With 164,000 net new jobs, employment growth in April 2018 maintained the year's solid pace. Growth was spread across industries, although professional services emerged as a clear leader during the month, accounting for roughly one-third of all gains.
A slight drop to the civilian labor force spread to both employment and unemployment figures, driving down unemployment to a new low of 3.9 percent.
2. April 2018 U.S. labor market at a glance
2
+164,000
(90 consecutive months of growth)
1-month net change
+2,280,000
(+1.6% y-o-y)
12-month change
+917,000
10-year average annual growth
3.9%
Unemployment rate
6,052,000
(+7.7% y-o-y)
Job openings
-50bp
12-month change in unemployment
62.8%
Labor force participation rate
5,507,000
(+4.6% y-o-y)
Hires
3,210,000
(+6.4% y-o-y)
Quits
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. April registered yet another solid month for employment growth
With 164,000 net new jobs, employment growth in April maintained 2018’s solid pace. Growth was spread across industries, although professional services
emerged as a clear leader during the month, accounting for roughly one-third of all gains. A slight drop to the civilian labor force spread to both employment
and unemployment figures, driving down unemployment to a new low of 3.9 percent. Total unemployment also dropped by 20 basis points to 7.8 percent, its
first sub-8.0 percent reading this cycle.
Many metrics are stabilizing as a “new normal” emerges
A number of indicators – particularly those related to hiring and turnover – are beginning to show signs of stabilization. Job openings are now firmly hovering
around 6.0 million as employers continue to demonstrate difficulty filling open positions. Hiring has also flatlined in recent months around 5.5 million. Even
consumer confidence, which has reached new heights and hit 130 points in February, has started to wobble between 127 and 130 points in March and April.
Employers and employees alike are adjusting to a new, near-full-employment paradigm.
Wage growth remains the outlier among indicators
Among labor-market indicators, wage growth remains an outlier and has yet to budge beyond 2.6 percent in recent months despite a consistent labor shortage
nationally and in particular across growing metropolitan areas. Although this 2.6-percent figure masks higher wage growth in office-using sectors, it is still
below expectations given this point in the economic cycle and rising inflation is eating away at the potential for growth in disposable income.
April 2018 U.S. labor market highlights
3Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. 2.7%
3.0%
3.3%
3.7%
4.0%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.6%
4.8%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Construction
Mining and logging
Manufacturing
Other services
Trade, transportation and utilities
Professional and business services
Financial activities
Information
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Job openings rate (%)
Skilled industries, particularly education, health and
tech, still have large amounts of jobs unfilled
7Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9. -3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12-month%change
Wage growth Inflation
Even with severe labor-force constraints, wage growth
has yet to meaningfully rise from 2.6%
9Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. 1.4%
2.1%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.9%
3.3%
3.5%
4.0%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Manufacturing
Mining and logging
Trade, transportation and utilities
Professional and business services
Education and health
Other services
Leisure and hospitality
Information
Construction
Financial activities
12-month wage growth (%)
Financial activities wage growth once again reaches
4%; other sectors slower
10Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
+3.2%
Office-using
wage growth
+2.5%
Non-office-using
wage growth
11. -8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ChangesinceJanuary2007(%)
Civilian labor force Employed
The civilian labor force declined by 236,000 people in
April, further reducing slack in the market
11Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12. 62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)After a slight increase earlier in the year, the
participation rate dropped back down to 62.8%
12Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
13. -9.8
-4.0
0.4
1.0
1.8
2.0
7.0
8.0
14.0
17.0
18.0
24.0
31.0
54.0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Wholesale trade
Government
Transportation and warehousing
Utilities
Retail trade
Financial activities
Information
Mining and logging
Other services
Construction
Leisure and hospitality
Manufacturing
Education and health
Professional and business services
1-month net change (thousands)
Professional services returned to prominence in April,
representing one-third of monthly growth
13Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14. -26.0
-0.1
3.0
59.0
65.4
71.8
99.0
126.0
152.8
191.0
257.0
279.0
431.0
518.0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Information
Utilities
Government
Mining and logging
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Other services
Financial activities
Transportation and warehousing
Manufacturing
Construction
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
Annual job creation has become more evenly
distributed across industries in recent months
14Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
518.0
431.0
279.0
191.0
126.0
663.2
PBS Education and health
Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing
Financial activities Retail trade
All other jobs
Core subsectors added 70.9 percent of all
jobs over the past 12 months.
15. -3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12-monthnetchangeRetail trade’s recovery is continuing, albeit slowly:
annual growth hit 0.5% in April
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15
17. -300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Professional and business services Financial activities Information
Office-using job creation continues relatively unabated,
notably due to growth in information
17Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18. -10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12-month%change
Tech Energy, mining and utilities Office-using Total non-farm
Growth trends for niche sectors are beginning to
normalize at new, cooler levels
18Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics