Firms use strategic foresight practices to identify change drivers, discover opportunities and threats, engage in scenario-based strategising and identify superior courses of action.
The slides are from the inaugural lecture of Professor René Rohrbeck. They provide an introduction to strategic foresight for managers and an overview of the research program of the Strategic Foresight Research Network at Aarhus University, Denmark.
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Strategic Foresight: How to build a superior position in markets of tomorrow
1. FEBRUARY 2017RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR, DR. RER. OEC.
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT: How to build a superior
position in markets of tomorrow?
René Rohrbeck, Professor of Strategy
3. 30 MARCH 2017
3
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
Mobile Internet
Computing
Internet of
Everything
Mainframe
Computing
Personal & Desktop Computing
Internet & Wireless
1 Million
connected
devices
20202010 20301960 20001980 19901970
500 Million
connected devices
1 Trillion
connected
devices
WE ARE LIVING IN TIMES OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN COMPLEXITY.
COMPLEXITY
Age of Manufacturing
4. 30 MARCH 2017
4
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
GLOBAL CONNECTEDNESS PROVIDES A PLATFORM FOR BREATHTAKING
SPEED OF GROWTH FOR NEW COMPANIES
YEARS to reach UNICORN status ($1B valuation)
7,5
2,5
20202010 20301960 20001980 19901970
86YRS
2YRS
7YRS
5. 30 MARCH 2017
5
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
LIFE EXPECTANCY OF ESTABLISHED FIRMS IS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY.
20202010 20301960 20001980 19901970
Average LIFE EXPECTANCY of S&P 500 companies
20
60
40
Projections
based on current data
6. 30 MARCH 2017
6
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
Are you surprised about the threats of…
COMPLEXITY
VOLATILITY
INCUMBENT MORTALITY
?
Have we adapted our management practices?
9. 30 MARCH 2017
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RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
We often expect that:
Running a successful business is about
outcompeting our known rivals.
10. 30 MARCH 2017
10
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
It is not good enough to compete against the rivals you know.
We need to…
…systematically create superior positions in attractive markets
of the future!
For that we need novel MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
12. 30 MARCH 2017
12
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
STATE-OF-THE-ART
2010
CASE STUDIES
2006-2009
• Practices are patchy
• None of the firms have
managed to create a constant
stream of successful business
renewal actions
1
2
13. 30 MARCH 2017
13
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
MATURITY MODEL OF CORPORATE FORESIGHT
Key Practices
CASE STUDIES
2006-2009
PRACTICES
Information
Methods
People
Networks
Organization
Culture
PROCESSES
i
Dedicated sensors to monitor driving
factors
Analyzing broad and deep
Systematically challenging dominant
beliefs and mental models
Collaborative interpretation using
systems-thinking methods
Continuous trial-and-error learning
Appetite for uncertainty
14. 30 MARCH 2017
14
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
APPLYING CORPORATE FORESIGHT PRACTICES GE CREATED ITS MOST
PROFITABLE BUSINESS UNIT.
Corporate Foresight Practices
Corporate AccelerationPerceiving Prospecting
2004
Water scarcity as
Mega Trend
2004
“Water business
synergetic with
existing energy
business”
2005
Acquisition
Ionics (water
treatment
industry)
2006
Acquisition
Zenon to secure
technology
leadership
2013
Energy &
Water 31%
of GE’s
EBITA
2005
Pilot plant in
strategic R&D
Center
Source: Dr. René Rohrbeck, Corporate Foresight Benchmarking Study 2010
Probing
15. 30 MARCH 2017
15
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
WITH FORESIGHT AND THE PERSISTENCE TO PLAY FOR THE MID-TERM
SUCCESS, SAMSUNG HAS CONQUERED ONE BUSINESS AFTER ANOTHER.
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Samsung mostly a
white-label
manufacturer
Systematic identification
of key capabilities needed
to become a world
leading company
Leader in
global TV
market
Samsung beats
Apple on Innovation
by introducing the
Phablet category
Samsung
Stock Price
Samsung among top
two in the mobile
telephony market
17. 30 MARCH 2017
17
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
OUR MODEL FOR FUTURE PREPAREDNESS
Comparing Corporate Foresight Need and Maturity
MATURITY
of Corporate Foresight practices
NEED
ForCorporateForesight
THE BIG IDEA
TRANSPARENT INDICATOR
Comparable across industries and firm sizes
18. 30 MARCH 2017
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RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
MEASURING FUTURE PREPAREDNESS
COMPARING THE NEED FOR AND THE MATURITY OF CORPORATE FORESIGHT PRACTICES
Perceiving
Prospecting
Probing
Environmental
Dynamism
Environmental
Complexity
Environmental
Hostility
Strategic
Orientation
PREPAREDNESS
Level
NEED
for Corporate Foresight
MATURITY
of Corporate Foresight
Need
level
Level 3
Level 2
Level 1
Level 4
Maturity
level
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
GREEN
Vigilant
ORANGE
Neurotic
RED
Danger
When
Need Level
=
Maturity Level
ORANGE
Vulnerable
When
Need Level
<
Maturity Level
When
Need Level, 1 Level
>
Maturity Level
When
Need Level, 2/3 Level
>
Maturity Level
Maturity
areas
19. 30 MARCH 2017
19
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
WE HAVE BENCHMARKED MORE THAN 450 FIRMS AND CONFRONTED
MORE THAN 50 TOP MANAGEMENT TEAMS WITH THE RESULTS
40+ IN-DEPTH CASE STUDIES
of large multinational organizations
450+ SURVEYED FIRMS
all large multinational organizations with a track record of
utilizing corporate foresight. Focused on measuring the
impact of corporate foresight on innovation and firm
performance
EMPIRICAL RESEARCH
2006 to present
RELEVANCE
2006 to present
50+ TOP MANAGEMENT TEAM
WORKSHOPS
To validate the results, compare results with benchmark
and provide recommendations
20. 30 MARCH 2017
20
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
Going forward…
…future preparedness could serve as a powerful indicator to
judge the capacity of a firm to create superior positions in
attractive markets of the future!
22. 30 MARCH 2017
22
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
THAT FIRMS AIM TO WIN THROUGH CORPORATE FORESIGHT
IS RARE.
Firms invest
in Corporate Foresight
only if
they are in a
technological turbulent
environment
AND
have free cash-flow
Tymen Jissink
PhD fellow, AU
23. 30 MARCH 2017
23
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
Hence…
…it is vital to be able to identify vulnerable firms before it is too
late.
24. 30 MARCH 2017
24
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
IS THE LEVEL OF FUTURE PREPAREDNESS A GOOD PREDICTOR
FOR MID-TERM SUCCESS?
Menes Kum
PhD fellow / Deloitte
Corporate
Foresight
Need
Corporate
Foresight
Maturity
Schumpeterian rents
generate higher
market valuation
growth and
superior
profitability, when
compared with industry
peers.
Future
preparedness
The ability to systematically
and ahead of competition
• spot trends
• understand and use
systemic change effects
• probe into new markets
By acting ahead of
competition, firms attain
superior positions in
future markets
25. 30 MARCH 2017
25
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
FUTURE PREPAREDNESS AND ITS EFFECT ON…
PROFITABILITY*
MARKET
CAPITALIZATION*
ALL FIRMS VIGILANT VULNERABLE IN DANGERNEUROTIC
+33%
16%
10% 9%
12%
10%
-37% -37% -44%
ALL FIRMS VIGILANT VULNERABLE IN DANGER NEUROTIC
75%
38% 9%
25%
10%
-49% -101% -108%+200%
-1% -6%
* Data: Future preparedness data from 2008
Profitability and Market Capitalization data from 2015
Menes Kum
PhD fellow / Deloitte
26. 30 MARCH 2017
26
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
In consequence…
…we can expect that investing in enhancing future
preparedness pays off (in the mid term).
28. 30 MARCH 2017
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RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
WE WILL FOCUS ON LONGITUDINAL RESEARCH ON THE
CORPORATE, BUSINESS, PROCESS AND INDIVIDUAL LEVEL.
Level of the individualCorporate level Business level Process level
Sebastian Knab
University of Hamburg
Siri Bøe-Lillegraven
Aarhus University
Kent Thorén & Matti Kaulio
KTH Stockholm
Christina Bidmon
Aarhus University
Does business model
innovation enable established
firms to survive transitions?
Did double ambidexterity
enable an incumbent telco to
survive 3 major disruptions?
How do cognition and action
interact in the dynamic process
of Business Model Innovation?
How does Corporate Foresight
influence information
processing?
29. 30 MARCH 2017
29
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
WE FOLLOW IN THE TRADITION OF “LA PROSPECTIVE” WHICH AIMED TO
ENABLE MANKIND TO DRIVE ITS OWN DESTINY.
Gaston Berger
French Philosopher
1896 - 1960
“We need more powerful practices to
collaboratively define the desired ends”
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
30. 30 MARCH 2017
30
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
DRIVING
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
FOR
BETTER FUTURES
• 40+ adoption of our practices by MNOs
• Shown the impact through research
• Maturity model
• Creation of an indicator
• Regular benchmarks
CONTRIBUTIONS
31. 30 MARCH 2017
31
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
DRIVING RESEARCH AND PRACTICE OF STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT FOR BETTER FUTURES.
THANK YOU!
The privilege of working with
• 9 Doctoral/PhD students
• 32 MSc-thesis students
• 14 Co-Autors
32. 30 MARCH 2017
32
RENÉ ROHRBECK
PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
Rene Rohrbeck
Professor of Strategy, Dr. rer. oec.
Aarhus University
BLOG: http://futureorientation.net
THANK YOU!
RESEARCH: http://mgmt.au.dk/strategicforesight