OECD Technical Expert Workshop on Modelling the Impact on Circular Economy and Low Carbon Transitions of the Covid-19 Recovery Packages

1. OECD Preparation Session for Technical Expert Workshop 13-14 April
The Environmental impact of Covid-19: Results from the E3ME model
Session 1: The impacts of Covid-19 on the environment and the transition to a circular and low-carbon
economy
13/04/2021
Hector Pollitt
hp@camecon.com
Twitter: @HectorPollitt

2. Thinking about it from a systems perspective
 The economy is based on a set of
technologies, covering a range of
economic sectors
 These technologies evolve over time
 The path of evolution is determined by a
range of internal and external factors,
including policy…
 … and pandemics

3. E3ME is a macro-econometric model
designed to assess global policy challenges.
It is the most advanced econometric model
in the world and is widely used for policy
assessment, forecasting and research
purposes.
E3ME is a macro-econometric
model designed to assess global
policy challenges.
It is the most advanced macro-
econometric model available and is
widely used for policy assessment,
forecasting and research purposes.

4. Impacts on CO2 emissions
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
%
from
no-covid
baseline
CO2 impacts,World
Covid-19 baseline Green Recovery Plan VAT recovery scenario
https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/press-release/report-green-recovery-plans-boost-income-employment-
and-gdp/

5. Impacts on material consumption (Covid scenario)

6. What might the modelling be missing?
 A lot of detail, yes
 But no obvious major issues – the broad trends appear correct
 Unless the recovery pathway changes the direction of technological progress
 To conclude: at present, the impacts of the pandemic on energy and resource consumption appear
largely short term – there is not really any indication of the transformational change that is needed

7. OECD Preparation Session for Technical Expert Workshop 13-14 April
The Environmental impact of Covid-19: Results from the E3ME model
Session 1: The impacts of Covid-19 on the environment and the transition to a circular and low-carbon
economy
13/04/2021
Hector Pollitt
hp@camecon.com
Twitter: @HectorPollitt