Module 2 Causal loop modelling

CAUSAL LOOP MODELLING
Professor Ockie Bosch
Dr Nam Nguyen

Systems Thinking Tools
 Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)
 Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)
 Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab)
 Behavior Over Time (BOT)
 Systems Archetypes (SA)
 Sensitivity Model (Basis of Ecopolicy)
 Viable System Model
 Stock and Flow Diagrams
 Systems Dynamic Models and more…
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen

Current Issues in the Media
 Climate Change
 Carbon Emission
 Water Shortage
 Land Use
 Environment
 Biodiversity
 Energy Crisis
 Food Crisis
 Economic Growth
 Globalisation
 Sustainability
 Social Dislocation
 Poverty
 Human Health
 Animal Health
 Food Safety

 These different issues can not be regarded as single
entities that can be dealt with in isolation from each
other
 What are the relationships/interactions between
these issues/variables?
Interconnected?

The Environment Loop

Population Loop Added

Agriculture Loop Added

Biofuel Loop Added

AN INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODEL
Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)

Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) provide:
‘… a framework for seeing interrelationships rather
than things, for seeing patterns of change rather
than static snapshots’.
Peter Senge (2006)
Definition

Basic Elements of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) -
Variable (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
 Variable is a condition, state, action, or decision which can
influence, and can be influenced by, other conditions,
states, actions, etc.
 A variable can be quantitative (e.g., number of employees,
kilograms of production, business profit, etc.) or it can be
qualitative (e.g., values, motivation, reputation, feelings,
respect, etc. ).

Basic Elements of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) -
Arrow (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
• An arrow indicates a causal relationship or change in the
state of two variables.
Bank balance
Interest
• S (or +) indicates change in the Same direction.
• O (or -) indicates change in the Opposite direction.

Interest
S (+)
Bank balance
Expenditure
O (-)

How to decide on the sign?
Higher Interest
Lower Interest
Higher Bank balance
Higher Expenditure
}
Lower Savings
Higher Savings
Lower Expenditure
Lower Bank balance
}
S (or +)
O (or -)

Feedback (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
 Feedback is a process in which outputs from a
system affect the inputs
 Feedback loops arise when a sequence of
interactions form a closed loop:
 A-B-C-A:
C
B
A

Loop Types (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
 Reinforcing Loop (R)
 Positive feedback
The R-loop represents growing or
declining actions
 Balancing Loop (B)
 Negative feedback (counteracting)
The B-loop seeks stability or return to control, or
aims for a specific target
+
-

Example of a Reinforcing Loop
(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
Interest
S
Savings
Balance
S
R
Virtuous Cycle
Time
Savings
Balance

“Quality Problem” - A Vicious Cycle
Hiding Errors /
Mistakes
Incidence of Poor
Quality
Management
Punitive Action
R
Fear of Blame /
Punishment
S
S
S
S
Quality
Time
Vicious Cycle

Example of Balancing Loops
Nguyen & Bosch (2013). Using Systems Thinking to Identify Leverage Points for Sustainability. Systems
Research & Behavioral Sciences, Vol.30, No.2, pp 104-115.

Differentiating between a ‘R’ and B’
1. Using logic or intuition to identify the nature of the
loop: growing or declining action (R), counteracting
process (B).
2. Tracing the loop variable by variable: start and end
with the same verb (R), with the opposite verb (B).
3. Counting the number of ‘O’ (or ‘-’ sign) in the loop:
zero or even number (R), odd number (B).

Rules for drawing CLDs
(adapted from Sherwood, 2002)
 Rule 1: Know your boundaries
 Rule 2: Start somewhere interesting
 Rule 3: Ask ‘What does this drive?’ & ‘What is this
driven by?’
 Rule 4: Use nouns, not verbs
 Rule 5: Don’t use terms such as ‘increase in’ or
‘decrease in’
 Rule 6: Don’t be afraid of unusual items
 Rule 7: Do the ‘s’ and ‘o’ as you go along
 Rule 8: A good diagram must be recognised as real
 Rule 9: Don’t ‘fall in love’ with your diagram
 Rule 10: No diagram ever ‘finished’

But, this might be too much!
A dynamic systems model of the Afghanistan conflict
(The New York Times, April 26, 2010, retrieved from http://
www.nytimes.com/2010/04/27/world/27powerpoint.html?_r=1) © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen

o Services
o Infrastructure
o Waste*******
o Hotels , Restaurants*****
o Attraction of CB Island
o Access to markets
o Investment in agriculture
o Information and communication
o Misuse of NR******
o Health
o New construction
o Tourism pollution*******
o Agricultural pollution
o Available underground water******
o Number of tourists
o Other pollution sources
o Use of underground water
o Tourism revenue*******
o NR conservation*******
o Livelihood of Commoner
o Life expectancy
o Governance structures***
o Policies
o Poverty*******
o Educated population
o Lack of Integrated Planning******
o NGOs
o People's awareness
o Social evils/crime
o Cultural values
o Population*******
o Immigration
o GDP per capita
o Tourism Development******
Waste
Water
Poverty
Tourism
Causal Loop Modeling
Step1. Gathering mental models to identify variables for the sustainable
development of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam

Step 2: Move variables around until clear themes are appearing
Services
New construction
Infrastructure
Hotels , Restaurants
Tourism Development
Number of tourists
Access to market
Investment in agriculture
Information and communication
Tourism revenue
Tourism pollution
Waste
Attraction of CB Island
Available underground water
Use of underground water
NR conservation
Biodiversity
Livelihood of Commoner
Misuse of NR
GDP per capita
Agriculture revenue
Poverty
Food safety
Health
Life expectancy
Educated population
Population
Governance structure
Other income Sources
Lack of Integrated Planning
Immigration
NGOs Social evils/crime
Policies
Student population
Cultural values
Agricultural pollution
People's awareness
Other pollution sources

Step 3: Systemic Structure (of CAT BA Biosphere) after variables have
been linked with arrows
Attraction of
CB island
Service quality
Number of
tourists
Biodiversity
Tourism
pollution
Available
underground
water
Use of
underground
water
Waste
Tourism
revenue
Hotels and
Restaurants
Agriculture
pollution
Infrastructure
Other pollution
sources
New construction
Agriculture
revenue
Investment in
agriculture
Access to
market
Information and
communication
GDP per
capita
Livelihood of
Commoner
Misuse of
NR
NR
conservation
Food
safety
Health
Life expectancy
Immigration
Population
Student
population
Educated
population
Poverty
Cultural
values
Social
issues
People’s
awareness
Tourism
development
Lack of Integrated planning
NGOs Governanc
e structure
Policies

PRACTICAL EXERCISE to draw CLDs
Develop a CLD around an area of your own interest:
1. For Educational Purposes: You can use Vensim software
(Download from: http://vensim.com/download/ (Click on
Free Download)
2. In the Think2Impact Package: You can draw links between
variables directly on the “Whiteboard” in the section on
Developing a Systems Model (Vensim not required)

Module 2 Causal loop modelling

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