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C&W Corporate Finance
EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE
LOAN SALES MARKET
Q4 2015
A C&W Corporate Finance Publication
EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE LOAN SALES HEAT MAP 2016
Following a record €85.9bn of closed sales in 2015, C&W Corporate Finance provides a detailed outlook of the year ahead
• C&W Corporate Finance recorded €85.9bn of closed
European real estate loan (RE loan) and real estate owned
(REO) sales in 2015, surpassing the previous high of €82.1bn
in 2014.
• Q4 2015 was the busiest quarter ever recorded with over
€39.4bn of transactions closing, driven by UKAR’s Granite
Portfolio and NAMA’s Project Arrow.
• The UK and Ireland once again led the way, together
accounting for 71% of all sales. Spanish sales dropped by
41% whilst Italian sales increased 12.5 times.
• Asset management agencies (AMA) related to 38% of the total
volume transacted in 2015, with UKAR and NAMA alone
accounting for €30.5bn of sales.
• US Capital continued to flood into Europe, with Cerberus
topping the investor league table having purchased
€28.1bn of European RE loans and REOs in 2015.
• C&W Corporate Finance’s “heat map” has identified the
UK, Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands and Italy as markets
predicted to have high levels of activity in 2016.
• As the fourth busiest market in 2015 and more banks
readying portfolios for sale, Italy is tipped to see
significant growth in sales volumes in 2016.
• With €77.6bn of live and planned sales currently being
tracked, C&W Corporate Finance estimates that the
2016 closed transaction volume will be in the region of
€70-80bn.
2
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
CLOSED TRANSACTIONS 2015
VOLUMES
New record set as closed European RE Loan and REO sales
volume surges past €85.9bn in 2015
Following a flurry of activity in Q4, C&W Corporate Finance
estimates that a total of €85.9bn of RE loan and REO transactions
completed throughout 2015. With many key vendors completing
their deleveraging plans, the total for 2015 surpassed the previous
high of €82.1bn recorded in 2014.
Despite volumes in the first nine months of the year trailing those
observed in 2014, the total for 2015 was substantially boosted by a
handful of very large deals in the UK and Ireland towards the year
end. In fact, over €39.4bn of transactions closed in Q4 alone,
representing 46% of the annual total and the most ever transacted in
a single quarter.
KEY TRANSACTIONS
Record 2015 closed volume built on “Granite”
The final quarter of 2015 saw both UKAR and NAMA complete the
sales of their respective c. €17.8bn Granite Portfolio and c. €6.3bn
Project Arrow, filling the gap in the market left by the likes of IBRC,
Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) and RBS who took centre stage in
2014.
Looking to repay a Government bailout loan, UKAR sold a portfolio
of former Northern Rock mortgages to Cerberus, who themselves
had an agreement with TSB Bank for the transfer of a c. €4.5bn
portion of better performing loans. Having been purchased by Banco
Sabadell earlier in 2015, this was a leading example of how
international banks are increasingly looking to use the UK loan sales
market to rapidly grow their lending books.
Concurrently, Cerberus also purchased Project Arrow, NAMA’s
largest ever sale. This alone accounted for c. 26% of the Irish closed
volume and highlights the AMA’s key role in the loan sales market.
c. €85.9bn of
closed transactions
during 2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013 2014 2015
#ofSales
ClosedVolume(€bn)
Closed Volume (OPB) # of Sales
EUROPEAN RE LOAN & REO CLOSED
TRANSACTIONS 2012 – 2015 (OPB - €BN)
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
0
5
10
15
20
25
UK Ireland Spain Italy Germany Other Europe
ClosedVolume(OPB-€bn)
Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
QUARTERLY EUROPEAN RE LOAN & REO CLOSED TRANSACTIONS (OPB - €BN)
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
3
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
TYPE & SIZE
More residential backed portfolios coming to the market
The UKAR sale highlights how the collateral type has changed over
the past year. Whilst 2014 was dominated by “mega-deals” (sales
with a face value greater than €1bn) secured mainly by commercial
real estate (CRE) with an element of residential, 2015 has seen
large residential loan portfolios take the headlines. Additionally,
residential loan sales accounted for 38% of the total volume in 2015
compared to 18% in 2014. This is unsurprising given that the
recovery in residential assets tends to lag that of CRE, and indicates
a trend which is likely to follow across Europe in future years.
Compared to Q4 2014 where €24.0bn of RE loans and REOs
changed hands across 47 transactions, only 28 deals completed in
Q4 2015. Furthermore, with 15 “mega-deals” closing in 2015
compared to 16 in 2014, the average sales volume has increased
by 6% YOY to c. €627m. Overall, it has become apparent in 2015
that more vendors are now disposing of their non-core assets in a
small number of large transactions to maximise proceeds while
economising costs and time.
GEOGRAPHY
71% of 2015 transactions relate to the UK and Ireland
Due to a busy Q4, the UK once again leads the way accounting for
43% of all sales with Ireland maintaining 2014 activity levels with c.
€23.7bn closing in 2015. In contrast, Spain saw a 41% drop in
activity compared to 2014; meanwhile Italian sales increased 12.5
times to c. €5.0bn.
“Although the UK and Ireland have again
topped the sales volumes in 2015, there
has been a real shift in the product
vendors are offering. Supported by
growth in the underlying residential
market, large mortgage portfolios have
dominated the headlines.”
Federico Montero
Partner, Head of Loan Sales
EMEA Corporate Finance
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
36,854
23,746
3,314
130
2,408
9,536
910
4,992
2,200
1,633
156
59
Ireland
UK
Spain
Germany
Netherlands
Italy
Romania
Portugal
Pan-European
Belgium
Slovenia
France
CLOSED SALES BY GEOGRAPHY 2015 (OPB - €M)
43%
27%
11%
6%
4%
9%
UK Ireland
Spain Italy
Germany Other Europe
69%
18%
1%
12%
55%38%
0.3%
7%
CRE Loans Resi Loans
Corporate Loans SME
REOs
TYPE OF CLOSED SALES
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
2014
2015
4
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
KEY VENDORS
Granite Portfolio makes UKAR top seller
Due to the aforementioned €17.8bn Granite Portfolio, UKAR was
the largest vendor of European RE loans in 2015 accounting for c.
21% of the total annual sales volume. With c. €49bn of gross non-
core real estate (NCRE) assets remaining, the AMA is expected to
be active in 2016 and is reportedly planning the sale of c. £17bn of
Bradford & Bingley (B&B) loans.
NAMA’s book going in the right direction after “Arrow”
Across the Irish Sea, NAMA also had a busy year closing c.
€12.7bn of RE loan and REO sales representing an increase of
25% on volumes recorded in 2014. In contrast to UKAR, this total
was across 26 transactions making the agency the most active
vendor of the year based on the number of deals completed.
The most notable of NAMA’s deals was the €6.3bn Irish Project
Arrow acquired by Cerberus, the entity’s largest deal to date as it
looks to redeem at least 80% of its senior debt by the end of 2016.
Since the underlying Irish real estate markets have continued to
improve, the agency has also increased the number of land and
hotel REOs coming to market. In a bid to maximise its portfolio’s
value, NAMA has recently announced that it will enter the next
phase of its programme and begin to look for development
partners, a tactic also adopted by its Spanish counterpart SAREB.
RBS “Clear”s up legacy Irish Ulster Bank portfolio
Although it was previously believed that Project Finn was RBS’s
final sale of Ulster Bank loans, December saw the financial
institution close the sale of Project Clear, a c. €2bn portfolio
secured against 1,850 acres of zoned land. The successful parties
of Cairn Homes and Lone Star will now look to build approximately
20,000 houses and apartments amid an improving residential
market. Despite currently marketing the £600m Project Detroit of
mainly UK granular performing loans, RBS will likely take a back
seat in 2016 as it completes the run down of its internal bad bank,
Capital Resolution.
AMA closed €32.5bn of sales in 2015
Given the activity of both NAMA and UKAR, it is unsurprising that
AMA accounted for 38% of the total volume of European RE loans
and REOs transacted in 2015. The importance of these two entities
is further highlighted by the fact that AMA related to 51% of all
sales in the UK and Ireland.
However, just €1.9bn of the annual total corresponds to the
remaining European AMA. Looking ahead to 2016, it can be
expected that these agencies will play a more significant role in the
market. FMS is reportedly selling the German €230m Project
Samba and has further portfolios lined up, whilst the Dutch
government has recently announced that it will look to privatise
Propertize which still has c. €5.5bn of NCRE exposure. Despite
holding a relatively small volume of soured loans, the recent setup
of an Italian AMA appears to be a first step in the resolution of a
wider problem in Italy.
TOP 10 VENDORS 2015
VENDOR CLOSED SALES (OPB - €M) #
1 UKAR 17,847 1
2 NAMA 12,702* 26*
3 RBS 8,090* 13*
4 GE Capital 6,547 3
5 Permanent TSB 5,481 4
6 LBG 3,711 2
7 Aviva 3,645 1
8 UniCredit 3,135 5
9 Commerzbank 2,952 2
10 CaixaBank 2,480 3
UKAR and NAMA
together account for over
36% of all transactions
in 2015
Source: C&W Corporate Finance* Note: Includes transactions with other vendors
VENDORS OF CLOSED SALES 2015
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
21%
15%
9%
8%
6%
41%
UKAR NAMA
RBS GE Capital
Permanent TSB Remaining Vendors
5
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
INVESTOR LEAGUE TABLE 2015
Cerberus retains position at the top of C&W Corporate
Finance’s Investor League Table, purchasing over
€28bn of European RE loans and REOs in 2015
Following on from its successes in 2014, Cerberus once again
finished the year at the top of the Investor League Table
having acquired c. €28.1bn of RE loans and REOs across
Europe. This represented a staggering 59% increase on the
volume the entity purchased in 2014, which in itself set a
record. Of course, this was significantly bolstered by its
procurement of UKAR’s Project Granite which alone
accounted for c. 48% of its total.
Whilst the top 5 spots in 2014 were fiercely competed for, it
was significantly noticeable how far ahead Cerberus was from
any other entity in terms of the face value of loans acquired in
2015.
Holding on to second place, Lone Star remained highly active
throughout Europe over the past year. The key transaction for
the US private equity firm was the €3.6bn Project Churchill
sold by Aviva, of which c. €200m has subsequently been
acquired by Tristan Capital in a process known as Project
Randolph.
Making up the remainder of the top five spots are the
consortium of Blackstone, CarVal and TPG which completed
the acquisition of €3.8bn of GE Capital UK mortgages, TSB
Bank with its share of Project Granite, and Deutsche Bank
with its purchase of €1.2bn of Erste Group loans.
INVESTOR
2015 2014
KEY PROJECTS
VOLUME (€M) # POSITION
1 Cerberus 28,110 11 1
• Project Arrow - €6.3bn
• Granite Portfolio - €13.4bn
2 Lone Star 5,778 5 2
• Project Parrot NPLs - €0.7bn
• Project Churchill - €3.6bn
3 Blackstone / CarVal / TPG * 5,130 1 N/A • GE Capital Mortgages - €5.1bn
4 TSB Bank 4,455 1 N/A • UKAR Northern Rock Mortgages - €4.5bn
5 Deutsche Bank 3,749 6 6
• Project Maeve – €0.8bn
• Banca Comerciala Romana Loans – €1.2bn
6 Oaktree Capital 3,697 6 7
• Project Gaudi - €0.6bn
• Project Wind - €1.1bn
7 CarVal / Goldman Sachs * 3,500 1 4 • Project Poseidon - €3.5bn
8 Apollo / Deutsche Bank * 3,035 3 N/A
• Project Leinster - €1.0bn
• Project Finn CRE Loan Tranche - €1.5bn
9 Allianz / Hammerson 2,570 1 N/A • Project Jewel - €2.6bn
10 Sankaty 2,125 4 N/A
• Project Commander - €0.6bn
• Project Chloe - €0.8bn
Cerberus and Lone Star
take top two spots as US
capital continues to dominate
INVESTOR LEAGUE TABLE 2015
* Note: Total volume excludes transactions completed individually by each entity Source: C&W Corporate Finance
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Cerberus Lone Star Blackstone /
CarVal / TPG *
TSB Bank Deutsche
Bank
ClosedVolume(OPB-€bn)
2014 2015
TOP 5 RE LOAN & REO BUYERS 2015 (OPB - €BN)
Source: C&W Corporate Finance* Note: Volume excludes transactions completed
individually by each entity
6
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
EUROPEAN RE LOAN SALES HEAT MAP
Following extensive research, C&W Corporate Finance has developed a “European
RE Loan Sales Heat Map” with the aim of providing an overview of how it foresees
the market developing in 2016 and beyond
Based on an understanding of remaining NCRE exposure and knowledge of activity to date, a
forecast of 2016 sales volumes has been estimated for each of the key European real estate
loan sales markets. Please note, that those countries shaded in grey have not been analysed
as they are either viewed as being relatively inactive or lack market transparency.
The following pages provides a summary of a detailed analysis of each of the markets shown
on the map including a review of market to date, the remaining NCRE exposure, and which
entities are likely to be key future vendors.
PORTUGAL
Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f)
NCRE exposure €11.0bn
AMA NCRE exposure €2.8bn
# Banks / AMAs with NCE 3 / 1
Closed RE Loan
& REO Sales
2012 €0.1bn
2013 -
2014 -
2015 €0.9bn
Total €1.0bn
Live Sales -
Planned Sales -
IRELAND
Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f)
NCRE exposure €34.1bn
AMA NCRE exposure €12.9bn
# Banks / AMAs with NCE 4 / 1
Closed RE Loan
& REO Sales
2012 €4.5bn
2013 €4.6bn
2014 €22.6bn
2015 €23.7bn
Total €55.5bn
Live Sales €0.6bn
Planned Sales €6.7bn
SPAIN
Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f)
NCRE exposure €201.4bn
AMA NCRE exposure €87.2bn
# Banks / AMAs with NCE 11 / 2
Closed RE Loan
& REO Sales
2012 €6.2bn
2013 €4.5bn
2014 €16.3bn
2015 €9.5bn
Total €36.6bn
Live Sales €9.4bn
Planned Sales €0.1bn
UK
Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f)
NCRE exposure €84.5bn
AMA NCRE exposure €51.0bn
# Banks / AMAs with NCE 10 / 4
Closed RE Loan
& REO Sales
2012 €6.7bn
2013 €10.9bn
2014 €31.2bn
2015 €36.9bn
Total €85.6bn
Live Sales €2.1bn
Planned Sales €38.0bn
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ClosedVolume(€bn)
Closed Volume
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ClosedVolume(€bn)
Closed Volume
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ClosedVolume(€bn)
Closed Volume
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ClosedVolume(€bn)
Closed Volume
7
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
AUSTRIA & CEE
Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f)
NCRE exposure N/A*
AMA NCRE exposure €10.3bn
# Banks / AMAs with NCE N/A* / 4
Closed RE Loan
& REO Sales
2012 -
2013 €0.2bn
2014 €1.2bn
2015 €4.0bn
Total €5.3bn
Live Sales €0.6bn
Planned Sales -
* Note: C&W has not estimated the total NCRE exposure of Austria & CEE due to a lack of market transparency
GERMANY
Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f)
NCRE exposure €13.7bn
AMA NCRE exposure €3.4bn
# Banks / AMAs with NCE 7 / 1
Closed RE Loan
& REO Sales
2012 €5.1bn
2013 €8.2bn
2014 €4.6bn
2015 €3.3bn
Total €21.2bn
Live Sales €2.3bn
Planned Sales €2.5bn
NETHERLANDS
Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f)
NCRE exposure €15.9bn
AMA NCRE exposure €4.7bn
# Banks / AMAs with NCE 5 / 2
Closed RE Loan
& REO Sales
2012 €0.6bn
2013 €1.5bn
2014 €1.5bn
2015 €2.4bn
Total €6.0bn
Live Sales €0.6bn
Planned Sales €6.1bn
ITALY
Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f)
NCRE exposure €66.4bn
AMA NCRE exposure €1.1bn
# Banks / AMAs with NCE 6 / 2
Closed RE Loan
& REO Sales
2012 -
2013 -
2014 €0.4bn
2015 €5.0bn
Total €5.4bn
Live Sales €0.7bn
Planned Sales €5.0bn
2016 FORECASTED SALES VOLUME KEY
= N/A
= >€20bn
= €15-20bn
= €10-15bn
= €5-10bn
= <€5bn0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ClosedVolume(€bn)
Closed Volume
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ClosedVolume(€bn)
Closed Volume
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ClosedVolume(€bn)
Closed Volume
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ClosedVolume(€bn)
Closed Volume
8
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
Top Vendors
2012-2015
Top Buyers
2012-2015
NCRE Holders
2016
1
NAMA
€16.6bn
Cerberus
€11.2bn
NAMA
38%
2
RBS
€11.8bn
CarVal / GS1
€9.0bn
AIB
34%
3
IBRC
€10.7bn
Lone Star
€5.9bn
Bank of Ireland
20%
4
LBG
€10.3bn
Apollo / DB1
€3.0bn
Danske Bank
8%
5
Permanent
TSB
€2.5bn
Apollo
€2.6bn
Permanent TSB
1%
Top Vendors
2012-2015
Top Buyers
2012-2015
NCRE Holders
2016
1
UKAR
€21.8bn
Cerberus
€31.4bn
UKAR
58%
2
IBRC
€8.0bn
Lone Star
€12.3bn
Co-operative
14%
3
NAMA
€7.9bn
Blackstone /
CarVal / TPG1
€5.1bn
Nationwide
7%
4
LBG
€7.1bn
TSB Bank
€4.5bn
Permanent TSB
4%
5
RBS
€6.6bn
CarVal2
€3.4bn
Bank of Ireland
4%
6.7
10.9
31.2
36.9
15
20
41
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
2012 2013 2014 2015
#ofsales
Volume(OPB-€bn)
Closed Volume # of sales
UK - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn)
IRELAND
Activity peaked in 2015
Like the UK, Ireland has been a key target for
opportunistic US investors and loan sales activity has
increased substantially since 2012. With over
€23.7bn of closed sales, 2015 was the most active
year ever recorded and was boosted by NAMA’s
€6.3bn Project Arrow as well as LBG’s €3.7bn Project
Poseidon which marked its final sale of Irish non-core
assets.
Whilst IBRC, LBG and RBS have now completed
their deleveraging, NAMA still has c. €38bn of gross
NCRE of which a third is estimated will be subject to
loan sale processes. Other potential key vendors with
exposure include Allied Irish Bank and Bank of
Ireland, the former of which is rumoured to be mulling
an imminent sale.
NAMA to continue as key vendor in 2016
2016 will likely be the last significant year for Ireland,
albeit volumes are unlikely to reach those seen in
2014 and 2015. NAMA will look to complete its sales
plan and thereafter the market can be expected to
quieten as stock levels diminish. Activity will be
supported by strong investor demand on the back of
further expected compression of prime real estate
yields throughout Ireland.
(*) Notes: 1. Volumes exclude transactions completed individually by each entity
2. Total for CarVal excludes a c. €740m deal completed in partnership with Goldman Sachs
4.5 4.6
22.6
23.7
7
18
43
37
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015
#ofsales
Volume(OPB-€bn)
Closed Volume # of sales
Ireland - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn)
UK
Over €36.9bn closed in 2015
The UK has led activity from 2012, with the likes of LBG
and RBS quick to realise their non-core assets and set up
internal “bad banks”. 2015 saw a record €36.9bn of RE
loans and REOs change hands, more than the €31.3bn
sold across all of Europe in 2013.
However, this total was magnified by UKAR’s €17.8bn sale
and the number of sales is a better indication of the future
direction of the market. 28 transactions closed in 2015
compared to 41 in 2014, signalling that supply is becoming
more lumpy and will begin to reduce going forward.
2016 to be busy but limited supply of future vendors
Apart from UKAR which has announced plans to explore
the sale of c. £17bn of B&B mortgages, the UK has limited
supply. Notable holders include the Co-operative Group
which is gauging investor appetite for its €6.6bn Optimum
Portfolio, and Permanent TSB which delayed the sale of its
remaining Capital Home Loans due to market congestion.
The type of product on offer is also changing, with more
residential rather than CRE loans coming to market. With
the quality of loans increasing, several performing
portfolios have recently traded including Coventry Building
Society’s sale of a c. €419m portfolio to TwentyFour Asset
Management. This trend is anticipated to continue and will
attract a different type of buyer to the usual US private
equity firms.
9
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
GERMANY
Germany opted for different approach to UK
Compared to the UK and Ireland, the German RE loan
sales market has seen relatively low levels of activity. In
fact, levels have been decreasing since its high of
€8.2bn in 2013, and just €3.3bn of sales were recorded
in 2015.
Eager to avoid the large write-downs crystallised upon
selling non-performing loan (NPL) portfolios and
supported by low funding costs, German financial
institutions have held their NCRE exposure with the view
that the underlying real estate will rebound. As a result,
the main vendors to date have been international rather
than German banks such as RBS, Barclays and LBG.
Investor interest remains high but stock limited
Looking at the remaining NCRE exposure, the main
holder is Commerzbank which includes the assets held
by Hypothekenbank Frankfurt. Having completed sales
of non-core assets throughout Europe, the group is likely
to turn its attention to its remaining German exposure
over the coming years.
FMS Wertmanagement is also likely to follow suit and is
reportedly preparing its residual exposure for sale in
addition to the currently marketed €230m Project
Samba. In conclusion, the size of the German NPL
market is limited, although those who do decide to sell
will benefit from robust investor appetite.
NETHERLANDS
Growing activity expected to continue
With several Dutch banks springing into action, 2015
saw c. €2.4bn of closed sales representing an
increase of 66% YOY. Since the Netherlands is
behind the UK, Ireland and Spain on the loan sales
curve, activity can be expected to increase further.
Transactions to date have had an average size of c.
€238m, allowing a wealth of investors to participate
in sales processes. Combined with the fact that
significant improvements are anticipated in the Dutch
real estate market, investor appetite will remain high
over the upcoming years. The holders of NCRE
exposure such as Rabobank and ING will be hoping
that this forecast holds true, and will be eager to take
advantage.
“Swan” comes to surface
The main headlines in 2016 will undoubtedly be
grabbed by the sale of Propertize and its associated
€5.5bn loan portfolio, dubbed Project Swan. Given
that the Dutch portion of this portfolio alone accounts
for c. 27% of the total NCRE exposure of the
Netherlands, it is apparent that the future market will
never be as large as other European countries.
Nevertheless, the sale will attract attention from all
the big players and could potentially lead to a string
of subsequent secondary sales.
Top Vendors
2012-2015
Top Buyers
2012-2015
NCRE Holders
2016
1
Staalbankiers
€1.2bn
Achmea
€1.1bn
Rabobank
37%
2
Morgan Stanley
€1.1bn
Fortress
€1.1bn
Propertize
27%
3
FGH Bank
€1.1bn
Kildare
€0.7bn
ING
26%
4
GE
€0.5bn
TPG / Patron
€0.7bn
ABN AMRO
4%
5
Propertize
€0.4bn
Venn Partners
€0.5bn
Van Lanschot
3%
Top Vendors
2012-2015
Top Buyers
2012-2015
NCRE Holders
2016
1
Lone Star
€3.7bn
Aareal Bank
€3.6bn
Commerzbank
53%
2
RBS
€1.9bn
Lone Star
€3.5bn
FMS
25%
3
Bundesbank
€1.8bn
Cerberus
€1.8bn
Landesbank BW
6%
4
Barclays
€1.6bn
Oaktree
€1.6bn
ING
5%
5
LBG
€1.6bn
Kildare
€1.6bn
Deutsche Bank
5%
5.1
8.2
4.6
3.3
11
14
10 11
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015
#ofsales
Volume(OPB-€bn)
Closed Volume # of sales
Germany - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn)
0.6
1.5 1.5
2.4
1
7 7
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2012 2013 2014 2015
#ofsales
Volume(OPB-€bn)
Closed Volume # of sales
Netherlands - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn)
10
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
PORTUGAL
REO transactions boost Portuguese total
Due to several foreclosed asset sales, 2015 was
the busiest year to date for the Portuguese RE loan
and REO market with just under €1bn of closed
transactions. In addition, many of the large Spanish
transactions will contain Portuguese elements
which will not be captured within the above volume.
However, the total also emphasises that Portugal
has limited stock.
Portugal to benefit from interest in Spain
Nonetheless, Portugal has around €11.0bn of
NCRE which is not far short of that estimated for
Germany. Of this total, it is estimated that 89% is
held by Portuguese financial entities including
Millennium BCP and CGD, with the remaining 11%
held by Commerzbank Group which has been
active in Iberia over the past three years.
Although not entirely transparent, it is estimated
that Novo Banco holds approximately €2.9bn of
NCRE assets based on the former balance sheets
of the Espirito Santo Financial Group. With investor
interest “spilling over” from its neighbour Spain,
there is a strong possibility that this exposure will
come to the market at some stage over the next
few years.
SPAIN
Closed volumes experience slight dip in 2015
Contrary to expectations, Spain saw a 41% drop in
the level of completed transactions in 2015 with c.
€9.5bn closing. However, C&W Corporate Finance is
currently tracking approximately €9.4bn of live sales
including Bankia’s €4.2bn Big Bang REO portfolio
highlighting that activity is still ongoing.
One notable trend witnessed in 2015 which explains
the above decrease was the number of defaulted
sales, with a common reason being that bids did not
meet vendor expectations. Many entities will continue
to hold assets awaiting further improvements within
the real estate markets and until they consider that
they are minimising portfolio write-downs.
Increasing number of Spanish vendors
With over €200bn of NCRE exposure, the Spanish RE
loan sales market has a few years to go. Although
SAREB holds 43% of this total, 2015 saw an increase
in the number of new vendors bringing portfolios to
the market. Many of these portfolios were relatively
small as banks were “testing the water”, but it can be
anticipated that larger sales will follow in the
upcoming year from the likes of Caixabank and
BBVA. As proven by the highly competitive processes
and resulting number of underbidders seen to date,
investor interest in Spain can be expected to remain
high.
