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2014 التقرير الاقتصادي و المالي للقانون المالي المغربي لسنة
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2014 التقرير الاقتصادي و المالي للقانون المالي المغربي لسنة
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2014 التقرير الاقتصادي و المالي للقانون المالي المغربي لسنة
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"ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﺇﻃﻼﻕ
ﻋﻠﻰ ،ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺵ ﺍﻋﺘﻼﺋﻨﺎ ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﻤﻠﻨﺎ ﻟﻘﺪ ،ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﺵﻓﻲﻣﻊ ﻣﻮﺍﺯﺍﺓ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺠﺎﻭﺏ ﻓﻲ ،ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﺗﻄﻠﻌﺎﺗﻚ.ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﻃﻦ ﻛﺮﺍﻣﺔ ﺟﻌﻠﻨﺎ ﻭﻗﺪ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﻨﺎ ﺻﻠﺐ ﻓﻲ ،ﻭﺍﺯﺩﻫﺎﺭﻩ.،ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺻﻠﺔ ﻣﺴﻴﺮﺓ ﺇﻧﻬﺎ ﺟﺮﻳﺌ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﻮﺍﻣﻬﺎﻭﻣﻘﺎﺭﺑﺎﺕ ،ﺣﺎﺯﻣﺔ ﻭﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ،ﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺍﻷﻧﺠﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﻣﻊ ،ﺗﺸﺎﺭﻛﻴﺔ." ϲϣΎδϟ ϲϜϠͪ ΏΎτͩ Ϧϣ ϒτΘϘϣ ΔΒγΎϨ͛ήθϋ ΔόΑήϟ ϯήϛάϟϟΪϴό Ϊϴ̍ εήόϟˬ30ίϮϴϟϮϳ2013
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5.
1 ﻓـﻬــــﺭﺱ Δ˰˰˰ϣΪϘϣΔ˰˰˰ϣΎϋ.............................................................................................................1 ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀﺍﻷﻭﻝ:ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﻓﻲﻤﺤﻴﻁﻪﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲﻭﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻱ:ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺹﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ..........................2 1.ϮϤϨϟϱΩΎμΘϗϻϲϤϟΎόϟ:εΎόΘϧϲΠϳέΪΗ........................................................................3 1.1.ﺘﺄﻜﺩﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲﻤﻥﺨﻼﻝﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲﻭﻋﻭﺩﺓﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻷﻭﺭﺒﻲ............3 2.1.ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊﺁﻓﺎﻕﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﻓﻲﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺸﻤﺎﻝﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁﻓﻲﻅﻝﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻭﻑﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺎﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔﻏﻴﺭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓﻭﺍﻻﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ..................................................................5 3.1.ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﺍﻟﻘﻭﻱﻓﻲﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎﺠﻨﻭﺏﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀ......................................................5 4.1.ﺘﺤﺴﻥﻤﺭﺘﻘﺏﻟﻨﻤﻭﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔﺴﻨﺔ2014ﺒﻌﺩﺃﺩﺍﺀﻀﻌﻴﻑﺴﻨﺔ2013.......................................6 2.ϮτΗέΎόγέΩϮϤϟΔϴϟϭϷήόγϭϑήμϟϭΎϤϫήϴΛ΄ΗϰϠϋϥΰϴϤϟϱέΎΠΘϟϲΑήϐϤϟ.......................7 1.2.ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊﺤﺩﺓﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ..........................................................7 1.1.2.ϊΟήΗέΎόγςϔϨϟΔΠϴΘϧϦδΤΗνήόϟΆσΎΒΗϭΐϠτϟϲϤϟΎόϟ.....................................................................8 2.1.2.νΎϔΨϧέΎόγρΎϔγϮϔϟϪΗΎϘΘθϣϭϞόϔΑϒόοΐϠτϟ..............................................................................10 3.1.2.ϕΎϓΓΪϴΟϲϓϕϮγΩϮϤϟˬΔϴάϐϟΔΠϴΘϧϦδΤΗϞϴλΎΤϤϟ.......................................................................11 2.2.ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕﺴﻌﺭﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭﻭﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎﻋﻠﻰﺴﻌﺭﺍﻟﺩﺭﻫﻡ...............................................................................12 3.ΡΎΘϔϧΩΎμΘϗϻϲΑήϐϤϟ:έΎΛϵΕΎϧΎϫήϟϭ......................................................................14 1.3.ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲﻟﻠﻤﻐﺭﺏ:ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯﺩﻭﻥﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ......................................................14 1.1.3.ΰΠϋήΒϛϲϓϟϥΰϴϤϱέΎΠΘϟΔΠϴΘϧΪϳΰΗΔϤϴϗΕΩέϮϟ..........................................................................14 2.1.3.έήϘΘγϲΒδϧΔμΤϟΏήϐϤϟϲϓϕϮδϟΔϴϤϟΎόϟϢϏήϟΎΑϦϣνΎϔΨϧϪΘμΣϰϠϋϯϮΘδϣΩΎΤΗϻϲΑϭέϭϷ.............16 2.3.ﺒﻨﻴﺔﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺒﻲﻟﻠﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ.................................................................................................18 1.2.3.ϊϳϮϨΗ˯ϲτΑνήόϠϟϕϮγϷϭήϳΪμΘϟ................................................................................................18 2.2.3.ΔϴϣΎϨϳΩήϴϏΔϴϓΎϛΕέΩΎμϠϟΔϴΑήϐϤϟ..................................................................................................19 3.2.3.ϕΎΜΒϧ·ΕΎϛήΤϣΓΪϳΪΟήϳΪμΘϠϟ..........................................................................................................20 3.3.ﺁﻓﺎﻕﻭﺍﻋﺩﺓﻟﻠﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻓﻲﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎﺠﻨﻭﺏﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀ.............................................................21 1.3.3.εΎόΘϧΕέΩΎμϟΔϴΑήϐϤϟϮΤϧΎϴϘϳήϓ·ΏϮϨΟ˯ήΤμϟ...........................................................................21 2.3.3.ΕέΎϤΜΘγϻέϮτΗΓήηΎΒϤϟΔϴΑήϐϤϟϮΤϧΎϴϘϳήϓ·.....................................................................................22 4.3.ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ:ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﺠﺎﺫﺒﻴﺔﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﺭﻏﻡﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ.............................................................................................................................23 1.4.3.ΪϳΰΗΕέΎϤΜΘγϻΔϴΒϨΟϷΓήηΎΒϤϟϲϓΎϴϘϳήϓ·ϢϏέΎϬοΎϔΨϧϰϠϋϯϮΘδϤϟϲϤϟΎόϟ........................................23 2.4.3.ΏήϐϤϟΔϬΟϮϛϰϟϭΕέΎϤΜΘγϼϟΔϴΒϨΟϷΓήηΎΒϤϟϲϓϝΎϤηΎϴϘϳήϓ·ΔϴϧΎΜϟϭΎϴϘϳήϓ·.........................................24 3.4.3.ϕΎϓΔϴΑΎΠϳ·ϲΒϨΟϷέΎϤΜΘγϼϟήηΎΒϤϟϲϓϢϟΎόϟϲϓϭΏήϐϤϟ.....................................................................25 .4.4.3ϊϗϮϤΗΩΎμΘϗϻϲΑήϐϤϟϦϣϝϼΧξόΑήϳέΎϘΘϟΔϴϟϭΪϟ............................................................................26 ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ:ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ:ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕﺍﻟﺼﻤﻭﺩﻭﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ..................28 1.έϮτΘϟϲϠϜϴϬϟΩΎμΘϗϼϟϲ˰˰ϨσϮϟ................................................................................29 2.ϊϓέϱΪΤΗΔϴδϓΎϨΘϟ:ίϭΎΠΗΕΎϘϴόϤϟδϓϭϝΎΠϤϟϦϴϤΜΘϟΕϼϫΆϣΕΎϋΎτϘϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹΕΎϋΎτϗϭϢϋΪϟ ωΎτϘϟϭϲϟΎϤϟ........................................................................................................31 1.2.ﺩﻋﻡﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺤﺭﻜﺔﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﻭﺫﺍﺕﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎﺕﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔﻤﻬﻤﺔ..............................................................31 1.1.2.ςτΨϣΏήϐϤϟήπΧϷ:ϮΤϧϊϳήδΗΓήϴΗϭΚϳΪΤΗωΎτϘϟϲΣϼϔϟ..............................................................31
6.
2 .2.1.2ϮΤϧϦϴϤΜΗϞπϓΕΎϧΎϜϣϹωΎτϗΪϴμϟϱήΤΒϟ......................................................................................33 2.2.ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯﺩﻭﺭﺍﻟﻤﻬﻥﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓﻓﻲﺩﻋﻡﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻗﻊﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲﻟﻠﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ............34 1.2.2.ΰϳΰόΗϊϗϮϤϟΔϴδϓΎϨΘϟΔϋΎϨμϟΕέΎϴδϟΔϳϮϘΗϭϬΟΎϣΪϧΎ..........................................................................34 2.2.2.ΔϳϮϘΗΕΎϴϧΎϜϣ·ωΎτϗΔϋΎϨλϥήϴτϟΏήϐϤϟΎΑΰϳΰόΗϭϪόϗϮϤΗϲϓΔτϳήΨϟΔϴϤϟΎόϟωΎτϘϠϟ................................35 3.2.2.ΰϳΰόΗ˯ΩωΎτϗ"θϓϭϷώϨϳέϮ"ϑΎθϜΘγϭϕΎϓΓΪϳΪΟϮϤϨϠϟ.....................................................................36 4.2.2.ΓέϭήοΓΩΎϋ·ΔϠϜϴϫΝΫϮϤϨϟϲϋΎϨμϟωΎτϘϟΞϴδϨϟΔδΒϟϷϭ....................................................................37 5.2.2.ϊϳήδΗΰϳΰόΗΔϴδϓΎϨΗΔϋΎϨμϟΔϴάϐϟϦϴϤΜΗϭΎϬΗϼϫΆϣ............................................................................38 6.2.2.ΰϳΰόΗΓΩΎϳέΏήϐϤϟϲϓϕϮδϟΔϴϤϟΎόϟρΎϔγϮϔϠϟϪΗΎϘΘθϣϭ........................................................................39 7.2.2.ΩϮϤλΪϛΆϣωΎτϘϠϟϟϲΣΎϴδϲΑήϐϤϟϕΎϓϭΓΪϋϭΔϴϤϨΘϠϟ.........................................................................40 3.2.ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔﻟﻠﺴﻭﻕﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲﻜﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ...............................................................42 1.3.2.ΔγΎϴγϦϜδϟ:ϦϴΑΰϳΰόΗΕΎΒδΘϜϤϟϊϓέϭΕΎϳΪΤΘϟϯήΒϜϟ.......................................................................42 2.3.2.ϊϳήδΗΓήϴΗϭΚϳΪΤΗΓέΎΠΘϟΔϴϠΧΪϟ...................................................................................................44 4.2.ﻤﻭﺍﺼﻠﺔﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕﺍﻟﺩﻋﻡﻜﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔﻟﻠﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔﻭﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ................................................................46 1.4.2.ΕΎϣΪΨϟΔϴϜϴΘδΟϮϠϟΔϣΎϋΩΔϴγΎγΞϴδϨϠϟϲΟΎΘϧϹϲϨσϮϟ.......................................................................46 2.4.2.ιήϓΓΪϳΪΟήϳϮτΘϟωΎτϗΕϻΎμΗϻ..................................................................................................47 3.4.2.ΰϳΰόΗΔϴϣΎϨϳΩΕΎΣϼλϹωΎτϘΑ˯ΎϤϟ.................................................................................................49 4.4.2.ϊϳήδΗΓήϴΗϭϪΟϮΘϟϲΠϴΗήΘγϹωΎτϘϟΔϗΎτϟ.......................................................................................50 5.2.ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲﻜﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻝﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ.......................................................................................52 1.5.2.ΔγΎϴδϟΔϳΪϘϨϟϲϓϞχϊΟήΗϢΠΣΔϟϮϴδϟ............................................................................................52 2.5.2.έήϤΘγΆσΎΒΗΓήϴΗϭνϭήϘϟΔϣΪϘϤϟΩΎμΘϗϼϟ.....................................................................................53 3.5.2.ΩϮϛένϭήϘϟΔΣϮϨϤϤϟΕϻϭΎϘϤϠϟϯήϐμϟΔτγϮΘϤϟϭϢϏέϢϋΩϕϭΪϨμϟϱΰϛήϤϟϥΎϤπϠϟ...........................54 4.5.2.ΆσΎΒΗΪϳΪΟϲϓΓήϴΗϭωΎϔΗέϊΩϮϟΔϴϜϨΒϟ˯ϮΠϟϭϙϮϨΒϟϰϟ·ϕϮγϦϳΪϟιΎΨϟ.............................................55 5.5.2.υΎϔΤϟϰϠϋϞϳϮϤΗϲϜϨΑϢϴϠγϪϣϮϗΓέΩ·ΔϣέΎλήσΎΨϤϠϟ........................................................................55 6.5.2.ϝΎϤγέέΎϤΜΘγϻΔϴϟϛϲϓΔϣΪΧΕϻϭΎϘϤϟΔΌηΎϨϟ..................................................................................55 3.ΔϤϫΎδϣΕΎϬΠϟϲϓϖϠΧΓϭήΜϟεΎόϧ·ϭΔϴϤϨΘϟΔϳΩΎμΘϗϻ..................................................56 1.3.ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻴﺔﻓﻲﻨﻤﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ................................................................................56 1.1.3.ϕΎΜΒϧΏΎτϗΔϳϮϬΟΓΪϳΪΟ................................................................................................................56 2.1.3.έϮτΗΔϤψϧϷϧϹΔϴΟΎΘΔϳϮϬΠϟ.........................................................................................................58 2.3.ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔﻜﻘﻁﺎﻉﻓﻌﺎﻝﻓﻲﺘﺜﻤﻴﻥﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻱ............................................................................60 .1.2.3ίϭήΑΕΎϬΟΔϴϟΎϋκμΨΘϟ............................................................................................................60 .2.2.3ΔϴϠϴΜϤΗΔϧίϭΕΎϋΎτϘϟΪϗϞϜθΗΕΎόϓέΓΪϋϭϮϤϨϠϟ..................................................................................60 3.3.ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔﻜﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻴﺔ...............................................................................................62 4.ΞΎΘϧΔϤϬϣϲϓϝΎΠϤϟϲϋΎϤΘΟϻϦϜϟϊϣήϤΘγέιΎμΨϟΕΎΗϭΎϔΘϟϭ................................64 1.4.ﻗﻁﺎﻉﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻝﺒﺎﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ..........................................................................................................64 1.1.4.ϯϮΘδϣϞϴϐθΗϏήϴϑΎϛϮϤϨϠϟϱΩΎμΘϗϻΎλϮμΧϦϣΚϴΣΓΩϮΠϟ............................................................64 2.1.4.ϒόοΔϣ˯ϼϤϟϦϴΑϦϳϮϜΘϟΕΎϴΟΎΣϭϕϮγϞϐθϟ..................................................................................65 3.1.4.έΎΛΓΩϭΪΤϣΞϣήΒϟΘϟϞϴϐθ..............................................................................................................66 4.1.4.ϒόοΕΎϴϟΔσΎγϮϟϲϓϕϮγϞϐθϟ..................................................................................................66 5.1.4.ϞϴόϔΗϞδϠδϣΩΪϋ·ΔϴΠϴΗήΘγΔϴϨσϭϞϴϐθΘϠϟΏήϐϤϟΎΑ............................................................................67 2.4.ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﻴﺔﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ:ﺭﻫﺎﻥﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔﻓﻲﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ......................................................................67 1.2.4.ΔϴϤϨΘϟΔϳήθΒϟϲϓΏήϐϤϟ:ϯϮΘδϣϢϴϠόΘϟ˯έϭήΧ΄ΘϟϞΠδϤϟ..................................................................68 2.2.4.ωΎτϗΔϴΑήΘϟΔϴϨσϮϟ:ΞΎΘϧΔϴϤϛˬΔϴοήϣϦϜϟϞψΗΔϔϴόοϦϣΚϴΣΓΩϮΠϟ...................................................68 3.2.4.ϦϳϮϜΘϟϲϨϬϤϟ:ΩΪϋ·ΔϴΠϴΗήΘγ·ΓΪϳΪΟΔϴϤϨΘϟωΎτϘϟ...............................................................................70 3.4.ﻗﻁﺎﻉﺍﻟﺼﺤﺔ:ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕﻤﻬﻤﺔﻭﺠﺏﺭﻓﻌﻬﺎ....................................................................................71
7.
3 1.3.4.έήϤΘγϦϴδΤΗνήϋΕΎΟϼόϟ.......................................................................................................71 2.3.4.ϦδΤΗϢϬϣϲϓΕήηΆϣΕΎϴϓϮϟΪϣϭΓΎϴΤϟΪϨϋΓΩϻϮϟ............................................................................72 3.3.4.ϊϴγϮΗΔϴτϐΘϟΔϴΤμϟΔϴγΎγϷ.........................................................................................................72 4.3.4.ϞϳϮϤΗΤμϟΔ:ΔϨϤϴϫ˯ΩϷήηΎΒϤϟήγϸϟ...........................................................................................73 4.4.ﺘﻘﺩﻡﻜﺒﻴﺭﻓﻲﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔﻟﻸﻟﻔﻴﺔ..............................................................................74 1.4.4.νΎϔΨϧήϴΒϛϲϓΕϻΪόϣήϘϔϟΎθϬϟϭΔη.............................................................................................74 2.4.4.έήϤΘγϕέϮϔϟΕΎΗϭΎϔΘϟϭ.............................................................................................................74 3.4.4.ΔϠΣήϤϟΔϴϧΎΜϟϦϣΓέΩΎΒϤϟΔϴϨσϮϟΔϴϤϨΘϠϟΔϳήθΒϟ:ΰϳΰόΗΕΎΒδΘϜϤϟϴΤμΗϭΕϻϼΘΧϻ................................75 4.4.4.ϮΤϧΔϴΠϴΗήΘγ·ΔϴϨσϭΔΠϣΪϨϣΩΎμΘϗϼϟϲϋΎϤΘΟϻϲϨϣΎπΘϟϭ..................................................................76 5.4.ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺠﺔﺍﻟﻤﻠﺤﺔﻹﺼﻼﺡﺸﺎﻤﻝﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ...............................................................................77 5.ϢϋΩϮϤϨϟΏήϐϤϟΎΑ:ΰϳΰόΗΕΎΒδΘϜϤϟΚΤΒϟϭϦϋϞΒγΓΪϳΪΟϡΪϘΘϠϟ.......................................78 1.5.ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯﻤﻨﺎﺥﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝﻭﺘﺴﺭﻴﻊﺇﺼﻼﺡﺍﻟﻌﺩﺍﻟﺔ.................................................................................78 1.1.5.ϦϴδΤΗΥΎϨϣϝΎϤϋϷ.......................................................................................................................78 2.1.5.ϊϳήδΗΡϼλ·ΔϟΪόϟ......................................................................................................................80 2.5.ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ:ﻗﺎﻁﺭﺓﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓﻟﻨﻤﻭﺸﺎﻤﻝﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻡﻭﻤﻨﺼﻑ.............................................................80 1.2.5.ΩΎμΘϗϻϢΎϘϟϰϠϋΔϓήόϤϟΏήϐϤϟΎΑ:ϊοϮϟϲϟΎΤϟ...............................................................................81 2.2.5.ΩϮϬΠϟϲΘϟάΒϳΎϬϟΏήϐϤϟϦϣϝϼΧέϮψϨϣΰΎϛήϟΔόΑέϷΩΎμΘϗϻΔϓήόϤϟ.................................................81 3.2.5.ήλΎϨϋΔσέΎΧϖϳήτϟΝΫϮϤϨϟΔϴϤϨΗϢΎϗϰϠϋΩΎμΘϗΔϓήόϤϟ....................................................................81 ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ:ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ.......................................................................83 1.ΕϻϮΤΗΔϴϟΎϤϟΔϴϣϮϤόϟΔϴϤΘΣϭυΎϔΤϟϰϠϋζϣϮϬϟΔϴΗΎϧΰϴϤϟ.........................................84 1.1.ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻝﺍﻟﻀﺭﻴﺒﻲﻓﻲﻅﻝﺇﻜﺭﺍﻫﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺭﺩﻭﺩﻴﺔﻭﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕﺍﻟﻌﺩﺍﻟﺔ............................................................84 1.1.1.ΔϴϨΑΩέϮϤϟΔϴΒϳήπϟ:ΔϨϤϴϫΐήπϟΓήηΎΒϤϟΎϫΰϴϛήΗϭήϴΒϜϟ...............................................................85 2.1.1.ΩΪόΗΕΎϘϔϨϟΔϴΎΒΠϟίΰόϳϕέϮϔϟΔϴδϓΎϨΘϟ...........................................................................................86 3.1.1.ϥίϭωΎτϘϟήϴϏϞϜϴϬϤϟ.................................................................................................................87 2.1.ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔﻏﻴﺭﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔﻟﻠﺘﻘﻠﻴﺹ...............................................................................87 1.2.1.ΪϳΰΘϟήϤΘδϤϟϲϓΔϠΘϛέϮΟϷ..........................................................................................................88 2.2.1.ϢϗΎϔΗ˯ΐϋΕΎϘϔϧΔλΎϘϤϟ.................................................................................................................89 3.2.1.ΰϳΰόΗέΎϤΜΘγϻ.............................................................................................................................90 3.1.ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓﺴﻥﺇﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕﻫﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔﻟﻠﺘﺤﻜﻡﻓﻲﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﻟﻠﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ........................................................91 1.3.1.έϮτΗϢΠΣϦϳΪϟϝϼΧΕϮϨδϟϟήθόΓήϴΧϷ.......................................................................................91 2.3.1.ϢϴϴϘΗήΛήϴΑΪΘϟΔϴΎϘϠΘϟ)discrétionnaires(ΔϟϭάΒϤϟϦϣϑήσΕΎτϠδϟΔϴϣϮϤόϟϰϠϋΪϴλέΔϴϧΰϴϤϟ..............92 4.1.ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓﺍﻟﺘﻌﺠﻴﻝﺒﺈﺼﻼﺡﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ......................................................................................93 2.ΕΎ˰˰˰ΣϼλϹΔϴΗΎϧΰϴϤϟΔ˰˰˰ϴ˰˰Ύ˰˰Β˰Πϟϭ..........................................................................93 1.2.ﺇﺼﻼﺡﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥﺍﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻲﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ......................................................................................93 1.1.2.έΎσϹϡΎόϟΡϼλϺϟ......................................................................................................................94 2.1.2.ϑΪϫϷΔϴΠϴΗήΘγϻέϭΎΤϣϭΡϼλϻ...............................................................................................94 2.2.ﺍﻹﺼــﻼﺡﺍﻟﺠﺒــﺎﺌــﻲ....................................................................................................95 1.2.2.έΎσϹϡΎόϟ..................................................................................................................................96 2.2.2.έϭΎΤϣΡϼλϹ............................................................................................................................96 3.2.ﺇﺼﻼﺡﻨﻅﺎﻡﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺼﺔ............................................................................................................97 1.3.2.έΎσϹϡΎόϟ..................................................................................................................................97
8.
4 2.3.2.ϡΎψϧΔδϳΎϘϤϟΔϴΰΠϟΕΎΠΘϨϤϠϟΔϴτϔϨϟΔϠΎδϟ........................................................................................97 3.ωϭήθϣϥϮϧΎϗΔϴϟΎϤϟ2014.......................................................................................98 1.3.ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﺭﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ2014....................................................................98 1.1.3.ϕΎϴδϟϲϟϭΪϟΔϨδϟ2014:εΎόΘϧϲΠϳέΪΗΩΎμΘϗϼϟˬϲϤϟΎόϟΓΩΎϴϘΑϝϭΪϟΓΪϋΎμϟ.........................................98 2.1.3.ϮϤϧϞλϮΘϣΩΎμΘϗϼϟϲϨσϮϟϝϼΧΔϨγ2014.....................................................................................99 2.3.ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ2014...........................................................................103 1.2.3.ΰϳΰόΗ˯Ύγέ·ϭΕΎδγΆϤϟΔϳέϮΘγΪϟϊϳήδΗϭΓήϴΗϭΕΎΣϼλϹΔϴϠϜϴϬϟϯήΒϜϟ............................................103 2.2.3.ΰϴϔΤΗϮϤϨϟϱΩΎμΘϗϻϡΪΘδϤϟϢϋΩϭέΎϤΜΘγϻΔϟϭΎϘϤϟϭήϳϮτΗϭΕΎϴϟϞϴϐθΘϟ...........................................104 3.2.3.ΰϳΰόΗΕΎϴϟϚγΎϤΘϟϦϣΎπΘϟϭϲϋΎϤΘΟϻΎΠϤϟϭϲϟ..............................................................................105 4.2.3.ϞϤόϟϰϠϋέήϘΘγΕΩϮΟϮϤϟΔϴΟέΎΨϟϢϜΤΘϟϭϲϓΰΠϋΔϴϧΰϴϤϟ..........................................................105 3.3.ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕﻤﺩﺍﺨﻴﻝﻭﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔﺒﺭﺴﻡﺴﻨﺔ2014..........................................................................106 1.3.3.ΩέϮϤϟΔϴϟΎϤϟ.............................................................................................................................106 2.3.3.ΕΎϘϔϧΔϟϭΪϟ................................................................................................................................107 Δ˰˰˰ϤΗΎΧϋΔϣΎ˰˰˰..........................................................................................................109 ΕΎ˰Ϙ˰ΤϠϣΔϴΎμΣ·.......................................................................................................110
9.
5 ﻻﺌﺤﺔﺍﻟﺭﺴﻭﻡﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﻴﺔ ϥΎϴΒϣ1:ϮϤϧΞΗΎϨϟϲϠΧΪϟϡΎΨϟϲϘϴϘΤϟϝϼΧΓήΘϔϟ2007-2014....................................................................3 ϥΎϴΒϣ2:ϝΪόϣϮϤϨϟϥΪϠΒϟΎΑΔϣΪϘΘϤϟ...........................................................................................................4 ϥΎϴΒϣ3:ϮϤϧϢΠΣΕϻΩΎΒϣϊΎπΒϟϲϓ2012ΐδΣϖσΎϨϤϟ............................................................................6 ϥΎϴΒϣ4:ϮϤϧϢΠΣΕϻΩΎΒϣϊΎπΒϟϦϣ2000ϰϟ·2014.................................................................................7 ϥΎϴΒϣ5:ϢϗήϟϲϟϻΪΘγϻέΎόγϷΩϮϤϟΔϴγΎγϷ...........................................................................................8 ϥΎϴΒϣ6:έϮτΗΓέϮΗΎϔϟΔϴϗΎτϟΪϨϋΔϳΎϬϧήΒϨΘη.............................................................................................8 ϥΎϴΒϣ7:έϮτΗΓέϮΗΎϔϟΔϴϗΎτϟΪϨϋΔϳΎϬϧΖθϏ..............................................................................................9 ϥΎϴΒϣ8:ϕέΎϓέΎόγϷϭήόγέϮτΗϑήλϢϫέΪϟϞΑΎϘϣέϻϭΪϟ.....................................................................10 ϥΎϴΒϣ9:έϮτΗΕέΩΎλρΎϔγϮϔϟϪΗΎϘΘθϣϭΪϨϋΔϳΎϬϧΖθϏ............................................................................11 ϥΎϴΒϣ10:έϮτΗΕΩέϭΏϮΒΤϟΪϨϋΔϳΎϬϧΖθϏ.........................................................................................12 ϥΎϴΒϣ11:έϮτΗϑήλϭέϭϷΔΒδϨϟΎΑέϻϭΪϠϟϝϼΧΔϨγ2011ˬ2012ϭ2013................................................13 ϥΎϴΒϣ12:έϮτΗλϑήϢϫέΪϟϦϴΑήϳΎϨϳήΒϨΘηϭ2013.................................................................................13 ϥΎϴΒϣ13:έϮτΗϥΰϴϤϟϱέΎΠΘϟΏήϐϤϠϟ...................................................................................................14 ϥΎϴΒϣ14:ϊϳίϮΗΕΩέϮϟΐδΣΕΎϋϮϤΠϣϝΎϤόΘγϻ...................................................................................16 ϥΎϴΒϣ15:ΔμΣΏήϐϤϟϲϓϕϮδϟΔϴϤϟΎόϟΩΎΤΗϻϭϲΑϭέϭϷ.........................................................................16 ϥΎϴΒϣ16:ΔμΣΎϳΰϤϟΔϧέΎϘϤϟΏήϐϤϠϟ)ϝΪόϣ1999-2012(........................................................................17 ϥΎϴΒϣ17:έϮτΗΕέΩΎλΏήϐϤϟϮΤϧ˯ΎϛήθϟϦϴϳέΎΠΘϟϦϴϴδϴήϟ..................................................................18 ϥΎϴΒϣ18:ΔΒϴϛήΗΕέΩΎμϟΔϴΑήϐϤϟ)2009-2012(....................................................................................19 ϥΎϴΒϣ19:έϮτΗΕέΩΎλϦϬϤϟΔϴϤϟΎόϟΏήϐϤϠϟϦϴΑ2008ϭ2012)έΎϴϠϣϢϫέΩ(...............................................20 ϥΎϴΒϣ20:έϮτΗΕϻΩΎΒϤϟΔϴΟέΎΨϟϦϴΑΏήϐϤϟϝϭΩϭΎϴϘϳήϓ·ΏϮϨΟ˯ήΤμϟ....................................................21 ϥΎϴΒϣ21:ϊϳίϮΗΕέΎϤΜΘγϻΔϴΑήϐϤϟϲϓΝέΎΨϟϲϓϭΎϴϘϳήϓ·ΏϮϨΟ˯ήΤμϟΐδΣΔϬΟϮϟϝϼΧΔϨγ2011............22 ϥΎϴΒϣ22:έϮτΗΕΩήϳ·έΎϤΜΘγϹϲΒϨΟϷήηΎΒϤϟϰϠϋϯϮΘδϤϟϲϤϟΎόϟΐδΣϭΕΎϋϮϤΠϤϟΔϳΩΎμΘϗϻ)έΎϴϠϤΑέϻϭΩ(24 ϥΎϴΒϣ23:ΕέΎϤΜΘγϹΔϴΒϨΟϷΓήηΎΒϤϟΏήϐϤϟΎΑΐδΣϝϭΪϟ.........................................................................25 ϥΎϴΒϣ24:ΕέΎϤΜΘγϹΔϴΒϨΟϷΓήηΎΒϤϟΏήϐϤϟΎΑΐδΣΕΎϋΎτϘϟ.....................................................................25 ϥΎϴΒϣ25:έϮτΗϮϤϧΞΗΎϨϟϲϠΧΪϟϡΎΨϟέΎόγϷΎΑΔΘΑΎΜϟ.................................................................................29 ϥΎϴΒϣ26:ΔϤϫΎδϣϒϠΘΨϣήλΎϨϋΞΗΎϨϟϲϠΧΪϟϡΎΨϟϲϓϮϤϨϟϲϘϴϘΤϟ..............................................................30 ϥΎϴΒϣ27:ΪϴλήϟϱέΎΠϟϥΰϴϤϟΕ˯ΩϷΔΒδϨϟΎΑΞΗΎϨϠϟϲϠΧΪϟϡΎΨϟ...............................................................31 ϥΎϴΒϣ28:ΔϤϫΎδϣΕΎϬΠϟϲϓϖϠΧΓϭήΜϟϝϼΧΓήΘϔϟ1998-2011.................................................................57 ϥΎϴΒϣ29:ΞΗΎϨϟϲϠΧΪϟϡΎΨϟΡΎΘϤϟΩήϔϠϟΐδΣΕΎϬΠϟϝϼΧΓήΘϔϟ1998-2011...............................................57 ϥΎϴΒϣ30:έϮτΗΔϤψϧϷΔϴΟΎΘϧϹΕΎϬΠϠϟΎϣϦϴΑ1998-2011........................................................................59 ϥΎϴΒϣ31:ϊϳίϮΗΐλΎϨϣϞϐθϟΔΛΪΤϤϟΐδΣΕΎϋΎτϗρΎθϨϟϱΩΎμΘϗϻΎϣϦϴΑ2002ϭ2012)ϑϻϵΎΑ(.................65 ϥΎϴΒϣ32:ΔϴϨΑΔϨϛΎδϟΔϳήπΤϟΔϠσΎόϟΐδΣϦδϟϝΪόϣϭϞϴϐθΘϟΐδΣϯϮΘδϣΕΩΎϬθϟ....................................66 ϥΎϴΒϣ33:ΕΎϧϮϜϣήηΆϣΔϴϤϨΘϟΔϳήθΒϟ.....................................................................................................68 ϥΎϴΒϣ34:ϝΪόϣΔϟΎτΒϟΐδΣϯϮΘδϤϟϲϤϴϠόΘϟΔϨγ2012(%)......................................................................70 ϥΎϴΒϣ35:έϮτΗΕϻΪόϣήϘϔϟϖϠτϤϟϲΒδϨϟϭΔηΎθϬϟϭ................................................................................74 ϥΎϴΒϣ36:έϮτΗΩΪϋΕΎϴϧϭΎόΘϟΏήϐϤϟΎΑ....................................................................................................76 ϥΎϴΒϣ37:ΩϭΩήϣΔΒϗήϤϟΔϴΎΒΠϟϥϮϴϠϤΑϢϫέΩ............................................................................................85 ϥΎϴΒϣ38:έϮτΗϝΪόϣΔϴτϐΗϞϴΧΪϤϟΕΎϘϔϨϠϟ..............................................................................................87 ϥΎϴΒϣ39:έϮτΗΔϠΘϛέϮΟϷΔΒδϨϟΎΑΞΗΎϨϠϟϲϠΧΪϟϡΎΨϟ.................................................................................88 ϥΎϴΒϣ40:τΗέϮΕΎϘϔϧΔλΎϘϤϟΔΒδϨϟΎΑΞΗΎϨϠϟϲϠΧΪϟϡΎΨϟ..............................................................................89 ϥΎϴΒϣ41:έϮτΗΔϴϨΑΕΎϘϔϧΔϟϭΪϟ.............................................................................................................90 ϥΎϴΒϣ42:έϮτΗϦϳΪϟήηΎΒϤϟΔϨϳΰΨϠϟΒδϨϟΎΑΔΞΗΎϨϠϟϲϠΧΪϟϡΎΨϟ.....................................................................92 ϥΎϴΒϣ43:έϮτΗΪϴλήϟϲϠϜϴϬϟΔΒδϨϟΎΑΞΗΎϨϠϟϲϠΧΪϟϡΎΨϟ............................................................................92
10.
ﻋﺎﻤـــﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﻤـــﺔ 1 ﻣﻣﺔﺔــــــﻣﻣﺪﺪﻘﻘﺔﺔــــــﻣﻣﺎﺎﻋﻋ ﻴﻨﺩﺭﺝﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ2014ﻀﻤﻥﻅﺭﻓﻴﺔ،ﻤﺘﻘﻠﺒﺔ
ﻭﺇﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔﺒﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯﺒﻭﺍﺩﺭﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺍﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺤﺴﺏ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻪ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺭﻏﻡ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﺍﻟﺘﻲﺘﻤﻴﺯﺒﻠﺩ ﻜﻝﺤﺩﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ.ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺘﻨﺤﻭ ،ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭﺓﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺘﻌﺎﻓﻰﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻴﺎﺍﻨﻁﻼﻗﺎﻤﻥﺍﻟﻨﺼﻑﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲﻟﺴﻨﺔ2013. ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﺴﻴﺘﺄﻜﺩﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﻰﺨﻼﻝﺴﻨﺔ2014،ﻤﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻔﻴﺩﺍﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ،ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔﻭﻤﻥﺘﺤﺴﻥﻭﻀﻌﻴﺔﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺴﺎﻤﻴﻝﺍﺴﺘﻌﺎﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﻥﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻴﺎﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﻴﻥ ﻟﺩﻯ.ﻭﺘﺒﻘﻰﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭﺤﺴﺏ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ.ﻓﻔﻲﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ،ﻻﺘﺯﺍﻝﺍﻟﻌﻤ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺘﻌﻭﻕ ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﻴﻘﺔﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﺘﻌﺭﻓﻪ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﻤﻊ ﺨﺎﺼﺔﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕﻴﻨﺘﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﻓﻲ ،ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥﻓﻴﻪﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﺴﺠﻝ ﺃﻥﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺸﺎ ﺃﻜﺒﺭﻤﻊ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ.ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻭﺇﺫﺍﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔﺴﻠﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺭﺍﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﺭﺍﺘﺏ ﺘﺤﺘﻝ ﺘﺯﺍﻝ ﻻ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﻲ،ﺁﻓﺎﻕ ﻓﺈﻥﻨﻤﻭﻫﺎﺴﻫﻲ ﺘﻅﻝﺃﻴﻀﺎﻤﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﺔﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺘﺴﺠﻴﻝ ﻤﻊ،ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥﻓﻲﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺘﺒﻘﻰﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯﺒﻔﻌﻝﻋﻭﺍﻤﻝﻫﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔﻀﺎﻏﻁﺔ. ،ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﻭﻋﻠﻰﺴﺘﻅﻝﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺁﻓﺎﻕﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺒﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁﻭﺸﻤﺎﻝﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ)MENA(ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺘﺤﺕ ﺍﻹﻜﺭﺍﻫﺎﺕﻤﺨﺎﺽ ﻴﻔﺭﺯﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻴﺔﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ.ﻭﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ،ﺫﻟﻙﻓﺈﻥﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﻟﺴﻨﺔ2014ﺴﺘﻅﻝﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ+)3,8%(،ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﻨﺠﺤﺕ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻋﻭﺩﺓﻭ ﺍﻷﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺘﺒﺎﺏﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ،ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴ ﺇﻁﻼﻕ ﻭﺘﻡﺔﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟ ﻤﻊ ﻤﻭﺍﺯﺍﺓ ﺍﻟﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔﺘﻌﺎﻓﻲﻟ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻘﺏﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﻓﻲﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ،ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻴﻙﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲﻟﻠﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ. ﻭﻓﻲﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻌﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﻅﻝ،ﺘﺘﻭﺍﺼﻝﻤﺠﻬﻭﺩﺍﺕﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﻴﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﻟﻜﻲﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲﻋﻠﻰﺍﻹﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻓﺘﺊ ﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺫﻱﻨﻤﻭﺍﻟ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻤﻊ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻴﺴﺠﻠﻪ ﻩﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ.ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻟﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﻥ ﻟﻡ ﻅﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ،ﺫﻟﻙ ﻜﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓﻭ ،ﻟﻭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺩﺕ ﻫﺎﻤﺔ ﺘﺤﻭﻻﺕ ﺸﻬﺩﺕ ﺃﻨﻬﺎﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔﻟﻨﻅﻡ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔﺘﻭﻓﺭﻓﺭﺼﺎﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔﻟﻠﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙﻭﺍﻻﺭﺘﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ.ﻭﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭﺒﻌﺽﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺤﺎﺕﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﺞ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻲﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲﻤﻥ ﺍﻟ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﺨﺘﺭﺍﻕﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓﺍﻟ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﻓﻲﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺘﻴﺔﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻭﻋﺼﺭﻨﺔ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺴﻌﻴﺎ ، ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ.ﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺒﻤﻠﺤﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﻲ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﻭﻴﻘﺘﻀﻲﺍﻹﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕﺍﻟﺘﻲﺘﻌﻴﻕ ﻻﺯﺍﻟﺕ ﻋﺒﺭ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺒﻌﺽﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻌﻹ ﺠﻠﺔﻋﺎﺩﺓﺘﻤﻭﻗﻊﺒﻼﺩﻨﺎﻓﻲﺨﺭﻴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔﻤﺘﻤﻴﺯ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ. ﻭﺇﻟﻰﺠﺎﻨﺏﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﻜﺒﺭﻯﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﻟﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ ﻭﻀﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ،ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﻴﺔﺴﻴﺤﺘﻝﺒ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕ ﺈﻋﺎﺩﺓﻭﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔﺒﺎﺭﺯﺓ ﻤﻜﺎﻨﺔﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﻤﺎ ﺍﻹ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺒﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻥﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔﻭﺍﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻬﻭﺩﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱﻭﻗﻀﺎﻴﺎ ﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻝﻭﺍﻟﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔﺍﻟﻬﺸﺎﺸﺔ ﻭﻤﺤﺎﺭﺒﺔﻭﺘﻘﻠﻴﺹﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺍﺭﻕ ﺃﺠﻝﻀﻤﺎﻥﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻭﺍﺓﻓﻲ،ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔﻤﻥﻤﻨﻅﻭﺭ،ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺇﻟﻰﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ. ﻓﻲ ﺒﻼﺩﻨﺎ ﻁﻤﻭﺡ ﺇﻥﺘﺭﺍﻋﻲ ،ﺘﺸﺎﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﺩﻴﻤﻭﻗﺭﺍﻁﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﺱ ﻭﻀﻊﺍﺤﺘﺭﺍﻡﻜﺭﺍﻤﺔﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻥﻓﻲﺇﻁﺎﺭﺘﻨﻤﻭﻱ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﺩﻤﺞﻜﻔﻴﻝﺒﻀﻤﺎﻥﻨﻤﻭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﺸﻜﻝﺘﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻴﻔﺭﺽ ،ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ،ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕﻭﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥﻟ ﻭﺍﺯﻥﻠﺤﻜﺎﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉﻗﺭﺏﻟﻘﻀﺎﻴﺎﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ. ﺴﻴﺭﻜﺯ ،ﺴﺒﻕ ﻟﻤﺎ ﻭﺇﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲﻤﺴﺎﺀﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔﻭﻭ ﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻴﺔﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻴﻨﺩﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻲﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔﻟﺴﻨﺔ2014ﻤﻥﺨﻼﻝﻗﺭﺍﺀﺓﻤﺘﺠﺩﺩﺓﻭ ﺍﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﻟﻬﺎﺘﻪﻤﻥﻤﻨﻅﻭﺭﺍﻹﺸﻜﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔﻓﻲﺒ ﺘﺘﺴﻡ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻅﻝﺎﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﺁﺜﺎﺭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔﻭﺘﻨﺎﻤﻲﺒﻭﺍﺩﺭﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵﻋﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. ﻭﻴﺴﻌﻰﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺇﻟﻰﻭﺘﻭﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﻟﻤﻀﺎﻤﻴﻥ ﺘﺅﺴﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ2014،ﺜﻼﺙ ﺨﻼﻝ ﻤﻥﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔﺒ ﺒﺩﺀﺍﻭﺇ ﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕﻗﻤﺭﻭﺭﺍ ،ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻠﻴﻤﻲﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕﻴﻌﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻭﻫﻭﻴﻭﺍﺠﻪﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻝﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲﺁﻓﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺼﺭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ،ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻫﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻨﺘﻬﺎﺀﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺘﻁﺭﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲﺍﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺘﻠﺞ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻨ ﺴﻌﻴﺎ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺡﻤﻘﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻨﺯﺍﻫﺔﻭﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﻋﺔ،ﻭﺫﻟﻙﺩﻭﻥﺘﺠﺎﻫﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔﺍﻹﻜﺭﺍﻫﺎﺕﻭﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔﺍﻟﺭﻫﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻋﺩﺓﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺭﻭﺤﺔﺒﻼﺩﻨﺎ.
