Presentations by speakers at the CCAFS' "Planning Climate Adaptation in Agriculture" Side Event during the UNFCCC SB 40 climate negotiations in Bonn. Speakers are: Gabrielle Kissinger, David Kaluba, David Howlett and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya. http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/mainstreaming-agriculture-national-adaptation-plans-0#.U7jmRPldW8w

2. Climate adaptation and
agriculture: Solutions to
successful national
adaptation plans
Gabrielle
Kissinger,
Lexeme
Consulting
Side-event: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture:
Advances in research, policy and finance
SBSTA 40 - Bonn Germany - 7 June 2014

3. Agricultural adaptation: Are countries ready?
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national

4. IPCC: Negative impacts of climate change on crop yields
are more common than positive ones
Source: IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, 31 March 2014

5. IPCC: Summary of projected
changes in crop yields due to
climate change
Note: Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels
Source: IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, 31 March 2014 Climate adaptation and agriculture:

6. Growing demand and pressure on
agriculture
•
US $70 billion to $100 billion a year is needed between 2010
and 2050 to adapt to a 2oC warmer world (World Bank, 2011)
•
US$83 - $90 billion annual agricultural investment gap in the
agricultural sector of developing countries, to meet food
security needs up to 2050 (FAO 2011, Global Harvest Initiative
2011)

7. How NAPs evolved
•
Established in 2010 (Cancún) by the UNFCCC. Purpose:
Ø
Facilitate effective medium- and long-term adaptation planning
and implementation in developing countries, in particular LDCs
(FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1)
•
Adaptation Committee est. under Cancun Adaptation Framework.
Purpose:
Ø
Implement enhanced action on adaptation and facilitation of
NAPs by non-LDC developing country Parties. Contributes to (not
duplicate work of) the Least Developed Countries Expert Group
(LEG) to support LDC national adaptation plan processes and the
SBI on the work programme on loss and damage.
•
LEG Technical Guidelines for NAPs: released 2012.

8. NAPAs and NAPs
COP 17 in Durban defined NAP process objectives
(FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1):
(a) “reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by
building adaptive capacity and resilience,” and
(b) ” facilitate integration of climate change adaptation, in a
coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies,
programmes and activities, in particular development planning
processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different
levels, as appropriate”.
…And recognised that adaptation planning will be “continuous,
progressive and iterative.”

9. NAPAs and NAPs
2013. NAPAs and NAPS in Least Developed Countries. IIED LDC Paper Series.
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

10. Countries
reviewed

11. 10 country workshop
•
37 policy makers, 10 different countries
•
two-day workshop on November 13-14, 2013 at COP in Warsaw,
Poland

12. NAP Dashboard
Source: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture. CCAFS Report No. 10

13. Areas of concern:
•
Many countries lack consistent, comprehensive and coordinated approaches in
their vulnerability and risk assessments (affects ranking)
•
Most of the countries conducted impact assessments—the foundation of the
planning process—on a purely sectoral basis
•
Cross- or multisectoral analyses to prioritize adaptation actions can be useful,
many countries have difficulties performing such strategic studies
•
Most did not assess the economic implications of climate risks, which
compromises the design of adaptation strategies and measures:
Ø
Kenya: Annual cost of climate change impacts USD $1 to 3 billion/yr. by 2030.
•
Institutional frameworks and governance structures are lacking to effectively
coordinate and implement adaptation activities, particularly cross-sectoral ones
•
Many adaptation and food security programs currently being implemented are
not well integrated into a broader national strategy, and are often driven by
bilateral and/or multilateral funding sources.

14. The adaptation finance gap

15. Identification of barriers and conflicts  basis for assessing future research and
capacity needs:
Workshop results:
Barrier Frequency
Lack of organization in access to finance 5
Lack of dedicated finance instruments for CC at national level 5
Insufficient consideration of climate issues in national policies and
programmes
4
Unclear funding for implementation 3
Inadequate appreciation of investments in adaptation 3
Lack of long-series climate data 2
Lack of baseline data/information 2
High cost of international expertise, infrastructure and tools for
climate research
2
Need for financial planning 2

16. Success in cross- or multisectoral
planning:
•
Nepal (NAPA): “Thematic working groups” – Agriculture and Food
Security, Forest and Biodiversity, Water Resources and Energy,
Climate Induced Disasters, Public Health, Urban Settlements and
Infrastructure. Stakeholder comprised, identified priority activities +
combined project profiles.
•
Ghana: “Akropong Approach” – results in cross-sectoral project
plan. Logical framework analysis + multi-criteria analysis to rank
importance of activities.
•
Tanzania’s 2012 “Guidelines for Integrating Climate Change
Adaptation into National Sectoral Policies, Plans and Programmes of
Tanzania,” issued by the Vice President’s Office.

17. Design of institutional structures should consider who can have
greatest influence in adaptation and NAP policy environment:
•
OECD experience: Success of adaptation plans and measures may
be attributed more to their prominence in national-level priorities
and commitment than where such plans sit in the organizational
structure of government (Mullan et al. 2013)
•
Ethiopia: coordination of climate change activities was moved
from the National Meteorological Agency to the Office of the
Prime Minister
•
Kenya: the National Climate Change Framework Policy and a draft
Bill being deliberated in Parliament envisions the National Climate
Change Council (NCCC) being anchored in the Presidency, with the
NCCC being chaired by the Deputy President.
Necessary influence and leverage
for NAPs:

18. Workshop: Most relevant actors
and institutions to influence NAP
policy environment

19. Recommendations
•
Bring local levels into planning and prioritization, where much climate adaptation
implementation occurs.
•
Governance institutions need to be adaptive, in order to adjust response
measures as new information on climate impacts develops over time.
•
Developing countries and LDCs need to strengthen capacity to identify and rank
climate risks and prioritize response activities.
•
Identify sources of NAP implementation finance during the planning phase.
– Implementation funding should be separate from NAP planning.
– Devote some national budgetary allocations towards implementation (stronger commitment to
outcomes and more effective for mainstreaming)
•
Increased capacity for integrated approaches to adaptation planning
– Key for relationships and trade-offs between sectors + climate adaptation and mitigation synergies
•
Countries should widen stakeholder engagement in assessment, design,
implementation and monitoring of adaptation plans, particularly the private

20. Thank you!
Gabrielle Kissinger
Principal, Lexeme Consulting
gabrielle@lexemeconsulting.com

21. Planning Climate Adaptation in Agriculture
UNFCCC SB 40 in Bonn, Germany
By David C. Kaluba
National Coordinator-Interim Secretariat
Ministry of Finance –Zambia
2014
REPUBLICREPUBLIC OF ZAMBIAOF ZAMBIA

22. What are Development Priorities
Strong Economic Growth…
GNI per capita: US$1,280/year
GDP Growth: 6.4%
Population 13 million
61% rural
Land: 750,000 km2
Two large river basins: Zambezi and Congo
The name is derived from river Zambezi
But Growth is Uneven…
Poverty level in rural areas: 77%
(59% at national level)
UN HDI: 150 out of 169

23. Example 2. Identify Climate Change Risks on Development
 Over past 30 years, floods and droughts
have cost Zambia US$13.8 billion –
equivalent to 0.4 % of annual GDP growth
 In the absence of adaptation, rainfall
variability could keep an additional 300,000
more Zambians below the poverty line
 Climate variability could cost Zambia
US$4.3 billion in lost GDP over the next
decade, reducing annual growth by 0.9%

24. Impact on the Most Vulnerable
Women-headed Households, the Elderly,
Incapacitated, and those taking care of AIDS-
orphans are most vulnerable. Single or divorced
male-headed HHs are also highly vulnerable (due
to malnutrition)
When hit with floods or droughts,
vulnerable HHs cope by reducing
food or essential expenditures
(health, education). They also
increase their level of indebtness
and rely further on casual labor –
however, this is mostly food-for-
works which is similarly impacted
by the weather.
Many traditional coping mechanisms (e.g. indigenous early warning, two house system)
are no longer working due to weather unpredictability and changing economic conditions

25. Zambia: Major Exposure to Climate
Droughts FloodsFood Needs Areas – 2005/06 Drought
The Southern part of Zambia is generally considered to be the most vulnerable

26. Green Climate Fund-
Readiness
Project-based and
programmatic approaches in
accordance with climate
change strategies and plans,
such as low-emission
development strategies or
plans, nationally appropriate
mitigation actions (NAMAs),
national adaptation plans of
action (NAPAs), national
adaptation plans (NAPs) and
other related activities
NAPs as Readiness
tool
To reduce vulnerability to the impacts
of climate change, by building adaptive
capacity and resilience;
To facilitate the integration of climate
change adaptation, in a coherent
manner, into relevant new and existing
policies, programmes and activities, in
particular development planning
processes and strategies, within all
relevant sectors and at different levels,
as appropriate

27. LINKAGES ARE IMPORTANT
mainstream ed climate change
into the most economically and
vulnerable sectors of the
economy in order to ensure
sustainable economic
development towards the
attainment of Zambia’s Vision
2030
Mainstreaming strengthened
country ownership and
driveness
Local level Integrated
Development Plans crucial to
adaptation among the most
vulnerable – processes
commenced

28. Zambia’s Climate Change Programme Institutional Arrangements
Board(Ministries,House of Chiefs,CivilSociety,Private Sector, Academia)
TechnicalCommittee
Secretariat-CCFU
Theme 2:
Mitigation/Low
Carbon Development
e.g. CDM, UN-
REDD
Theme 1:
Adaptation & Disaster
Risk Reduction
e.g. PPCR, NAPA
Theme 3:
Research &
Development,
Capacity Building
e.g. ILUA,
Technology
Development
Theme 4:
Policy Development,
Mainstreaming &
Negotiations
e.g. UNFCCC, CIFs
Theme 5
Finance:
Identification & Resource
Mobilization
e.g. Adaptation Fund,
Carbon Tax & others
Technical Committee Platforms:
1) ResilientAgriculture
2) ResilientInfrastructure
Constituency: Implementing Ministries, Local Government, CommunityGroups,
NGOs, Private Sector
Community groups, NGOs
Committee of Ministers
FutureClimate
ChangeCouncil
TCPlatforms:
3) REDD
TCPlatforms:
4) Climate
Information
TCPlatforms:
6) Managementand
Finance
TCPlatforms:
5) Others
The main
themes of the
programme
are
supported by
stakeholder
platforms

29. 1. PARTICIPATORY ADAPTATION (Examples)
Current Plans now include:
100% Government baseline
Climate Resilient Plans would also include:
+ 30% increment
Livestock and poultry rearing Climate resilient agriculture, livestock and fisheries
Agriculture inputs Natural resources management
Wells, water supply systems Water harvesting, flood control
Education and health facilities Retrofitting/construction to climate resilient standards
Feeder community roads Upgrading or retrofitting to climate resilient standards
Community facilities Community preparedness
This would promote community-driven, climate resilient development
based on decentralized budget processes

30. Targeting Gender and Vulnerable Groups
• As a condition for eligibility, at least 50% of the activities
funded under climate resilient plans will be targeted to socially
vulnerable groups – women-headed households, elderly, and
the incapacitated.
• This pre-targeting would be mapped through a Comprehensive
Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis, as per standard
guidelines of the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit
• Youth groups would also be targeted due to their access to
sub-standard land (typically away from irrigated areas)
• In districts with active cash (child) transfers, the SPCR would
link with the social protection program for complementary
support (through social infrastructure, micro-credit, and
assistance to producer groups)

31. For More Information, please contact
dckaluba@juno.com or dckaluba05@gmail.com

32. Slide 1
Development partner
perspective on agriculture
and adaptation
David Howlett
UK Department for International
Development (DFID)
7th June 2014, Bonn
Women and children are
often affected the most by
climate

33. Slide 2
•
Recognise the problem and
challenges
•
Need to have evidence on
what to invest in and policies
to improve
•
Want to know if these are
successful
What is needed to adapt
to a changing climate
Three points

34. •
Set up the International
Climate Fund in 2011
•
£3.83 bn over four years:
– 50% on adaptation
– 30% on low carbon
development
– 20% on forestry
•
Agriculture a priority
Slide 3
What is UK doing?
A changing climate will affect
the poor the most

35. Slide 4
•
Enhance farmers livelihoods
•
Produce the food farmers &
consumers need
•
Improve people’s nutrition –
especially that of women and
children
•
Help farmers adapt and build
resilience to current & future climate
risks
•
Sustain the health of the land and
increases its productivity
•
Avoid loss of forests & biodiversity
•
Sequester carbon in soil and
reduce emissions of GHGs from
agric.
We want to:
Irrigation helping Kenyan
farmer increase her income

36. Slide 5
•
£150m to IFAD’s Adaptation for
Smallholder Agriculture
Programme (ASAP) to benefit six
million farmers, men and women and
help build their resilience to climate
change, and help improve their
incomes.
•
£140m Building Resilience and
Adapting to Climate Extremes and
Disasters Programme (BRACED) to
increase the resilience of over 5m
people in the Sahel, other African
countries and South Asia A Father and son escaping floods in
Pakistan
Two examples

37. Supporting
Climate
Change
Adaptation
Pradeep
Kurukulasuriya
Head,
Climate
Change
Adaptation
UNDP-­‐GEF
Laos/LDCF

38. Vanuatu/SCCF Niger/LDCF

39. Cambodia/LDCF Guatemala/SPA
Vanuatu/SCCF Laos/SCCF

41. Our
Journey
Adaptation
in
Practice
Lessons
Learned
The
Way
Forward

42. Empowering
Communities
De-­‐risking
through
Public
Policy
Nurturing
and
Promoting
Enterprise
Empowering
Communities
Lessons
Learned

43. Cambodia/LDCF
Bhutan/LDCF
Zimbabwe/SCCF
Niger/LDCF
Samoa/SCCF
Rwanda/LDCF
Bangladesh/LDCF
Empowering
Communities

44. De-­‐risking
barriers
Lessons
Learned

45. FS
Micronesia/SCCF
Lesotho/NAP-­‐GSP
Afghanistan/NAP-­‐GSPLesotho/NAP-­‐GSP
De-­‐risking
through
Public
Policy

46. Bhutan/NAP-­‐GSP
Zimbabwe/SCCF De-­‐risking
through
Public
Policy

47. Nurturing
and
Promoting
Enterprise
Lessons
Learned

48. Namibia/SPA
Nurturing
and
Promoting
Enterprise

49. Cambodia/LDCF
Nurturing
and
Promoting
Enterprise

50. Our
Journey
Adaptation
in
Practice
Lessons
Learned
The
Way
Forward

51. Integrated
Approaches
Cambodia/LDCF
Ethiopia/LDCF
Samoa/LDCF
Vietnam/LDCF
The
Way
Forward

52. Evidence-­‐Based
Learning
Samoa/SPA
Namibia/SPA
Bolivia/SPA
The
Way
Forward

53. (a) Enhance
the
capacity
of
policy
makers
to
identify
appropriate
mix
of
public
instruments
including
public
finance
to
catalyze
larger
private
investments
!
(b) Create
an
enabling
environment
including
national/sub-­‐national/
sectoral
policy
frameworks,
domestic
technical
expertise,
financing
channels,
and
administrative
procedures
!
(c) Attract
innovative
finance
to
provide
additional
financial
incentives
(II)
to
identify
barriers
to
priority
investments
(III)
identify
risks
generated
by
these
barriers
that
prevent
the
requisite
investment
(IV)
what
are
the
de-­‐risking
instruments
(V)
What
are
source
of
finance
to
support
de-­‐risking
strategy
(I)
Assist
Governments
(e.g.
through
national
adaptation
plans)
to
identify
priorities
from
perspective
of:
(a)preserving
existing
infrastructure,
businesses
and
livelihoods;
(b)new
business
opportunities
(c)no
regret
options
Theory
of
Change The
Way
Forward

54. Scaling
Up
Morocco/SPA
Niger/LDCF
The
Way
Forward

56. !
Transforming
1,800,000
million
lives
directly
!