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The Higher Education Dilemma: In Search of Long Term Sustainability,[object Object],[Major Corporation} Mid-Atlantic Regional Meeting,[object Object],February 23, 2011,[object Object],Ellen Chaffee, AGB Senior Fellow and ,[object Object],President Emerita,  Valley City State University,[object Object], ,[object Object]
Agenda,[object Object],9:00	The Changing Landscape of Higher Education,[object Object],		* Where funds come from and where they go,[object Object],		* Changing expectations and circumstances,[object Object],10:30	Break,[object Object],10:45	Our Advice to Universities and Colleges – Can [Corp.] Help?,[object Object],		* Getting our minds right,[object Object],		* Reverse engineering the future,[object Object],		* The discipline/innovation paradox,[object Object],12:00	Lunch,[object Object],2,[object Object]
Changing Landscape of Higher Education,[object Object]
Higher Education Pressure Points,[object Object],Declining/drying-up resources,[object Object],Federal and State budgets,[object Object],Tuition rate ceiling,[object Object],Investment losses, foundation and charitable declines,[object Object],Rising expectations,[object Object],More graduates,[object Object],More focus on results, accountability, performance funding,[object Object],Changing students – less prepared, less able to pay, new learning styles and expectations, more distant,[object Object],4,[object Object]
Federal Government,[object Object],Economy,[object Object],Available State and Local Govt. Funds,[object Object],Higher Education,[object Object],The Flow of Funds for Public Higher Education,[object Object],Stimulus Funds,[object Object],Tax Policy,[object Object],[object Object]
Corrections
Health Care
Other Govt.Appropriations/Grants,[object Object],Student Aid,[object Object],Tuition,[object Object],Students,[object Object],Institutions,[object Object],Scholarships &Waivers,[object Object],Dennis Jones, NCHEMS,[object Object],5,[object Object]
Federal Government,[object Object],Economy,[object Object],Available State and Local Govt. Funds,[object Object],Higher Education,[object Object],The Flow of Funds for Private Higher Education,[object Object],Stimulus Funds,[object Object],Tax Policy,[object Object],[object Object]
Corrections
Health Care
Other Govt.Private Gifts,[object Object],Appropriations/Grants,[object Object],Student Aid,[object Object],Tuition,[object Object],Endowment,[object Object],Students,[object Object],Institutions,[object Object],Scholarships &Waivers,[object Object],6,[object Object]
The Business Model of Higher Education is Broken,[object Object],7,[object Object],We sell below cost.,[object Object],The “customers” of (nearly?) all public, private, and for-profit universities and colleges pay less than their “product” costs.,[object Object],Yet few customers can pay what we charge out of pocket. ,[object Object],Our “natural” margins are negative.,[object Object],Without grants from public and private sources, our margin would be negative – typically, SIGNIFICANTLY negative.,[object Object],So we cannot grow our way to prosperity.,[object Object],Growing with tuition only (beyond filling current capacity) drives us into deficit. ,[object Object],But we generally choose to ignore that. ,[object Object]
State Revenue Pattern,[object Object],8,[object Object]
State Funding is Stressed,[object Object],9,[object Object]
State Budget Pressures,[object Object],Pension programs,[object Object],Medicaid – more beneficiaries, $87B stimulus,[object Object],Unemployment assistance,[object Object],$72B shortfall in state budgets for FY12,[object Object],State Outlook AASCU Nov 2010,[object Object]
So Our Prices are Skyrocketing,[object Object]
Students have to borrow more & more,[object Object],12,[object Object]
Yet we still have ever-greater difficulty balancing the budget,[object Object],Gap,[object Object]
40% of Americans Struggling “A Lot;” Only 20% “Not Struggling”,[object Object],14,[object Object],http://www.publicagenda.org/economy-and-american-dream-2011,[object Object]
Views on What Might Help,[object Object],15,[object Object],http://www.publicagenda.org/economy-and-american-dream-2011,[object Object]
College is more necessary, accessibility is falling fast,[object Object],Importance and Access,[object Object],16,[object Object]
Spending Within Education & Related (E&R),[object Object],All data are in 2008 dollars. Source: Delta Cost Project IPEDS Database,  1987-2008, 11-year matched set.,[object Object]
…where the money goes by major functional area ,[object Object]
Attainment Goals,[object Object],19,[object Object],“By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world”,[object Object],- President Obama, 2/24/09,[object Object],to increase the percentage of Americans with high-quality degrees and credentials to 60 percent by the year 2025 ,[object Object],– Lumina Foundation for Education,[object Object],Currently: 39%,[object Object],VA: 42%,[object Object],OH: 36%,[object Object],KY: 32%,[object Object],PA: 43%,[object Object],WV: 28%,[object Object],MD: 45%,[object Object]
Demographic and Competitive Challenges,[object Object],Fewer traditional students, more disadvantaged, more working, more older, more low-income, less well-prepared,[object Object],Opportunities/challenges of international students/experiences,[object Object],Opportunities/challenges of online enrollment,[object Object],Growth of for-profit sector,[object Object],Constraints on serious innovation such as lack of venture capital and multi-faceted regulatory environment,[object Object],20,[object Object]
The Leaky (gushing) Pipeline,[object Object],100 High School Graduates,[object Object],VA OH KY PA MD WV ,[object Object],46  45  44  49  49   42   * Enter College ,[object Object],13  12   6   16   11    7    * Grad 4-Yr in 4 ,[object Object],  4    3    3     5     5    2    * Grad 2-Yr in 3,[object Object],www.complete college.org,[object Object]
Enrollment Growth 1973-2008,[object Object],22,[object Object]
Online Enrollment Findings, 2010,[object Object],•          Almost two-thirds of for-profit institutions now say that online learning is a critical part of their long term strategy.,[object Object],•          The 21% growth rate for online enrollments far exceeds the 2% growth in the overall higher education student population.,[object Object],•          Nearly one-half of institutions report that the economic downturn has increased demand for face-to-face courses and programs.,[object Object],•          Three-quarters of institutions report that the economic downturn has increased demand for online courses and programs,[object Object],http://sloanconsortium.org/publications/survey/pdf/staying_the_course.pdf,[object Object],23,[object Object]
The Noose is Tightening,[object Object],Less State Money,[object Object],Lower Family Income,[object Object],Deferred Maintenance,[object Object],End of Stimulus Funds,[object Object],Changing Demography,[object Object],High Cost of Innovation,[object Object],Even LESS State Money,[object Object],Higher Workloads (furloughs, layoffs, productivity efforts, increased enrollment),[object Object],Limited Revenue Sources,[object Object],More Financial Aid,[object Object],Keep Tuition Down,[object Object],Keep up with technologies,[object Object]
Our advice to universities,[object Object]
Banish the Iron Triangle,[object Object],26,[object Object],QUALITY,[object Object],ACCESS,[object Object],COST,[object Object]
Not this!,[object Object],27,[object Object],QUALITY,[object Object],ACCESS,[object Object],COST,[object Object],Coping Strategies of Public Universities during the Economic Recession of 2009. APLU, November 2009,[object Object]
How Can We LEAD to the BEST Future for the University?,[object Object],Develop a shared understanding of where you are and what you want!,[object Object],[object Object],Do more of what will get you there and less of what won’t,[object Object],[object Object]
Align resources, cut costs, increase productivity
Innovate, re-inventMonitor your progress and exercise self-discipline,[object Object],-	Scorecard, strategic governance,[object Object],28,[object Object]
29,[object Object],“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”,[object Object]
Old Way                                         New Way,[object Object],Improve today,[object Object],Iron Triangle,[object Object],Inputs, actions,[object Object],Program benefit,[object Object],Continuity,[object Object],Achieve tomorrow,[object Object],Reduce U & student costs,[object Object],Outcomes, outputs, results,[object Object],Program cost-benefit,[object Object],Innovation and continuous improvement,[object Object]
Checklist for Reverse Engineering the Future,[object Object],Define the desired long-term future state and understand the gap between here and there.,[object Object],Will the university’s clients’ costs-benefits be in balance?,[object Object],Will the university’s institutional costs-benefits be in balance?,[object Object],What will be the evidence that you’ve arrived?,[object Object],Do less of what won’t get you there – off track, inefficient,[object Object],Do more of what will get you there – cost/benefit and INNOVATION focus,[object Object],LEARN and exercise DISCIPLINE over time,[object Object],Test options for impact on metrics and cost-benefit, learn,[object Object],Test progress on metrics, recalibrate, re-strategize,[object Object],31,[object Object]
Changing the value proposition,[object Object]
Strategic Planning by SWOT is not enough,[object Object],33,[object Object],Of the university,[object Object],Of the environment,[object Object]
Strategic Planning by SWOT is not enough,[object Object],34,[object Object],Future,[object Object],Typical Plan,[object Object],We will:,[object Object],[object Object]

