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THE VIEW
FROM BELOW
CASUAL CONNECT USA 2015
MOBILE GAMES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION
STEPHANIE LLAMAS, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH
@STEPHINANERS @_SUPERDATA #CASUALCONNECTUSA
2THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
| Playable media & games market research
Stephanie Llamas
Director,
Research & Consumer Insights
SuperData Research
Relevant market data and insight
on digital games and playable media
| Playable media & games market research
3THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Relevant market data and insight
on digital games and playable media
Monthly analyses and industry reports
using digital point-of-sale data
| Playable media & games market research
4THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Relevant market data and insight
on digital games and playable media
Monthly analyses and industry reports
using digital point-of-sale data
Understand what people play,
connect to and spend on
| Playable media & games market research
5THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Relevant market data and insight
on digital games and playable media
Monthly analyses and industry reports
using digital point-of-sale data
Understand what people play,
connect to and spend on
A next gen approach
for next gen entertainment
| Playable media & games market research
6THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
| Playable media & games market research
7THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
8
| Playable media & games market research
LANDSCAPE
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Worldwide mobile games revenue, 2015E
$24.1B
Total worldwide market for
mobile games, 2015E
North America shows
signs of stagnation but
the U.S. still goes strong
with almost a fifth of the
global games market and
$4.7B in revenue.
9
| Playable media & games market research
North America
$4.7billion
Latin
America
$1.8
billion
Asia
$13.2billion
Europe
$3.7billion
Rest of
world
$0.7
billion
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
10
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Kids mobile game market share of
WW mobile game market, 2015E
7.8%
2015E
$1.9BWW kids mobile
game revenue
11
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
7.8% 9.3%
Kids mobile game market share of
WW mobile game market, 2015E
Kids mobile game market share of
US mobile game market, 2015E
2015E
$417MUS kids mobile
game revenue
2015E
$1.9BWW kids mobile
game revenue
12
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
75
100
125
150
175
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
Mobile cost per install and average revenue per user, indexed
*Index compares a metric to a particular base month, specifically January 2013, represented by the value 100.
2014 2015
13
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
0-5
6-9
10-13
PARENTS’ CHOICE
PARENT/CHILD CONSENSUS
WHATEVER IS COOL
14
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Outlets for
creativity
Simple gameplay
Complex
gameplay
Social aspects
Appealing
graphics
Iconic characters/
mascots
Cartoonish
features
Branding
Educational
gameplay
Game quality
preference
Simulation
Action
Arcade
Strategy
Puzzle
Sports
Racing
Other
Word
Adventure
Board
Mobile gaming preferences of US kids 8-11 years old
15
| Playable media & games market research
US TRENDS
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
16
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
PREMIUM
Monetization types for mobile games
• Upfront game purchase
• Premium+IAP
17
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
PREMIUM FREE-TO-PLAY
Monetization types for mobile games
• In-app purchases
• Subscriptions
• Advertising
• Upfront game purchase
• Premium+IAP
18
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
0
40
80
120
160
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
$46M$49M
$44M
$42M
$107M$104M$100M$96M 42%
27%
31%
55%
30%
14%
US premium
upfront and IAP
revenue share
by age, 2015E
US premium mobile games revenue from kids
0-5
6-9
10-13
Upfront vs In-app purchases
19
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
CONS
• Limited revenue stream
• Short lifespan (unless you’re
Minecraft)
• Doesn’t fun ongoing
development and support
PROS
• Largely COPPA-friendly
• Transparent
• Popular with parents
Premium kids mobile games
20
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
$344M
$317M
$273M
$245M
75%
19%
6%
US free-to-play
revenue share
by age, 2015E
US free-to-play mobile games revenue from kids
0-5
6-910-13
21
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
CONTENT
• Easier to follow regulations
• Transparent
• Hard to make money
• Needs constant content
updates
CONSUMABLE
• Highest potential for spending
• Ethical gray area
• Highly regulated
• Competing with big studio
games
Free-to-play kids mobile games
CONSUMABLE vs. CONTENT IAP
75%
19%
6%
22
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
22%
39%
39%US free-to-play
IAP and subscription
revenue share
by age, 2015E
US free-to-play mobile games revenue from kids
0-5
6-910-13
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
$44M
$37M
$31M
$22M
$300M
$280M
$242M
$223M
free-to-play vs subscription purchases
0-5
6-9
10-13
23
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store*
*Retrieved 9/11/2015
24
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store*
*Retrieved 9/11/2015
free-to-play IAP
25
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store*
*Retrieved 9/11/2015
free-to-play IAP vs premium (no IAP)
26
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store*
*Retrieved 9/11/2015
free-to-play IAP vs premium (no IAP) vs subscription
27
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Free-to-play kids mobile games
SUBSCRIPTIONS
CONS
• Hard to find on Google Play
• Less pricing flexibility
• Technical limitations
PROS
• Growing in popularity
• Transparent
• Predictable and recurring
revenue
Confirm Your In-App Purchase
Do you want to subscribe to
this super awesome kids
game for $2.99 a month?
