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The added value of predictions
for transport delivery
A step towards continuous transport planning and 5-star delivery experience.
Silvie Spreeuwenberg
■ challenges in transport logistics
■ introduction to the Simacan platform
■ benefits - related to role of predictions
■ future of transport logistics
● autonomous shipments
● continuous planning
Agenda
People on this session
Business Controlling & Strategy
Business controller and program
manager for the scale-up
program of Simacan. Passionate
about using AI to improve and
optimize human decision making.
Silvie
Spreeuwenberg
Legenda
Supplier
Inbound function depot
Outbound function depot
Receiver
Journey Supplier Inbound depot
Journey Inbound Outbound depot
Journey Outbound Receiver
strictly confidential - sharing this without Simacan consent is prohibited
CONNECTING THE DOTS IN SUPPLY CHAIN
Road transport by commercial (electric) vehicles
MANAGE THE PARADOX IN SUPPLY CHAIN!
CUSTOMER INTIMACY
OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE
BUSINESS
NATURE
CUSTOMER
EXPECTATION
YOUR PLAN
REALITY
The Simacan smart collaboration platform
allows stakeholders in time critical delivery networks
to provide customers with a 5-star delivery experience
against minimal waste
Working as one!
Some examples to start with
Working as one!
DC - shop - driver - planner alignment
Working as one!
Customer notification and proof of delivery
Working as one!
eCMR paperless process, monitoring and alerting seamlessly integrated
Working as one!
Departure and arrival specific routing instructions brought to existing onboard computers
Working as one!
Business analist Order & Transport
admin
All data available for analytics & reporting
Working as one!
Automated
exception
alerts and
management
Shop manager
Consumer
Hub manager
9,9
5-STAR DELIVERY EXPERIENCE
Personal devices
Personal devices Planning screen In & outbound monitor Onboard devices
Platform intelligence enriches data for smarter exchange
Intelligent algorithms Up-to-date maps Planning & routing
Traffic information Intelligent traffic systems Master data
Two-way communication Real-time insights Last-mile assistance Spot-on notification
Home delivery supply chain
Benefits our clients report
Role of predictions in
managing the delivery
experience
“Brilliant in its simplicity and reducing turnaround
times with 15% on one hand and reducing the
drivers time spent in traffic jams with 7%”
Current time & state ETA next stops Exception
11:00 Departing 12:00 - 13:30 none
Current time & state ETA next stops Exception
11:00 Departing 12:00 - 13:30 none
11:05 Driving 12:01 - 13:30 none
Current time & state ETA next stops Exception
11:00 Departing 12:00 - 13:30 none
11:05 Driving 12:01 - 13:30 none
11: 20 Driving slow traffic 12:05 - 13:35 minor delay
Current time & state ETA next stops Exception
11:00 Departing 12:00 - 13:30 none
11:05 Driving 12:01 - 13:30 none
11: 20 Driving slow traffic 12:05 - 13:35 minor delay
11:30 Not driving 13:30 - 15:30 major delays with
consequences for
subsequent deliveries
Current time & state ETA Exception
13:30 Onloading 15:30 none
13:40 Departing 15:30 none
13:50 Driving slow traffic 15:30 none predicted
15:30 Arriving 15:30 none predicted
Trajectory method
We calculate the travel time from a starting
date/time for one link in the route and use the
resulting end time as the input for the next link.
The travel time is based on speed profiles,
actual free-flow speed, truck factors, region and
date factors.
Instantaneous method
For each link in the route, we calculate the travel
time using speed profiles, actual free-flow
speed, truck factors and date factors. The travel
times of each link are combined into one travel
time.
Truck factors
The vehicle type influences the actual travel
time in the case of certain roads or certain road
elements such as roundabouts.
Regional factors
There may be regional differences between
actual speeds per road type.
Date factors
The time of day, day of the week, season and
holidays all influence actual travel speeds.
Why are our ETAs better?
Tapering method
ETAs are often unreliable because by the time
the vehicle arrives at the spot of an identified
traffic jam or incident, the traffic is often flowing
again. Our tapering method combines the
instantaneous method for ETAs close by with the
trajectory method for ETAs further ahead.
All scheduled
deliveries,
including
expected delay in
planned arrival.
Store display
Next delivery
based on latest
ETA calculation
Store location
Planned route
and actual
position transport
Remember two things:
1. Less turnaround time because the unloading
team knows when the truck arrives.
2. Less time in traffic jams because the routing
and planning system understands daily traffic
routines.
Half of our late deliveries have been resolved. This
creates savings, but more importantly happy
customers
own fleet
carriers
Remember one thing:
1. A branded track and trace portal increases the
customer experience and allows you to choose
the best carrier for the occasion.
Step by step improving our supply chain to
improve the information to the store managers
having greater insight into the delivery and
having increased the delivery performance by
50%
1. Inform about subsequent
delays
2. Change order sequence
3. Swap orders between assets
Planning the home delivery
Remember two things:
1. Groceries delivery may start from a shop
location or a hub location.
2. When multiple vehicles operate in a small area
the planning may be easily adjusted to
accommodate for exceptions.
PRE-TRIP
ON-TRIP
POST-TRIP
Impact
Continuous
learning
planning
algorithms
Continuous
optimisation
of order
sequence
within a trip
Reallocation
of orders
between
trips
Continuous
reallocation
of assets
Continuous
planning:
No more
cut-off
moment
Complexity
Steps to full continuous planning
PRE-TRIP
ON-TRIP
POST-TRIP
Impact
Continuous
learning
planning
algorithms
Continuous
optimisation
of order
sequence
within a trip
Reallocation
of orders
between
trips
Continuous
reallocation
of assets
Continuous
planning:
No more
cut-off
moment
Complexity
Steps to full continuous planning
Reinforcement learning
We are using reinforcement learning to
create a model that suggests intertrip
mutations based on vehicle locations, trip
information and ETA updates.
Our vision and trajectory
Thank you

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Intelligent Mobility: The Added Value of Predictions for Transport Delivery

  • 1. The added value of predictions for transport delivery A step towards continuous transport planning and 5-star delivery experience. Silvie Spreeuwenberg
  • 2. ■ challenges in transport logistics ■ introduction to the Simacan platform ■ benefits - related to role of predictions ■ future of transport logistics ● autonomous shipments ● continuous planning Agenda
  • 3. People on this session Business Controlling & Strategy Business controller and program manager for the scale-up program of Simacan. Passionate about using AI to improve and optimize human decision making. Silvie Spreeuwenberg
  • 4. Legenda Supplier Inbound function depot Outbound function depot Receiver Journey Supplier Inbound depot Journey Inbound Outbound depot Journey Outbound Receiver strictly confidential - sharing this without Simacan consent is prohibited CONNECTING THE DOTS IN SUPPLY CHAIN Road transport by commercial (electric) vehicles
  • 5. MANAGE THE PARADOX IN SUPPLY CHAIN! CUSTOMER INTIMACY OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE BUSINESS NATURE CUSTOMER EXPECTATION
  • 7. The Simacan smart collaboration platform allows stakeholders in time critical delivery networks to provide customers with a 5-star delivery experience against minimal waste
  • 8. Working as one! Some examples to start with
  • 9. Working as one! DC - shop - driver - planner alignment
  • 10. Working as one! Customer notification and proof of delivery
  • 11. Working as one! eCMR paperless process, monitoring and alerting seamlessly integrated
  • 12. Working as one! Departure and arrival specific routing instructions brought to existing onboard computers
  • 13. Working as one! Business analist Order & Transport admin All data available for analytics & reporting
  • 16. Personal devices Personal devices Planning screen In & outbound monitor Onboard devices Platform intelligence enriches data for smarter exchange Intelligent algorithms Up-to-date maps Planning & routing Traffic information Intelligent traffic systems Master data Two-way communication Real-time insights Last-mile assistance Spot-on notification Home delivery supply chain
  • 17. Benefits our clients report Role of predictions in managing the delivery experience
  • 18. “Brilliant in its simplicity and reducing turnaround times with 15% on one hand and reducing the drivers time spent in traffic jams with 7%”
  • 19. Current time & state ETA next stops Exception 11:00 Departing 12:00 - 13:30 none
  • 20. Current time & state ETA next stops Exception 11:00 Departing 12:00 - 13:30 none 11:05 Driving 12:01 - 13:30 none
  • 21. Current time & state ETA next stops Exception 11:00 Departing 12:00 - 13:30 none 11:05 Driving 12:01 - 13:30 none 11: 20 Driving slow traffic 12:05 - 13:35 minor delay
  • 22. Current time & state ETA next stops Exception 11:00 Departing 12:00 - 13:30 none 11:05 Driving 12:01 - 13:30 none 11: 20 Driving slow traffic 12:05 - 13:35 minor delay 11:30 Not driving 13:30 - 15:30 major delays with consequences for subsequent deliveries
  • 23. Current time & state ETA Exception 13:30 Onloading 15:30 none 13:40 Departing 15:30 none 13:50 Driving slow traffic 15:30 none predicted 15:30 Arriving 15:30 none predicted
  • 24. Trajectory method We calculate the travel time from a starting date/time for one link in the route and use the resulting end time as the input for the next link. The travel time is based on speed profiles, actual free-flow speed, truck factors, region and date factors. Instantaneous method For each link in the route, we calculate the travel time using speed profiles, actual free-flow speed, truck factors and date factors. The travel times of each link are combined into one travel time. Truck factors The vehicle type influences the actual travel time in the case of certain roads or certain road elements such as roundabouts. Regional factors There may be regional differences between actual speeds per road type. Date factors The time of day, day of the week, season and holidays all influence actual travel speeds. Why are our ETAs better? Tapering method ETAs are often unreliable because by the time the vehicle arrives at the spot of an identified traffic jam or incident, the traffic is often flowing again. Our tapering method combines the instantaneous method for ETAs close by with the trajectory method for ETAs further ahead.
  • 25. All scheduled deliveries, including expected delay in planned arrival. Store display Next delivery based on latest ETA calculation Store location Planned route and actual position transport
  • 26. Remember two things: 1. Less turnaround time because the unloading team knows when the truck arrives. 2. Less time in traffic jams because the routing and planning system understands daily traffic routines.
  • 27. Half of our late deliveries have been resolved. This creates savings, but more importantly happy customers
  • 29. Remember one thing: 1. A branded track and trace portal increases the customer experience and allows you to choose the best carrier for the occasion.
  • 30. Step by step improving our supply chain to improve the information to the store managers having greater insight into the delivery and having increased the delivery performance by 50%
  • 31. 1. Inform about subsequent delays 2. Change order sequence 3. Swap orders between assets Planning the home delivery
  • 32. Remember two things: 1. Groceries delivery may start from a shop location or a hub location. 2. When multiple vehicles operate in a small area the planning may be easily adjusted to accommodate for exceptions.
  • 33. PRE-TRIP ON-TRIP POST-TRIP Impact Continuous learning planning algorithms Continuous optimisation of order sequence within a trip Reallocation of orders between trips Continuous reallocation of assets Continuous planning: No more cut-off moment Complexity Steps to full continuous planning
  • 34. PRE-TRIP ON-TRIP POST-TRIP Impact Continuous learning planning algorithms Continuous optimisation of order sequence within a trip Reallocation of orders between trips Continuous reallocation of assets Continuous planning: No more cut-off moment Complexity Steps to full continuous planning Reinforcement learning We are using reinforcement learning to create a model that suggests intertrip mutations based on vehicle locations, trip information and ETA updates.
  • 35. Our vision and trajectory