11.
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ:ﻤﺤﻴﻁﻪ ﻓﻲ
ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﻭﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ:ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺹ 2 ﻝﻝﻭﻭﻷﻷﺍﺍ ﺀﺀﺰﺰﺠﺠﻟﻟﺍﺍ::ﻱﻱﻮﻮﻬﻬﺠﺠﻟﻟﺍﺍﻭﻭ ﻲﻲﻟﻟﻭﻭﺪﺪﻟﻟﺍﺍ ﻪﻪﻄﻄﻴﻴﺤﺤﻣﻣ ﻲﻲﻓﻓ ﺏﺏﺮﺮﻐﻐﻤﻤﻟﻟﺍﺍ::ﺹﺹﺮﺮﻔﻔﻟﻟﺍﺍ ﺕﺕﺎﺎﻳﻳﺪﺪﺤﺤﺘﺘﻟﻟﺍﺍﻭﻭ ،ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺨﻤﺱ ﺒﻌﺩﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻴﻌﺭﻑﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲﻤﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﺘﻨﺎﻤﻲ ﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺒﻭﺍﺩﺭﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻬﺸﺎﺸﺔ ﻤﻥ.ﻓﺈﻥ ،ﻭﻫﻜﺫﺍﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺍﻟﺨﺭﻭﺝ ﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﺍﺴﺘﻁﺎﻋﺕ ﻗﺩﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻤﻥﺍﻟﺭﻜﻭﺩﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻟﺘﺩﺨﻝ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ.ﻜﻤﺎﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺍ ﺘﺤﺴﻨﺎ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻴﻌﺭﻑﺤﻴﻥ ﻓﻲﻴﻅﻝﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﻓﻲﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔﺭﻏﻡ ﻗﻭﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅﻩ. ﻓ ﻨﻤﻭﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻴﺴﺠﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻭﻴﻨﺘﻅﺭﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻲ2,9%ﺴﻨﺔ2013،ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ3,2%ﺴﻨﺔ2012.،ﺤﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻴﺭﺘﻘﺏﺴﻨﺔ2014ﺒﻨﺤﻭ3,6%،ﻭﻓﻘﺎﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ.ﻭﺘﺘﻭﻗﻊﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔﻨﻤﻭﺍﻤﻌﺘﺩﻻﻓﻲﺤﺠﻡﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔﺴﻴﺒﻠﻎ2,5%ﺴﻨﺔ2013ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻭﻟﻥ4,5%ﺴﻨﺔ20141 ، ﻴ ﺤﻴﺙﻅﻝﺩﻭﻥﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺍﻟﻤﺴﺠﻝﺨﻼﻝﺍﻟﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ)5,4%(. ﻭﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺩﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻅﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ،ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ.ﻓﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔﺇﻟﻰﺍﻹﻜﺭﺍﻫﺎﺕﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻀﻌﻑﻨﻤﻭﺍﻟ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤﻝ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ،ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔﻭﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻤﺎ ، ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﺍﻋﺎﺕ،ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺸﻤﺎﻝ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺇﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﻓﻲﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ.،ﺤﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺎﻓﻅﺩﻭﻝﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀ ﺠﻨﻭﺏﺒﻭﺍﻋﺩﺓ ﺂﻓﺎﻕ. ﺃﻤﺎﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ،ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲﻓﺈﻥﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵﺍﻟﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﻓﻲﺍﻟﺸﺭﻴﻜﻴﻥ ،ﻭﺇﺴﺒﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ،ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ،ﻟﻠﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﻴﻥﺴﻴﺴﺎﻫﻡﺍﻷ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻝ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﻓﻲﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻅﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﺩﺍﺀﺍﺕﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﺎﺘﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ. ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺃﻥ ﻏﻴﺭﺍﻟﻅﺭﻓﻴﺔﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺃﻥ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻻﺘﺤﺠﺏﻋﻨﺎﺍﻻ ﺒﻌﺽﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺔ ﺘﻁﺒﻌﻪ ﻻﺯﺍﻟﺕ.ﻓﻘﺩﺴﺠﻝﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓﺍﻨﻀﻤﺎﻤ ﺇﺜﺭ ،ﺎﺩﻱﻪﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺘﺭﻜﻴﺎ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻭﺘﻭﻗﻴﻊ ،ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓﻭﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ،ﺃﻜﺎﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔﻤﻥﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔﺩﻭﻝ ﻤﻊ ،ﺃﺨﺭﻯﻓﻲ ﻻﺴﻴﻤﺎﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ.ﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﻻ ،ﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﻤﻊﺨﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻥﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻗﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡﺨﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﺍﺘﻪ ﺤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔﻟﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥﺍﻟﺘﻲﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺭﺘﻜﺯﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻨﻅﻡ ﺘﻨﻭﻴﻊ،ﻭﺍﻻﺭﺘﻘﺎﺀﻓﻲﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ،ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔﻭﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕﺘﺤﺴﻥﻤﻬﻡﻓﻲ ﻭﻨﻭﻋﻲﺤﺼﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﺔﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ.ﻭﻟﺃﺩﺕ ﻘﺩﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁﻫﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ،ﻟﻠﻤﻐﺭﺏﺍﻟ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺌﻨﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﻔﻌﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﻴﻥ،ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺼﺎﺩﻓﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷ ﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡﺩﺍﺀﺍﺕ. ﺍﻻ ﺘﺒﺩﻭ ،ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﻟﻬﺎﺘﻪ ﻭﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔﻟ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔﻠﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔﻴﺔﻴﻌﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲﺸﺭﻜﺎﺀﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﺒﻤﺎ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺘﻴﺤﻪﻓﺭﺹﺍ ﺼﻭﺍﺏ ﻴﻌﺯﺯ ﻤﺎ ﻭﻫﻭ ،ﻭﺍﻋﺩﺓﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻟﺘﻭﺠﻪﺒﻼﺩﻨﺎ ﺒﻪ ﺃﺨﺫﺕ ﺍﻟﺫﻱﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ-ﻤﻊ ﺠﻨﻭﺏﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﺍﻹﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺔ.ﺠ ﻴﺒﺫﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﻤﺎﻓﺘﺊ ،ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻔﻌﻝﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺘﻪ ﻟﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻬﻭﺩﺍ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔﻭﺍﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔﻤﻊﻨﺤﻭ ﺴﻌﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻫﺫﻩﺇﺫﻜﺎﺀﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔﺍﻻﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲﺒﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺴﺒﻝ ﺸﺘﻰ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻋﺒﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥﺘﻨﻤ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺤﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﻲﻭﻴﺔﺘﺭﺘﻜﺯﺍﻟﻤﻌ ﺘﻘﺎﺴﻡ ﻋﻠﻰﺎﻭﺍﻟﺨﺒﺭ ﺭﻑﺍﺕﺍﻟﺘﻲﺃﻥ ﻴﻤﻜﻥﺘﻭﻓﺭﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻭﻻﺕﺍﻷﺒﻨﺎﻙﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ. ﻓﺈﻥ ،ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺘﻌﻴﺸﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻸﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﻭﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻥ ﻭﻓﻀﻼﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﻗﺩﺠﺎﺫﺒﻴﺘﻪ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻴﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻻﺯﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺩﻋﻭﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻁﺎﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺘﻪ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔﻭﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔﺍ،ﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔﺒﻤﻥ ﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﻋﻠﻰﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲﺍﻻﻜﺭﺍﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻫﺎﺕﻴﻁﺭﺤﻬﺎﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ. ﻭﻓﻲﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻨﻔﺱﻴﺘﻌﻴﻥ ،ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺩﺓﺒﺎﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔﺘﺸﻬﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ،ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻗﻔﺯﺓﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺭﺓ ﺒﻌﺩﻟﻬﺫﻩﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﺒﻭﻀﻊ ﺘﻭﺠﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ،ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺸﺭﺍﻜﺔ ﺃﺴﺱﻭﺍﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ. 1ΔϴϤϟΎόϟ ΓέΎΠΘϟ ϢΠΣ ϮϤϧ ώϠΒϳ ϥ ΐϘΗήϳ2,9%ΔϨγ2013ϲϟϭΪϟ ΪϘϨϟ ϕϭΪϨλ ΕΎόϗϮΗ ΐδΣ) ϕΎϓˬϲϤϟΎόϟ ΩΎμΘϗϻήΑϮΘϛ2013.(
12.
