Session 2.2 r. dellink - oecd
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OECD Technical Expert Workshop on Modelling the Impact on Circular Economy and Low Carbon Transitions of the Covid-19 Recovery Packages
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Session 2.2 r. dellink - oecd
- 1. Recovering from Covid: rebound but no return Rob Dellink Environment and Economy Integration Division OECD Environment Directorate Contributions by Grace Alexander, Ruben Bibas, Elisa Lanzi, Eleonora Mavroeidi, Daniel Ostalé Valriberas, OECD Environment Directorate; Christine Arriola, Frank van Tongeren, OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate Technical workshop, 13 April 2021
- 2. Modelling Covid-19 pandemic and recovery • Purpose: assess the effects of Covid-19 pandemic and recovery on a range of environmental pressures using the ENV-Linkages dynamic model • Three main sources of input: – Economic Outlook by the Economics Department (March 2021): Changes in macroeconomic variables, incl. GDP and unemployment; IMF World Economic Outlook for developing countries – Calculations by the Trade & Agriculture Department (Jan. 2021; work in progress): Detailed sectoral, regional and trade shocks – Preliminary results kindly shared with us – World Energy Outlook by the International Energy Agency (Oct. 2020): Changes in energy demand • Recovery: 2021-2025 GDP forecasts (OECD-IMF) & market recovery
- 3. GDP growth rates recover quickly but effects on GDP levels are long-lasting -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 GDP level (deviation from pre-Covid baseline) Level Covid scenario (deviation from baseline) -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 GDP growth rate (annual) Pre-Covid baseline Covid scenario
- 4. Big variations across regions and sectors -15% -10% -5% 0% Canada USA OECD Latin Am. OECD EU 22 Other OECD Eur. OECD Pacific OECD Oceania Other Latin Am. Non-OECD EU Non-OECD Eur. M.East&N.Africa Other Africa China India Other Non-OECD Asia World total 2020 -15% -10% -5% 0% Canada USA OECD Latin Am. OECD EU 22 Other OECD Eur. OECD Pacific OECD Oceania Other Latin Am. Non-OECD EU Non-OECD Eur. M.East&N.Africa Other Africa China India Other Non-OECD Asia World total 2040 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Agriculture Iron and Steel Construction Motor Vehicles Petroleum and coal products Electricity Land transport Pharmaceuticals Accommodation & food services Chemical products Rubber and plastic products Total 2020 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Agriculture Iron and Steel Construction Motor Vehicles Petroleum and coal products Electricity Land transport Pharmaceuticals Accommodation & food services Chemical products Rubber and plastic products Total 2040 Deviations from pre-Covid baseline projection
- 5. Global environmental pressures all decline, but follow sectoral and regional patterns Deviations from pre-Covid baseline projection -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 GHG emissions CO2 All GHG -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Air pollutants PM2.5 NOx CO NH3 NMVOC SO2 -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Materials use Metals Minerals Biomass Fossil fuels -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Land use change Harvested area Forestry production
- 6. A slow recovery scenario Scenario assumptions: no 2021 TFP rebound; recovery rates halved -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Covid scenario Agriculture Manufacturing Energy/constr./util. Services -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Slow recovery scenario Agriculture Manufacturing Energy/constr./util. Services -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Slow recovery scenario CO2 PM2.5 Metals Harvested area -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Covid scenario CO2 PM2.5 Metals Harvested area Deviations from pre-Covid baseline projection
- 7. Full recovery analysis • Current analysis only includes market recovery: rebound effects and reduced capital accumulation • This workshop can hopefully bring relevant info on how to specify the government recovery packages – Macroeconomic effects: productivity stimulus, government debt sustainability – Structural effects: changes in demand, sectoral stimulus and trade barriers – Explicit effects on the environment beyond effects on (green) sectors? • There is a need to shift from “Covid shocks” to “Covid-inclusive baselines” – If possible update the SSP scenarios!?
- 8. Thank you!