Cancel Buy
| Playable media & games market research
28
OUTLOOK
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
5%
10%
15%
20%
1
1.55
2.1
2.65
3.2
2015E 2016E 2017E
$2.2B
$2.1B
$1.9B
1000000000
1550000000
2100000000
2650000000
3200000000
2015E 2016E 2017E
$505M
$478M
$417M
29
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
forecastannualgrowthrate
Worldwide vs. U.S.
Kids mobile game revenue
0
75
150
225
300
2015E 2016E 2017E
$46M$49M$44M
$107M$104M$100M
$44M$37M$31M $37M$35M$31M
$263M
$244M
$211M
30
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
General F2P IAP vs. Kids F2P IAP vs. Subscriptions vs. Premium upfront vs. Premium IAP
US mobile game revenue from kids
31
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
US mobile game revenue from kids — growth rate
2015E 2016E 2017E
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
General F2P IAP vs. Kids F2P IAP vs. Subscriptions vs. Premium upfront vs. Premium IAP
32
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
Young
audiences are
cultivated for
agency
Entertainment is
transitioning from
passive to active
33
| Playable media & games market research
THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
THANK
YOU!
Director, Research & Consumer Insights
Stephanie Llamas
stephanie@superdataresearch.com
www.superdataresearch.com
@_SuperData
@Stephinaners
#CasualConnectUSA

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The View from Below - SuperData Kids Mobile Presentation at Casual Connect USA 2015

  • 1. THE VIEW FROM BELOW CASUAL CONNECT USA 2015 MOBILE GAMES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION STEPHANIE LLAMAS, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH @STEPHINANERS @_SUPERDATA #CASUALCONNECTUSA
  • 2. 2THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com | Playable media & games market research Stephanie Llamas Director, Research & Consumer Insights SuperData Research
  • 3. Relevant market data and insight on digital games and playable media | Playable media & games market research 3THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
  • 4. Relevant market data and insight on digital games and playable media Monthly analyses and industry reports using digital point-of-sale data | Playable media & games market research 4THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
  • 5. Relevant market data and insight on digital games and playable media Monthly analyses and industry reports using digital point-of-sale data Understand what people play, connect to and spend on | Playable media & games market research 5THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
  • 6. Relevant market data and insight on digital games and playable media Monthly analyses and industry reports using digital point-of-sale data Understand what people play, connect to and spend on A next gen approach for next gen entertainment | Playable media & games market research 6THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
  • 7. | Playable media & games market research 7THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
  • 8. 8 | Playable media & games market research LANDSCAPE THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
  • 9. Worldwide mobile games revenue, 2015E $24.1B Total worldwide market for mobile games, 2015E North America shows signs of stagnation but the U.S. still goes strong with almost a fifth of the global games market and $4.7B in revenue. 9 | Playable media & games market research North America $4.7billion Latin America $1.8 billion Asia $13.2billion Europe $3.7billion Rest of world $0.7 billion THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
  • 10. 10 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com Kids mobile game market share of WW mobile game market, 2015E 7.8% 2015E $1.9BWW kids mobile game revenue
  • 11. 11 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com 7.8% 9.3% Kids mobile game market share of WW mobile game market, 2015E Kids mobile game market share of US mobile game market, 2015E 2015E $417MUS kids mobile game revenue 2015E $1.9BWW kids mobile game revenue
  • 12. 12 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com 75 100 125 150 175 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Mobile cost per install and average revenue per user, indexed *Index compares a metric to a particular base month, specifically January 2013, represented by the value 100. 2014 2015
  • 13. 13 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com 0-5 6-9 10-13 PARENTS’ CHOICE PARENT/CHILD CONSENSUS WHATEVER IS COOL
