam
Green Horizons: Ecotourism Conference 2024 in AmsterdamDIGITALCONFEX
 
How do TOPCon Solar Cells/Solar Panel Work?
How do TOPCon Solar Cells/Solar Panel Work?How do TOPCon Solar Cells/Solar Panel Work?
How do TOPCon Solar Cells/Solar Panel Work?Bluebird Solar Pvt. Ltd.
 
How Long Does It Take Jackfruit To Bear Fruit?
How Long Does It Take Jackfruit To Bear Fruit?How Long Does It Take Jackfruit To Bear Fruit?
How Long Does It Take Jackfruit To Bear Fruit?EvergladesFarm
 
Supporting Farmer Transition to Produce Deforestation-Free Coffee
Supporting Farmer Transition to Produce Deforestation-Free CoffeeSupporting Farmer Transition to Produce Deforestation-Free Coffee
Supporting Farmer Transition to Produce Deforestation-Free CoffeeCIFOR-ICRAF
 
"Solid waste Fill Site Analysis: Proximities & Parameters"
"Solid waste Fill Site Analysis: Proximities & Parameters""Solid waste Fill Site Analysis: Proximities & Parameters"
"Solid waste Fill Site Analysis: Proximities & Parameters"KeerthireddyNussi
 
Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26
Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26
Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26OECD Environment
 
Item 7. Discussion on PWB 2023-24 work related to adaptation
Item 7. Discussion on PWB 2023-24 work related to adaptationItem 7. Discussion on PWB 2023-24 work related to adaptation
Item 7. Discussion on PWB 2023-24 work related to adaptationOECD Environment
 

Último (20)

PPT TLE 7 and 8 Q3 AGRI CROP QUIZ 2.pptx
PPT TLE 7 and 8  Q3 AGRI CROP QUIZ 2.pptxPPT TLE 7 and 8  Q3 AGRI CROP QUIZ 2.pptx
PPT TLE 7 and 8 Q3 AGRI CROP QUIZ 2.pptx
 
Third OECD-DOE Workshop Photo slide show.pdf
Third OECD-DOE Workshop Photo slide show.pdfThird OECD-DOE Workshop Photo slide show.pdf
Third OECD-DOE Workshop Photo slide show.pdf
 
Item 6. Revision and consolidation of energy-related legal instruments
Item 6. Revision and consolidation of energy-related legal instrumentsItem 6. Revision and consolidation of energy-related legal instruments
Item 6. Revision and consolidation of energy-related legal instruments
 
I MSc II Semester - Characteristics of a population.ppt
I MSc II Semester - Characteristics of a population.pptI MSc II Semester - Characteristics of a population.ppt
I MSc II Semester - Characteristics of a population.ppt
 
The Dark Cloud of Global Air Pollution - Epcon
The Dark Cloud of Global Air Pollution - EpconThe Dark Cloud of Global Air Pollution - Epcon
The Dark Cloud of Global Air Pollution - Epcon
 
Pathways to sustainable trade and system dynamic simulation
Pathways to sustainable trade and system dynamic simulationPathways to sustainable trade and system dynamic simulation
Pathways to sustainable trade and system dynamic simulation
 
Best-NO1 Best Black Magic Specialist Near Me Spiritual Healer Powerful Love S...
Best-NO1 Best Black Magic Specialist Near Me Spiritual Healer Powerful Love S...Best-NO1 Best Black Magic Specialist Near Me Spiritual Healer Powerful Love S...
Best-NO1 Best Black Magic Specialist Near Me Spiritual Healer Powerful Love S...
 
Purva Tranquillity best living place in East Bangalore
Purva Tranquillity best living place in East BangalorePurva Tranquillity best living place in East Bangalore
Purva Tranquillity best living place in East Bangalore
 
Item 2. a Update from the Secretariat
Item 2. a Update from the SecretariatItem 2. a Update from the Secretariat
Item 2. a Update from the Secretariat
 
Narrative Report on 3rd NNational Simultaneous Earthquake Drill2023.docx
Narrative Report on 3rd NNational Simultaneous Earthquake Drill2023.docxNarrative Report on 3rd NNational Simultaneous Earthquake Drill2023.docx
Narrative Report on 3rd NNational Simultaneous Earthquake Drill2023.docx
 
