CCXG R R Rashmi reflection on COP 24 outcomes and upcoming work mitigation

1. NDCs and Paris Goals:
Perspective from India
R R Rashmi, Distinguished Fellow, TERI
25/03/2019

2. Contents
1. NDCs and Paris Agreement: Current trends
2. Decarbonisation in G20
3. Perspectives on India’s energy transition
4. International financial flows

3. Current trends
• Projected emissions of G20 countries are 40.6 to 43.7 Gt CO2 in
2030. Current NDCs will reduce it by only 2-3 Gts in 2030.
• G20 emissions in 2030 need to fall roughly by half to be in line with
1.5 degree goal.
• Disturbing trend: Energy related emissions in 15 of G20 countries
rose again after 2014.
• 82% of energy supply in G20 is still sourced from fossil fuels.
• Most G20 countries need to do more in Power and Transport
sectors.
Friday, 05 April 2019

4. How Does India’s NDC Compare?

5. Energy Intensity of GDP: World and India
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
koe/USD2015PPP
India's Energy Intensity of GDP Is
World Class
India United States
China European Union
*Primary energy, excluding traditional
biomass

6. Power Sector Decarbonisation: India and World
650
700
750
800
850
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
gCO2/kWh
CO2 Intensity of Grid-Connected* Electricity
Production, India
150
350
550
750
950
1150
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
gCO2/kWh
CO2 Intensity of Electricity Production, CN, USA,
EU
United States China European Union
*ex captive power

7. Where is India’s Electricity Sector Going in the
Mid-Term?
• As of today, wind and solar are the cheapest source
of incremental kWh. Wind and solar are cheaper than
around 1/3 of the variable cost (short-run marginal
costs) of the existing coal fleet (variable cost >2.75
R/kWh)
• This gap will only grow, as continued technology
learning, albeit at slower pace, decreases per unit
cost of wind and solar.
• By contrast the cost of coal generation is projected to
grow:
• Real growth in delivered costs of coal, driven
notably by real transport cost increases.
• Increase in capital costs for higher efficiencies
and lower pollution
• Sensitivities on the downside (e.g. lower transport
cost escalation, lower learning rates for wind & solar)
don’t fundamentally change this picture
5.0
2.8 2.9
7.0
2.6 2.3
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Non-Pithead Coal Onshore Wind Ground Mounted
Solar PV
R/kWh
Levelized Costs of Electricity
2018 2030

8. Power Sector Capacity Additions: India & World
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
India China United States European
Union
GW
Net Annual Additions or Retirements of Coal
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
20
40
60
80
India China United States European
Union
GW
Net Annual Additions of Wind and Solar
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

9. CO2 Intensity of Different Sectors, Global
Perspective
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
kCO2/USD2015PPP
CO2 Intensity of Industry
India USA China EU
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
CO2 Intensity of Transport
India USA China EU
• India’s CO2 intensity of industry, albeit rising, is still relatively low given its low level of
development and large urbanisation and industrialisation needs.
• Likewise in transport, although rising, India’s CO2 intensity of transport remains low
compared to global peers.

10. Are global financial flows for Transport and
Industry enough ?

11. Conclusions
• India does pretty well on an international comparison of its climate policy / energy
transition performance, due notably to its high energy efficiency and early progress in the
decarbonisation of power.
• India’s power is decarbonising well and will continue to do so, driven by the economic
competitiveness of RE. The rate at will RE can be deployed, while meeting grid integration
challenges, relative to demand growth, will determine the speed of power sector
decarbonisation. Nonetheless, the direction of travel is clear.
• Industry and transport sectors have been increasing their CO2 intensity, albeit slowly, mainly
because i) India starts from a very low base of industrialisation, urbanisation and transport
consumption; ii) insufficient international progress on unlocking technology options for
mitigation.
• India’s industry and transport sectors will grow substantially. As power decarbonises, and
these sectors grow, they will attract more and more attention. Therefore, India like other
emerging countries, has a big stake in enhanced international efforts to unlock mitigation
options in these sectors.