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Food Systems, Food Security
and Environmental Change
John Ingram
Food Systems Programme Leader
Environmental Change Instit...
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic
and social access to sufficient, safe, an...
Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …
Source: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015
… which are set within a...
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
•Affordability
•Allocation
•Preference
•Nutritio...
The “Planetary Boundaries” Concept
Climate change
Rate of
biodiversity
loss
Nitrogen
cycle
Other ‘Outcomes’ of food system Activities
contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries
Example
contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing
food
Processing
& Packaging
food
Distributing
& Retailing
food
Consuming
fo...
Example
contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing
food
Processing
& Packaging
food
Distributing
& Retailing
food
Consuming
fo...
?
Food Security, i.e. stability over time
for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
•Production
How do changes i...
?
Food Security, i.e. stability over time
for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
•Affordability
•Allocation
•Preference
•Nutrit...
Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability
Poor people tend to spend relatively more of
their income on food, there...
Extreme weather also impacts food storage …
… and food distribution …
• Mycotoxins formed on plant products
in the field or during storage
• Residues of pesticides in plant
products affected b...
Background
But Food Security
is also a major concern
Planetary Boundary concerns are clear
Food systems are failing many:
~ 1 billion people hungry
Asia & Pac
~ 650m
SSA
~ 250m
Developed
~ 15m
~ 2 billion people suffer from Vit A, Fe, I, Zn and
other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger”
And food systems are also ‘failing’
a further ~2.5 billion of us!
Ng, 2014; AINW, 2014; Public Health England, 2014; Xi et...
“Dealing with different,
overlapping forms of
malnutrition is the ‘new
normal’.”
“Nearly every country in the
world experi...
Sufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient cals
Sufficient nutrs
currently ~ 3 billion
Excess cal...
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Fi...
World population, 1950-2100, according to
different projections and variants
World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision...
Looking ahead
$6,000 – $30,000
Dietary energy supply increases
as incomes rise …
… leading to increases in consumption.
(kcal/person/day)
Looking ahead ...
“unless trends are
curbed, half the global
adult population will
be overweight in 15
years time”
1
2200
- Too much - -- Too little --
Billions of people
----- Appropriate amount -----
(indicative; not to scale)
2 3 4 5 ...
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Fi...
Classic Concept Food System Concept
Social Nutritional
Environmental Environmental
Economic Enterprise
Sustainability Metr...
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Fi...
1. Developing concepts of “food system ecology”
integrating concepts of interconnectivity, community behaviour
and spatial...
1. Thinking in terms of ‘food system ecology’
interconnectivity, community behaviour, spatial organisation
Plants
Animals
...
2. Governance: part of dynamic food systems
“the mystery of
nature”
Uncertainty about
causes and effects
across scales
F...
DRIVER
Interactions
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Demographics, Economics,
Socio-political context,
Cultural context
S...
ECI Food Systems
Programme
? ?
Food and Climate Justice
A preliminary study for Oxfam
Christopher Coghlan,Maliha Muzammil,John Ingram,
Friederike Otto, R...
Background and purpose
• Seriousness of extreme
weather for vulnerable people
• Concern of frequency and
severity of extre...
Activities
 Selected 4 Case Studies based on range of recent extreme
weather events and impact:
• Heat wave in Russia 201...
Nature of Weather Event
Drought Flood Heat Wave Typhoon
Causative Link to
Food Insecurity
(Who) Vulnerable Groups
Income/A...
Overall Conclusions 1
Extreme weather events led directly to significantly higher food
prices
Extreme weather events hav...
Overall Conclusions 2
Governments and other policy actors need to adjust to extreme
weather events to help ensure food se...
SAFGOV
Southern African Food Systems Governance
Building a Research Community based on
Stakeholder Dialogue
Science
Agencies
Policy
Makers
Resource
Managers
e.g.
NRF,
ICSU-Africa
improved
GEC/food security
science
e.g.
USAID, FAO,...
Recognising that …
• Importance of private companies in food
security and land use issues is growing.
• How demand from la...
SAFGOV project objectives
• To build an community of research skills, closely
linked to a range of stakeholders across sou...
Demand Signal Material
Material
Consumers
Value Chain
Producers
Government
CivilSociety
Food Sec
Agencies
Nat Resource
Age...
Initial case study on the
South African Maize Value Chain
• Important staple crop
• Export links, especially regionally
• ...
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Food systems, food security and environmental change

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This is a presentation given by Dr John Ingram of Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute (ECI) to a Critical Theme organised by the International Institute for Environment and Development on 12 February 2015.

Dr Ingram leads the Environmental Change Institute's Food Systems Research and Training Programme, which aims to increase understanding of the interactions between food security and environmental change. The programme's research products have been adopted by national and international organisations, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the UK and Dutch governments.

In his presentation, Ingram looked at food system activities and 'planetary boundaries' – the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the earth's biophysical systems. If these planetary boundaries are crossed, then important subsystems, such as a monsoon system, could shift into a new state. Such shifts could have damaging consequences, including undermining the environmental conditions and the natural resource base on which our food security depends.

IIED hosts Critical Themes meetings to explore new ideas, introduce new research and broaden the knowledge of its staff.

More details: bit.ly/1CkRJ9K.

Food systems, food security and environmental change

  1. 1. Food Systems, Food Security and Environmental Change John Ingram Food Systems Programme Leader Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford
  2. 2. Food security… ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012) … is universally applicable … is more than food production … is underpinned by food systems
  3. 3. Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …
  4. 4. Source: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015 … which are set within a range of ‘environments’…
  5. 5. Food Security, i.e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS •Affordability •Allocation •Preference •Nutritional Value •Social Value •Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY •Production •Distribution •Exchange … ‘Outcomes’ of which underpin food security “… exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”
  6. 6. The “Planetary Boundaries” Concept Climate change Rate of biodiversity loss Nitrogen cycle
  7. 7. Other ‘Outcomes’ of food system Activities contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries
  8. 8. Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Climate change N cycle P cycle Fresh water use Biodiversity loss Atmos. aerosols Chemical pollution Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries
  9. 9. Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Climate change GHGs, albedo Factory emissions Emissions from transport and cold chain GHGs from cooking N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs Factory effluent NOx from transport Waste P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste Fresh water use Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning Biodiversity loss Deforestation, soils, fishing Paper/card Metal mining Invasive spp Consumer choices Atmos. aerosols Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking Chemical pollution Pesticides Factory effluent Transport emissions Cooking, cleaning Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries
  10. 10. ? Food Security, i.e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS FOOD AVAILABILITY •Production How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?
  11. 11. ? Food Security, i.e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS •Affordability •Allocation •Preference •Nutritional Value •Social Value •Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY •Production •Distribution •Exchange How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?
  12. 12. Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability Poor people tend to spend relatively more of their income on food, therefore suffer more when food prices go up Cost of wheat is 5% of cost of loaf of bread in USA, but 90% cost of chapati in India
  13. 13. Extreme weather also impacts food storage …
  14. 14. … and food distribution …
  15. 15. • Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage • Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in managing increased pest pressure • Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms • Pathogenic bacteria in foods during heat waves. … and food safety. Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009
  16. 16. Background But Food Security is also a major concern Planetary Boundary concerns are clear
  17. 17. Food systems are failing many: ~ 1 billion people hungry Asia & Pac ~ 650m SSA ~ 250m Developed ~ 15m
  18. 18. ~ 2 billion people suffer from Vit A, Fe, I, Zn and other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger”
  19. 19. And food systems are also ‘failing’ a further ~2.5 billion of us! Ng, 2014; AINW, 2014; Public Health England, 2014; Xi et al, 2013 Global: 33% of all adults are overweight or obese. Australia: 60% of all adults are overweight or obese. England: 19% of Yr 6 children obese & 14% overweight. Shanghai: Over 200,000 (14%) children are obese
  20. 20. “Dealing with different, overlapping forms of malnutrition is the ‘new normal’.” “Nearly every country in the world experiences some form of malnutrition, and no country can take good nutrition for granted.” “People with good nutrition are key to sustainable development.” International Food Policy Research Institute, 2014.
  21. 21. Sufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 2 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs currently ~ 3 billion Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs) currently >2.5 billion Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 1 billion Food security… ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
  22. 22. ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop Productivity Diversity & Quality Local, Regional & Global Production Activities farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm Constraints on dietary choice and diversity affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … => Consumption by Sub-populations Sufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 2 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs currently ~ 3 billion Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs) currently >2.5 billion CONSUMERS PRODUCERS Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 1 billion FOOD CHAIN ACTORS Social,Political,Business,andBiophysicalEnvironments
  23. 23. World population, 1950-2100, according to different projections and variants World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. 2013: 7.2 billion 2025: 8.1 billion 2050: 9.6 billion 2100: 10.9 billion Nearly 1 billion more in next 12 years!
  24. 24. Looking ahead $6,000 – $30,000
  25. 25. Dietary energy supply increases as incomes rise …
  26. 26. … leading to increases in consumption. (kcal/person/day)
  27. 27. Looking ahead ... “unless trends are curbed, half the global adult population will be overweight in 15 years time”
  28. 28. 1 2200 - Too much - -- Too little -- Billions of people ----- Appropriate amount ----- (indicative; not to scale) 2 3 4 5 76 8 109 2040 2014 2025 kcal/person/day consumption ------ Too much ------ --- Too little ------- Appropriate amount ---- ----------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount --- Too much -- Too little ------ Appropriate ---- 2000 The GHG/CC consequences of meeting this demand with current food systems and consumption trends are dire Impacts on non-communicable diseases (e.g. CVD, Type 2 Diabetes) will be massive Looking ahead ... US spent $190b on obesity-related health (2005) Number of hungry could well rise
  29. 29. ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop Productivity Diversity & Quality Local, Regional & Global Production Activities farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm Constraints on dietary choice and diversity affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … => Consumption by Sub-populations Sufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 2 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs currently ~ 3 billion Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs) currently >2.5 billion CONSUMERS PRODUCERS Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 1 billion FOOD CHAIN ACTORS -----NeedSustainabilityMetrics-----
  30. 30. Classic Concept Food System Concept Social Nutritional Environmental Environmental Economic Enterprise Sustainability Metrics for Food Systems “Sustainable” ≠ “Environmental” (only)
  31. 31. ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop Productivity Diversity & Quality Local, Regional & Global Production Activities farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm PRODUCERS FOOD CHAIN ACTORS Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security Hypothesis: % weighting put on sustainability metrics depends on ‘position’ in food system and world view. Constraints on dietary choice and diversity affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … => Consumption by Sub-populations CONSUMERS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Nutritional Environment Enterprise Goal Producers 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Nutritional Environment Enterprise Goal Value Chain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Nutritional Environment Enterprise Goal Consumers
  32. 32. 1. Developing concepts of “food system ecology” integrating concepts of interconnectivity, community behaviour and spatial organisation from agroecology and human ecology => Food system modelling, AIM, … 2. Enhancing food system governance linking governance research on complex adaptive systems with concepts of scale and level => CCAFS, Oxfam, SAFGOV, … 3. Improving resource-use efficiency and mitigating waste assessing opportunities across the whole food system, including potential impacts of dietary change => CIMSANS, SUSFANS, Local Nexus Network, … Main elements of ECI’s Food Systems Programme
  33. 33. 1. Thinking in terms of ‘food system ecology’ interconnectivity, community behaviour, spatial organisation Plants Animals Environ- ment Agroecosystem Production ecology Agroecology/ Productionecology Humanecology Individuals Cultures Institutions Social system ‘Foodsystemecology’
  34. 34. 2. Governance: part of dynamic food systems “the mystery of nature” Uncertainty about causes and effects across scales Fuzzy, hard to grasp, persistent Interrelated dynamic problems “the mystery of human behaviour”  Many actors involved in handling, causing and suffering the problems  Variations in valuing of, belief in, felt needs for solutions  Dynamic behaviour, strategic powerplay and learning processes Governance
  35. 35. DRIVER Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Environmental DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea level ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. nutrition, business, political stability Food Utilisation Food Access Food Availability Food Security 3. Improving Food System Efficiency and Outcomes
  36. 36. ECI Food Systems Programme ? ?
  37. 37. Food and Climate Justice A preliminary study for Oxfam Christopher Coghlan,Maliha Muzammil,John Ingram, Friederike Otto, Rachel James and Joost Vervoort
