Trong khi khối lượng hàng tiêu dùng nhanh (FMCG) tăng ở một số danh mục và khu vực, việc tăng giá bán sẽ siết chặt ngân sách chi tiêu của người tiêu dùng vào năm 2023.

1. An integrated
update of Vietnam's
FMCG market
Full Year 2022
Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam
By Worldpanel Division
FMCG
Monitor
(52 weeks ending 1/1/2023)
1

2. Executive summary
Macro economy
FMCG overview
Hot category
Retail landscape
Spotlight
GDP in 2022 is
estimated to increase
by 8.02%, setting a
record growth in
more than 10 years.
The rise in average
price paid drives the
growth of total FMCG
in both Urban 4 cities
and Rural, presenting
a challenge in
anticipating the
spending power in
2023.
Beauty Care is
recovering from a
decline in 2021,
especially Cosmetic
Remover & Sun
Protection which
managed to gain
traction uplift in 2
consecutive years,
maintaining the
categories’
momentum.
By the end of 2022,
Online channel growth
is leveling off despite
maintaining double-
digit growth along
with the recovery of
the channels under
Covid’s impact last
year.
Households’ rising
concerns about their
financial future
requires
manufacturers to
respond quickly to
specific scenarios to
limit future risks.

3. COVID-19 outbreaks caused by Omicron sub-variants, the conflict in Ukraine & inflation pressure have been "strangling" the growth
momentum of global economy.
The Most Significant World Events in 2022
1. Russia-Ukraine War
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, in a major
escalation of the tension between the two countries.
Leaving a huge impact on a global scale:
➢ Disruption in trade linkages & energy crisis
➢ Price shocks affecting gas and electricity markets in
Europe and Asia
➢ Food shortage
2. A Year Of Brutal Inflation
About two-thirds of developed economies and more than
half of emerging markets recorded inflation rates above
their targets by 2021, putting the 2022 world inflation at
8.8%.
According to the IMF, a third of the global economy is
likely to see a contraction this year or next, and global
economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2023.
Source: IMF, Worldbank, Vietnamplus, Vietnam Briefing *The International Labor Organization
3. Zero-Covid in China
While countries around the world have relaxed their
disease control policies, China continued to pursue the
Zero-Covid policy.
China's reopening in Jan 2023 is pivotal to the recovery of
the economic outlook globally. In parallel, global inflation
will be impacted significantly due to the recovery of
international mobility, production, and sales.
4. Global Labor Market Remains Volatile
From silent layoffs to mass layoffs, the world's job market
has experienced "ferocious waves" over the past year.
ILO** announced that the global unemployment rate is
expected to remain above pre-Covid-19 levels at least
until 2023.
2023 forecast: Global Inflation 6.6% GDP 2.2-2.9% Key trends:
• Commodities price pressure to ease, but volatility remains
• Labor market tightness likely to continue
• Global supply chains expected to recover

4. Source: GSO
The world’s economic instability in 2022 had a significant impact on the local economy. Despite global turbulence, Vietnam posted an
impressive GDP growth of 8%, putting the country in a strong position to sustain the growth in 2023 and the following years.
Vietnam’s macro economy
GDP
1.9
3.0 3.3
4.4
Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22
7.0
2.9 2.6
8
6.5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F
5.0
7.7
13.7
5.9
Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22
% Change vs the same period last year
2.8 2.9
1.8
3.1
4.5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F
4.8
19.5
42.5
17.1
Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22
11.4
2.9 -4
19.8
9
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F
Retail sales of consumer goods
& services
CPI

5. Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q4’22
The economic situation will be better or the same as today
in the next 12 months (% households agree in Urban 4 key cities)
Despite the GDP growth of over 8% vs YA, consumers’ optimism plummeted by the last quarter of the year following the
lay-off wave in many industries, brought on by weakening global demand for exports.
Consumers' perspective
5
84
42
80
62
74
81
60
65
76
82
86 88
72
Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22
1st COVID
impact
Wave 4 of
COVID

6. Worries about household income & Job security are on the rise, while concerns about Food safety are approaching pre-
Covid level (74%).
Consumers' perspective
62
36
29
22
17
51
15
9
58
40
28
24
16
57
14 15
71
45
31
20
18
29
15
19
68
53
40
24 24
18 17
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Disease / Sickness Food Safety HH Income Cost of Food Job security Price of Oil Environmental
Pollutio
Natural Disaster
%
Key
Decision
Maker
Agree
Q1_2022 Q2_2022 Q3_2022 Q4_2022
Currently what do you consider to be the biggest concerns you and your household is likely to face?
% HH agree
Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q4’22

7. Long-term growth in
total FMCG is driven
by an increase in the
average price paid.
Additionally, even if
the rise in
consumption is
slower than that of
the price, rural areas
show a hint of
improvement.
FMCG
overview
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
**: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA
Urban 4
key cities
% Change vs YA
9
6
3
4
0
4
5
0
5
val vol price
FY 2021
FY 2022
FY 2020
9
6
3
4
0
4
11
4
7
val vol price
1
5
3
11
Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22
4
11
15
17
Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22
Rural
Quarterly value trends
Value Volume* Avg. paid price**
Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG including Gift | 52 weeks ending 01/01/2023

8. The recovery of
Beverages and non-
food sectors have
contributed
significantly to the
uptick in FMCG in
Urban 4 cities, both in
terms of value and
volume.
Sector
performance
% Value change vs YA in Urban 4 key cities
FMCG
Dairy
Beverages
Packaged
Foods
Personal
Care
Home
Care
Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities Vietnam | Total FMCG including Gift | 52 weeks ending 01/01/2023
4
5
-4
16
-3
-2
5
2
13
-5
15
14
0
2
-6
10
-5
-4
0
-2
7
-13
13
9
4
3
2
6
2
3
5
4
6
9
2
4
FY 2021
FY 2022
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
**: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA
Value Volume* Avg. paid price**

9. Sector
performance
% Value change vs YA in Rural
Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG including Gift | 52 weeks ending 01/01/2023
4
10
-8
10
5
2
11
15
15
5
12
13
0
7
-10
2
2
2
4
9
10
-5
7
5
4
3
2
8
3
1
7
6
5
11
4
8
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
**: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA
FMCG
Dairy
Beverages
Packaged
Foods
Personal
Care
Home
Care
FY 2021
FY 2022
Value Volume* Avg. paid price**
Meanwhile, all other
categories have seen
significant growth in
rural regions, with the
exception of Packaged
Food, which is currently
growing slowly.

10. Category
highlights
Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 cities Vietnam | Total FMCG including Gift | 52 weeks ending 01/01/2023
Beauty Care is recovering from 2021, especially Cosmetic Remover and Sun Protection which managed to gain
traction uplift in 2 consecutive years, keeping the momentum for the categories.
Our study shows that steady education on new beauty occasions may raise consumer demands for emerging Facial
care categories (i.e Sun Protection and Cosmetic Remover).
% value growth FY 2021 vs YA
Beauty care
Hair Care
Oral Care
Liquid Bath
Facial Wash
Cosmetic Remover
Sun Protection
Make-Up
Hand & Body Care
Deodorant
Cosmetic Remover & Sun Protection recorded higher
trip growth than the total Beauty care sector.
Spend change ranges from -3% to +3%
Spend change ranges from -9% to +9%
Spend change at a
double-digit rate
FY 2022 vs YA
Finding new consumption occasions
Increasing consumption by turning
occasional usage into daily usage
Use daily, even in house to
protect skin against UV

11. % Value contribution of channel
58 48
24 21 16
-8 -9 -2
14 7
12
5 4
-3
3
Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22
24 20 21 -20 22
-9 -12 -14
30 21
-26 -17 -12
97
29
% YOY value change by channel
Retail
landscape
The rest is other channels, including hand-carry, direct sales, factory outlet,…)
54 54 53 52 51
6 7 7 7 7
6 6 6 6 6
11 10 11 11 12
11 13 12 11 11
7 7 7 8 7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22
Online
Hyper + Super
Mini Store
Specialty Stores
Wet Market
Street shops
Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks ending 01/01/2023
By the end of 2022, the Online channel growth is leveling off despite maintaining double-digit growth along with
specialty stores and wet markets. Modern Trade and Traditional Format (esp. Wet Market) are experiencing a
recovery following a dip in value in short-term Q4.

12. Spotlight
of the year
15
27 25 23
45
53 54 53
40
20 21 24
Q2 2021 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022
Struggling
Managing
Comfortable
% household agree by
each pressure group
And in the next 1 year, % of households think
that their financial situation will improve are…
66
48
30
Comfortable Managing Struggling
Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey & HH Panel | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities
Key questions to be answered
• WHO amongst your shopper base is most under pressure and feeling the strain vs. competitors’?
• HOW are your shoppers in different financial positions behaving and reacting to the rising inflation?
• WHAT are the ways in which you can continue to support shoppers across the financial spectrum?
Wave 4
of
COVID
Contact our experts to
know how your targeted
shoppers react to price
changes.
At the end of 2022, many households were becoming concerned about their financial situations, suggesting more
careful budgeting and spending in the future. With the new challenge, spending on groceries is likely to be impacted,
requiring manufacturers to respond quickly to specific scenarios to limit future risks.
% household agree by each pressure group
The pressure on the financial situation of
households is starting to increase again

13. Kantar is the world’s leading data, insights and
consulting company. We understand more about how
people think, feel, shop, share, vote and view than
anyone else. Combining our expertise in human
understanding with advanced technologies, Kantar’s
30,000 people help the world’s leading organisations
succeed and grow.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com/vn
Contact us
Jane Ha – Senior Marketing Manager
Worldpanel Division, Vietnam
E: Jane.Ha@kantar.com
58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
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