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ:ﻤﺤﻴﻁﻪ ﻓﻲ
ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﻭﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ:ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺹ 3 1.ϮϤϨϟΩΎμΘϗϻϱϲϤϟΎόϟ:εΎόΘϧϲΠϳέΪΗ 1.1.ﺘﺄﻜﺩﻭﻋﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺨﻼﻝ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺒﻲ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﻟﻴﺴﺠﻝ ﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻴﻨﺘﻌﺵ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ3,6%ﺴﻨﺔ2014ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ2,9%ﺴﻨﺔ2013 ﻭ3,2%ﺴﻨﺔ2012ﺤﺴﺏ ،ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ.ﻟ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﻴﻌﺯﻯﻸﺩﺍﺀﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﻭﻋﻭﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻨﻲ.ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺘﺯﺍﻝ ﻭﻻﻓﻲ ﻗﻭﻱ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ،ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲﺭﻏﻡﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊﻨﻤﻭﻫﺎﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺡ. ﺃﻥ ﻏﻴﺭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕﺘﺒﻘﻰﻭ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﻫﺸﺔﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﻗﺩﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻅﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔﺃﻭﺘﻀﻴﻴﻕﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔﺃﻭﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻓﻲ. ﺴﻨﺔ ﺨﻼﻝ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻴﻅﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻭﻤﻥ2013ﻟﻴﺴﺠﻝ1,2%ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ1,5%ﺴﻨﺔ 2012ﺃﻥ ﻗﺒﻝ ،ﻴﺘﻌﺯﺯﺴﻨﺔ2014ﻟﻴﺒﻠﻎ2,1.%ﻭﻗﺩﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﺘﺨﺫﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﻓﻲﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﺨﻁﺭﻋﻠﻰﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻀﻔﺘﻲ. ﻤﺒﻴﺎﻥ1:ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻨﻤﻭ2007-2014 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2007200820092010201120122013)Ε(2014)Ε( ΔϴϣΎϨϟ ϝϭΪϟ ϢϟΎόϟ ΔϣΪϘΘϤϟ ϝϭΪϟ έΪμϤϟ:ϲϟϭΪϟ ΪϘϨϟ ϕϭΪϨλ ﻟﻴﺒﻠﻎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺴﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ1,6%ﺴﻨﺔ2013ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ2,8%ﺴﻨﺔ2012ﺴﻨﺔ ﻴﺘﻌﺯﺯ ﺃﻥ ﻗﺒﻝ ، 2014ﺇﻟﻰ ﻟﻴﺼﻝ2,6.%ﻟﻸﺴﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺒﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻤﺩﻋﻭﻤﺎ ﻗﻭﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻭﺴﻴﻅﻝ،ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺒﺎﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵﺴﻭﻕ،ﺍﻟﺸﻐﻝ ﻭﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕﻨﻬﺞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ. ﻭﻓﻲﺍﻟﻨ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻴﺘﻌﺯﺯ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻨﺘﻅﺭ ،ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﺎﺘﺞ2013ﻟﻴﺴﺠﻝ2%،ﻏﺭﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰﺴﻨﺔ2012،ﻗﺒﻝ ﻴ ﺃﻥﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊﺇﻟﻰ1,2%ﺴﻨﺔ ﺨﻼﻝ2014.ﻭﺴﻴﺘﻌﺯﺯﻨﻤﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻨﻲﺒﺎﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻁﻤﻭﺤﺔ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺇﻗﻼﻉ ﺨﻁﺔ ﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻤﺼﺤﻭﺒﺔ،ﻭﺒﺎﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﻋﻥ ﻓﻀﻼ ،ﺍﻟﻴﻥ.
13.
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ:ﻤﺤﻴﻁﻪ ﻓﻲ
ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﻭﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ:ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺹ 4 ﻤﺒﻴﺎﻥ2:ﺍﻟ ﻤﻌﺩﻝﻨﻤﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2010201120122013)Ε(2014)Ε( ΔϴϜϳήϣ Ϸ ΓΪΤΘϤϟ ΕΎϳϻϮϟ ϥ ΎΑΎϴϟ Ϸ ΔϘτϨϣϭϭέ έΪμϤϟ:ϲϟϭΪϟ ΪϘϨϟ ϕϭΪϨλ ﺘﻤﻜﻨﺕ ﻭﻗﺩﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻨﻤﻭﺍ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﺤﻴﺙ ،ﻁﻭﻴﻼ ﺩﺍﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺭﻭﺝ0,3% ﺨﻼﻝﺍﻟﺭﺒﻊﺴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ2013ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ0,2%ﺨﻼﻝﺍﻟﺭﺒﻊﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ.ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵﺍﻷﻟﻤﺎﻨﻲ ﺩﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺃﻗﻝ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻲﺤﺩﺓ ﺨﻔﺕ ﺤﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ،ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻜﻝﺇﻴﻁﺎﻟﻴﺎﻭﺇﺴﺒﺎﻨﻴﺎ. ﺴﻨﺔ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻴﻨﺘﻌﺵ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻭﻤﻥ2014ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺍ ﻟﻴﺴﺠﻝ1,0%،ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﺘﻴﻥ ﺴﻨﺘﻴﻥ)0,6-%ﺴﻨﺔ2012ﻭ0,4-%ﺴﻨﺔ2013.(ﻫﺫ ﻭﻴﻌﺯﻯﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺍ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏﺍ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ.ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺠﻬﺔ ﻤﻥﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡ ،ﺍﺘﺨﺫﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺒﻨﺎﻙ ﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲﻭﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ.،ﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﻤﻊﻴﺒﻘﻰﺍﻟﻁﻠﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﺏﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ،ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﺍﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔﻤﻥ ﻜﻝ ﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺨﻔﺽﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ.ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻭﻤﻥﺃﻥﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻴﺘﻌﺯﺯﺴﻨﺔ2014ﻓﻲﻤﻥ ﻜﻝﺃﻟﻤﺎﻨﻴﺎ)1,4% ﺒﻌﺩ0,5%ﺴﻨﺔ2013(ﻭﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ)1,0%ﺒﻌﺩ0,2(%،ﺴﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﺤﻴﻥ ﻓﻲﻓﻲ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﻤﻥ ﻜﻝﺇﻴﻁﺎﻟﻴﺎ )0,7%ﺒﻌﺩ1,8-%(ﻭﻓﻲﺇﺴﺒﺎﻨﻴﺎ)0,2%ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ1,3-.(% ﺴ ﻜﻤﺎﺘﻅﻝﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻌﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻐﻝ ﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﻀﻌﻴﺔ.ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻓﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ2 ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﻌﺩﻝ ﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻤﻥ ،،ﺴﻨﺔ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻟﻴﺴﺠﻝ2014ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺎ ﺭﻗﻤﺎ 12,3%ﻓﻲﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺭﻭﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ11,1%ﻭ ﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ ﻓﻲ12,5%ﻭ ،ﺇﻴﻁﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ18,6%ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻓﻲ ﻭ28%ﺍﺴﺒﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻓﻲﻭ28,4%ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻴﻭﻨﺎﻥ.ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔﻟﺩﻯﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏﺴﻨﺔ2012ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻨﺎﻥ ﻤﺜﻝ ،ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ)ﻤﻥ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ55(%ﻭﺇﺴﺒﺎﻨﻴﺎ)53(%ﻭﺇﻴﻁﺎﻟﻴﺎ)35.(% ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻟﻠﺤﻔﺎﻅﺍﻵﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﺘﺨﺫﺕ ،ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ3 ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺘﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﻀﺒﺎﻁ ﻭﺘﻭﻁﻴﺩ ،ﻭﺘﻭﺤﻴﺩﺍﻹﺸﺭﺍﻑﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻠﺔﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓﺍﻻﻟﺘﺯﺍﻡ ﻋﻥ ﻓﻀﻼ ،ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺜﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙﺒﺎﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﻭﺍﻟﺸﻐﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﺒﺭﻯ. ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﻴﻥ ﺜﻘﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭﺃﻥ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺸﺄﻥ ﻭﻤﻥﻭﺇﻨﻌﺎﺵﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. ﻭﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ،ﻨﻤﻭﻫﺎ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺭﻏﻡﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ،ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺭﺘﻘﺏﺘﺴﺠﻝﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻨﻤﻭﺍ4,5%ﺴﻨﺔ2013ﻭﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ5,1%ﺴﻨﺔ2014ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ4,9%ﺴﻨﺔ2012. ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊﺃﻥﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻓﻲﻨﻤﻭﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ)6,5%ﺴﻨﺔ2014ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ6,3%ﺴﻨﺔ 2013(،ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺒﻔﻀﻝ)7,3%ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ7,6%ﺴﻨﺔ2013(ﻀﻌﻑ ﺭﻏﻡ ،ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ )5,1%ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ3,8%ﺴﻨﺔ2013.( ﻭﻴﻅﻝﺍ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺩﻋﻭﻤﺎ ،ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺭﻙ ﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ.ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﺜﻘﻠﻪ ﻴﻠﻘﻲ ،ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻴﻤﺎ ،ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺘﻌﺜﺭ ﻓﺈﻥ ،ﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﻤﻊ ﺍﻷ ﻟﻠﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻝ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏﻭﻟﻴﺔ.ﻻ ،ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ 2Θϗϻ ΔϴϤϨΘϟϭ ϥϭΎόΘϟ ΔϤψϨϣϞϐθϟ ϕϮγ ϕΎϓ ˬΔϳΩΎμ2013ΖθϏ ˬ2013. 3ϝϼΧ Ϧϣ ˬϚϟΫϭϕϭΪϨμϟϲΑέϭϷέήϘΘγϼϟϲϟΎϤϟίϮϴϟϮϳ ϲϓ ˬϪπϳϮόΗ ϢΗ ϱάϟ2012ˬΔϴϟϵΎΑΔϴΑέϭϷέήϘΘγϼϟΰϫΎϨϳ ϲϟΎϣ ϑϼϐΑ500 έϻϭΩ έΎϴϠϣ.
14.
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ:ﻤﺤﻴﻁﻪ ﻓﻲ
ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﻭﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ:ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺹ 5 ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺍﺯﻴﻝ ﻤﺜﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕ ﺘﺯﺍﻝﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺘﻘﻠﺼﺕ ﺤﻴﺙ ، ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻋﻡ ﻫﻭﺍﻤﺵ.ﻭﻓﻲﻅﻝﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓﻤﻥ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺘﺭﺴﺎﻨﺔ ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻴﺘﻌﻴﻥ ، ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕﻋﺎﻟﻴ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﺤﻔﺎﻅﻜ ﺔﻔﻴﻠﺔﺒﻟﺴﻜﺎﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺘﻠﺒﻴﺔ.ﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻭﻴﺠﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻡ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ. 2.1.ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺁﻓﺎﻕ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﻓﻲﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺸﻤﺎﻝﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁﻓﻲ ﻅﻝﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﺒﺎﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻭﻑﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔﻏﻴﺭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺠﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺭﺘﻘﺏﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺸﻤﺎﻝ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺩﻭﻝﻨﻤﻭﺍﻀﻌﻴﻔﺎﺴﻨﺔ ﺨﻼﻝ2013،ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻻﺕﻭ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝﻟﻠﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ.ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﺘﺒﺎﻁﺄﻟﻠﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺤﻭﺍ ﺇﻟﻰﻟﻲ2,1%ﺴﻨﺔ2013،ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ4,6%ﺴﻨﺔ2012ﻗﺒﻝ ، ﺃﻥﺴﻨﺔ ﺘﺘﺤﺴﻥ2014ﻟﺘﺒﻠﻎ3,8.% ﻭﺴﺘﻌﺭﻑﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓﻟﻠﻨﻔﻁﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎﻓﻲﻤﻌﺩﻝﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺴﻨﺔ2013ﻟﻴﺴﺠﻝ1,9%،ﺒﻌﺩﻤﺎﺒﻠﻎﻨﺴﺒﺔ5,4% ﺴﻨﺔ2012،ﻗﺒﻝﺃﻥﻴﺤﻘﻕﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺸﺎﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ4%ﺴﻨﺔ2014.ﻭﻗﺩﺘﺄﺜﺭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺨﻼﻝﺴﻨﺔ2013ﺒﺎﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ،ﻓﻲ ﺨﺎﺼﺔﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕﻭﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ،ﺃﻥ ﻏﻴﺭﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺸﺄﻥ ﻤﻥﻓﻲﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡﺩﻋﻡﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﻲﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ. ﻭﻓﻲﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓﻟﻠﻨﻔﻁﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ،ﺘﺴﺠﻴﻝﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵﻨﺴﺒﻲﺨﻼﻝﺴﻨﺘﻲ2013ﻭ2014،ﻭﺫﻟﻙﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ2,8% ﻭ3,1%ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ،ﺒﻌﺩﻤﺎﺘﺒﺎﻁﺄﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺇﻟﻰﺤﺩﻭﺩ2%ﺴﻨﺔ2012.ﻭﻤﻥﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊﺃﻥﺍﻟ ﻴﻌﺭﻑﻨﻤﻭﺘﺤﺴﻨﺎﺴﻨﺔ 2014ﻓﻲﻤﻥ ﻜﻝﻤﺼﺭﻭﺘﻭﻨﺱ)2,8%ﻭ3,7%ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ(،ﺒﻌﺩﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅﺍﻟﻤﺴﺠﻝﺴﻨﺔ2013)1,8%ﻭ 3,0%ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ.(ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ،ﻫﺸﺔ ﺘﻅﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺁﻓﺎﻕ ﺃﻥ ﻏﻴﺭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻻﺕﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔﻓﻲﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﻭﻀﻌﻑﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﻓﻲﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ،ﺸﺭﻴﻜﻬﺎﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ. ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺘﻅﻝﻓﻲﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎ ﺴﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ،ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ2014 ﺇﻟﻰﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ10,3%ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ12,3%ﺴﻨﺔ2013،ﻭﺫﻟﻙﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﺎﺒﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ.ﻭﺘﺒﻘﻰﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕﺍﻟﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻜﺒﺭﻯﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ،ﺨﺎﺼﺔﻤﺼﺭﻭﺘﻭﻨﺱ،ﺭﻏﻡﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊﺴﻨﺔ2014،ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔﺍﻟﺘﺤﺴﻥﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻘﺏﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. ﻭﻤﻥﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﻅﺭﺃﻥﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ ﺤﺩﺓ ﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩﺴﻨﺔ2013ﻓﻲﻤﻥ ﻜﻝﻤﺼﺭﻭﺘﻭﻨﺱ)14,7%ﻭ6,8%ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ(،ﻭﺫﻟﻙﺒﺴﺒﺏﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔﻭﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ،ﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻟﻴﺴﺠﻝ2014)13,2%ﻭ4,3%ﻤﻥﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ.(ﻭﻓﻲﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ،ﺘﺒﺩﻭﺁﻓﺎﻕﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ،ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻤﺸﺠﻌﺔﺃﻨﻪ ﻏﻴﺭﻓﻲﻅﻝﺘﻘﻠﺹﻫﻭﺍﻤﺵﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ، ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻝ ﻴﺘﻌﻴﻥﺍﻟ ﻤﻥﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔﻟﻠﺩﻋﻡﺍﻟﻤﻌﻤﻡﺒ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻟﻪ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺌﺢ ﻜﻝ ﻋﻠﻰﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔﺘﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕﺒﺸﻜﻝﺠﻴﺩ،ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ. ﻭﻤﻥϯήΧ ΔϬΟˬϳϊϗϮΘϥήϤΘδϳΰΠόϟ νΎϔΨϧϲϓΏΎδΤϟϱέΎΠϟϲϓϢψόϣϥΪϠΒϟΓΩέϮΘδϤϟςϔϨϠϟˬΎσΎΒΗέ ΩϮϤϠϟ ΔϴϤϟΎόϟ έΎόγϷ νΎϔΨϧΎΑΔϴγΎγϷϦδΤΗϭΕΪΎϋΔΣΎϴδϟΕέΩΎμϟϭϭΔλΎΨϟ ΕϼϳϮΤΘϟ. 3.1.ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﺍﻟﻘﻭﻱﻓﻲﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎﺠﻨﻭﺏﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀ ﺭﻏﻡﻀﻌﻑﻨﻤﻭ،ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺘﻭﺍﺼﻝﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ،ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊﺴﺠﻝﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﻬﺎﻨﻤﻭﺍﺒﻨﺤﻭ5%ﺴﻨﺔ2013ﻭ6%ﺴﻨﺔ2014ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ4,9%ﺴﻨﺔ2012. ﺃﻥ ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊﻴﻅﻝﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻗﻭﻴﺎﻟﻠﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻓﻲ)7%ﺴﻨﺔ2014ﺒﻌﺩ5,8%ﺴﻨﺔ 2013(ﻭﻓﻲﺍﻟﺩﺨﻝ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩ)8,1%ﺒﻌﺩ6,5%(.ﺤﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ،ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ ﺴﺘﺴﺠﻝﺍﻟﺩﺨﻝ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻥﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺍ3,9%ﺴﻨﺔ2014ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ3,3%ﺴﻨﺔ2013،ﺘﺄﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﻀﻌﻑﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ. ﻭﻴﻅﻝﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺭﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ.ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ،ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺸﻜﻝ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ،ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺨﻼﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ.،ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻭﺇﻟﻰ
15.
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ:ﻤﺤﻴﻁﻪ ﻓﻲ
ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﻭﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ:ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺹ 6 ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻼﺤﺔ ﻜﺎﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺭﺍﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ. ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻴﺭﺘﻘﺏﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﺠﺯﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ3%ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻤﻥﺴﻨ ﺨﻼﻝﺘﻲ2013 ﻭ2014،ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ2,8%ﺴﻨﺔ2012ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻤﻊ ،.ﻓﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓﻟﻠﻨﻔﻁ،ﺴﻴﺘﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ ﻘﻠﺹﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻴﺎﺒﺴﺒﺏﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓﻓﻲﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ،ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡﺴﻨﺘﻴﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻭﺫﻟﻙﺍﻟﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻤﻥ )2011ﻭ2012(. ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ ﻭﺴﻴﻅﻝﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻓﻲﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻓﻲﻓﻴﻪ ﻤﺘﺤﻜﻡ)25%ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻤﻥ(، ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻋﻠﻰﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭﺭﺼﻴﺩﺍﻟﺩﺨﻝ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ.ﻭﺴﺘﻌﺭﻑﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﺔﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ ﻓﻘﺭﺍ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭﺒﻔﻀﻝ ،ﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓﺘﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻗﺒﻝ ،ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺨﻼﻝ ﻤﻊﻨﻬﺎﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺒﻠﻭﻍ. ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺘﺯﺍﻝ ﻻ ،ﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﻤﻊ،ﺤﻴﺙﺘﻅﻝﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻓﻲﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀﺘﺴﺠﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺇﺫ ،ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻲ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﻬﺎ ﺭﻏﻡ ،ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ6,3%ﺴﻨﺔ2014ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ6,9%ﺴﻨﺔ 2013ﻭ9%ﺴﻨﺔ2012.ﺘﺯﺍﻝ ﻻ ﺍﻟﺸﻐﻝ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺃﻥ ﻜﻤﺎ،ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﺓﺨﺎﺼﺔ،ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﻓﺌﺔ ﻟﺩﻯﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻅﻝﻓﻴﻪﺍﻟﻌﻤﻝ ﻅﺭﻭﻑﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺘﺤﺴﻨﻬﺎ ﺭﻏﻡ ﺼﻌﺒﺔ. ﺘﻌﺯﺯﺕ ،ﺠﺎﻨﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥﺨﺎﺼﺔ ،ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕﻤﺠﺎﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺭﺍﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ،ﺤﻴﺙﺸﻜﻠﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺕ5,7%ﺍﻟﻤﺒ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﻥﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ2008-2012،ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ5,2%ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ2003-2007. 4.1.ﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻤﺭﺘﻘﺏ ﺘﺤﺴﻥ2014ﺒﻌﺩﺃﺩﺍﺀﻀﻌﻴﻑﺴﻨﺔ 2013 ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺘﺘﻭﻗﻊﻨﻤﻭ ﻴﺴﺠﻝ ﺃﻥﺤﺠﻡﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕﻟﻠ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ4 ﻨﻤﻭﺍﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﺍﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ2,5%ﺴﻨﺔ 20135 ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ2,3%ﺴﻨﺔ ﺨﻼﻝ2012.ﻭﻴﻌﺯﻯﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻑ)2-%(ﺭﻏﻡ ،ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﻱﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﻟﻁﻠﺏ. ﻭﻟﻘﺩﺸﻬﺩﺤﺠﻡﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊﺨﻼﻝﺴﻨﺔ2012ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅﺍﺤﺎﺩﺍﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ2,4%ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻌﺩﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ5,5% ﺴﻨﺔ ﺨﻼﻝ2011ﺤﻴﺙﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ1,1%ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺔ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ3,8%ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ ﺃﻨﺤﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﻓﻲ.ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺭﻜﻭﺩﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺤﻘﻘﺕ ،ﺠﻬﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻤﻥﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﺎ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ4,9%ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﻓﻲﻭﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺒﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻤﺩﻋﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺭﺍﺒﻁﺔ)11,6%(ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ)11.(% ﻤﺒﻴﺎﻥ3:ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻨﻤﻭ2012ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺤﺴﺏ -4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14% ΔϴϟΎϤθϟ ΎϜϳήϣ ΎΑέϭ Ύϴγ ςγϭϷ ϕήθϟ ΎϴϘϳήϓ· ΔϠϘδϤϟ ϝϭΪϟ ΔτΑέ ΔϴΑϮϨΠϟ ϭ ϰτγϮϟ ΎϜϳήϣ ΕέΩΎμϟ ΕΩέϮϟ έΪμϤϟ:ϨϣψΔϴϤϟΎόϟ ΓέΎΠΘϟ ΔϤ ΔΒϤϟΎόϟ ΕέΩΎμϟ 4ΕΩέϮϟ ϭ ΕέΩΎμϟ ϝΪόϣ 5ϞΠδϳ ϥ ϊϗϮΘϤϟ Ϧϣ ˬϲϟϭΪϟ ΪϘϨϟ ϕϭΪϨμϟ ΎϘϓϭΣΔϴϤϟΎόϟ ΓέΎΠΘϟ ϢΠϮϤϧΔΒδϨΑ 2,9%ΔϨγ2013ϞΑΎϘϣ2,7%ΔϨγ2012) ϕΎϓΩΎμΘϗϻ ήΑϮΘϛ ˬϲϤϟΎόϟ2013(.
16.
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ:ﻤﺤﻴﻁﻪ ﻓﻲ
ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﻭﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ:ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺹ 7 ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻁﻔﻴﻔﺎ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﺎ ﻤﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺸﻬﺩﺕ ﻜﻤﺎ0,4%ﻟﺘﺼﻝ ﻓﻘﻁﺇﻟﻰ18,4 ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟ ﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺒﺎﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺘﻤﻴﺯﺕ ﺤﻴﺙ ،ﺩﻭﻻﺭﺍﻟ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺔﻁﻔﻴﻑﻟﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ.ﺃﻥ ﻓﺒﻌﺩﻤﻨﺤﺎ ﺴﺠﻠﺕﺒ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺕ ،ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩﻴﺎﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ3%ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﺭﺘ ﺃﻥﻔﺒ ﻌﺕﻨﺤﻭ29%ﻓﻲ2011ﺒ ﻭﻨﺤﻭ26%ﻓﻲ2010. ﻓﻲﺤﻴﻥﺴﺠﻠﺕﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻀﺌﻴﻼ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﺎ2,2%ﻓﻲ ﻟﺘﺴﺘﻘﺭ4,3ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ،ﺩﻭﻻﺭﺒﻌﺩ ﻨﻤﻭﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ11,5%ﺴﻨﺔ20116 .ﻭﻗﺩﻨﻤﻭ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻔﺎﺭ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ)4,1%(ﻤﺘﺒﻭﻋﺔﺒﺎﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ)1,7%(،ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺒﻀﻌﻑ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺕ)4,4-%(ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻝ ﺒﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺜﻡ)1,4%.( ﻭﺴﻴﺴﺠﻝﺤﺠﻡﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔﻨﻤﻭﺍﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﺍﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ2,5%ﺴﻨﺔ ﺨﻼﻝ2013ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ، ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺠﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻝ ﻤﻊ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ،ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ)ﺃﻱ5,4%(،ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﺒﻔﻀﻝﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﻱﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ.ﺤﻴﺙﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕﻭﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺭﺍﺒﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ3,6%ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ1,5%ﺍﻟﺩﻭ ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻝ. ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔﻟﺴﻨﺔ2014،ﺘﺘﻭﻗﻊﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺸﺎﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ4,5%،ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ6,3%ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻝ2,8%ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ.ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻀﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎ،ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﻗﻭﻯ ﻨﻤﻭﺍ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺘﺴﺠﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲﺨﺭﻭﺠﻪ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﻤﻭﺍﺼﻠﺔﻤﻥﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔﺍﻟﺭﻜﻭﺩ. ﻤﺒﻴﺎﻥ4:ﻨﻤﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺤﺠﻡ2000ﺇﻟﻰ2014 11,1% -0,4% 3,1% 5,9% 10,0% 6,6% 8,4% 6,4% 2,3% -12,5% 13,8% 5,4% 2,3%2,5% 4,5% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013)Ε( 2014)Ε( έΪμϤϟ:ϨϣψΔϴϤϟΎόϟ ΓέΎΠΘϟ ΔϤ Ε:ΕήϳΪϘΗ ﻭﻓﻲﻅﻝﻫﺫﻩ،ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊﺃﻥﻴﺴﺠﻝﺤﺠﻡﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻪﻨﺤﻭﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏﻨﻤﻭﺍ ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ0,5%ﺴﻨﺔ2013ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎ ﻋﺭﻑ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ،0,6%ﺴﻨﺔ2012.ﺃﻤﺎﺴﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ2014،ﺃﻥ ﻓﻴﻨﺘﻅﺭ ﻴﺴﺠﻝﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏﻟﻠﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻪﺘﺤﺴﻨﺎﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﺎ3,4%،ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﺎﺒﺎﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊﻓﻲﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ،ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﻭﻻﺴﻴﻤﺎﻓﻲﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ. 2.έϮτΗέΎόγΩϮϤϟϷΔϴϟϭήόγϭϑήμϟϭ΄ΗΛϴήΎϤϫϰϠϋϥΰϴϤϟϱέΎΠΘϟΑήϐϤϟϲ 1.2.ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ ﺤﺩﺓ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺕﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭﺴﻨﺔ2013،ﺒﻌﺩﻤﺎﺴﺠﻠﺕﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺨﻼﻝﺍﻟﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ،ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﻭﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏﻤﺴﺘﻭﺍﻟ ﻴﺎﺕﻌﺭﺽﻤﻥﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ.ﻓﺈﻟﻰﺠﺎﻨﺏﺍﻟﺭﻜﻭﺩﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﻓﻲﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ،ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﻑﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅﺍﻓﻲﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥﻭﻓﻲﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎﻤﻥﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﺕﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ. ﻭﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ،ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺤﺴﺏ،ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ2%ﺍﻟ ﺨﻼﻝﺘﺴﻌﺔﺴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ 2013،ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻨﻔﺱ ﻤﻊ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ،)-3,4.(%ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ7,1%ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ)-14,5(%ﺍﻟﺜﻤﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻥ ، )-13,1(%ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺠﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻥ ،)-4,5(%ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﻭﺠﺎﺕ)-7,1(%ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ،)-20,1(% 6ίϮϴϟϮϳ ˬΔϴϤϟΎόϟ ΓέΎΠΘϟ ΔϤψϨϣ ΕΎϧΎϴΑ ΓΪϋΎϗ ΕΎϴτόϣ ΐδΣ2013.
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