  38. 38. Background and purpose • Seriousness of extreme weather for vulnerable people • Concern of frequency and severity of extremes will change with changing climate • Need to consider how extreme weather events affect the food security of vulnerable groups • Need to assess how best to prepare Number of people affected by natural disasters 1900 – 2011 www.emdat.be Food and Climate Justice
  39. 39. Activities  Selected 4 Case Studies based on range of recent extreme weather events and impact: • Heat wave in Russia 2010 • Flooding in Pakistan 2010 • Drought in East Africa 2010-11 • Typhoon in the Philippines 2013  Assessed who was vulnerable, what was the impact of the event and why was it so serious  Assessed relevance of Climate Change  Drafted scenarios of impacts of even more extreme weather Food and Climate Justice
  40. 40. Nature of Weather Event Drought Flood Heat Wave Typhoon Causative Link to Food Insecurity (Who) Vulnerable Groups Income/Assets Urban/Rural Gender Social Divisions (What) Impact Pathways Crops (Food/Cash) Livestock Work Trade & Markets (Why) Politics, Policies and Economics Governance Structures Power Structures Response & Reconstruction Commodity Prices Flowchart for Case Study Analysis
  41. 41. Overall Conclusions 1 Extreme weather events led directly to significantly higher food prices Extreme weather events have played an important role in the instability of both short- and long-term food security Extreme temperature and extreme rainfall events are likely to increase globally over coming decades Scenarios for more extreme weather point to even greater impact on the more vulnerable Food and Climate Justice
  42. 42. Overall Conclusions 2 Governments and other policy actors need to adjust to extreme weather events to help ensure food security:  craft emergency preparedness programmes  develop and encourage their populations to subscribe to insurance schemes  create funds that can act to restore livelihoods in the aftermath of extreme weather events  work with their immediate neighbours on relevant regional warning measures, infrastructure, and emergency responses. Food and Climate Justice
  43. 43. SAFGOV Southern African Food Systems Governance Building a Research Community based on Stakeholder Dialogue
  44. 44. Science Agencies Policy Makers Resource Managers e.g. NRF, ICSU-Africa improved GEC/food security science e.g. USAID, FAO, CARE improved livelihoods & reduced vulnerability e.g. farmers, range conservation NGOs improved food security & nat resource mgmt e.g. SADC, national ministers improved food security & env policies How can Southern African food system activities and enterprises be improved to enhance food security and land use outcomes in the face of future challenges? Natural Scientists Social Scientists e.g. • agronomy • regional hydrology • land degradation • biodiversity loss • climate change e.g. • markets and trade • resource tenure • institutions • governance • social capital Science Questions Development Agencies Business Managers e.g. purchasers, processors, retailers improved food system efficiency & sustainability Key Question and Interested Parties
  45. 45. Recognising that … • Importance of private companies in food security and land use issues is growing. • How demand from large purchasers drives production.
  46. 46. SAFGOV project objectives • To build an community of research skills, closely linked to a range of stakeholders across southern Africa’s public and private organisations to study: 1. The effectiveness and adaptiveness of food system governance arrangements for food security; and 2. Food systems governance as driver of land use change and implications for associated ecosystem services.
  47. 47. Demand Signal Material Material Consumers Value Chain Producers Government CivilSociety Food Sec Agencies Nat Resource Agencies Input suppliers Health Sector Demand Signal SAFGOV Actor ‘Map’
  48. 48. Initial case study on the South African Maize Value Chain • Important staple crop • Export links, especially regionally • Maize is used in a variety of forms: food, feed and even fuel and industrial processes • Information is readily available
  • KirthigaSubramoniam

    Mar. 21, 2021
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    Dec. 2, 2015

This is a presentation given by Dr John Ingram of Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute (ECI) to a Critical Theme organised by the International Institute for Environment and Development on 12 February 2015. Dr Ingram leads the Environmental Change Institute's Food Systems Research and Training Programme, which aims to increase understanding of the interactions between food security and environmental change. The programme's research products have been adopted by national and international organisations, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the UK and Dutch governments. In his presentation, Ingram looked at food system activities and 'planetary boundaries' – the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the earth's biophysical systems. If these planetary boundaries are crossed, then important subsystems, such as a monsoon system, could shift into a new state. Such shifts could have damaging consequences, including undermining the environmental conditions and the natural resource base on which our food security depends. IIED hosts Critical Themes meetings to explore new ideas, introduce new research and broaden the knowledge of its staff. More details: bit.ly/1CkRJ9K.

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