Top Vendors
2012-2015
Top Buyers
2012-2015
NCRE Holders
2016
1
Catalunya
Banc
€0.5bn
Lone Star
€0.5bn
Millennium
BCP
46%
2
CGD
€0.3bn
Sheikh Al Jaber
€0.3bn
Novo Banco
26%
3
Banco
Montepio
€0.1bn
Och-Ziff
€0.1bn
CGD
17%
4
Finangeste
€0.1bn
HIG
€0.1bn
Commerzbank
11%
Top Vendors
2012-2015
Top Buyers
2012-2015
NCRE Holders
2016
1
Catalunya Banc
€6.4bn
Blackstone
€7.7bn
SAREB
43%
2
Hypothekenbank
€5.0bn
Lone Star
€4.3bn
CaixaBank
14%
3
Bankia
€4.3bn
BAML
€3.3bn
Banco
Popular
12%
4
Santander
€3.6bn
Oaktree
€2.6bn
BBVA
12%
5
SAREB
€3.5bn
JP Morgan
€2.2bn
Santander
7%
6.2
4.5
16.3
9.5
8
26 27
29
0
10
20
30
40
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015
#ofsales
Volume(OPB-€bn)
Closed Volume # of sales
Spain - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn)
0.1
0.9
1
3
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
#ofsales
Volume(OPB-€bn)
Closed Volumes # of sales
Portugal - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn)
11
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
Top Vendors
2012-2015
Top Buyers
2012-2015
NCRE Holders
20162
1
Commerzbank
€2.2bn
Deutsche Bank
€1.6bn
HETA
59%
2
Erste Group
€1.6bn
JP Morgan
€1.5bn
MARK
22%
3
Volksbank
€1.0bn
Lone Star
€0.7bn
DUTB
15%
4
IBRC
€0.3bn
AnaCap /
Deutsche Bank /
HIG1
€0.5bn
KA Finanz
4%
5
DUTB / Bawag
€0.2bn
CA Immo
€0.4bn
Top Vendors
2012-2015
Top Buyers
2012-2015
NCRE Holders
2016
1
UniCredit
€3.5bn
Fortress /
Eurocastle1
€1.2bn
UniCredit
45%
2
Citigroup
€0.4bn
PIMCO /
GWM1
€1.2bn
Intesa
Sanpaolo
30%
3
Sofigeco
€0.4bn
Cerberus
€0.8bn
UBI Banca
13%
4
Popolare di
Bari
€0.4bn
PVE Capital
€0.6bn
Banco
Popolare
8%
5
RBS
€0.2bn
TPG
€0.4bn
Commerzbank
1%
ITALY
Italy 4th busiest market in 2015
Following a flurry of unsecured loan sales throughout
2013 and 2014, the Italian secured NPL market picked
up in 2015. Approximately €5.0bn of RE loan and REO
sales transacted throughout the year, supported by
several sales from UniCredit which has become
increasingly active. The fact that the closed sales volume
has grown 12.5 times YOY summarises how Italy is
gradually becoming a key market.
Just the start for Italy
As the main holders of NCRE exposure, both UniCredit
and Intesa Sanpaolo will look to step up their activity
levels going forward. In addition, several international
financial entities are keen to dispose of their Italian
exposures, including Commerzbank, FMS and EAA. The
latter is currently marketing the €350m Project Botticelli,
which is secured by Italian residential and industrial
assets.
After months of speculation, Italy finally established a
national AMA. Despite currently only holding c. €750m of
real estate related NPLs, the National Resolution Fund
can be expected to inherit further soured loans in the
next 24 months. Following the success of other European
AMA such as NAMA, the Italians have a good illustration
of how best to maximise recoveries. With reforms to
enforcement legislation now in place, the Italian market is
set to grow further over the upcoming years.
AUSTRIA & CEE
Closed sales volume more than tripled in 2015
Like Italy, Austria and CEE has started to catch the
eyes of investors over the past 18 months and
consequently its sales volume has grown by 229%
YOY to c. €4.0bn. The most significant sale of the
year was Project Parrot, Commerzbank’s €2.2bn
loan portfolio secured by assets throughout
Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech
Republic.
Further opportunities to come from CEE AMA
Despite this growth, several sales have fallen
through due to legal complications, bids not
reaching vendor expectations, or a lack portfolio
information. The most recent example is Erste
Group’s €3.6bn Project Neptune which was
reportedly pulled after Lone Star’s binding bid fell
short of the vendor’s threshold.
Not only does this provide evidence that
opportunities in CEE have more complexities than
in other European regions, but also indicates that
some buyers may be reluctant to participate in
future processes. Although the NCRE exposure for
Austria and CEE has not been estimated, the
region has four AMA which will become more active
going forward. Nevertheless, activity is unlikely to
reach the levels seen in the UK, Ireland and Spain.
0.4
5.0
3
16
0
4
8
12
16
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015
#ofsales
Volume(OPB-€bn)
Closed Volume # of sales
Italy - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn)
0.1
1.2
4.0
1
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015
#ofsales
Volume(OPB-€bn)
Closed Volume # of sales
Austria & CEE - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn)
(*) Notes: 1. Volumes exclude transactions completed individually by each entity
2. C&W has not estimated the total NCRE exposure of Austria & CEE due to a lack of market transparency. The
percentages provided are therefore of the total NCRE exposure of the four AMA listed
12
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
LIVE & PLANNED TRANSACTIONS
LIVE TRANSACTIONS
€16.3bn of live sales being tracked
C&W Corporate Finance is currently tracking €16.3bn of
live transactions, a figure not too dissimilar to the €21.7bn
being followed at the end of 2014. Unsurprisingly, this
amount is way below the €54.0bn of live sales as at the
end of Q3 2015, highlighting the extent of the activity
witnessed in the final quarter of the year.
Spain accounts for 58% of live sales
With activity in the UK and Ireland having peaked and now
on the downward slope of the loan sales cycle, it is no
surprise that Spain accounts for 58% of the current live
total with €9.4bn of sales on the market. Despite reports
that SAREB will remain relatively dormant over the
upcoming year hindered by changes to Spanish accounting
rules, there has been an increase in the number of Spanish
lending entities bringing loan portfolios to the market.
Having delayed its sale of the €4.2bn Project Big Bang,
Bankia will look to close out the transaction at some point
in 2016.
Elsewhere in Europe, RBS will shortly look to finish its UK
deleveraging through the €810m Project Detroit and as
predicted, activity is steadily increasing in Italy with C&W
Corporate Finance currently tracking two live sales as well
as a healthy pipeline of planned transactions.
PLANNED TRANSACTIONS
Pipeline of €61.3bn of planned disposals
The start of 2016 will be supported by a substantial pipeline
of planned transactions which C&W Corporate Finance
estimates has a face value of c. €61.3bn. The UK currently
accounts for 62% of this figure given that UKAR, the Co-
operative Group and Permanent TSB are all waiting for the
most opportune moment to launch their respective UK
mortgage portfolios.
Making up a further 11% is Ireland, with the ever-active
NAMA looking to bring c. €6bn of RE loans to the market in
the form of Projects Emerald and Ruby. As discussed,
Allied Irish Bank is also rumoured to be preparing a
portfolio for market which will help boost Irish sales
volumes this year. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that activity in
2016 will reach the levels witnessed over the past two
years.
Investors awaiting Dutch and Italian portfolios
Unsurprisingly, 10% of planned sales relate to the
Netherlands due to Propertize’s plan to dispose of Project
Swan. Competition for the portfolio will be high as investors
look to gain an unprecedented exposure to the
Netherlands, a market where opportunities of this size will
be very few and far between. Following the success of a
string of unsecured loan portfolios, Italy as the third largest
holder of NCRE represents 8% of the planned transactions
for 2016.
Currently tracking
€77.6bn
of live and planned sales
PLANNED TRANSACTIONS BY COUNTRY
62%
11%
10%
8%
4%
5%
UK Ireland Netherlands
Italy Germany Other Europe
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
Spain Germany UK Italy Other
Europe
#ofSales
LiveVolume(OPB-€bn)
Live Volume # of Sales
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
LIVE TRANSACTIONS BY COUNTRY (€BN)
13
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
2016 KEY CONSIDERATIONS
Given the ever-changing nature of the European RE loan
and REO sales market, C&W Corporate Finance has
outlined several key considerations and trends expected in
2016
• Loan-on-loan financing: Following a period of very aggressive
financing, recent evidence shows that the trends in both LTVs
and margins are now reversing as lenders’ terms become more
and more dependent on the free cash flow available. As a
result, there may be an opportunity for other players, such as
private equity firms, to enter the loan-on-loan market and fill the
space left by withdrawing lenders.
• Servicing platforms: Following a string of investors purchasing
Spanish servicing platforms in 2013 and 2014, last year marked
the beginning of a period of consolidation and secondary sales.
Whilst several sales will have been triggered by the failure to
gain SAREB contracts for the management of its loan and real
estate portfolios, others are simply looking to exit the market. A
prime example is Centerbridge’s sale of Aktua which it
purchased in 2012 from Banesto. In comparison, there is
growing investor interest for Italian servicing platforms ahead of
an anticipated increase in activity.
• New asset management agencies: As discussed, 2015 saw
new AMA established in both Italy and Hungary. The Italian
National Resolution Fund inherited an estimated €750m of real
estate related loans whilst MARK has yet to receive any soured
loans. It is therefore likely that both of these entities can be
expected to use 2016 to formulate exit strategies rather than be
leading sellers.
• Secondary sales: Given the high levels of activity since 2012
and the typical workout plans assumed by investors, it can be
expected that further secondary loan and foreclosed asset sales
will come to the market in 2016. 2015 saw several secondary
loan sales transact, the most recent being Lone Star’s disposal
of c. €200m of loans from Aviva’s Project Churchill.
EXPECTATIONS FOR 2016
C&W Corporate Finance anticipates €70-80bn of
transactions in 2016
• UKAR’s sale of c. £17bn of B&B mortgages will be the largest
sale to date if the entity goes ahead with its plans.
• NAMA will likely be the key seller in Ireland, further reducing its
remaining portfolio through Projects Emerald and Ruby.
• Elsewhere in Europe, AMA such as FMS Wertmanagement and
Propertize can be expected to be active.
• With an increasing number of vendors and over €200bn of
NCRE, Spain is anticipated to be one of the leading markets in
2016. Furthermore, driven by increasing investor interest and a
recovering real estate market, Italian lenders will bring more to
the market over the upcoming year.
• Given the level of live and planned sales currently being
tracked, C&W Corporate Finance estimates that the 2016
closed transaction volume will be in the region of €70-80bn.
2016 RE loan and
REO sales
forecasted to be in
the region of
€70-80bn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Volume(OPB-€bn)
Closed Live Planned
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
FORECASTED CLOSED SALES 2016 (OPB - €BN)
Forecast
Range
(€70-80bn)
14
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
CLOSED RE LOAN & REO TRANSACTIONS 2015
Over €85.9bn of closed transactions
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
DATE VENDOR PROJECT TYPE COUNTRY BUYER FACE VALUE €M
Jan-15 Banco Sabadell Project Triton CRE Loans Spain Deutsche Bank 435
Jan-15 Bank of Ireland Project Lagan 1 REOs UK Ability Group 20
Jan-15 Bank of Ireland Project Lagan 2 REOs UK Deka 60
Jan-15 Bank of Ireland Project Lagan 3 REOs UK DTZ Investors 54
Jan-15 BPER Sardaleasing 45 Italian properties REOs Italy Beni Stabili 30
Jan-15 Erste Group Project Saturn CRE Loans Romania Deutsche Bank 433
Jan-15 FGH Bank / HSH Nordbank Dutch office loan CRE Loans Netherlands Goldman Sachs 109
Jan-15 Fortress Cannon Bridge House Junior Loan CRE Loans UK Blackstone 36
Jan-15 Goldman Sachs Project Wagner CRE Loans Germany Otto Group 650
Jan-15 Iccrea BancaImpresa Industrial & Logistics REOs REOs Italy Beni Stabili 40
Jan-15 Llave de Oro Project Oro REOs Spain Goldman Sachs 90
Jan-15 Nationwide Marble Portfolio REOs UK Goldman Sachs 149
Jan-15 SAREB Project Aneto CRE Loans Spain Blackstone 237
Jan-15 SAREB Barcelona Office REOs Spain Inmobiliaria Colonial 10
Jan-15 Wells Fargo Helios Portfolio CRE Loans Germany BAML 60
Jan-15 Banca Popolare di Bari Banca Tercas & Banca Caripe NPLs CRE Loans Italy Lone Star 400
Jan-15 NAMA Project Boyne CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank 287
Jan-15 NAMA Graham Harris London properties REOs UK Starwood Capital 278
Jan-15 NAMA UK loan portfolio CRE Loans UK Invel Real Estate Partners 189