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Higher Education's Dilemma

Notas do Editor

  1. Top Line Findings:Spending Continues to RiseDoesn’t show effects of revenue volatility – (b/c investment return not part of budget?)Overall spending continued to increase for all institutions:increases were greater for the publics (2.5 – 3.5% between 07-08) than for the privates (.5 – 1.5%)All institutions are spending at or slightly above where they were in 2000 -Public Res, Pvt MA, BA <1% annual increase -Pvt. Res was up 2.5% annually.(note – incomparability in public data for 2000 b/c uses gross scholarships/fellowships, but later years use net)2. Overall spending per student continues to obscure what’s being spent on the core academic programLooking just at E&R.. See smaller disparities that when looking at total spending, but still evidentPublic MA and CC spend similar (10-12k), Pub Res (15k)Pvts all spend more than publics – Pvt MA (16k), Pvt BA (20k), Pvt Res (34k)All institutions spent more on E&R in 2008 than in prior yearsFastest growth in 07-08 was in Public Res, MA, and Pvt BA(2.5-3%), which outpaced prior years annual spending growthpvt Res and MA institutions also still spent more, but growth was slower (<2%) and growth was less than in prior years
  2. Cost-Benefit can refer to the budget (revenues and funded activities) or the value proposition to clients (our activities will attract their investment sufficient to fund our activities)