1) The document discusses uncertainty and differentiating it from risk, as uncertainty encompasses factors beyond one's control like time, place, and being fully prepared. 2) It notes that while people often think in terms of certainty, there are always unknown unknowns that can disrupt plans and expectations. 3) Uncertainty analysis is presented as a way to systematically assess all possible factors that could lead to success or failure in a given situation.

1. Solving Problems for Winning Results
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This document represents the intellectual property of Barra Gwynn Enterprises, and may only be used as specified in the cover letter
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June, 2012
Uncertainty, A Different Point of View
Introduction:
We have all heard any or all the following:
“I was certain that I had it right!” - “A sure thing.” - “Who would have thought?” - “I was positive!”
These all reflect a certainty that the outcome would be as predictable as possible. Clearly, “we know
what we know, but we don’t know, what we don’t know!”. Somehow, something we didn’t know,
happened! Something that should have worked, didn’t!
What this means to most of us, is that we are subjected to crisis without preparation or plan, or in
business terms a lot of wasted money and time! These may be annoyingly small interruptions, or as
Nassim Nicholas Taleb named them, Black Swan events, that test the composition and capability of
your organization to identify a remediation and recovery plan. Uncertainty, in any form, is a
disruption.
Uncertainty –
The root of the study of uncertainty was initiated through physicist Heisenberg’s attempts at
experiments to address some quantum mechanics theorems. Uncertainty has been expanded its
application to areas needing measurements of almost any type. Most notably NASA has studied then
adopted its calibration system to be founded on uncertainty from the prior tolerance based system.
Given the depth and breadth of the technologies that must work together to assure as much safety as
possible for the manned flights, as well as the highly political and public review of any failures,
NASA’s endorsement and use of Uncertainty offers validation of the approach.
Risk is inherent in life. Risk levels go up with the greater complexity, longer duration and/or greater
inherent danger in the process or mechanism. So, what are the risks of interest to metrology?
Level, depth and probability are all elements of the risk equation, and feed directly into the mitigation
process. Level is the assessment of the impact that the risk pertains. In other words, Level is the
amount of damage that could result if the risk is realized. For instance, the Level of risk in using
explosives is very high as failure results in severe to catastrophic damage to individual, tools and
materials. Depth refers to the amount or pervasiveness of risk that is inherent in the process,
material, and/or tools. An alternate explanation of depth is that it is a reflection of the risk in the
application being assessed. An example would be fire fighting, where the risk is throughout the
application from start to finish. Probability refers to the stacking of failure modes in a statistical model
assessing the ratio of success to failure.
Uncertainty can be divided into two major categories, opinion and fact or subjective and objective.
From this point the below chart reflects the type of uncertainty and the resultant decision that
manifests from the type of uncertainty.

2. Solving Problems for Winning Results
www.BarraGwynn.com
5431 Berryhill Drive Yorba Linda CA 92886-4004
[714] 961-0413
This document represents the intellectual property of Barra Gwynn Enterprises, and may only be used as specified in the cover letter
accompanying it.
AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY:
( courtesy of Ricardo Zorzetto Nicoliello Vêncio)
Uncertainty Assessment -
Amongst other things that Heisenberg’s Principle has contributed, the examination of the observer
being a possible source of error. This source of error may be the most insightful for executives?
Uncertainty is not identical to risk, but is in effect a supplemental assessment of “things that can go
wrong”.
Risk and Uncertainty, as compared in the seminal 1921 Frank Knight “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit”:
"Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of risk, from which it has
never been properly separated.... The essential fact is that 'risk' means in some cases a quantity
susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and
there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of
the two is really present and operating.... It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or 'risk' proper, as
we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty
at all."
Of the basic principle that success is based on: right time; right place; and being prepared, uncertainty
encompasses all three!! It is easy to see where time and place are uncertain (usually beyond one’s
control), but being prepared truly means using some uncertainty analysis!
While starting out with negatives isn’t preferred, it is a good way to try to dispel preconceptions before
considering a new point of view. Uncertainty differs from unknowns. Uncertainty isn’t risk alone.
Uncertainty isn’t the remaining percentage of confidence from a probabilistic calculation. Uncertainty
is a unique and insightful means of assessing all the factors of success and failure. Uncertainty
addresses the basic concepts that we ***ASSUME*** are constants.
Mallery (Mo) Aiken
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