To ensure long-term competitiveness, companies need to develop the ability to explore, plan, and develop new business fields. A suitable approach faces multiple challenges because it needs to (1) integrate multiple perspectives, (2) ensure a high level of participation of the major stakeholders and decision-makers, (3) function despite a high level of uncertainty, and (4) take into account interdependencies between the influencing factors. In this paper, we present an integrated approach that combines multiple strategic-foresight methods in a synergetic way. It was applied in an inter-organizational business field exploration project in the telecommunications industry.

1. Strategic Foresight for Collaborative
Exploration of New Business Fields
Based on T. Heger, R. Rohrbeck, Strategic Foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields, Tec.
Forecast. Soc. Change (2011), doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.11.003
Tobias Heger
Prof. Dr. René Rohrbeck
Tobias Heger • Universität Potsdam • Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship
Prof. Dr. René Rohrbeck • Aarhus University • Business and Social Sciences

2. The use of foresight methods promises to overcome common
problems when entering new business fields.
Problems when entering business fields Needed abilities when entering business fields
 Information is not detected  Integration of multiple perspectives
 Top management lacks the ability to access the  Integration of key stakeholders throughout the
economic potential process
 Information is filtered by middle management  Top-management visibility or top-management
participation
 Complex company structures trigger inertia
A combination of strategic foresight methods can help to overcome the challenges by …
 … combining an external trend analysis with an internal analysis
 … facilitating the strategy-formation process
 … supporting strategic decision making
 … moderating innovation planning
Tobias Heger • Universität Potsdam • Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship
Prof. Dr. René Rohrbeck • Aarhus University • Business and Social Sciences

3. Our methodology draws from several guiding frameworks to address
the main dimensions of new fields.
Our foresight methdology Elements of guiding frameworks
Dimension Targeted elements Porter‘s 5 forces Business Business
(method) modelling planning
Product • Value proposition • Value proposition • Technology plan
properties • Relative product advantage • Customer
• Product positioning segments
(Use-cases) • Targeted market segment • Key activities
• Strategic fit • Key resources
• Customer expectations
Competitor • Up- and downstream partners • Rivalry among existing • Key partners • Competition
analysis • Industry growth and profitability competitors • Strategic position
• Competitors’ strategies • Bargaining power of
(Value Network, • Rivalry, competitive-ness and new buyers
MACTOR) competitors • Bargaining power of
• Power structures suppliers
• Convergences and divergences of • Threat of new market
interests entrants
Market analysis • Environmental conditions (political, • Threat of substitute • Industry analysis
(Scenario regulatory, and sociological) products and services and trends
• Market and technology trends and • Target market
Analysis) drivers • Risk assessment
• Future market configurations
Financial • Production costs • Financials
• Customers’ willingness to pay • Revenue stream
analysis
• Sales estimates • Cost structure
(Target Costing)
• Revenue estimations
• Market potential
Tobias Heger • Universität Potsdam • Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship
Prof. Dr. René Rohrbeck • Aarhus University • Business and Social Sciences

4. Five methods are combined to answer the key questions that emerge
when exploring new business fields.
Product idea, emerging technologies, first ideas on product advantage Development of new business field
1
Final business
Use cases field validation
What are the key
product properties?
2/3
Who are the Has the
5
actors in the value New new business
network? What are Business field the potential to
their interests, how Fields become financially
Value Network & will they behave? viable?
MACTOR How will the market of the Target Costing
new business field evolve? What are
trends and barriers?
4
Scenario Analysis
Tobias Heger • Universität Potsdam • Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship
Prof. Dr. René Rohrbeck • Aarhus University • Business and Social Sciences

5. The consecutive use of the methods exploits synergies in the data
collection and evaluation.
Method Re-use of data Targeted elements
1 • Value proposition • Product functions • Value proposition • Value proposition Product properties
• Product functions • Targeted market • Product functions
• Value proposition
(indicating relevant segments • Customer
actors) • Customer expectations • Relative product advantage
expectations • Market potential • Product positioning
• Targeted market segment
• Product
Use Cases positioning
• Strategic fit
2 • Up- and down- • Up- and down- • Up- and down- Competitor analysis
stream stream stream
• Up- and downstream
partnerships partnerships partnerships
• Interdependences • Interdependences partnerships
Value among actors among actors • Interdependencies among
actors
Network • Industry growth & profitability
3 • Competitor strategies • Rivalry, potential • Competitor strategies
• Rivalry, potential market entrants, • Rivalry, potential market
market entrants, competitiveness entrants, competitiveness
competitiveness • Power structures • Power structures
• Power structures • Convergences &
• Convergences & divergences of interest
MACTOR divergences
4 Market analysis
• Environmental conditions
• Market and tech. drivers
Scenario •
•
Future market configurations
Strategies to meet future
Analysis market conditions
5 Financial analysis
• Production costs
• Allowable retail price
Target •
•
Sales & revenue estimates
Market potential
Costing
Tobias Heger • Universität Potsdam • Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship
Prof. Dr. René Rohrbeck • Aarhus University • Business and Social Sciences

6. Throughout the analyses collaboration and creativity methods
enhance the quality of results.
Face-to-Face http://
Desk Research
Meetings
Panel Discussions Publications
Workshops ? Questionnaires
Conference Calls Expert Knowledge
Mailing Lists @ Interviews
Tobias Heger • Universität Potsdam • Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship
Title
Prof. Dr. René Rohrbeck • Aarhus University • Business and Social Sciences
of

7. The methodology provides a multi-level analysis, facilitates
collaboration and is adaptable to specific needs.
Project results Facilitation of collaboration
 Identification of product properties for new  Regular face-to-face meetings and panel
markets discussions foster quality
 Description of the relevant actors  Interactive workshops facilitate management
support
 Explication of emerging alliances and
conflicts  Use of collaboration tools increase project
communication efficiency
 Insights on drivers, barriers and
showstoppers  Team building activities increase commitment
 Evaluation of the financial viability and cost  Continuous alignment and visualization of
structures results and expectations ensure adherence of
time limits
 Recommendations on how to enter the new
market
Tobias Heger • Universität Potsdam • Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship
Prof. Dr. René Rohrbeck • Aarhus University • Business and Social Sciences