Personal Protective Equipment OSHA Regulations
Personal Protective Equipment OSHA RegulationsPersonal Protective Equipment OSHA Regulations
Personal Protective Equipment OSHA Regulations
 
Capacity Building in oil palm trade and sustainability
Capacity Building in oil palm trade and sustainabilityCapacity Building in oil palm trade and sustainability
Capacity Building in oil palm trade and sustainability
 
EC-funded Projects and CAPs Webinar slides
EC-funded Projects and CAPs Webinar slidesEC-funded Projects and CAPs Webinar slides
EC-funded Projects and CAPs Webinar slides
 
Green Horizons: Ecotourism Conference 2024 in Amsterdam
Green Horizons: Ecotourism Conference 2024 in AmsterdamGreen Horizons: Ecotourism Conference 2024 in Amsterdam
Green Horizons: Ecotourism Conference 2024 in Amsterdam
 
How do TOPCon Solar Cells/Solar Panel Work?
How do TOPCon Solar Cells/Solar Panel Work?How do TOPCon Solar Cells/Solar Panel Work?
How do TOPCon Solar Cells/Solar Panel Work?
 
How Long Does It Take Jackfruit To Bear Fruit?
How Long Does It Take Jackfruit To Bear Fruit?How Long Does It Take Jackfruit To Bear Fruit?
How Long Does It Take Jackfruit To Bear Fruit?
 
Supporting Farmer Transition to Produce Deforestation-Free Coffee
Supporting Farmer Transition to Produce Deforestation-Free CoffeeSupporting Farmer Transition to Produce Deforestation-Free Coffee
Supporting Farmer Transition to Produce Deforestation-Free Coffee
 
"Solid waste Fill Site Analysis: Proximities & Parameters"
"Solid waste Fill Site Analysis: Proximities & Parameters""Solid waste Fill Site Analysis: Proximities & Parameters"
"Solid waste Fill Site Analysis: Proximities & Parameters"
 
Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26
Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26
Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26
 
Item 7. Discussion on PWB 2023-24 work related to adaptation
Item 7. Discussion on PWB 2023-24 work related to adaptationItem 7. Discussion on PWB 2023-24 work related to adaptation
Item 7. Discussion on PWB 2023-24 work related to adaptation
 

Scenarios of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 by Dr. Taibur Rahman

  • 1. Bangladesh Delta Scenarios Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman trsumon@gmail.com BANGLADESH DELTA PLAN 2100 SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 2. BDP2100 Vision Ensure long term water and food security, economic growth and environmental sustainability while effectively coping with natural disasters, climate change and other delta issues through robust, adaptive and integrated strategies, and equitable water governance.
  • 3. Tentative BDP Goals Goal 1: Ensure safety from floods and climate change related disasters Goal 2: Ensure water security and efficiency of water usages Goal 3: Ensure sustainable and integrated river systems and estuaries management Goal 4: Conserve and preserve wetlands and ecosystems and promote their wise use Goal 5: Develop effective institutions and equitable governance for in country and trans-boundary water resources management Goal 6: Achieve optimal use of land and water resources Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman
  • 4. Investment and Implementation Plan Formulation of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 Monitoring & Evaluation of the BDP 2100 D E L T A A T E L I E R S & T T I N T E R A C T I O N G C Current Policy Situation Sectoral status Drivers & Problems Integrated Analysis Finalization of Baseline Studies Formulation of Delta Vision Development of Assessment Framework Scenario Development Analysis of Strategies Preferred Strategies Governance and Legal Framework Institutional Development & Capacity Building Preparation of Sectoral & Regional Arrangements Dissemination Financial Mechanisms ADAPTIVE STRATEGIESBASELINE STUDIES DELTA FRAMEWORK 7th Five Year Plan Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman
  • 5. Bangladesh Delta Scenario: Introduction • A tool for policy makers to make robust, adaptive and integrated strategies • Describe uncertain futures and identify potential impacts that have an important influence on the success or failure of a given strategy or measure • Evaluate the effectiveness of measures and strategies for each scenario, which helps decision makers to prioritize their choices • Strategies selection made easier for various possible outcomes even for ‘extreme edges’ Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman
  • 6. • Data from UN, IPCC and baseline studies utilized • Extensive stakeholder consultation • Building blocks developed in workshop at GED (Feb 2015) • Substantiated through input from experts and validation workshops • Scenarios quantification based on: – Climate change model analysis – Current and historic trend analysis – Benchmarking with comparable economies • Scenarios represent possible ‘Business as usual’ developments (continuation of current policies) • Well suited to evaluate and assess investments options as part of 5- year planning process Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman
  • 7. Bangladesh Delta Scenarios 7Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014 Diversified Economy (high per capita growth) Traditional Economy (low per capita growth) stable water conditions (limited climate change and upstream developments) Extreme water conditions (extensive climate change and upstream developments) Productive Congestion Resilient Stagnation SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 8. SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 9. Key Drivers :Upstream water development Productive Resilient • Very high economic growth • Moderate climate change • Strongly globalized and diversified economy with many shared interests between riparian countries • Low to moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100) • Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development • Trans-boundary agreements for main and regional rivers • Joint water development projects in upstream catchments • High economic growth • High climate change • Moderately diversified economy, strong agri-sector, moderate shared interests between riparian countries • Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100) • Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development • Trans-boundary agreements for main rivers • Joint water development projects in upstream catchments Congestion Stagnation • Low but stable economic growth • Moderate climate change • Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between riparian countries • Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100) • Little to medium data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development • Extension of Ganges treaty only • Low and decreasing economic growth • High climate change • Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between riparian countries • Moderate to high increase in upstream abstraction from medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100) • Little data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development • Extension of Ganges treaty only Key characteristics of upstream abstractions for each scenario ResilientProductive Congestion Stagnation SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 10. SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 11. Key Drivers: Economic Structure, International Markets and Technology Developments Key issues are: •Globalization and development of trade •Human capital development (investments) •Global market of manufactured products of Bangladesh •Level and driver of industrial development •Economic transformation •Investments in infrastructure •Digital and agricultural technology •Modernization of agricultural sector •Impact of cross-border trade SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 12. Key Drivers: Demographics, Urbanization, Land Use Changes Main issues are: •Population growth and composition •Land use changes •Level of unplanned urbanization •Decrease of agricultural land •Emergence of ‘high input, high investment, high return’ agriculture (flowers, strawberries, broccoli etc) as compared to low input low risk types of agriculture •Food security, livelihoods and poverty •Access to education •Change in consumption patterns of Bangladesh •Equality – e.g. differences between rich and poor SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 13. Key Drivers : Others • Governance and political situation • Environment SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 14. Key socio economic indicators 14Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014 Population 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population(Millions) Year productive resilient Congestion stagnation SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 15. GDP Per Capita SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 16. Land Use Selected Land Use types over time Contd…SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 17. Selected Land Use types over time Land Use SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 18. BDP2100 Delta Scenarios Summary narratives scenarios BDP2100SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 19. Scenario 1 Productive – Market Driven Delta • Moderate climate change • upstream collaboration • Market-driven economy, • focus on rapid economic growth, • private investments, • rapid technological advancement, • modernization of the agricultural sector, • Rice replaced by higher value crops • rapid urbanization distributed across the country • Large pressures on the environment due rapid market driven development SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 20. Socio-Economic Developments Climate Change Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction Scenario 1 Productive Delta SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 21. Scenario 2 Resilient - Dynamic Delta • Rapid climate change • Limited international collaboration • sustainable economic growth, • reduction of inequality, • Vulnerable nature • modernization of agricultural through cooperatives • water guides and limits development • fast urbanisation and increased rural-urban connectivity • technological change aimed at sustainable agricultural production • emergence of agri-business hubs • Reducing pressure on environment due to sustainable development SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 22. Socio-Economic Developments Climate Change Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction Scenario 2 Resilient Delta SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 23. Scenario 3 Congestion- Delta Under Pressure • Moderate climate change • Now new upstream developments • Traditional growth with focus on low-value production, • Continuation of small scale rice-based farming • limited technological diffusion • central economy and top-down regulation, • high inequality and growing wealthy elite, • water follows development, • fast growing Dhaka & Chittagong with urban sprawl • Pressure on environment due to uncontrolled urban expansion SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 24. Socio-Economic Developments Climate Change Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction Scenario 3 Congestion Delta SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 25. Scenario 4 Stagnation Delta- Basic Needs First • Rapid climate change • Increase in hydrological extremes • more frequent and intense cyclones • Traditional growth with focus on low-value production • Focus on subsistence rice based farming • fast growing population • slow technological change • high urban and rural poverty • Limited international collaboration, increased upstream extractions • Increasing pressure on the environment due SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 26. Socio-Economic Developments Climate Change Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction Scenario 4 Stagnation Delta SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 27. Summary Overview Scenarios Socio-Economic Developments Climate Change Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction Land Use Development Population Development SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 28. Steps SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 29. Assessment of Water Related Implications Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation Ability to invest in adaptation ($) $$$$ - very high GDP growth, ample economic means $$$ - high GDP growth, adequate economic means $$ - low GDP growth, limited economic means $- very low GDP growth, severely limited economic means Floodrisk Economic damage risk High: high economic asset values / very high GDP growth, moderate CC Very high: high economic value / high GDP growth, high CC Moderate: moderate economic value / low GDP growth, moderate CC Moderate: moderate economic value / low GDP growth, high CC Rural population (and their livelihood) at risk Low: good connectivity and rapid development of rural areas (incl. chars), improved gender distribution and lower poverty level, moderate CC Moderate: good connectivity and rapid development of rural areas (incl. chars), improved gender distribution and lower poverty level, high CC High; rural isolation (incl. chars), no improvement in gender distribution and lower poverty level, moderate CC. Post flood impacts severe Very high; rural isolation (incl. chars) & bad housing, no improvement in gender distribution and lower poverty level, high CC. Severe post flood impacts Urban population (and their livelihood) at risk Low: very high GDP growth, high urbanisation level and better housing, low unemployment, moderate CC Low: high GDP growth, low urbanization level and better housing, low unemployment, high CC High: high number of informal housing, high urbanisation level, high inequality, high unemployment, moderate CC Very high: high number of informal housing, high urbanisation level, high inequality, high unemployment, high CC Critical infra & objects (e.g. roads, power supply, sanitation, ICT, schools, hospitals) at risk Moderate: critically important infrastructure and objects in flood-prone areas at highest experienced flood/storm- surge level, moderate CC High: critically important infrastructure and objects in flood-prone areas at highest experienced flood/storm-surge level, unexpected depths and areas larger through high CC Low: underdeveloped infrastructure and objects in flood-prone areas at highest experienced flood/storm- surge level, moderate CC Moderate: underdeveloped infrastructure and objects in flood- prone areas at highest experienced flood/storm-surge level, unexpected depths and areas larger through high CC Watersecurity Rural Water security Low: Agricultural water demand will stabilise due to the cultivation of higher value crops and stabilising boro rice cultivation. This in combination with relatively high availability will result in moderate scarcity. The need for reliable (timely, adequate) water supply increases notably High: Although the modernization of agriculture will over time reduce the demand, the reduction in dry season supply and increased saline intrusion will result in higher water stress Moderate: Water demands will be high under this scenario due to continued demand for irrigated boro rice and the need for food self-sufficiency. Due to continued supply water stress will be moderate Very high: Extensive salt water intrusion, frequent drought and high demand due to continuation of rice production leads to growing and severe water stress Urban water security Moderate: Urban water demands will rapidly expand due to increased urbanization and rapid industrial expansion. Due to reduced competition with agriculture, moderate CC and low upstream abstraction, urban water stress will stabilize. Water quality will become increasingly limiting for industrial and domestic use Low: Urban water demand will rapidly increase. It will be difficult to meet these needs especially in the dry season due to frequent droughts and high upstream water abstractions. In the wet season supply will become difficult due to floods and extreme weather events. Growing IW Transport sector severely constrained due to low water levels Moderate: Demand will be moderate due to low economic and urban growth although population growth will be high. Deteriorating water quality will limit water use for domestic, agricultural and industrial use Very low: Unabated water pollution and poor w water quality, in combination with frequent droughts, population increase and salt water intrusion cause severe urban water stress. Stress is mitigated due to low urbanization and industrialization rates Environment al pressures Moderate to High: Due to rapid market driven economic development, environmental pressures will initially increase. In the long run, a richer population will demand environmental protection and the economic growth will allow investment in water treatment, reuse and water saving technologies and place a higher value on ecosystems preservation. Good cooperation with upstream neighbours will enhance water quality improvement upstream High: Due to rapid market driven economic development, environment pressures will continue to increase. CC and high upstream abstraction exacerbate these pressures leading to water quality concerns; with saline intrusion as key factor The lower number of people will slightly mitigate this pressure. In the long run, a richer population will demand environmental protection; Economic growth will allow investment in water treatment, reuse and water saving technologies and place a higher value on ecosystems preservation. Good cooperation with upstream neighbours will enhance water quality High due to continued unsustainable water management, and food self- sufficiency, wetlands, rivers and coastal areas will come under increasing pressure. There is little scope for investments in environmental technologies and development Very high The high number of people in combination with high CC and high upstream water abstraction will result in very low water quality especially in the dry season. The lack of public and private funding along with limited riparian collaboration lead to very high environmental pressures SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 30. Conclusion • Four distinctive Bangladesh Delta scenarios have been developed with the aim to offer four different, plausible stories of possible future directions important for future water management • In the current phase of the BDP2100, the proposed measures and strategies are assessed against different future outcomes SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 31. www.bandudeltas.org Road # 83, House # 13/A , NE(K), Level 5 Gulshan-2, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 32. Productive Scenario 2015 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 Population Million inhabitants 169 175 185 194 200 165 Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 28 38 49 58 70 85 GDP Growth Average annual real GDP growth rates (%) 6.3 7.7 8.0 7.5 6.8 3.0 GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 1,147 2,322 4,606 8,707 58,000 Agricultural sector share GDP contribution agricultural sector (%) 16 15 12 10 8 5 Agriculture employment share % of people employed in agriculture sector 47 40 30 25 20 5 Poverty Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a day (PPP) (%) Reference year: 2010 76 55 40 25 10 0 Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 52 111 232 452 2,483 Inland waterway freight transport bln ton-km 5 8 23 53 108 695 Inland waterway freight transport Modal share (%) 14 15 21 23 24 28 Land use developments 2010 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 Agriculture land % surface area 60 -- -- -- - 0 Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 ++ ++ ++ ++ + Rural settlements % surface area 12 -- -- -- -- -- Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 -- - - 0 + Quantification of Socio-Economic Developments - Productive Scenario Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 33. Climate change Productive scenario 2015 (reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100 Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 7100 10-20 15-25 20-30 40-60 Temperature Mean max temperature degrees change (˚C) 25 +0.5 +0.75 +1 +2 Monsoon rainfall % change mean total monsoon (June-September) precipitation 1750 0 5 10 15 Dry season rainfall % change mean total dry season (December-February) precipitation 36 0 0 0 0 Longest dry day period Increase of mean number of consecutive dry days 0 0 0 +5 Rainfall intensity % change of mean total precipitation 10 10 10 20 Cyclone intensity % change 25 45 90 Climate change - Productive Scenario Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013 SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 34. Peak discharges - Productive Scenario Peak Discharges Productive Scenario 2015 (reference , m3/s) 2030 2040 2050 2100 Ganges Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Hardinge Bridge 51 130 15 20 30 Brahmaputra Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Bahadurabad 67 490 5 10 15 Meghna Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Bhairab bazar 13 370 5 10 15 Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 35. Upstream Abstractions Productive Scenario 2015 (reference, m3/s) 2030 2050 2100 Ganges Change Average dry season flow % change (minus) at Hardinge Bridge NA controlled by Ganges Water Treaty Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty Brahmaputra Change Average dry season flow % change (minus) at Bahadurabad 3 000 -5% -15% -30% Average dry season flow Brahmaputra m3/s at Bahadurabad 3 000 2 850 2 550 2 100 Upstream abstractions - Productive Scenario Source for Reference values: IWM, BWDB SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 36. Resilient Scenario 2015 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 Population Million inhabitants 169 171 175 174 170 125 Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 34 38 45 54 60 75 GDP Growth Average annual real GDP growth rates (%) 6.3 6.4 6.5 5.8 5.0 2.5 GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 1,105 2,008 3,469 5,723 30,000 Agricultural sector share GDP contribution agricultural sector (%) 16 15 13 12 10 8 Agriculture employment share % of people employed in agriculture sector 47 42 35 30 25 10 Poverty Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a day (PPP) (%) Reference year: 2010 76 60 45 30 20 2 Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 49 91 160 267 973 Inland waterway freight transport bln ton-km 5 7 16 30 53 243 Inland waterway freight transport Modal share (%) 14 14 18 19 20 25 Land use developments 2010 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 Agriculture land % surface area 60 - - - 0 + Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 + + + + + Rural settlements % surface area 12 - - - - -- Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 - - 0 + + Quantification Socio-Economic Developments - Resilient Scenario Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 37. Climate change Resilient scenario 2015 (reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100 Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 15-30 30-40 40-60 80-125 Temperature Mean max temperature degrees change (˚C) 25 +1.5 +1.75 +2 +4 Monsoon rainfall % change mean total monsoon (June-September) precipitation 1750 15 18 20 40 Dry season rainfall % change mean total dry season (December- February) precipitation 36 -10 -10 -10 -20 Longest dry day period Increase of mean number of consecutive dry days +5 +8 +10 +20 Rainfall intensity % change of mean total precipitation 20 20 20 50 Cyclone intensity % change 70 90 100 Climate change - Resilient Scenario Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013 SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 38. Peak discharges - resilient scenario Peak Discharges Resilience Scenario 2015 (reference, m3/s) 2030 2040 2050 2100 Ganges Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Hardinge Bridge 51 130 30 40 70 Brahmaputra Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Bahadurabad 67 490 15 20 30 Meghna Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Bhairab bazar 13 370 15 20 30 Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 39. Upstream Abstractions Resilient Scenario 2015 (reference, m3/s) 2030 2050 2100 Ganges Change Average dry season flow % change (minus) at Hardinge Bridge 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty Brahmaputra Change Average dry season flow % change (minus) at Bahadurabad 3000 -15% -30% -50% Average dry season flow Brahmaputra m3/s at Bahadurabad 3000 2550 2100 1500 Upstream abstractions - resilient scenario Source references values: IWM, BWDB SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 40. Congestion Scenario 2015 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 Population Million inhabitants 169 177 188 200 210 190 Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 34 35 40 46 52 70 GDP Growth Average annual real GDP growth rates (%) 6.3 6.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 1.5 GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 1048 1685 2519 3585 12000 Agricultural sector share GDP contribution agricultural sector (%) 16 16 15 14 13 10 Agriculture employment share % of people employed in agriculture sector 47 47 46 45 45 35 Poverty Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a day (PPP) (%) Reference year: 2010 76 65 55 50 40 10 Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 48 82 131 195 590 Inland waterway freight transport bln ton-km 5 6 11 20 31 112 Inland waterway freight transport Modal share (%) 14 11 10 10 11 12 Land use developments 2010 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 Agriculture land % surface area 60 - - - - - Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 + + + + + Rural settlements % surface area 12 + + + + - Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 -- -- -- -- - Quantification Socio-Economic Developments - Congestion Scenario Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 41. Climate change Congestion scenario 2015 (reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100 Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 7100 10-20 15-25 20-30 40-60 Temperature Mean max temperature degrees change (˚C) 25 +0.5 +0.75 +1 +2 Monsoon rainfall % change mean total monsoon (June-September) precipitation 1750 0 5 10 15 Dry season rainfall % change mean total dry season (December-February) precipitation 36 0 0 0 0 Longest dry day period Increase of mean number of consecutive dry days 0 0 0 +5 Rainfall intensity % change of mean total precipitation 10 10 10 20 Cyclone intensity % change 25 45 90 Climate Change - Congestion Scenario Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU- Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013 SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 42. Peak Discharges Congestion Scenario 2015 (reference, m3/s) 2030 2040 2050 2100 Ganges Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Hardinge Bridge 51 130 15 18 20 30 Brahmaputra Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Bahadurabad 67 490 5 10 15 Meghna Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Bhairab bazar 13 370 5 10 15 Peak Discharges - Congestion Scenario Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 43. Upstream Abstractions Congestion Scenario 2015 (reference, m3/s) 2030 2050 2100 Ganges Change Average dry season flow % change (minus) at Hardinge Bridge 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty Brahmaputra Change Average dry season flow % change (minus) at Bahadurabad 3000 -10% -25% -40% Average dry season flow Brahmaputra m3/s at Bahadurabad 3000 2700 2250 1800 Upstream Abstractions - Congestion Scenario Source reference values: IWM, BWDB SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 44. Stagnation Scenario 2015 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 Population Million inhabitants 169 180 197 217 230 260 Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 34 35 39 44 48 60 GDP Growth Average annual real GDP growth rates (%) 6.3 4.9 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 978 1 323 1 611 1 893 4 506 Agricultural sector share GDP contribution agricultural sector (%) 16 16 16 15 15 14 Agriculture employment share % of people employed in agriculture sector 47 48 50 50 47 40 Poverty Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a day (PPP) (%) Reference year: 2010 76 70 65 60 50 20 Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 46 68 91 113 304 Inland waterway freight transport bln ton-km 5 5 7 9 12 36 Inland waterway freight transport Modal share (%) 14 11 10 10 11 12 Land use developments 2010 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 Agriculture land % surface area 60 -- -- -- -- -- Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 + + + + + Rural settlements % surface area 12 ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 -- -- -- -- - Quantification Socio-Economic Developments - Stagnation Scenario Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 45. Climate change Stagnation scenario 2015 (reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100 Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 7100 15-30 30-40 40-60 80-125 Temperature Mean max temperature degrees change (˚C) 25 +1.5 +1.75 +2 +4 Monsoon rainfall % change mean total monsoon (June-September) precipitation 1750 15 18 20 40 Dry season rainfall % change mean total dry season (December-February) precipitation 36 -10 -10 -10 -20 Longest dry day period Increase of mean number of consecutive dry days +5 +8 +10 +20 Rainfall intensity % change of mean total precipitation 20 20 20 50 Cyclone intensity % change 70 90 100 Climate Change - Stagnation Scenario Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU- Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013 SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 46. Peak Discharges Stagnation Scenario 2015 (reference, m3/s) 2030 2040 2050 2100 Ganges Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Hardinge Bridge 51 130 30 40 70 Brahmaputra Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Bahadurabad 67 490 15 20 30 Meghna Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Bhairab bazar 13 370 15 20 30 Peak Discharges - Stagnation Scenario Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 47. Upstream Abstractions Stagnation Scenario 2015 (reference, m3/s) 2030 2050 2100 Ganges Change Average dry season flow % change (minus) at Hardinge Bridge 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty Brahmaputra Change Average dry season flow % change (minus) at Bahadurabad 3 000 -20% -40% -60% Average dry season flow Brahmaputra m3/s at Bahadurabad 3 000 2400 1800 1200 Upstream Abstractions - Stagnation Scenario Source reference values: IWM, BWDB SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 48. Quantification Socio-Economic Developments- All Scenarios Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC) Socio-economic developments 2015 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 Population Million inhabitants Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 169 169 169 169 175 171 173 174 185 175 188 197 194 174 200 217 200 170 210 230 165 125 190 260 Urbanization urban inhabitants (%) Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 34 34 34 34 38 38 35 35 49 45 40 39 58 54 46 44 70 60 52 48 85 75 70 60 GDP Growth Average annual real GDP growth rates (%) Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 7.7 6.4 6.0 4.9 8.0 6.5 5.0 4.0 7.5 5.8 4.5 3.0 6.8 5.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 2.5 1.5 2.0 GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 820 820 820 820 1147 1105 1048 978 2322 2008 1685 1323 4606 3469 2519 1611 8707 5723 3585 1893 58000 30000 12000 4500 Agricultural share GDP GDP contribution agricultural sector (%) Reference year: 2014 Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 16 16 16 16 15 15 16 16 12 13 15 16 10 12 14 15 8 10 13 15 5 8 10 14 Agriculture employment share % of people employed in agriculture sector Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 47 47 47 47 40 42 47 48 30 35 46 50 25 30 45 50 20 25 45 47 5 10 35 40 Continued SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 49. Quantification Land Use Developments- All Scenarios Land use developments 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 Agriculture land % surface area Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 60 60 60 60 -- - - -- -- - - -- -- - - -- - 0 - -- 0 + - -- Urban / industrial land % surface area Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 3 3 3 3 ++ + + + ++ + + + ++ + + + ++ + + + + + + + Rural settlements % surface area Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 12 12 12 12 -- - + ++ -- - + ++ -- - + ++ -- - + ++ -- -- - ++ Mangrove / forests % surface area Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 10 10 10 10 -- - -- -- - - -- -- - 0 -- -- 0 + -- -- + + - - SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 50. Population Developments - All Scenarios GDP per capita development until 2050 - all scenarios Continued SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 51. Climate change 2015 (reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100 Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 7100 7100 7100 7100 10-20 15-30 10-20 15-30 15-25 30-40 15-25 30-40 20-30 40-60 20-30 40-60 40-60 80-125 40-60 80-125 Temperature Mean max temperature degrees change (˚C) Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 25 25 25 25 +0.5 +1.5 +0.5 +1.5 +0.75 +1.75 +0.75 +1.75 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +4 +2 +4 Monsoon rainfall % change mean total monsoon (June- September) precipitation Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 1750 1750 1750 1750 0 15 0 20 5 18 5 18 10 20 10 20 15 40 15 40 Dry season rainfall % change mean total dry season (December-February) precipitation Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 36 36 36 36 0 -10 0 -10 0 -10 0 -10 0 -10 0 -10 0 -20 0 -20 Longest dry day period Increase of mean number of consecutive dry days Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 0 +5 0 +5 0 +8 0 +8 0 +10 0 +10 +5 +20 +5 +20 Rainfall intensity % change of mean total precipitation Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 20 50 20 50 Cyclone intensity % change Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation ? ? ? ? 25 70 25 70 45 90 45 90 90 100 90 100 Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013 Quantification of Climate change - All Scenario Continued SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 52. Peak Discharges Scenario 2015 (reference, m3/s) 2030 2050 2100 Ganges Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Hardinge Bridge Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 51130 51130 51130 51130 15 30 15 30 20 40 20 40 30 70 30 70 Brahmaputra Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Bahadurabad Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 67490 67490 67490 67490 5 15 5 15 10 20 10 20 15 30 15 30 Meghna Peak discharge % change of mean annual maximum at Bhairab bazar Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation 13370 13370 13370 13370 5 15 5 15 10 20 10 20 15 30 15 30 Quantification Peak Discharges - All Scenarios Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 53. Upstream Abstractions Scenario 2015 (reference, m3/s) 2030 2050 2100 Ganges Change Average dry season flow % change (minus) at Hardinge Bridge Productive 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty Resilient 750 Congestion 750 Stagnation 750 Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge Productive 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty Resilient 750 Congestion 750 Stagnation 750 Brahmaputra Change Average dry season flow % change (minus) at Bahadurabad Productive 3000 -5% -15% -30% Resilient 3000 -15% -30% -50% Congestion 3000 -10% -25% -40% Stagnation 3000 -20% -40% -60% Average dry season flow Brahmaputra m3/s at Bahadurabad Productive 3000 2850 2550 2100 Resilient 3000 2550 2100 1500 Congestion 3000 2700 2250 1800 Stagnation 3000 2400 1800 1200 Upstream Abstractions - All Scenarios Source reference values: IWM, BWDB SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 54. • Very high economic growth • Moderate climate change • Strongly globalized and diversified economy with many shared interests between riparian countries • Low to moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100) • Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development • Trans-boundary agreements for main and regional rivers • Joint water development projects in upstream catchments PRODUCTIVE SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 55. • High economic growth • High climate change • Moderately diversified economy, strong agri-sector, moderate shared interests between riparian countries • Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100) • Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development • Trans-boundary agreements for main rivers • Joint water development projects in upstream catchments RESILIENT SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 56. • Low but stable economic growth • Moderate climate change • Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between riparian countries • Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100) • Little to medium data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development • Extension of Ganges treaty only CONGESTION SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 57. • Low and decreasing economic growth • High climate change • Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between riparian countries • Moderate to high increase in upstream abstraction from medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100) • Little data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development • Extension of Ganges treaty only STAGNATION SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN
  • 58. Scenario Planning Process Copyright Bandudeltas - 201 Approach towards BDP scenarios SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN