OECD Technical Expert Workshop on Modelling the Impact on Circular Economy and Low Carbon Transitions of the Covid-19 Recovery Packages

1. ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE
COVID-19 PANDEMIC: INSIGHTS
FROM THE METRO MODEL
Session 2: Quantifying the impacts of recovery
packages on economic activity
13-14 April 2021 – Technical Workshop

2. COVID-19 related factors behind the
economic developments in 2020
• Effects of COVID-19 containment measures, government support
policies and changes in agents’ behaviour on:
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Highly unequal across countries
and sectors, impact quite
uncertain
 Labour markets
(productivity)
 Consumer demand
 Goods and services trade
costs
 Government support to
Households and corporate
sector

3. COVID-19 related factors behind the
economic developments in 2020
• A CGE framework (OECD METRO) allows to combine different
pieces of information in an analytically consistent framework and
obtain a coherent global picture.
 Labour markets (productivity)  4% decline in productivity (adjusted
for teleworkability)
 Goods and services trade costs increase  increase in AVEs of TFI and
STRI
 Consumer demand  calibrated
 Government support measures in 2020
 Given to household and firms (labour and capital) as direct
subsidies
 Total dollar amount = change in government balance between
2019-2020.
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4. Preliminary Results
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Change in global output by sector

5. Thank you for your attention!
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