4. Describing the fisheries problem “ The alarming trends in the world’s fisheries demand a fundamental change in management and fishing practices.” “ An integrated solution to the complexity of managing wild resources seems not to have been achieved.”
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6. Describing the fisheries problem “ I believe that rocket scientists have it easy... The USA was able to put a man on the moon within a decade of setting that goal. Achieving biological and economically sustainable fisheries has proven more elusive.”
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9. Visualizing scientific paradigms Not exactly a scientific revolution, but more a response to mgmt questions Normal science Post-normal science Academic Academic & social Mono-disciplinary Trans-disciplinary Technocratic Participative Certain Uncertain Predictive Exploratory
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11. Outline of presentation: Builiding blocks of fisheries sustainability (I) Fisheries management in practice: review of 13 stocks (II) Can we reconcile stakeholder conflicts? (III) Generic properties of harvest rules (IV) Can we increase haddock yield & save the by-catch for later?
25. Quantifying the zone of consensus Area of joint satisfaction Most likely zone of consensus Stakeholder A Stakeholder B
26. Harvest proportion (%) Minimum size (cm) status quo Zone of Consensus Capelin Cod 70%consensus 90%consensus
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29. Generic examples of HCRs Biomass Fishing mortality constant F proportional threshold escapement = parameter
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33. HCR parameter variation Biomass at time, t C 0 1:1 trigger biomass, B trigger constant catch α = 0 constant F α = C 0 /B trig constant escapement α = 1
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35. Evaluating generic HCRs: output according to parameter levels Lowest CV Lowest biol. risk All rules the same Lowest CV Highest catch
39. Fig. 2. Status of 19 groundfish stocks in 2007 with respect to F MSY and B MSY or their proxies based on the GARM III review (NOAA 2008). 2007 Status of Northeast groundfish Georges Bank
48. Stakeholder utility results using 2 regulations Zone of consensus Harvest proportion (%) Minimum sIze (cm) Zone of consensus = minimum stakeholder whinge Use more imaginary example
50. HCR parameter variation Biomass at time, t C 0 1:1 similar constant catch α = 0 constant F α = C 0 /B trig constant escapement α = 1 trigger biomass, B trigger
51. HCR parameter variation Biomass at time, t C 0 1:1 similar similar constant catch α = 0 constant F α = C 0 /B trig constant escapement α = 1 trigger biomass, B trigger
52. Not a simple task to visualize 4 dimensions Over from a scientific to a stakeholder presentation Evaluating generic HCRs: output according to parameter levels Lowest CV Lowest biol. risk compromise btwn building up stock and protecting with thres. B All rules the same Lowest CV Highest catch Too much protection that it is hard for B to > thres. B