  • 14. 14 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com Outlets for creativity Simple gameplay Complex gameplay Social aspects Appealing graphics Iconic characters/ mascots Cartoonish features Branding Educational gameplay Game quality preference Simulation Action Arcade Strategy Puzzle Sports Racing Other Word Adventure Board Mobile gaming preferences of US kids 8-11 years old
  • 15. 15 | Playable media & games market research US TRENDS THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
  • 16. 16 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com PREMIUM Monetization types for mobile games • Upfront game purchase • Premium+IAP
  • 17. 17 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com PREMIUM FREE-TO-PLAY Monetization types for mobile games • In-app purchases • Subscriptions • Advertising • Upfront game purchase • Premium+IAP
  • 18. 18 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com 0 40 80 120 160 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E $46M$49M $44M $42M $107M$104M$100M$96M 42% 27% 31% 55% 30% 14% US premium upfront and IAP revenue share by age, 2015E US premium mobile games revenue from kids 0-5 6-9 10-13 Upfront vs In-app purchases
  • 19. 19 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com CONS • Limited revenue stream • Short lifespan (unless you’re Minecraft) • Doesn’t fun ongoing development and support PROS • Largely COPPA-friendly • Transparent • Popular with parents Premium kids mobile games
  • 20. 20 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com 0 100 200 300 400 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E $344M $317M $273M $245M 75% 19% 6% US free-to-play revenue share by age, 2015E US free-to-play mobile games revenue from kids 0-5 6-910-13
  • 21. 21 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com CONTENT • Easier to follow regulations • Transparent • Hard to make money • Needs constant content updates CONSUMABLE • Highest potential for spending • Ethical gray area • Highly regulated • Competing with big studio games Free-to-play kids mobile games CONSUMABLE vs. CONTENT IAP
  • 22. 75% 19% 6% 22 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com 22% 39% 39%US free-to-play IAP and subscription revenue share by age, 2015E US free-to-play mobile games revenue from kids 0-5 6-910-13 0 100 200 300 400 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E $44M $37M $31M $22M $300M $280M $242M $223M free-to-play vs subscription purchases 0-5 6-9 10-13
  • 23. 23 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store* *Retrieved 9/11/2015
  • 24. 24 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store* *Retrieved 9/11/2015 free-to-play IAP
  • 25. 25 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store* *Retrieved 9/11/2015 free-to-play IAP vs premium (no IAP)
  • 26. 26 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store* *Retrieved 9/11/2015 free-to-play IAP vs premium (no IAP) vs subscription
  • 27. 27 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com Free-to-play kids mobile games SUBSCRIPTIONS CONS • Hard to find on Google Play • Less pricing flexibility • Technical limitations PROS • Growing in popularity • Transparent • Predictable and recurring revenue Confirm Your In-App Purchase Do you want to subscribe to this super awesome kids game for $2.99 a month? Cancel Buy
  • 28. | Playable media & games market research 28 OUTLOOK THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
  • 29. 5% 10% 15% 20% 1 1.55 2.1 2.65 3.2 2015E 2016E 2017E $2.2B $2.1B $1.9B 1000000000 1550000000 2100000000 2650000000 3200000000 2015E 2016E 2017E $505M $478M $417M 29 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com forecastannualgrowthrate Worldwide vs. U.S. Kids mobile game revenue
  • 30. 0 75 150 225 300 2015E 2016E 2017E $46M$49M$44M $107M$104M$100M $44M$37M$31M $37M$35M$31M $263M $244M $211M 30 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com General F2P IAP vs. Kids F2P IAP vs. Subscriptions vs. Premium upfront vs. Premium IAP US mobile game revenue from kids
  • 31. 31 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com US mobile game revenue from kids — growth rate 2015E 2016E 2017E 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% General F2P IAP vs. Kids F2P IAP vs. Subscriptions vs. Premium upfront vs. Premium IAP
  • 32. 32 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com Young audiences are cultivated for agency Entertainment is transitioning from passive to active
  • 33. 33 | Playable media & games market research THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com THANK YOU! Director, Research & Consumer Insights Stephanie Llamas stephanie@superdataresearch.com www.superdataresearch.com @_SuperData @Stephinaners #CasualConnectUSA