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the thing about predictions... IMG SRC: Flickr
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."    Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
  "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."   Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder ...
internet  connectivity <ul><li>Dirt cheap, lightening fast & “always on” internet </li></ul><ul><li>Computers light, dumb ...
all digital devices will be connected & networked <ul><li>From your car, radio, phone, fridge... “always on” </li></ul><ul...
rise of the  mobile internet <ul><li>Rapid improvements in connectivity & screens </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile to be dominant ...
rise of individual  & entrepreneur <ul><li>Open source = unprecedented access to code & applications </li></ul><ul><li>Che...
strides against digital divide <ul><li>Developing world joins digital ecosystem via mobile phones </li></ul><ul><li>Also b...
almost no privacy  on the web <ul><li>Your data will be out there </li></ul><ul><li>It will be ok because everyone will be...
the rise of the  virtual universe <ul><li>Virtual worlds like Second life go mainstream </li></ul><ul><li>Come to fore as ...
information pollution & overload <ul><li>Next big challenge is how to manage masses of information </li></ul><ul><li>Peopl...
more googles  & facebooks <ul><li>Google & Facebook finally get good competition </li></ul><ul><li>Microsoft releases OS c...
media distribution  & production <ul><li>All media eventually delivered via internet  </li></ul><ul><li>Hardly any special...
now everyone is a media player <ul><li>Barrier to entry drops even more dramatically </li></ul><ul><li>Rise of the reader ...
IMG SRC: WANN
...other developments
other trends for now & the future <ul><li>Semantic web entrenched </li></ul><ul><li>Artificial intelligence </li></ul><ul>...
Forget capitalism and the class struggle... the  digital revolution is changing things far more dramatically than the hype...
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Future Web Trends Slide 1 Future Web Trends Slide 2 Future Web Trends Slide 3 Future Web Trends Slide 4 Future Web Trends Slide 5 Future Web Trends Slide 6 Future Web Trends Slide 7 Future Web Trends Slide 8 Future Web Trends Slide 9 Future Web Trends Slide 10 Future Web Trends Slide 11 Future Web Trends Slide 12 Future Web Trends Slide 13 Future Web Trends Slide 14 Future Web Trends Slide 15 Future Web Trends Slide 16 Future Web Trends Slide 17 Future Web Trends Slide 18
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  1. the thing about predictions... IMG SRC: Flickr
  2. &quot;I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.&quot; Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
  3. &quot;There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.&quot; Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
  4. internet connectivity <ul><li>Dirt cheap, lightening fast & “always on” internet </li></ul><ul><li>Computers light, dumb terminals: need net connection to work </li></ul><ul><li>Most applications web-based for best efficiency </li></ul>IMG SRC: Flickr
  5. all digital devices will be connected & networked <ul><li>From your car, radio, phone, fridge... “always on” </li></ul><ul><li>An unconnected digital device will be a strange thing </li></ul><ul><li>WiMax connected sunglasses with voice prompted HUD? </li></ul><ul><li>( A head-up display , or HUD , is any transparent display that presents data without obstructing the user's view). </li></ul>
  6. rise of the mobile internet <ul><li>Rapid improvements in connectivity & screens </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile to be dominant platform for connecting to net worldwide </li></ul><ul><li>Japan: happened already (mostly surf web through phones) </li></ul><ul><li>Voice calls powered by internet & SMS/Texts -> IM </li></ul><ul><li>Cellphones electronic wallets & banks = main method of payment </li></ul><ul><li>Citizens vote for first time in elections via mobile phones? </li></ul>
  7. rise of individual & entrepreneur <ul><li>Open source = unprecedented access to code & applications </li></ul><ul><li>Cheap to create business online & make own media </li></ul><ul><li>Teenager in basement same opp. as worker in big company </li></ul><ul><li>EXAMPLE: New mobile operating system (Android)? </li></ul>
  8. strides against digital divide <ul><li>Developing world joins digital ecosystem via mobile phones </li></ul><ul><li>Also become part of economy via cellphone wallet </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile phones cheap & broadband ubiquitous </li></ul><ul><li>Illiteracy issues overcome by video & audio streams </li></ul><ul><li>Creates new areas of collaboration and education </li></ul>
  9. almost no privacy on the web <ul><li>Your data will be out there </li></ul><ul><li>It will be ok because everyone will be in the same boat </li></ul><ul><li>Seeing already with soc. networking services like FB </li></ul>
  10. the rise of the virtual universe <ul><li>Virtual worlds like Second life go mainstream </li></ul><ul><li>Come to fore as graphic cards & broadband improve </li></ul><ul><li>Potentially a visual alternative to the world wide web </li></ul><ul><li>Standards: different worlds connect to each other seamlessly </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual coup d’etat by SL citizens? </li></ul><ul><li>Linden Labs cedes SL to democratically elected virtual govt </li></ul>
  11. information pollution & overload <ul><li>Next big challenge is how to manage masses of information </li></ul><ul><li>People will complain about &quot;digital fatigue“ & digital noise </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on developing filters & aggregators </li></ul><ul><li>“ Switch-off&quot; holidays regularly prescribed by your doctor </li></ul><ul><li>Rise of anti-digital movements urging “get back to basics” </li></ul><ul><li>In response to clutter, a second world wide web announced </li></ul>
  12. more googles & facebooks <ul><li>Google & Facebook finally get good competition </li></ul><ul><li>Microsoft releases OS code and goes open source </li></ul><ul><li>MS makes revenue by selling advertising & giving support </li></ul><ul><li>Advertising is main bus. model (connecting sellers & buyers) </li></ul><ul><li>Facebook becomes a virtual OS/desktop, with MS influence </li></ul>
  13. media distribution & production <ul><li>All media eventually delivered via internet </li></ul><ul><li>Hardly any specialist print, tv, radio media companies left </li></ul><ul><li>All fully converged, broadcasting & publishing via the net </li></ul><ul><li>Media on many digital platforms </li></ul>MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
  14. now everyone is a media player <ul><li>Barrier to entry drops even more dramatically </li></ul><ul><li>Rise of the reader and the consumer </li></ul><ul><li>Readers: publishers, broadcasters: competitors & collaborators </li></ul><ul><li>Small, converged media challenge media conglomerates </li></ul>MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
  15. IMG SRC: WANN
  16. ...other developments
  17. other trends for now & the future <ul><li>Semantic web entrenched </li></ul><ul><li>Artificial intelligence </li></ul><ul><li>Attention economy in full swing </li></ul><ul><li>Sophisticated personalisation of content </li></ul><ul><li>Location-based/mapping services common & mobile </li></ul><ul><li>Virtualisation eg: Amazon’s EC2 & S3 services </li></ul><ul><li>Web 14.0???... ;-) </li></ul>SRC: Read Write/Web, Jaxon Rice, My blog
  18. Forget capitalism and the class struggle... the digital revolution is changing things far more dramatically than the hypemongers ever imagined... the move from a society dominated by print and broadcast mass media to the age of interactivity is at least as dramatic as the move from feudalism to capitalism. Netocracy, by Jan Söderqvist and Alexander Bard (2001) IMG SRC: Flickr
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