Jan-15 RBS Project Herald REOs UK Heylo Housing / LCPF / Genesis HA / Fortis Living 135
Feb-15 Permanent TSB Project Leinster CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank / Apollo 1,000
Feb-15 Permanent TSB Project Munster CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank / Apollo 500
Feb-15 IBRC Project Pearl NPLs Resi Loans Ireland Mars Capital 406
Feb-15 Cassa di Risparmio di Cesana Northern Italian RE NPLs CRE Loans Italy HIG Bayside Capital 50
Feb-15 Natixis Park Inn Hotel NPL CRE Loans UK Kennedy Wilson 128
Feb-15 SAREB Residential Land REOs Spain Castlelake 13
Feb-15 SAREB Boadilla Residential Land REOs Spain Castlelake 13
Feb-15 Staalbankiers Dutch Residential Portfolio REOs Netherlands Round Hill Capital 98
Feb-15 UniCredit UCCMB Secured loans CRE Loans Italy Fortress/Eurocastle 1,200
Feb-15 UniCredit Levia Portfolio REOs Italy Cerberus 300
Feb-15 Danske Bank Project Griffin 1 CRE Loans Ireland Bank of Ireland 274
Feb-15 Danske Bank Project Griffin 2 CRE Loans Ireland Goldman Sachs 266
Feb-15 Starwood Capital Garda HQ Dublin REOs Ireland Hibernia REIT 70
Feb-15 NAMA Tara Collection - Facebook HQ REOs Ireland DZ Bank 232
Feb-15 NAMA Tara Collection - Alexandra House REOs Ireland Irish Life 34
Feb-15 NAMA Tara Collection - One Grand Canal Parade REOs Ireland Credit Suisse 18
Feb-15 NAMA Tara Collection - Lower Leeson Street REOs Ireland Jones Engineering 11
Mar-15 Lone Star Dublin Office Pool REOs Ireland Starwood Capital 350
Mar-15 Banco Sabadell Project Cadi CRE Loans Spain PIMCO 240
Mar-15 Catalunya Banc Vilamoura REOs Portugal Lone Star 500
Mar-15 Citigroup Enel CRE loan CRE Loans Italy TPG 220
Mar-15 IBRC Meir 23, Antwerp REOs Belgium GH Group 35
Mar-15 IBRC Centre Etoile & Louise 165, Brussels REOs Belgium Ghelamco Invest 24
Mar-15 ING Group Project Ogon CRE Loans Netherlands Apollo 100
Mar-15 ING Group Dutch CRE loans CRE Loans Netherlands Apollo 50
Mar-15 Sofigeco Italian Residential NPLs Resi Loans Italy PVE Capital 408
Mar-15 Kildare Partners Le Meridien hotel - Munich REOs Germany Deka 158
Mar-15 Permanent TSB Capital Home Loans & servicing platform Resi Loans UK Cerberus 3,500
Mar-15 NAMA Plum Portfolio REOs Ireland Marathon Asset Management 116
Apr-15 BBVA Barcelona student residencies REOs Spain The Student Hotel -
Apr-15 Citigroup Spanish mortgages Resi Loans Spain Apollo 371
Apr-15 Citigroup German retail mezzanine loans CRE Loans Germany BlackRock 100
Apr-15 Citigroup German retail mezzanine loans CRE Loans Germany Highbridge Principal Strategies 70
Apr-15 Co-operative Group Priory Centre, Dartford REOs UK Tristan Capital / Ellandi 45
Apr-15 GE Capital GE Capital CRE Performing Loans CRE Loans UK & Germany Blackstone 677
Apr-15 RBS MAC Property REOs Germany Och-Ziff 155
Apr-15 RBS German Mixed-use Portfolio REOs Germany Apollo 60
Apr-15 AIB Cornerstone Portfolio REOs Ireland Davidson Kempner 115
May-15 RBS Project Coney CRE Loans Ireland Sankaty 465
May-15 RBS Project Rathlin CRE Loans UK Cerberus 1,890
May-15 RBS / HSBC / Nationwide Project Spring REOs UK Varde Partners 186
May-15 RBS Risanamento office portfolio REOs Italy Goldman Sachs 80
May-15 NAMA Windsor House REOs UK Hastings Hotels 9
May-15 FMS Project Gaudi CRE Loans Spain Oaktree Capital 604
May-15 Bankia Project Commander CRE Loans Spain Sankaty 560
May-15 CGD Vale do Lobo stake REOs Portugal Sheikh Al Jaber 300
May-15 Financial Institution Pioneer Point NPL CRE Loans UK Kennedy Wilson 201
May-15 Kildare Partners Le Meridien Parkhotel - Frankfurt REOs Germany Art-Invest Real Estate 40
May-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Metropole Hotel Cork REOs Ireland Philip Hotel Holdings 5
May-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Johnstown House REOs Ireland Unknown 7
May-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Fels Point Hotel REOs Ireland Henggeler Family 4
May-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Maldron Wexford REOs Ireland Dalata 4
Jun-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Killeshin Hotel REOs Ireland Pat McDonagh 3
Jun-15 Commerzbank Project Sun CRE Loans Germany Oaktree Capital 752
Jun-15 Commerzbank Project Parrot - PLs CRE Loans Europe JP Morgan 1,467
Jun-15 Commerzbank Project Parrot - NPLs CRE Loans Europe Lone Star 733
Jun-15 Citigroup Excelsia Nove Debt CRE Loans Italy TPG 200
Jun-15 Bankia Project Castle CRE Loans Spain Davidson Kempner / BAML 383
Jun-15 Bank of China Grosvenor House Hotel Loan CRE Loans UK Reuben Brothers 412
Jun-15 SAREB Calle Velaquez Office REOs Spain Axiare Patrimonio 51
Jun-15 Propertize Dutch Office Portfolio REOs Netherlands Goldman Sachs 60
Jun-15 DUTB / Bawag Istrabenz loans CRE Loans Slovenia York Capital 156
Jul-15 LBG Project Poseidon - PLs CRE Loans Ireland Bank of Ireland 200
Jul-15 LBG Project Poseidon - NPLs CRE Loans Ireland & UK CarVal / Goldman Sachs 3,500
Jul-15 RBS Project Finn - CRE Loan Tranche CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank / Apollo 1,535
Jul-15 RBS Project Finn - Resi Loans Tranche Resi Loans Ireland Cerberus 741
Jul-15 RBS Project Finn - SMEs Tranche SME Ireland Sankaty 300
Jul-15 NAMA Project Maeve CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank 786
Jul-15 NAMA Project Arch CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank 608
Jul-15 Permanent TSB Project Connacht CRE Loans Ireland CarVal 481
Jul-15 NAMA Project Albion CRE Loans UK Oaktree Capital 305
Jul-15 Rabobank / RBS Project Trinity REOs Ireland Chartered Land 170
Jul-15 Bankinter 300 Residential Units REOs Spain Elliott Managament 60
Jul-15 Banco Mare Nostrum Project Pampa Resi Loans Spain Ellington Management 160
Jul-15 Banco Mare Nostrum Project Coronas CRE Loans Spain Apollo 100
Jul-15 GE Capital Germany Offices & Loans CRE Loans Germany Kildare Partners 740
Jul-15 NAMA Harvest Portfolio REOs Ireland Avenue Capital 40
Jul-15 ING Group 26 Rios Rosas REOs Spain M&G 175
Jul-15 CaixaBank Project Tourmalet Resi Loans Spain Blackstone 800
15
C&W Corporate Finance
JANUARY 2016
European Real Estate Loan Sales Market
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
LIVE RE LOAN & REO SALES
Currently tracking €16.3bn of live transactions
CLOSED RE LOAN & REO TRANSACTIONS 2015 (cont.)
Source: C&W Corporate Finance
DATE VENDOR PROJECT TYPE COUNTRY BUYER FACE VALUE €M
Jul-15 Bankia Project Wind - Mast Portfolio Resi Loans Spain Oaktree Capital / Chenavari 918
Jul-15 Bankia Project Wind - Board Portfolio CRE Loans Spain Oaktree Capital 178
Jul-15 NAMA Millennium Park REOs Ireland Tetarch Capital 36
Jul-15 UniCredit Italian REOs CRE Loans Italy Cerberus 205
Jul-15 Lone Star Rivas Futura REOs Spain Credit Suisse 52
Jul-15 Staalbankiers Dutch CRE Loans CRE Loans Netherlands Achmea Bank 364
Jul-15 Staalbankiers Dutch Residential Loans Resi Loans Netherlands Achmea Bank 693
Jul-15 LBG Lough Erne Resort REOs UK Vince Avenue / Tru Hotels & Resorts 11
Aug-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Glenroyal Hotel REOs Ireland Comer Group 11
Aug-15 IBRC Riverside One Stake REOs Ireland IPUT 81
Aug-15 FGH Bank Project River CRE Loans Netherlands Attestor Capital 250
Aug-15 Van Lanschot Project Lucas CRE Loans Netherlands Cerberus 400
Aug-15 SAREB GAL and Via Complutense Land REOs Spain Turnstone Corporate 14
Aug-15 Grupo Cooperativo Cajamar Spanish NPLs CRE Loans Spain Cerberus 400
Aug-15 Santander Four Madrid Offices REOs Spain Oaktree Capital 40
Aug-15 SAREB Two Residential Plots REOs Spain Grupo Insur -
Sep-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – South Court Hotel REOs Ireland GN Asset Management 2
Sep-15 NAMA Project Jewel CRE Loans Ireland Allianz Real Estate / Hammerson 2,570
Sep-15 Bank of Ireland National Portfolio REOs Ireland Davidson Kempner 170
Sep-15 Helaba Project Aurora CRE Loans Germany Cerberus 250
Sep-15 Aviva Project Churchill CRE Loans UK Lone Star 3,645
Sep-15 Finangeste Portuguese Secured Loans CRE Loans Portugal HIG Bayside Capital 110
Sep-15 CaixaBank Project More CRE Loans Spain Cerberus 780
Sep-15 Unknown UK Residential Mortgages Resi Loans UK Metro Bank 464
Oct-15 NAMA Hazel Portfolio REOs Ireland York Capital / Clarendon Properties 115
Oct-15 Ibercaja Banco Project Goya CRE Loans Spain Oaktree Capital 900
Oct-15 UniCredit Great Beauty Portfolio REOs Italy Morgan Stanley / Poste Vita 230
Oct-15 NAMA Project Arrow CRE Loans Ireland Cerberus 6,252
Oct-15 Santander Hyde Group Social Housing Loan Resi Loans UK Legal & General 203
Nov-15 Banco Sabadell Project Chloe CRE Loans Spain Sankaty 800
Nov-15 GE Capital UK Home Lending Mortgages Resi Loans UK Blackstone / TPG / CarVal 5,130
Nov-15 Fortress Operation Coast - Secured loans Resi Loans Spain Elliott Managament 252
Nov-15 RBS Bloomfield Shopping Centre REOs UK Tristan Capital / Ellandi 73
Nov-15 NAMA Elm Park REOs Ireland Starwood Capital 200
Nov-15 Banco Sabadell 67-69 Avenue Victor Hugo REOs France La Francaise 130
Nov-15 UKAR Granite Mortgage Portfolio Resi Loans UK Cerberus 13,392
Nov-15 UKAR NRAM Loans (from Granite portfolio) Resi Loans UK TSB Bank 4,455
Nov-15 HSH Nordbank Spring Property Portfolio REOs Netherlands M7 Real Estate 60
Nov-15 UniCredit Project Sandokan CRE Loans Italy PIMCO / GWM 1,200
Nov-15 NAMA / RBS Dublin 3.7 Acre Site REOs Ireland Ronan Group 200
Nov-15 Coventry Building Society UK Buy-to-let Mortgages Resi Loans UK TwentyFour Asset Management 419
Dec-15 RBS Project Clear CRE Loans Ireland Cairn Homes / Lone Star 2,000
Dec-15 NAMA Pentagon Centre REO UK Ellandi / Bridges Ventures 58
Dec-15 Bank of Ireland Project Lanyon REOs UK Davidson Kempner 68
Dec-15 RBS Project Door CRE Loans Italy BAML 100
Dec-15 CaixaBank Project Atalaya CRE Loans Spain TPG / Goldman Sachs 900
Dec-15 Deutsche Bank Italian Residential & Commercial RE NPLs Resi & CRE Loans Italy Algebris Investments 172
Dec-15 Propertize Project Dolphin CRE Loans Netherlands Goldman Sachs 224
Dec-15 NAMA Tallaght Cross West Apartments REOs Ireland Ires REIT 83
Dec-15 NAMA One Spencer Dock REOs Ireland Hines 240
Dec-15 Erste Group Banca Comerciala Romana CRE Loans Romania Deutsche Bank 1,200
Dec-15 Morgan Stanley / Prelios ICR 8 Italian NPLs CRE Loans Italy PVE Capital 157
Dec-15 Lone Star Project Randolph CRE Loans UK Tristan Capital 203
VENDOR PROJECT TYPE COUNTRY FACE VALUE €M
NAMA Project Lee CRE Loans Ireland 350
Goldman Sachs Project Tristan CRE Loans Germany 800
CaixaBank Project Eurostars REOs Spain 103
NAMA Project Slaney REOs Ireland 100
ING Group Eurocommerce Loans CRE Loans Netherlands 100
BBVA Project Otelo REOs Spain -
BBVA Project Zafiro REOs Spain 150
Santander Project Formentera CRE Loans Spain 170
ING Group Project Isabella CRE Loans Spain -
ING Group Project Julieta CRE Loans Spain 371
Ibercaja Banco Project Kite REOs Spain 800
Goldman Sachs / NAMA / Hines Spencer Dock Block R REOs Ireland 90
Rabobank De Rotterdam Towers REOs Netherlands 400
Intesa Sanpaulo PBZ Portfolio CRE Loans Croatia 200
BBVA Project Liceo CRE Loans Spain 70
SAREB Project Vega CRE Loans Spain 180
SAREB Project Silk CRE Loans Spain 400
NAMA Liffey Portfolio REOs Ireland 58
EAA Project Orange Resi Loans Germany 1,080
SAREB Project Macarena Resi Loans Spain 410
FMS Project Samba CRE Loans Germany 230
Eurobank Bancpost NPLs CRE Loans Romania 65
Bankia Project Big Bang REOs Spain 4,231
SAREB High value asset NPLs CRE Loans Spain 800
SAREB NPLS backed by Hotels, Warehouses & Retail CRE Loans Spain 200
Propertize Project Triple+ CRE Loans Netherlands 140
Portuguese Bank Project Andorra CRE Loans Portugal -
Kildare Partners Triple Portfolio REOs Germany 150
Hypo Tirol Bank Project Golden Roof CRE Loans Italy 364
FGH Bank Project Rembrandt CRE Loans Netherlands -
Blackstone Project Webb REOs UK 290
Banco Mare Nostrum Project Stream - Developer Loans CRE Loans Spain 160
Banco Mare Nostrum Project Stream - REOs REOs Spain 140
AIB Project Forge CRE Loans UK 743
AIB Project Hurst Resi Loans UK 173
Intesa Sanpaolo Proejct Rosemary CRE Loans Romania 287
RBS Junction One & The Outlet REOs UK 81
RBS Project Detroit CRE Loans UK 810
NAMA Cashel Shopping Centre REOs Ireland 7
Banco Sabadell Project Empire REOs Spain 600
GE Capital Project Zagato Resi Loans Spain 600
EAA Project Botticelli CRE Loans Italy 350
cushmanwakefield.com
Cushman & Wakefield Copyright 2015. NO WARRANTY OR
REPRESENTATION, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS MADE TO THE
ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION
CONTAINED HEREIN, AND SAME IS SUBMITTED SUBJECT
TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, CHANGE OF PRICE, RENTAL OR
OTHER CONDITIONS, WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT NOTICE, AND
TO ANY SPECIAL LISTING CONDITIONS IMPOSED BY THE
PROPERTY OWNER(S). AS APPLICABLE, WE MAKE NO
REPRESENTATION AS TO THE CONDITION OF THE
PROPERTY (OR PROPERTIES) IN QUESTION.
Federico Montero
Partner, Head of Loan Sales
EMEA Corporate Finance
+44 (0) 20 7152 5369
federico.montero@cushwake.com
Luka Jevnikar
Associate
EMEA Corporate Finance
+44 (0) 20 7152 5994
luka.jevnikar@cushwake.com
Siôn Owen
Senior Analyst
EMEA Corporate Finance
+44 (0) 20 7152 5204
sion.owen@cushwake.com
James Webster
Analyst
EMEA Corporate Finance
+44 (0) 20 7152 5337
james.webster@cushwake.com
Kuran Aujla
Analyst
EMEA Corporate Finance
+44 (0) 20 7152 5969
kuran.aujla@cushwake.com
For more information about Cushman & Wakefield Corporate
Finance Loan Sales, contact:

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European RE Loan & REO Sales Market Q4 2015_Amended 26 Jan 2016

  • 1. C&W Corporate Finance EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE LOAN SALES MARKET Q4 2015 A C&W Corporate Finance Publication EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE LOAN SALES HEAT MAP 2016 Following a record €85.9bn of closed sales in 2015, C&W Corporate Finance provides a detailed outlook of the year ahead • C&W Corporate Finance recorded €85.9bn of closed European real estate loan (RE loan) and real estate owned (REO) sales in 2015, surpassing the previous high of €82.1bn in 2014. • Q4 2015 was the busiest quarter ever recorded with over €39.4bn of transactions closing, driven by UKAR’s Granite Portfolio and NAMA’s Project Arrow. • The UK and Ireland once again led the way, together accounting for 71% of all sales. Spanish sales dropped by 41% whilst Italian sales increased 12.5 times. • Asset management agencies (AMA) related to 38% of the total volume transacted in 2015, with UKAR and NAMA alone accounting for €30.5bn of sales. • US Capital continued to flood into Europe, with Cerberus topping the investor league table having purchased €28.1bn of European RE loans and REOs in 2015. • C&W Corporate Finance’s “heat map” has identified the UK, Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands and Italy as markets predicted to have high levels of activity in 2016. • As the fourth busiest market in 2015 and more banks readying portfolios for sale, Italy is tipped to see significant growth in sales volumes in 2016. • With €77.6bn of live and planned sales currently being tracked, C&W Corporate Finance estimates that the 2016 closed transaction volume will be in the region of €70-80bn.
  • 2. 2 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market CLOSED TRANSACTIONS 2015 VOLUMES New record set as closed European RE Loan and REO sales volume surges past €85.9bn in 2015 Following a flurry of activity in Q4, C&W Corporate Finance estimates that a total of €85.9bn of RE loan and REO transactions completed throughout 2015. With many key vendors completing their deleveraging plans, the total for 2015 surpassed the previous high of €82.1bn recorded in 2014. Despite volumes in the first nine months of the year trailing those observed in 2014, the total for 2015 was substantially boosted by a handful of very large deals in the UK and Ireland towards the year end. In fact, over €39.4bn of transactions closed in Q4 alone, representing 46% of the annual total and the most ever transacted in a single quarter. KEY TRANSACTIONS Record 2015 closed volume built on “Granite” The final quarter of 2015 saw both UKAR and NAMA complete the sales of their respective c. €17.8bn Granite Portfolio and c. €6.3bn Project Arrow, filling the gap in the market left by the likes of IBRC, Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) and RBS who took centre stage in 2014. Looking to repay a Government bailout loan, UKAR sold a portfolio of former Northern Rock mortgages to Cerberus, who themselves had an agreement with TSB Bank for the transfer of a c. €4.5bn portion of better performing loans. Having been purchased by Banco Sabadell earlier in 2015, this was a leading example of how international banks are increasingly looking to use the UK loan sales market to rapidly grow their lending books. Concurrently, Cerberus also purchased Project Arrow, NAMA’s largest ever sale. This alone accounted for c. 26% of the Irish closed volume and highlights the AMA’s key role in the loan sales market. c. €85.9bn of closed transactions during 2015 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 #ofSales ClosedVolume(€bn) Closed Volume (OPB) # of Sales EUROPEAN RE LOAN & REO CLOSED TRANSACTIONS 2012 – 2015 (OPB - €BN) Source: C&W Corporate Finance 0 5 10 15 20 25 UK Ireland Spain Italy Germany Other Europe ClosedVolume(OPB-€bn) Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 QUARTERLY EUROPEAN RE LOAN & REO CLOSED TRANSACTIONS (OPB - €BN) Source: C&W Corporate Finance
  • 3. 3 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market TYPE & SIZE More residential backed portfolios coming to the market The UKAR sale highlights how the collateral type has changed over the past year. Whilst 2014 was dominated by “mega-deals” (sales with a face value greater than €1bn) secured mainly by commercial real estate (CRE) with an element of residential, 2015 has seen large residential loan portfolios take the headlines. Additionally, residential loan sales accounted for 38% of the total volume in 2015 compared to 18% in 2014. This is unsurprising given that the recovery in residential assets tends to lag that of CRE, and indicates a trend which is likely to follow across Europe in future years. Compared to Q4 2014 where €24.0bn of RE loans and REOs changed hands across 47 transactions, only 28 deals completed in Q4 2015. Furthermore, with 15 “mega-deals” closing in 2015 compared to 16 in 2014, the average sales volume has increased by 6% YOY to c. €627m. Overall, it has become apparent in 2015 that more vendors are now disposing of their non-core assets in a small number of large transactions to maximise proceeds while economising costs and time. GEOGRAPHY 71% of 2015 transactions relate to the UK and Ireland Due to a busy Q4, the UK once again leads the way accounting for 43% of all sales with Ireland maintaining 2014 activity levels with c. €23.7bn closing in 2015. In contrast, Spain saw a 41% drop in activity compared to 2014; meanwhile Italian sales increased 12.5 times to c. €5.0bn. “Although the UK and Ireland have again topped the sales volumes in 2015, there has been a real shift in the product vendors are offering. Supported by growth in the underlying residential market, large mortgage portfolios have dominated the headlines.” Federico Montero Partner, Head of Loan Sales EMEA Corporate Finance Source: C&W Corporate Finance 36,854 23,746 3,314 130 2,408 9,536 910 4,992 2,200 1,633 156 59 Ireland UK Spain Germany Netherlands Italy Romania Portugal Pan-European Belgium Slovenia France CLOSED SALES BY GEOGRAPHY 2015 (OPB - €M) 43% 27% 11% 6% 4% 9% UK Ireland Spain Italy Germany Other Europe 69% 18% 1% 12% 55%38% 0.3% 7% CRE Loans Resi Loans Corporate Loans SME REOs TYPE OF CLOSED SALES Source: C&W Corporate Finance 2014 2015
  • 4. 4 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market KEY VENDORS Granite Portfolio makes UKAR top seller Due to the aforementioned €17.8bn Granite Portfolio, UKAR was the largest vendor of European RE loans in 2015 accounting for c. 21% of the total annual sales volume. With c. €49bn of gross non- core real estate (NCRE) assets remaining, the AMA is expected to be active in 2016 and is reportedly planning the sale of c. £17bn of Bradford & Bingley (B&B) loans. NAMA’s book going in the right direction after “Arrow” Across the Irish Sea, NAMA also had a busy year closing c. €12.7bn of RE loan and REO sales representing an increase of 25% on volumes recorded in 2014. In contrast to UKAR, this total was across 26 transactions making the agency the most active vendor of the year based on the number of deals completed. The most notable of NAMA’s deals was the €6.3bn Irish Project Arrow acquired by Cerberus, the entity’s largest deal to date as it looks to redeem at least 80% of its senior debt by the end of 2016. Since the underlying Irish real estate markets have continued to improve, the agency has also increased the number of land and hotel REOs coming to market. In a bid to maximise its portfolio’s value, NAMA has recently announced that it will enter the next phase of its programme and begin to look for development partners, a tactic also adopted by its Spanish counterpart SAREB. RBS “Clear”s up legacy Irish Ulster Bank portfolio Although it was previously believed that Project Finn was RBS’s final sale of Ulster Bank loans, December saw the financial institution close the sale of Project Clear, a c. €2bn portfolio secured against 1,850 acres of zoned land. The successful parties of Cairn Homes and Lone Star will now look to build approximately 20,000 houses and apartments amid an improving residential market. Despite currently marketing the £600m Project Detroit of mainly UK granular performing loans, RBS will likely take a back seat in 2016 as it completes the run down of its internal bad bank, Capital Resolution. AMA closed €32.5bn of sales in 2015 Given the activity of both NAMA and UKAR, it is unsurprising that AMA accounted for 38% of the total volume of European RE loans and REOs transacted in 2015. The importance of these two entities is further highlighted by the fact that AMA related to 51% of all sales in the UK and Ireland. However, just €1.9bn of the annual total corresponds to the remaining European AMA. Looking ahead to 2016, it can be expected that these agencies will play a more significant role in the market. FMS is reportedly selling the German €230m Project Samba and has further portfolios lined up, whilst the Dutch government has recently announced that it will look to privatise Propertize which still has c. €5.5bn of NCRE exposure. Despite holding a relatively small volume of soured loans, the recent setup of an Italian AMA appears to be a first step in the resolution of a wider problem in Italy. TOP 10 VENDORS 2015 VENDOR CLOSED SALES (OPB - €M) # 1 UKAR 17,847 1 2 NAMA 12,702* 26* 3 RBS 8,090* 13* 4 GE Capital 6,547 3 5 Permanent TSB 5,481 4 6 LBG 3,711 2 7 Aviva 3,645 1 8 UniCredit 3,135 5 9 Commerzbank 2,952 2 10 CaixaBank 2,480 3 UKAR and NAMA together account for over 36% of all transactions in 2015 Source: C&W Corporate Finance* Note: Includes transactions with other vendors VENDORS OF CLOSED SALES 2015 Source: C&W Corporate Finance 21% 15% 9% 8% 6% 41% UKAR NAMA RBS GE Capital Permanent TSB Remaining Vendors
  • 5. 5 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market INVESTOR LEAGUE TABLE 2015 Cerberus retains position at the top of C&W Corporate Finance’s Investor League Table, purchasing over €28bn of European RE loans and REOs in 2015 Following on from its successes in 2014, Cerberus once again finished the year at the top of the Investor League Table having acquired c. €28.1bn of RE loans and REOs across Europe. This represented a staggering 59% increase on the volume the entity purchased in 2014, which in itself set a record. Of course, this was significantly bolstered by its procurement of UKAR’s Project Granite which alone accounted for c. 48% of its total. Whilst the top 5 spots in 2014 were fiercely competed for, it was significantly noticeable how far ahead Cerberus was from any other entity in terms of the face value of loans acquired in 2015. Holding on to second place, Lone Star remained highly active throughout Europe over the past year. The key transaction for the US private equity firm was the €3.6bn Project Churchill sold by Aviva, of which c. €200m has subsequently been acquired by Tristan Capital in a process known as Project Randolph. Making up the remainder of the top five spots are the consortium of Blackstone, CarVal and TPG which completed the acquisition of €3.8bn of GE Capital UK mortgages, TSB Bank with its share of Project Granite, and Deutsche Bank with its purchase of €1.2bn of Erste Group loans. INVESTOR 2015 2014 KEY PROJECTS VOLUME (€M) # POSITION 1 Cerberus 28,110 11 1 • Project Arrow - €6.3bn • Granite Portfolio - €13.4bn 2 Lone Star 5,778 5 2 • Project Parrot NPLs - €0.7bn • Project Churchill - €3.6bn 3 Blackstone / CarVal / TPG * 5,130 1 N/A • GE Capital Mortgages - €5.1bn 4 TSB Bank 4,455 1 N/A • UKAR Northern Rock Mortgages - €4.5bn 5 Deutsche Bank 3,749 6 6 • Project Maeve – €0.8bn • Banca Comerciala Romana Loans – €1.2bn 6 Oaktree Capital 3,697 6 7 • Project Gaudi - €0.6bn • Project Wind - €1.1bn 7 CarVal / Goldman Sachs * 3,500 1 4 • Project Poseidon - €3.5bn 8 Apollo / Deutsche Bank * 3,035 3 N/A • Project Leinster - €1.0bn • Project Finn CRE Loan Tranche - €1.5bn 9 Allianz / Hammerson 2,570 1 N/A • Project Jewel - €2.6bn 10 Sankaty 2,125 4 N/A • Project Commander - €0.6bn • Project Chloe - €0.8bn Cerberus and Lone Star take top two spots as US capital continues to dominate INVESTOR LEAGUE TABLE 2015 * Note: Total volume excludes transactions completed individually by each entity Source: C&W Corporate Finance 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Cerberus Lone Star Blackstone / CarVal / TPG * TSB Bank Deutsche Bank ClosedVolume(OPB-€bn) 2014 2015 TOP 5 RE LOAN & REO BUYERS 2015 (OPB - €BN) Source: C&W Corporate Finance* Note: Volume excludes transactions completed individually by each entity
  • 6. 6 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market EUROPEAN RE LOAN SALES HEAT MAP Following extensive research, C&W Corporate Finance has developed a “European RE Loan Sales Heat Map” with the aim of providing an overview of how it foresees the market developing in 2016 and beyond Based on an understanding of remaining NCRE exposure and knowledge of activity to date, a forecast of 2016 sales volumes has been estimated for each of the key European real estate loan sales markets. Please note, that those countries shaded in grey have not been analysed as they are either viewed as being relatively inactive or lack market transparency. The following pages provides a summary of a detailed analysis of each of the markets shown on the map including a review of market to date, the remaining NCRE exposure, and which entities are likely to be key future vendors. PORTUGAL Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f) NCRE exposure €11.0bn AMA NCRE exposure €2.8bn # Banks / AMAs with NCE 3 / 1 Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012 €0.1bn 2013 - 2014 - 2015 €0.9bn Total €1.0bn Live Sales - Planned Sales - IRELAND Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f) NCRE exposure €34.1bn AMA NCRE exposure €12.9bn # Banks / AMAs with NCE 4 / 1 Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012 €4.5bn 2013 €4.6bn 2014 €22.6bn 2015 €23.7bn Total €55.5bn Live Sales €0.6bn Planned Sales €6.7bn SPAIN Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f) NCRE exposure €201.4bn AMA NCRE exposure €87.2bn # Banks / AMAs with NCE 11 / 2 Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012 €6.2bn 2013 €4.5bn 2014 €16.3bn 2015 €9.5bn Total €36.6bn Live Sales €9.4bn Planned Sales €0.1bn UK Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f) NCRE exposure €84.5bn AMA NCRE exposure €51.0bn # Banks / AMAs with NCE 10 / 4 Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012 €6.7bn 2013 €10.9bn 2014 €31.2bn 2015 €36.9bn Total €85.6bn Live Sales €2.1bn Planned Sales €38.0bn 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ClosedVolume(€bn) Closed Volume 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ClosedVolume(€bn) Closed Volume 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ClosedVolume(€bn) Closed Volume 0 5 10 15 20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ClosedVolume(€bn) Closed Volume
  • 7. 7 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market AUSTRIA & CEE Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f) NCRE exposure N/A* AMA NCRE exposure €10.3bn # Banks / AMAs with NCE N/A* / 4 Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012 - 2013 €0.2bn 2014 €1.2bn 2015 €4.0bn Total €5.3bn Live Sales €0.6bn Planned Sales - * Note: C&W has not estimated the total NCRE exposure of Austria & CEE due to a lack of market transparency GERMANY Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f) NCRE exposure €13.7bn AMA NCRE exposure €3.4bn # Banks / AMAs with NCE 7 / 1 Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012 €5.1bn 2013 €8.2bn 2014 €4.6bn 2015 €3.3bn Total €21.2bn Live Sales €2.3bn Planned Sales €2.5bn NETHERLANDS Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f) NCRE exposure €15.9bn AMA NCRE exposure €4.7bn # Banks / AMAs with NCE 5 / 2 Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012 €0.6bn 2013 €1.5bn 2014 €1.5bn 2015 €2.4bn Total €6.0bn Live Sales €0.6bn Planned Sales €6.1bn ITALY Overview Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012-2016(f) NCRE exposure €66.4bn AMA NCRE exposure €1.1bn # Banks / AMAs with NCE 6 / 2 Closed RE Loan & REO Sales 2012 - 2013 - 2014 €0.4bn 2015 €5.0bn Total €5.4bn Live Sales €0.7bn Planned Sales €5.0bn 2016 FORECASTED SALES VOLUME KEY = N/A = >€20bn = €15-20bn = €10-15bn = €5-10bn = <€5bn0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ClosedVolume(€bn) Closed Volume 0 2 4 6 8 10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ClosedVolume(€bn) Closed Volume 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ClosedVolume(€bn) Closed Volume 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ClosedVolume(€bn) Closed Volume
  • 8. 8 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market Top Vendors 2012-2015 Top Buyers 2012-2015 NCRE Holders 2016 1 NAMA €16.6bn Cerberus €11.2bn NAMA 38% 2 RBS €11.8bn CarVal / GS1 €9.0bn AIB 34% 3 IBRC €10.7bn Lone Star €5.9bn Bank of Ireland 20% 4 LBG €10.3bn Apollo / DB1 €3.0bn Danske Bank 8% 5 Permanent TSB €2.5bn Apollo €2.6bn Permanent TSB 1% Top Vendors 2012-2015 Top Buyers 2012-2015 NCRE Holders 2016 1 UKAR €21.8bn Cerberus €31.4bn UKAR 58% 2 IBRC €8.0bn Lone Star €12.3bn Co-operative 14% 3 NAMA €7.9bn Blackstone / CarVal / TPG1 €5.1bn Nationwide 7% 4 LBG €7.1bn TSB Bank €4.5bn Permanent TSB 4% 5 RBS €6.6bn CarVal2 €3.4bn Bank of Ireland 4% 6.7 10.9 31.2 36.9 15 20 41 28 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 2012 2013 2014 2015 #ofsales Volume(OPB-€bn) Closed Volume # of sales UK - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn) IRELAND Activity peaked in 2015 Like the UK, Ireland has been a key target for opportunistic US investors and loan sales activity has increased substantially since 2012. With over €23.7bn of closed sales, 2015 was the most active year ever recorded and was boosted by NAMA’s €6.3bn Project Arrow as well as LBG’s €3.7bn Project Poseidon which marked its final sale of Irish non-core assets. Whilst IBRC, LBG and RBS have now completed their deleveraging, NAMA still has c. €38bn of gross NCRE of which a third is estimated will be subject to loan sale processes. Other potential key vendors with exposure include Allied Irish Bank and Bank of Ireland, the former of which is rumoured to be mulling an imminent sale. NAMA to continue as key vendor in 2016 2016 will likely be the last significant year for Ireland, albeit volumes are unlikely to reach those seen in 2014 and 2015. NAMA will look to complete its sales plan and thereafter the market can be expected to quieten as stock levels diminish. Activity will be supported by strong investor demand on the back of further expected compression of prime real estate yields throughout Ireland. (*) Notes: 1. Volumes exclude transactions completed individually by each entity 2. Total for CarVal excludes a c. €740m deal completed in partnership with Goldman Sachs 4.5 4.6 22.6 23.7 7 18 43 37 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 2012 2013 2014 2015 #ofsales Volume(OPB-€bn) Closed Volume # of sales Ireland - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn) UK Over €36.9bn closed in 2015 The UK has led activity from 2012, with the likes of LBG and RBS quick to realise their non-core assets and set up internal “bad banks”. 2015 saw a record €36.9bn of RE loans and REOs change hands, more than the €31.3bn sold across all of Europe in 2013. However, this total was magnified by UKAR’s €17.8bn sale and the number of sales is a better indication of the future direction of the market. 28 transactions closed in 2015 compared to 41 in 2014, signalling that supply is becoming more lumpy and will begin to reduce going forward. 2016 to be busy but limited supply of future vendors Apart from UKAR which has announced plans to explore the sale of c. £17bn of B&B mortgages, the UK has limited supply. Notable holders include the Co-operative Group which is gauging investor appetite for its €6.6bn Optimum Portfolio, and Permanent TSB which delayed the sale of its remaining Capital Home Loans due to market congestion. The type of product on offer is also changing, with more residential rather than CRE loans coming to market. With the quality of loans increasing, several performing portfolios have recently traded including Coventry Building Society’s sale of a c. €419m portfolio to TwentyFour Asset Management. This trend is anticipated to continue and will attract a different type of buyer to the usual US private equity firms.
  • 9. 9 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market GERMANY Germany opted for different approach to UK Compared to the UK and Ireland, the German RE loan sales market has seen relatively low levels of activity. In fact, levels have been decreasing since its high of €8.2bn in 2013, and just €3.3bn of sales were recorded in 2015. Eager to avoid the large write-downs crystallised upon selling non-performing loan (NPL) portfolios and supported by low funding costs, German financial institutions have held their NCRE exposure with the view that the underlying real estate will rebound. As a result, the main vendors to date have been international rather than German banks such as RBS, Barclays and LBG. Investor interest remains high but stock limited Looking at the remaining NCRE exposure, the main holder is Commerzbank which includes the assets held by Hypothekenbank Frankfurt. Having completed sales of non-core assets throughout Europe, the group is likely to turn its attention to its remaining German exposure over the coming years. FMS Wertmanagement is also likely to follow suit and is reportedly preparing its residual exposure for sale in addition to the currently marketed €230m Project Samba. In conclusion, the size of the German NPL market is limited, although those who do decide to sell will benefit from robust investor appetite. NETHERLANDS Growing activity expected to continue With several Dutch banks springing into action, 2015 saw c. €2.4bn of closed sales representing an increase of 66% YOY. Since the Netherlands is behind the UK, Ireland and Spain on the loan sales curve, activity can be expected to increase further. Transactions to date have had an average size of c. €238m, allowing a wealth of investors to participate in sales processes. Combined with the fact that significant improvements are anticipated in the Dutch real estate market, investor appetite will remain high over the upcoming years. The holders of NCRE exposure such as Rabobank and ING will be hoping that this forecast holds true, and will be eager to take advantage. “Swan” comes to surface The main headlines in 2016 will undoubtedly be grabbed by the sale of Propertize and its associated €5.5bn loan portfolio, dubbed Project Swan. Given that the Dutch portion of this portfolio alone accounts for c. 27% of the total NCRE exposure of the Netherlands, it is apparent that the future market will never be as large as other European countries. Nevertheless, the sale will attract attention from all the big players and could potentially lead to a string of subsequent secondary sales. Top Vendors 2012-2015 Top Buyers 2012-2015 NCRE Holders 2016 1 Staalbankiers €1.2bn Achmea €1.1bn Rabobank 37% 2 Morgan Stanley €1.1bn Fortress €1.1bn Propertize 27% 3 FGH Bank €1.1bn Kildare €0.7bn ING 26% 4 GE €0.5bn TPG / Patron €0.7bn ABN AMRO 4% 5 Propertize €0.4bn Venn Partners €0.5bn Van Lanschot 3% Top Vendors 2012-2015 Top Buyers 2012-2015 NCRE Holders 2016 1 Lone Star €3.7bn Aareal Bank €3.6bn Commerzbank 53% 2 RBS €1.9bn Lone Star €3.5bn FMS 25% 3 Bundesbank €1.8bn Cerberus €1.8bn Landesbank BW 6% 4 Barclays €1.6bn Oaktree €1.6bn ING 5% 5 LBG €1.6bn Kildare €1.6bn Deutsche Bank 5% 5.1 8.2 4.6 3.3 11 14 10 11 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 2012 2013 2014 2015 #ofsales Volume(OPB-€bn) Closed Volume # of sales Germany - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn) 0.6 1.5 1.5 2.4 1 7 7 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 #ofsales Volume(OPB-€bn) Closed Volume # of sales Netherlands - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn)
  • 10. 10 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market PORTUGAL REO transactions boost Portuguese total Due to several foreclosed asset sales, 2015 was the busiest year to date for the Portuguese RE loan and REO market with just under €1bn of closed transactions. In addition, many of the large Spanish transactions will contain Portuguese elements which will not be captured within the above volume. However, the total also emphasises that Portugal has limited stock. Portugal to benefit from interest in Spain Nonetheless, Portugal has around €11.0bn of NCRE which is not far short of that estimated for Germany. Of this total, it is estimated that 89% is held by Portuguese financial entities including Millennium BCP and CGD, with the remaining 11% held by Commerzbank Group which has been active in Iberia over the past three years. Although not entirely transparent, it is estimated that Novo Banco holds approximately €2.9bn of NCRE assets based on the former balance sheets of the Espirito Santo Financial Group. With investor interest “spilling over” from its neighbour Spain, there is a strong possibility that this exposure will come to the market at some stage over the next few years. SPAIN Closed volumes experience slight dip in 2015 Contrary to expectations, Spain saw a 41% drop in the level of completed transactions in 2015 with c. €9.5bn closing. However, C&W Corporate Finance is currently tracking approximately €9.4bn of live sales including Bankia’s €4.2bn Big Bang REO portfolio highlighting that activity is still ongoing. One notable trend witnessed in 2015 which explains the above decrease was the number of defaulted sales, with a common reason being that bids did not meet vendor expectations. Many entities will continue to hold assets awaiting further improvements within the real estate markets and until they consider that they are minimising portfolio write-downs. Increasing number of Spanish vendors With over €200bn of NCRE exposure, the Spanish RE loan sales market has a few years to go. Although SAREB holds 43% of this total, 2015 saw an increase in the number of new vendors bringing portfolios to the market. Many of these portfolios were relatively small as banks were “testing the water”, but it can be anticipated that larger sales will follow in the upcoming year from the likes of Caixabank and BBVA. As proven by the highly competitive processes and resulting number of underbidders seen to date, investor interest in Spain can be expected to remain high. Top Vendors 2012-2015 Top Buyers 2012-2015 NCRE Holders 2016 1 Catalunya Banc €0.5bn Lone Star €0.5bn Millennium BCP 46% 2 CGD €0.3bn Sheikh Al Jaber €0.3bn Novo Banco 26% 3 Banco Montepio €0.1bn Och-Ziff €0.1bn CGD 17% 4 Finangeste €0.1bn HIG €0.1bn Commerzbank 11% Top Vendors 2012-2015 Top Buyers 2012-2015 NCRE Holders 2016 1 Catalunya Banc €6.4bn Blackstone €7.7bn SAREB 43% 2 Hypothekenbank €5.0bn Lone Star €4.3bn CaixaBank 14% 3 Bankia €4.3bn BAML €3.3bn Banco Popular 12% 4 Santander €3.6bn Oaktree €2.6bn BBVA 12% 5 SAREB €3.5bn JP Morgan €2.2bn Santander 7% 6.2 4.5 16.3 9.5 8 26 27 29 0 10 20 30 40 0 5 10 15 20 2012 2013 2014 2015 #ofsales Volume(OPB-€bn) Closed Volume # of sales Spain - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn) 0.1 0.9 1 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 #ofsales Volume(OPB-€bn) Closed Volumes # of sales Portugal - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn)
  • 11. 11 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market Top Vendors 2012-2015 Top Buyers 2012-2015 NCRE Holders 20162 1 Commerzbank €2.2bn Deutsche Bank €1.6bn HETA 59% 2 Erste Group €1.6bn JP Morgan €1.5bn MARK 22% 3 Volksbank €1.0bn Lone Star €0.7bn DUTB 15% 4 IBRC €0.3bn AnaCap / Deutsche Bank / HIG1 €0.5bn KA Finanz 4% 5 DUTB / Bawag €0.2bn CA Immo €0.4bn Top Vendors 2012-2015 Top Buyers 2012-2015 NCRE Holders 2016 1 UniCredit €3.5bn Fortress / Eurocastle1 €1.2bn UniCredit 45% 2 Citigroup €0.4bn PIMCO / GWM1 €1.2bn Intesa Sanpaolo 30% 3 Sofigeco €0.4bn Cerberus €0.8bn UBI Banca 13% 4 Popolare di Bari €0.4bn PVE Capital €0.6bn Banco Popolare 8% 5 RBS €0.2bn TPG €0.4bn Commerzbank 1% ITALY Italy 4th busiest market in 2015 Following a flurry of unsecured loan sales throughout 2013 and 2014, the Italian secured NPL market picked up in 2015. Approximately €5.0bn of RE loan and REO sales transacted throughout the year, supported by several sales from UniCredit which has become increasingly active. The fact that the closed sales volume has grown 12.5 times YOY summarises how Italy is gradually becoming a key market. Just the start for Italy As the main holders of NCRE exposure, both UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo will look to step up their activity levels going forward. In addition, several international financial entities are keen to dispose of their Italian exposures, including Commerzbank, FMS and EAA. The latter is currently marketing the €350m Project Botticelli, which is secured by Italian residential and industrial assets. After months of speculation, Italy finally established a national AMA. Despite currently only holding c. €750m of real estate related NPLs, the National Resolution Fund can be expected to inherit further soured loans in the next 24 months. Following the success of other European AMA such as NAMA, the Italians have a good illustration of how best to maximise recoveries. With reforms to enforcement legislation now in place, the Italian market is set to grow further over the upcoming years. AUSTRIA & CEE Closed sales volume more than tripled in 2015 Like Italy, Austria and CEE has started to catch the eyes of investors over the past 18 months and consequently its sales volume has grown by 229% YOY to c. €4.0bn. The most significant sale of the year was Project Parrot, Commerzbank’s €2.2bn loan portfolio secured by assets throughout Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Further opportunities to come from CEE AMA Despite this growth, several sales have fallen through due to legal complications, bids not reaching vendor expectations, or a lack portfolio information. The most recent example is Erste Group’s €3.6bn Project Neptune which was reportedly pulled after Lone Star’s binding bid fell short of the vendor’s threshold. Not only does this provide evidence that opportunities in CEE have more complexities than in other European regions, but also indicates that some buyers may be reluctant to participate in future processes. Although the NCRE exposure for Austria and CEE has not been estimated, the region has four AMA which will become more active going forward. Nevertheless, activity is unlikely to reach the levels seen in the UK, Ireland and Spain. 0.4 5.0 3 16 0 4 8 12 16 0 2 4 6 8 2012 2013 2014 2015 #ofsales Volume(OPB-€bn) Closed Volume # of sales Italy - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn) 0.1 1.2 4.0 1 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 2012 2013 2014 2015 #ofsales Volume(OPB-€bn) Closed Volume # of sales Austria & CEE - RE Loan & REO Transactions (OPB - €bn) (*) Notes: 1. Volumes exclude transactions completed individually by each entity 2. C&W has not estimated the total NCRE exposure of Austria & CEE due to a lack of market transparency. The percentages provided are therefore of the total NCRE exposure of the four AMA listed
  • 12. 12 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market LIVE & PLANNED TRANSACTIONS LIVE TRANSACTIONS €16.3bn of live sales being tracked C&W Corporate Finance is currently tracking €16.3bn of live transactions, a figure not too dissimilar to the €21.7bn being followed at the end of 2014. Unsurprisingly, this amount is way below the €54.0bn of live sales as at the end of Q3 2015, highlighting the extent of the activity witnessed in the final quarter of the year. Spain accounts for 58% of live sales With activity in the UK and Ireland having peaked and now on the downward slope of the loan sales cycle, it is no surprise that Spain accounts for 58% of the current live total with €9.4bn of sales on the market. Despite reports that SAREB will remain relatively dormant over the upcoming year hindered by changes to Spanish accounting rules, there has been an increase in the number of Spanish lending entities bringing loan portfolios to the market. Having delayed its sale of the €4.2bn Project Big Bang, Bankia will look to close out the transaction at some point in 2016. Elsewhere in Europe, RBS will shortly look to finish its UK deleveraging through the €810m Project Detroit and as predicted, activity is steadily increasing in Italy with C&W Corporate Finance currently tracking two live sales as well as a healthy pipeline of planned transactions. PLANNED TRANSACTIONS Pipeline of €61.3bn of planned disposals The start of 2016 will be supported by a substantial pipeline of planned transactions which C&W Corporate Finance estimates has a face value of c. €61.3bn. The UK currently accounts for 62% of this figure given that UKAR, the Co- operative Group and Permanent TSB are all waiting for the most opportune moment to launch their respective UK mortgage portfolios. Making up a further 11% is Ireland, with the ever-active NAMA looking to bring c. €6bn of RE loans to the market in the form of Projects Emerald and Ruby. As discussed, Allied Irish Bank is also rumoured to be preparing a portfolio for market which will help boost Irish sales volumes this year. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that activity in 2016 will reach the levels witnessed over the past two years. Investors awaiting Dutch and Italian portfolios Unsurprisingly, 10% of planned sales relate to the Netherlands due to Propertize’s plan to dispose of Project Swan. Competition for the portfolio will be high as investors look to gain an unprecedented exposure to the Netherlands, a market where opportunities of this size will be very few and far between. Following the success of a string of unsecured loan portfolios, Italy as the third largest holder of NCRE represents 8% of the planned transactions for 2016. Currently tracking €77.6bn of live and planned sales PLANNED TRANSACTIONS BY COUNTRY 62% 11% 10% 8% 4% 5% UK Ireland Netherlands Italy Germany Other Europe Source: C&W Corporate Finance 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 Spain Germany UK Italy Other Europe #ofSales LiveVolume(OPB-€bn) Live Volume # of Sales Source: C&W Corporate Finance LIVE TRANSACTIONS BY COUNTRY (€BN)
  • 13. 13 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market 2016 KEY CONSIDERATIONS Given the ever-changing nature of the European RE loan and REO sales market, C&W Corporate Finance has outlined several key considerations and trends expected in 2016 • Loan-on-loan financing: Following a period of very aggressive financing, recent evidence shows that the trends in both LTVs and margins are now reversing as lenders’ terms become more and more dependent on the free cash flow available. As a result, there may be an opportunity for other players, such as private equity firms, to enter the loan-on-loan market and fill the space left by withdrawing lenders. • Servicing platforms: Following a string of investors purchasing Spanish servicing platforms in 2013 and 2014, last year marked the beginning of a period of consolidation and secondary sales. Whilst several sales will have been triggered by the failure to gain SAREB contracts for the management of its loan and real estate portfolios, others are simply looking to exit the market. A prime example is Centerbridge’s sale of Aktua which it purchased in 2012 from Banesto. In comparison, there is growing investor interest for Italian servicing platforms ahead of an anticipated increase in activity. • New asset management agencies: As discussed, 2015 saw new AMA established in both Italy and Hungary. The Italian National Resolution Fund inherited an estimated €750m of real estate related loans whilst MARK has yet to receive any soured loans. It is therefore likely that both of these entities can be expected to use 2016 to formulate exit strategies rather than be leading sellers. • Secondary sales: Given the high levels of activity since 2012 and the typical workout plans assumed by investors, it can be expected that further secondary loan and foreclosed asset sales will come to the market in 2016. 2015 saw several secondary loan sales transact, the most recent being Lone Star’s disposal of c. €200m of loans from Aviva’s Project Churchill. EXPECTATIONS FOR 2016 C&W Corporate Finance anticipates €70-80bn of transactions in 2016 • UKAR’s sale of c. £17bn of B&B mortgages will be the largest sale to date if the entity goes ahead with its plans. • NAMA will likely be the key seller in Ireland, further reducing its remaining portfolio through Projects Emerald and Ruby. • Elsewhere in Europe, AMA such as FMS Wertmanagement and Propertize can be expected to be active. • With an increasing number of vendors and over €200bn of NCRE, Spain is anticipated to be one of the leading markets in 2016. Furthermore, driven by increasing investor interest and a recovering real estate market, Italian lenders will bring more to the market over the upcoming year. • Given the level of live and planned sales currently being tracked, C&W Corporate Finance estimates that the 2016 closed transaction volume will be in the region of €70-80bn. 2016 RE loan and REO sales forecasted to be in the region of €70-80bn 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Volume(OPB-€bn) Closed Live Planned Source: C&W Corporate Finance FORECASTED CLOSED SALES 2016 (OPB - €BN) Forecast Range (€70-80bn)
  • 14. 14 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market CLOSED RE LOAN & REO TRANSACTIONS 2015 Over €85.9bn of closed transactions Source: C&W Corporate Finance DATE VENDOR PROJECT TYPE COUNTRY BUYER FACE VALUE €M Jan-15 Banco Sabadell Project Triton CRE Loans Spain Deutsche Bank 435 Jan-15 Bank of Ireland Project Lagan 1 REOs UK Ability Group 20 Jan-15 Bank of Ireland Project Lagan 2 REOs UK Deka 60 Jan-15 Bank of Ireland Project Lagan 3 REOs UK DTZ Investors 54 Jan-15 BPER Sardaleasing 45 Italian properties REOs Italy Beni Stabili 30 Jan-15 Erste Group Project Saturn CRE Loans Romania Deutsche Bank 433 Jan-15 FGH Bank / HSH Nordbank Dutch office loan CRE Loans Netherlands Goldman Sachs 109 Jan-15 Fortress Cannon Bridge House Junior Loan CRE Loans UK Blackstone 36 Jan-15 Goldman Sachs Project Wagner CRE Loans Germany Otto Group 650 Jan-15 Iccrea BancaImpresa Industrial & Logistics REOs REOs Italy Beni Stabili 40 Jan-15 Llave de Oro Project Oro REOs Spain Goldman Sachs 90 Jan-15 Nationwide Marble Portfolio REOs UK Goldman Sachs 149 Jan-15 SAREB Project Aneto CRE Loans Spain Blackstone 237 Jan-15 SAREB Barcelona Office REOs Spain Inmobiliaria Colonial 10 Jan-15 Wells Fargo Helios Portfolio CRE Loans Germany BAML 60 Jan-15 Banca Popolare di Bari Banca Tercas & Banca Caripe NPLs CRE Loans Italy Lone Star 400 Jan-15 NAMA Project Boyne CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank 287 Jan-15 NAMA Graham Harris London properties REOs UK Starwood Capital 278 Jan-15 NAMA UK loan portfolio CRE Loans UK Invel Real Estate Partners 189 Jan-15 RBS Project Herald REOs UK Heylo Housing / LCPF / Genesis HA / Fortis Living 135 Feb-15 Permanent TSB Project Leinster CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank / Apollo 1,000 Feb-15 Permanent TSB Project Munster CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank / Apollo 500 Feb-15 IBRC Project Pearl NPLs Resi Loans Ireland Mars Capital 406 Feb-15 Cassa di Risparmio di Cesana Northern Italian RE NPLs CRE Loans Italy HIG Bayside Capital 50 Feb-15 Natixis Park Inn Hotel NPL CRE Loans UK Kennedy Wilson 128 Feb-15 SAREB Residential Land REOs Spain Castlelake 13 Feb-15 SAREB Boadilla Residential Land REOs Spain Castlelake 13 Feb-15 Staalbankiers Dutch Residential Portfolio REOs Netherlands Round Hill Capital 98 Feb-15 UniCredit UCCMB Secured loans CRE Loans Italy Fortress/Eurocastle 1,200 Feb-15 UniCredit Levia Portfolio REOs Italy Cerberus 300 Feb-15 Danske Bank Project Griffin 1 CRE Loans Ireland Bank of Ireland 274 Feb-15 Danske Bank Project Griffin 2 CRE Loans Ireland Goldman Sachs 266 Feb-15 Starwood Capital Garda HQ Dublin REOs Ireland Hibernia REIT 70 Feb-15 NAMA Tara Collection - Facebook HQ REOs Ireland DZ Bank 232 Feb-15 NAMA Tara Collection - Alexandra House REOs Ireland Irish Life 34 Feb-15 NAMA Tara Collection - One Grand Canal Parade REOs Ireland Credit Suisse 18 Feb-15 NAMA Tara Collection - Lower Leeson Street REOs Ireland Jones Engineering 11 Mar-15 Lone Star Dublin Office Pool REOs Ireland Starwood Capital 350 Mar-15 Banco Sabadell Project Cadi CRE Loans Spain PIMCO 240 Mar-15 Catalunya Banc Vilamoura REOs Portugal Lone Star 500 Mar-15 Citigroup Enel CRE loan CRE Loans Italy TPG 220 Mar-15 IBRC Meir 23, Antwerp REOs Belgium GH Group 35 Mar-15 IBRC Centre Etoile & Louise 165, Brussels REOs Belgium Ghelamco Invest 24 Mar-15 ING Group Project Ogon CRE Loans Netherlands Apollo 100 Mar-15 ING Group Dutch CRE loans CRE Loans Netherlands Apollo 50 Mar-15 Sofigeco Italian Residential NPLs Resi Loans Italy PVE Capital 408 Mar-15 Kildare Partners Le Meridien hotel - Munich REOs Germany Deka 158 Mar-15 Permanent TSB Capital Home Loans & servicing platform Resi Loans UK Cerberus 3,500 Mar-15 NAMA Plum Portfolio REOs Ireland Marathon Asset Management 116 Apr-15 BBVA Barcelona student residencies REOs Spain The Student Hotel - Apr-15 Citigroup Spanish mortgages Resi Loans Spain Apollo 371 Apr-15 Citigroup German retail mezzanine loans CRE Loans Germany BlackRock 100 Apr-15 Citigroup German retail mezzanine loans CRE Loans Germany Highbridge Principal Strategies 70 Apr-15 Co-operative Group Priory Centre, Dartford REOs UK Tristan Capital / Ellandi 45 Apr-15 GE Capital GE Capital CRE Performing Loans CRE Loans UK & Germany Blackstone 677 Apr-15 RBS MAC Property REOs Germany Och-Ziff 155 Apr-15 RBS German Mixed-use Portfolio REOs Germany Apollo 60 Apr-15 AIB Cornerstone Portfolio REOs Ireland Davidson Kempner 115 May-15 RBS Project Coney CRE Loans Ireland Sankaty 465 May-15 RBS Project Rathlin CRE Loans UK Cerberus 1,890 May-15 RBS / HSBC / Nationwide Project Spring REOs UK Varde Partners 186 May-15 RBS Risanamento office portfolio REOs Italy Goldman Sachs 80 May-15 NAMA Windsor House REOs UK Hastings Hotels 9 May-15 FMS Project Gaudi CRE Loans Spain Oaktree Capital 604 May-15 Bankia Project Commander CRE Loans Spain Sankaty 560 May-15 CGD Vale do Lobo stake REOs Portugal Sheikh Al Jaber 300 May-15 Financial Institution Pioneer Point NPL CRE Loans UK Kennedy Wilson 201 May-15 Kildare Partners Le Meridien Parkhotel - Frankfurt REOs Germany Art-Invest Real Estate 40 May-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Metropole Hotel Cork REOs Ireland Philip Hotel Holdings 5 May-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Johnstown House REOs Ireland Unknown 7 May-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Fels Point Hotel REOs Ireland Henggeler Family 4 May-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Maldron Wexford REOs Ireland Dalata 4 Jun-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Killeshin Hotel REOs Ireland Pat McDonagh 3 Jun-15 Commerzbank Project Sun CRE Loans Germany Oaktree Capital 752 Jun-15 Commerzbank Project Parrot - PLs CRE Loans Europe JP Morgan 1,467 Jun-15 Commerzbank Project Parrot - NPLs CRE Loans Europe Lone Star 733 Jun-15 Citigroup Excelsia Nove Debt CRE Loans Italy TPG 200 Jun-15 Bankia Project Castle CRE Loans Spain Davidson Kempner / BAML 383 Jun-15 Bank of China Grosvenor House Hotel Loan CRE Loans UK Reuben Brothers 412 Jun-15 SAREB Calle Velaquez Office REOs Spain Axiare Patrimonio 51 Jun-15 Propertize Dutch Office Portfolio REOs Netherlands Goldman Sachs 60 Jun-15 DUTB / Bawag Istrabenz loans CRE Loans Slovenia York Capital 156 Jul-15 LBG Project Poseidon - PLs CRE Loans Ireland Bank of Ireland 200 Jul-15 LBG Project Poseidon - NPLs CRE Loans Ireland & UK CarVal / Goldman Sachs 3,500 Jul-15 RBS Project Finn - CRE Loan Tranche CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank / Apollo 1,535 Jul-15 RBS Project Finn - Resi Loans Tranche Resi Loans Ireland Cerberus 741 Jul-15 RBS Project Finn - SMEs Tranche SME Ireland Sankaty 300 Jul-15 NAMA Project Maeve CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank 786 Jul-15 NAMA Project Arch CRE Loans Ireland Deutsche Bank 608 Jul-15 Permanent TSB Project Connacht CRE Loans Ireland CarVal 481 Jul-15 NAMA Project Albion CRE Loans UK Oaktree Capital 305 Jul-15 Rabobank / RBS Project Trinity REOs Ireland Chartered Land 170 Jul-15 Bankinter 300 Residential Units REOs Spain Elliott Managament 60 Jul-15 Banco Mare Nostrum Project Pampa Resi Loans Spain Ellington Management 160 Jul-15 Banco Mare Nostrum Project Coronas CRE Loans Spain Apollo 100 Jul-15 GE Capital Germany Offices & Loans CRE Loans Germany Kildare Partners 740 Jul-15 NAMA Harvest Portfolio REOs Ireland Avenue Capital 40 Jul-15 ING Group 26 Rios Rosas REOs Spain M&G 175 Jul-15 CaixaBank Project Tourmalet Resi Loans Spain Blackstone 800
  • 15. 15 C&W Corporate Finance JANUARY 2016 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market Source: C&W Corporate Finance LIVE RE LOAN & REO SALES Currently tracking €16.3bn of live transactions CLOSED RE LOAN & REO TRANSACTIONS 2015 (cont.) Source: C&W Corporate Finance DATE VENDOR PROJECT TYPE COUNTRY BUYER FACE VALUE €M Jul-15 Bankia Project Wind - Mast Portfolio Resi Loans Spain Oaktree Capital / Chenavari 918 Jul-15 Bankia Project Wind - Board Portfolio CRE Loans Spain Oaktree Capital 178 Jul-15 NAMA Millennium Park REOs Ireland Tetarch Capital 36 Jul-15 UniCredit Italian REOs CRE Loans Italy Cerberus 205 Jul-15 Lone Star Rivas Futura REOs Spain Credit Suisse 52 Jul-15 Staalbankiers Dutch CRE Loans CRE Loans Netherlands Achmea Bank 364 Jul-15 Staalbankiers Dutch Residential Loans Resi Loans Netherlands Achmea Bank 693 Jul-15 LBG Lough Erne Resort REOs UK Vince Avenue / Tru Hotels & Resorts 11 Aug-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – Glenroyal Hotel REOs Ireland Comer Group 11 Aug-15 IBRC Riverside One Stake REOs Ireland IPUT 81 Aug-15 FGH Bank Project River CRE Loans Netherlands Attestor Capital 250 Aug-15 Van Lanschot Project Lucas CRE Loans Netherlands Cerberus 400 Aug-15 SAREB GAL and Via Complutense Land REOs Spain Turnstone Corporate 14 Aug-15 Grupo Cooperativo Cajamar Spanish NPLs CRE Loans Spain Cerberus 400 Aug-15 Santander Four Madrid Offices REOs Spain Oaktree Capital 40 Aug-15 SAREB Two Residential Plots REOs Spain Grupo Insur - Sep-15 NAMA Crystal Collection – South Court Hotel REOs Ireland GN Asset Management 2 Sep-15 NAMA Project Jewel CRE Loans Ireland Allianz Real Estate / Hammerson 2,570 Sep-15 Bank of Ireland National Portfolio REOs Ireland Davidson Kempner 170 Sep-15 Helaba Project Aurora CRE Loans Germany Cerberus 250 Sep-15 Aviva Project Churchill CRE Loans UK Lone Star 3,645 Sep-15 Finangeste Portuguese Secured Loans CRE Loans Portugal HIG Bayside Capital 110 Sep-15 CaixaBank Project More CRE Loans Spain Cerberus 780 Sep-15 Unknown UK Residential Mortgages Resi Loans UK Metro Bank 464 Oct-15 NAMA Hazel Portfolio REOs Ireland York Capital / Clarendon Properties 115 Oct-15 Ibercaja Banco Project Goya CRE Loans Spain Oaktree Capital 900 Oct-15 UniCredit Great Beauty Portfolio REOs Italy Morgan Stanley / Poste Vita 230 Oct-15 NAMA Project Arrow CRE Loans Ireland Cerberus 6,252 Oct-15 Santander Hyde Group Social Housing Loan Resi Loans UK Legal & General 203 Nov-15 Banco Sabadell Project Chloe CRE Loans Spain Sankaty 800 Nov-15 GE Capital UK Home Lending Mortgages Resi Loans UK Blackstone / TPG / CarVal 5,130 Nov-15 Fortress Operation Coast - Secured loans Resi Loans Spain Elliott Managament 252 Nov-15 RBS Bloomfield Shopping Centre REOs UK Tristan Capital / Ellandi 73 Nov-15 NAMA Elm Park REOs Ireland Starwood Capital 200 Nov-15 Banco Sabadell 67-69 Avenue Victor Hugo REOs France La Francaise 130 Nov-15 UKAR Granite Mortgage Portfolio Resi Loans UK Cerberus 13,392 Nov-15 UKAR NRAM Loans (from Granite portfolio) Resi Loans UK TSB Bank 4,455 Nov-15 HSH Nordbank Spring Property Portfolio REOs Netherlands M7 Real Estate 60 Nov-15 UniCredit Project Sandokan CRE Loans Italy PIMCO / GWM 1,200 Nov-15 NAMA / RBS Dublin 3.7 Acre Site REOs Ireland Ronan Group 200 Nov-15 Coventry Building Society UK Buy-to-let Mortgages Resi Loans UK TwentyFour Asset Management 419 Dec-15 RBS Project Clear CRE Loans Ireland Cairn Homes / Lone Star 2,000 Dec-15 NAMA Pentagon Centre REO UK Ellandi / Bridges Ventures 58 Dec-15 Bank of Ireland Project Lanyon REOs UK Davidson Kempner 68 Dec-15 RBS Project Door CRE Loans Italy BAML 100 Dec-15 CaixaBank Project Atalaya CRE Loans Spain TPG / Goldman Sachs 900 Dec-15 Deutsche Bank Italian Residential & Commercial RE NPLs Resi & CRE Loans Italy Algebris Investments 172 Dec-15 Propertize Project Dolphin CRE Loans Netherlands Goldman Sachs 224 Dec-15 NAMA Tallaght Cross West Apartments REOs Ireland Ires REIT 83 Dec-15 NAMA One Spencer Dock REOs Ireland Hines 240 Dec-15 Erste Group Banca Comerciala Romana CRE Loans Romania Deutsche Bank 1,200 Dec-15 Morgan Stanley / Prelios ICR 8 Italian NPLs CRE Loans Italy PVE Capital 157 Dec-15 Lone Star Project Randolph CRE Loans UK Tristan Capital 203 VENDOR PROJECT TYPE COUNTRY FACE VALUE €M NAMA Project Lee CRE Loans Ireland 350 Goldman Sachs Project Tristan CRE Loans Germany 800 CaixaBank Project Eurostars REOs Spain 103 NAMA Project Slaney REOs Ireland 100 ING Group Eurocommerce Loans CRE Loans Netherlands 100 BBVA Project Otelo REOs Spain - BBVA Project Zafiro REOs Spain 150 Santander Project Formentera CRE Loans Spain 170 ING Group Project Isabella CRE Loans Spain - ING Group Project Julieta CRE Loans Spain 371 Ibercaja Banco Project Kite REOs Spain 800 Goldman Sachs / NAMA / Hines Spencer Dock Block R REOs Ireland 90 Rabobank De Rotterdam Towers REOs Netherlands 400 Intesa Sanpaulo PBZ Portfolio CRE Loans Croatia 200 BBVA Project Liceo CRE Loans Spain 70 SAREB Project Vega CRE Loans Spain 180 SAREB Project Silk CRE Loans Spain 400 NAMA Liffey Portfolio REOs Ireland 58 EAA Project Orange Resi Loans Germany 1,080 SAREB Project Macarena Resi Loans Spain 410 FMS Project Samba CRE Loans Germany 230 Eurobank Bancpost NPLs CRE Loans Romania 65 Bankia Project Big Bang REOs Spain 4,231 SAREB High value asset NPLs CRE Loans Spain 800 SAREB NPLS backed by Hotels, Warehouses & Retail CRE Loans Spain 200 Propertize Project Triple+ CRE Loans Netherlands 140 Portuguese Bank Project Andorra CRE Loans Portugal - Kildare Partners Triple Portfolio REOs Germany 150 Hypo Tirol Bank Project Golden Roof CRE Loans Italy 364 FGH Bank Project Rembrandt CRE Loans Netherlands - Blackstone Project Webb REOs UK 290 Banco Mare Nostrum Project Stream - Developer Loans CRE Loans Spain 160 Banco Mare Nostrum Project Stream - REOs REOs Spain 140 AIB Project Forge CRE Loans UK 743 AIB Project Hurst Resi Loans UK 173 Intesa Sanpaolo Proejct Rosemary CRE Loans Romania 287 RBS Junction One & The Outlet REOs UK 81 RBS Project Detroit CRE Loans UK 810 NAMA Cashel Shopping Centre REOs Ireland 7 Banco Sabadell Project Empire REOs Spain 600 GE Capital Project Zagato Resi Loans Spain 600 EAA Project Botticelli CRE Loans Italy 350
  • 16. cushmanwakefield.com Cushman & Wakefield Copyright 2015. NO WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS MADE TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, AND SAME IS SUBMITTED SUBJECT TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, CHANGE OF PRICE, RENTAL OR OTHER CONDITIONS, WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT NOTICE, AND TO ANY SPECIAL LISTING CONDITIONS IMPOSED BY THE PROPERTY OWNER(S). AS APPLICABLE, WE MAKE NO REPRESENTATION AS TO THE CONDITION OF THE PROPERTY (OR PROPERTIES) IN QUESTION. Federico Montero Partner, Head of Loan Sales EMEA Corporate Finance +44 (0) 20 7152 5369 federico.montero@cushwake.com Luka Jevnikar Associate EMEA Corporate Finance +44 (0) 20 7152 5994 luka.jevnikar@cushwake.com Siôn Owen Senior Analyst EMEA Corporate Finance +44 (0) 20 7152 5204 sion.owen@cushwake.com James Webster Analyst EMEA Corporate Finance +44 (0) 20 7152 5337 james.webster@cushwake.com Kuran Aujla Analyst EMEA Corporate Finance +44 (0) 20 7152 5969 kuran.aujla@cushwake.com For more information about Cushman & Wakefield Corporate Finance Loan Sales, contact: