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Does Europe need a Food Policy – Yes or No ?
The Hague, December 1 2015
148th EAAE Seminar
Krijn J. Poppe
Content
 Four societal challenges
● Healthy diet for a healthy life
● Food and nutrition security
● Climate change
● Sust...
Trends in food: interest in healthy diet?
 Health
● Awareness of healthy diets and lifestyles
● Struggle against obesitas...
Consumer behaviour and –attitudes on sustainability
 Consumers choose
altruistic values like
equality, peace and fair
abo...
Food consumption compared to official
advise, NL 2007 – 2010 (source: PBL)
5
Food and nutrition security
 Current challenge - 50% has a food related problem:
● Undernourished: 0.8 billion
● Malnutri...
Climate change
 UNFCCC, the United
Nations Framework
Conference on Climate
Change: COP21
 Towards hard goals on
CO2 emis...
Sustainability and resilience
 Agriculture reduced pollution, per ha and even more per
kg of product >> when incentivized...
Sustainability – how it became an issue
Trends in the food system - concentration
 Bigger food processors
● Nearly 50 farmer cooperatives have members in
more th...
Chain organisation changes (©Gereffi et al., 2005)
inputsEndproduct
PRICE
Shops Complete
IntegrationLead
company
Lead
comp...
Concentration in farming Source: FADN
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
percentagestandardoutput
percentage farm...
tijd
Mate van verspreiding
van technologische revolutie
Installatie periode
Volgende
golf
Uitrol periode
Draai-
punt
INDRI...
ICT brings info for farmer and consumer
Royal Gala apple
Origin: Girona
Pesticides: No
Organic farming: Yes
Carbon footpri...
Which innovations and new business models are possible ?
Precision Farming/Advice Segment Online + infoService ++
• Prescr...
Big Data for Smart Food and Health Services
Life
style
Health
Food
16
Reducing health costs with big data
Productivity:
 Science has the potential to develop technologies that can boost
productivity whilst addressing resource s...
 HighTech: strong influence new technology owned by
multinationals. Driverless tractors, contract farming and a
rural exo...
Scenarios: from agricultural to food policy
Strong government
Room for markets and networks
Con-
serve Develop
(c) Poppe e...
Towards a food policy
– where to start?
Towards a food policy
– where to start?
• Getting Prices Right
• Nudging and advise to consumers?
• Partner with commercia...
Towards a food policy
– in research:
• Multi- and transdisciplinary
• Create a Research Infrastructure
Towards a food policy
– what does it mean for CAP post-2020?
• Food policy influences farming, not vice versa?
• Attention...
Conclusions
 Four societal challenges
● Healthy diet for a healthy life
● Food and nutrition security
● Climate change
● ...
Thanks for your
attention
krijn.poppe@wur.nl
www.lei.wur.nl
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Closing EAAE Seminar 148: Food Policy needed

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Presentation given at the closing of the EAAE Seminar #148, December 1, 2015: Does Europe Need a Food Policy

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Closing EAAE Seminar 148: Food Policy needed

  1. 1. Does Europe need a Food Policy – Yes or No ? The Hague, December 1 2015 148th EAAE Seminar Krijn J. Poppe
  2. 2. Content  Four societal challenges ● Healthy diet for a healthy life ● Food and nutrition security ● Climate change ● Sustainability and resilience  Trends in the food system ● The role of ICT ● The dominance of the food chain  Do we need a food policy? - yes I think we do ● Where to start – Getting prices right and in R&D? ● What does it mean for agricultural policy?
  3. 3. Trends in food: interest in healthy diet?  Health ● Awareness of healthy diets and lifestyles ● Struggle against obesitas  Sustainable food production ● Growing demand for sustainable, seasonal products from the region ● Reduction in consumption, food waste as an issue  New cultures in food ● Relax and slow, contra-trend of technology  Quality time: products should ripen, slow food ● Experience – food as a part of story telling ● More fresh, less meat
  4. 4. Consumer behaviour and –attitudes on sustainability  Consumers choose altruistic values like equality, peace and fair above nature values (pollution, in balance with nature) and egoistic values (power, richness, authority)  15% of the persons have public values as animal welfare, environment and justice as a first choice.  Health, price and taste are most important aspects of food Bron: Backus et al. (2011). Voedselbalans 2011. LEI-WUR.
  5. 5. Food consumption compared to official advise, NL 2007 – 2010 (source: PBL) 5
  6. 6. Food and nutrition security  Current challenge - 50% has a food related problem: ● Undernourished: 0.8 billion ● Malnutrition: 1.0 billion ● Obese and overweight 1.6 billion  2050 from 7 to 9 billion: 2.0 billion extra  ‘double burden’: co-existence of undernourishment and overweight  Stable access to food more an issue than production  Changing diets in relation to urbanisation and higher incomes  UN: Sustainable development goals. Reducing poverty !
  7. 7. Climate change  UNFCCC, the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change: COP21  Towards hard goals on CO2 emissions and CO2 trading?  Future energy prices in the bio-economy and their influence on food production ?  Role of agriculture in adaptation and mitigation?
  8. 8. Sustainability and resilience  Agriculture reduced pollution, per ha and even more per kg of product >> when incentivized by policy or retail  But still a long list of issues, among others: ● Pesticides ● Manure, fertilizer and water quality ● Greenhouse gasses ● Antibiotics ● Local issues like odour and light nuisance ● Animal welfare and resistance to industrialisation  The role of animals in climate change and food nutrition  Geo-politics and resilience of our food system
  9. 9. Sustainability – how it became an issue
  10. 10. Trends in the food system - concentration  Bigger food processors ● Nearly 50 farmer cooperatives have members in more than 1 EU member state  Concentrated retail
  11. 11. Chain organisation changes (©Gereffi et al., 2005) inputsEndproduct PRICE Shops Complete IntegrationLead company Lead company Turnkey supplier Relational supplier Market Modular Relational Captive Hierarchy Low Degree of explicit coordination and power asymmetry High Lead company Farmers
  12. 12. Concentration in farming Source: FADN 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 percentagestandardoutput percentage farms France Germany UK Spain Italy Poland Sweden 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 5 10 15 20 25 percentagestandardoutput percentage farms France Poland Romania
  13. 13. tijd Mate van verspreiding van technologische revolutie Installatie periode Volgende golf Uitrol periode Draai- punt INDRINGER EXTASE SYNERGIE RIJPHEID Door- braak Werkeloosheid Stilstand oude bedrijfstakken Kapitaal zoekt nieuwe techniek Financiele bubble Onevenwichtigheden Polarisatie arm en rijk Gouden eeuw Coherente groei Toenemende externalities Techniek bereikt grenzen Marktverzadiging Teleurstelling en gemakzucht Institutionele innovatie Naar Perez, 2002 Crash 2008 1929 1893 1847 1797 time Degree of diffusion of the technological revoluton Installation period Next wave Deployment period Turning point IRRUPTION FRENZY SYNERGY MATURITY Big Bang Unemployment Decline of old industries Capital searches new techniques Financial bubble Decoupling in the system Polarisation poor and rich Golden age Coherent growth Increasing externalities Last products & industries Market saturation Disappointment vs complacency Crash 2008 1929 1893 1847 1797 Institutional innovation Based on Perez, 2002 The opportunity for green growth 1971 chip ICT 1908 car, oil, mass production 1875 steel 1829 steam, railways 1771 water, textiles
  14. 14. ICT brings info for farmer and consumer Royal Gala apple Origin: Girona Pesticides: No Organic farming: Yes Carbon footprint:1,2 kg CO2e
  15. 15. Which innovations and new business models are possible ? Precision Farming/Advice Segment Online + infoService ++ • Prescriptive farming • Predictive maintenance • Eco-systems of apps • Regionally pooled big data analysis for science and advise (and risk mgt.) • Personalized advise by apps • Online shops • Integrated supply chains • Feedback consumer-producer • Measure, pay sustainability • Better T&T • Paperless chain • Store replenishment • Category management Sustainability HealthFood SafetyFood Security LoyaltySMEs Cost priceGRIN Cope with retail Transport Input industries Farmer Food processor Retail / consumerSoftware Provider Logistic solution providers Transport+ Collaboration and Data Exchange is needed!
  16. 16. Big Data for Smart Food and Health Services Life style Health Food 16
  17. 17. Reducing health costs with big data
  18. 18. Productivity:  Science has the potential to develop technologies that can boost productivity whilst addressing resource scarcities and environmental problems  Massive investments needed in R&D, technology adoption, rural infrastructure, access to markets  GRIN technologies (Genetics, Robotics, Informatics, Nano) Sufficiency:  Science has the potential to develop technological solutions that are productive, reduce resource use, preserve biodiversity  However, demand increases need to be mitigated, through behavorial change, structural changes food systems  Appropriate governance structures to internalise externalities ● E.g.: less meat, urban farming etc. SCAR 3rd Foresight: 2 narratives for future
  19. 19.  HighTech: strong influence new technology owned by multinationals. Driverless tractors, contract farming and a rural exodus. US of Europe. Rich society with inequality. Sustainability issues solved. Bio-boom scenario.  Self-organisation: Europe of regions where new ICT technologies with disruptive business models lead to self- organisation, bottom-up democracy, short-supply chains, multi-functional agriculture. European institutions are weak, regions and cities rule. Inequalities between regions, depending on endowments.  Collapse: Big climate change effects, mass-migration and political turbulence leads to a collapse of institutions and European integration. Regional and local communities look for self-sufficiency. Bio-scarcity and labour intensive agriculture. Technology development becomes dependent on science in China, India, Brazil. SCAR AKIS Foresight: 3 narratives
  20. 20. Scenarios: from agricultural to food policy Strong government Room for markets and networks Con- serve Develop (c) Poppe et al, 2009
  21. 21. Towards a food policy – where to start?
  22. 22. Towards a food policy – where to start? • Getting Prices Right • Nudging and advise to consumers? • Partner with commercial sector in product development? >> “choice editing” • Regulation – which ones?
  23. 23. Towards a food policy – in research: • Multi- and transdisciplinary • Create a Research Infrastructure
  24. 24. Towards a food policy – what does it mean for CAP post-2020? • Food policy influences farming, not vice versa? • Attention for health aspects of farm management: antibiotics, zoonoses • Better policies for sustainability – incentivize sustainability programs of food industry for larger farms? • Do not frame a trade off between productivity and sustainability • Research moves the frontier • Adopt the sufficiency scenario: in co- creation consumer demand is not given
  25. 25. Conclusions  Four societal challenges ● Healthy diet for a healthy life ● Food and nutrition security ● Climate change ● Sustainability and resilience  Trends in the food system ● The role of ICT ● The dominance of the food chain  Yes, we need a food policy ● Start with getting prices right and in R&D ● Agricultural policy can support, not replace food policy
  26. 26. Thanks for your attention krijn.poppe@wur.nl www.lei.wur.nl
  • PatrickBarrett8

    Dec. 1, 2015

Presentation given at the closing of the EAAE Seminar #148, December 1, 2015: Does Europe Need a Food Policy

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