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Networked Society Lab 
ICT & 
the future 
of Media 
Industry Transformation 
– Horizon scan 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 1
Structure of this Report Series 
This report is one in a series of seven investigating 
industrial transformation in the Networked Society. 
The impact of technology on our everyday lives and 
economic interactions is undeniable. In conjunc-tion 
with megatrends such as globalization, climate 
change, urbanization and aging populations, ICT is 
helping to transform our society and the economic 
structures that have formed the basis of industries 
since the industrial revolution. 
Digital technologies allow new organizational forms to 
emerge within and outside of industrial boundaries, 
thereby challenging our traditional notions of economic 
organization in markets. Where once size was an 
important driver of success, now many smaller com-panies 
are able to compete both locally and globally. 
Where firm, strongly defined boundaries and clearly 
defined economic roles were necessary, now the abil-ity 
to dynamically participate in a variety of networks is 
key to a resilient corporate strategy. ICT is transform-ing 
the rules of our world’s economic value systems, 
and industries are being transformed as a result. 
It is not possible to provide a deep dive into every 
industry covered within this series. Instead each report 
investigates the role of ICT in creating productivity 
improvements and industrial disruption with a view to 
gaining a broad perspective on the overall transforma-tion 
the world is undergoing. Six industries are inves-tigated 
and across them general themes are identified 
that form the basis of the final report, the “Economics 
of the Networked Society”, which outlines some of the 
broad economic principles that may help us under-stand 
the era we are entering. 
These reports represent the culmination of several 
years’ work investigating the changing economic 
structures of the world in the digital age. We hope our 
small contribution helps to further not just the vision 
of a Networked Society, but also its implementation 
– a society where dynamic, digitally enabled strategic 
networks allow us to build an economically, environ-mentally 
and socially sustainable world. 
2 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
Method 
The reports in this series are developed using systems 
analysis to identify the operating boundaries of each 
industrial structure. Through analyzing the boundaries 
and their associated thresholds, a stronger understand-ing 
of capacity for change within an industry is possible 
to achieve. This method combines systems analysis 
with traditional measurement methods as well as ex-tensive 
interviews across various parts of an industry’s 
value chain in order to try and understand the possible 
emergent characteristics of industrial structures and 
the role that digital technologies may play in creating 
innovation, disruptive or otherwise. Many boundaries 
may be affected by a number of different aspects. 
Within these reports, however, we focus solely on how 
these thresholds can be adapted by ICT. Each report 
outlines the following: 
1. The industrial boundaries and associated 
thresholds 
2. The role of data within those boundaries 
and the emerging information value chains 
3. An overview of the industrial archetypes / 
organizational forms of start-ups in the industry 
Each of these industrial analyses has then been further 
analyzed to understand the emerging characteristics 
of the Networked Society, which is covered in the final 
report. 
For further information on the method, contact 
Dr Catherine Mulligan: c.mulligan@imperial.ac.uk 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 3
ICT & THE FUTURE OF MEDIA 
TABLE OF 
CONTENTS 
Structure of this Report Series 2 
Method 3 
Scope of the Report 5 
Executive Summary 6 
1. Introduction 7 
2. Industrial Structure of the Media Industry 9 
2.1 Value Chain of the Traditional Media Industry 10 
2.2 Impact of Digital on Media Value Chains 11 
2.3 Intermediaries and Aggregation 12 
3. Media Industry Thresholds 13 
3.1 Bandwidth, Connectivity and Speed 14 
3.2 Consumption 17 
3.3 Financing 18 
3.3.1 Advertising 19 
3.3.2 ICT and Cross-Media Advertising 20 
3.3.4 Nature of Media Advertising in the Digital Era 21 
3.4 Intellectual Property 22 
3.5 Subscription Fees 23 
3.6 Regulatory Aspects 24 
4. Industrial Disruption in Media 26 
4.1 Authoritarian /Unilateral 27 
4.2 Entrepreneurial/Distributed 29 
4.3 Democratic/Inclusive 31 
5. Conclusions 32 
4 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
ICT & THE FUTURE OF MEDIA 
Scope of the report 
The media industry covers an extremely broad range 
of sectors, including: 
> Film 
> Television 
> Music 
> Print 
> Computer games 
> Advertising and marketing 
> Interactive media 
> Press and radio 
This report focuses on film, television and music, with 
some references to the application of social media 
within these contexts. In addition, due to convergence 
of cable, mobile and transmission technologies over 
the Internet Protocol, the pattern of transmission and 
content distribution is shifting. Smartphones, tablets 
and a variety of other devices are enabling end users to 
access content on demand and in the format that they 
wish to receive it. 
At the same time, a broad variety of industrial struc-tures 
are active in media from public service, which 
is financed by governments; independents, which are 
often a handful of people creating niche products for 
specialist markets; multinationals, e.g. BskyB, which 
delivers Sky Sports across the globe; and media 
conglomerates that provide some of the larger-scale 
services across the globe, e.g. Bertelsmann, which 
operates in over 50 countries and owns multiple TV 
and radio stations across the EU. All of this adds to the 
complexity of the media industry. For the purposes of 
this report, we focus on private companies and the as-sociated 
and intellectual property protection, with some refer-ence 
to public service. 
This report focuses on the role of ICT in reforming and 
disrupting the industrial structure, specifically how 
content is created, delivered and distributed to end us-ers. 
The report therefore has a consumer-centric, rather 
than a supplier-centric perspective on the industry. 
AUTHORS 
Dr C.E.A. Mulligan, Research Fellow, Imperial College London 
Dr Zeynep Gurguc, Research Associated, Imperial College London 
Sohrab Mosiri, Manchester Business School 
business models of advertising, subscriptions 
DISCLAIMER 
All care has been taken in the preparation of this document, but no responsibility will be taken for decisions made on the basis of its contents. 
1 IPCC (2007) Intergovernmental panel on climate change, Working Group III, Report May 2007. 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 5
Executive summary 
Perhaps more than any other industry, media typifies 
modern society and culture. It connects commerce with 
audiences, relates world events to households, cre-ates 
celebrity, and defines the cutting-edge. Access to 
smartphones and tablets has affected not just consump-tion 
patterns, but also the ability to participate in content 
creation. Social media have created opportunities for 
consumers to participate in all aspects of the media 
value chain. Many substantial brands have been eroded 
or collapsed, while others have emerged as new cham-pions 
of the digital era. Content creators, media compa-nies 
and distribution companies alike need to adopt agile 
strategies and exploit innovative business models in 
order to survive in this competitive and growing market. 
The media industry is still undergoing dramatic changes. 
The amount of available content is increasing, and 
more people can access it due to the proliferation 
of mobile broadband, digital TV and IP transmission 
technologies. The way in which media is created and 
consumed is also changing due to the use of digital 
technologies and the emergence of “prosumers” who 
often work together across networks to create content. 
This report provides an overview of the drivers of 
change within the media industry. It is evident that the 
media industry is still changing rapidly and fundamen-tally. 
New patterns of convergence and new alliances 
and configurations across the media supply chain will 
bring greater innovation to media, in terms both of 
products and services adopted by the consumer, and 
how the industry is configured to provide them. 
The report outlines three main organizational arche-types 
for media production within the Networked 
Society – Unilateral/Authoritarian, Entrepreneurial/ 
Distributed and Democratic/Inclusive. Each of these 
has different advertising, distribution and content 
development models. The report concludes with a pro-jection 
of what might come next in the media industry. 
6 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
1. 
Introduction 
“ In 1472 the best university library 
in the world, at Queen’s college in 
Cambridge, housed 199 books.” 
Davenport & Beck, 20011 
Media is currently undergoing a series of dramatic 
transformations as the traditional power structures 
in the industry are challenged by digital technolo-gies. 
New forms of content creation have long been 
understood as potentially disruptive elements, with 
user-generated content (UGC) proliferating in many 
different forms, from podcasts to blog posts and 
YouTube videos creating critical mass, or going “viral”, 
challenging the established content creation methods 
of large studios and television channels. UGC has also 
challenged the dominance of American culture around 
the world, as people of all cultures and languages are 
able to create content relatively cheaply. This trend will 
only continue with the obvious need to create content 
for and by the emerging BRIC markets2. 
UGC is just the start of these transformations, however, 
as digital technologies allow new forms of power dis-tribution 
to emerge for the media industry. Prior to the 
advent of cheap and ubiquitous ICT, the costs of media 
production and distribution were much higher. Indus-tries 
were formed around the management and exploi-tation 
of these costs, and the newspaper, television, film 
and music industries of the late 20th century flourished 
on high sales, high-paid stars and many forms of adver-tising. 
Much of the common culture of these decades 
was set by the actions of these industries. It is argu-able 
that mass media had a significant role in defining 
society as we knew it. Expensive production combined 
with expensive PR, marketing and distribution. This 
created extremely high barriers to entry for anyone 
wishing to enter this market. For example, it would cost 
at least US$200 million to create a cable network, or 
US$50 million for a national magazine3, leading to the 
development of extremely large, well coordinated media 
production corporations dominating the media industry. 
In the USA, these included the Washington Post, NBC, 
20th Century Fox and CBS, among other large corpora-tions. 
Products that were profitable for these compa-nies 
dictated popular culture. 
Today, ICT has dramatically lowered the barriers to 
entry, enabling users to challenge dominant culture and 
exposure to advertising. As a result, the overall media 
industry is facing a significant battle between old and 
new models. While the truly digital media industry is still 
emerging, many of the newly formed companies are the 
emerging corporations and conglomerates of the future 
media industry as it reforms itself in response to the 
digital challenge. 
1 Davenport, T. H., & Beck, J. C. (2001), The attention economy: Understanding the new 
currency of business, Boston: Harvard Business School Press. 
2 Media Vision, 2020, Ericsson 
3 Carr, D., 2014, Ezra Klein Is Joining Vox Media as Web Journalism Asserts Itself, 
NY times, Jan 26, 2014 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 7
1. INTRODUCTION 
The blurring of the boundaries between technology 
and broadcasting, combined with the growing number 
of broadcast platforms, creates new opportunities to 
engage audiences and increase revenues. It is there-fore 
important to understand the implementation and 
monetization of content enabled by digital structures 
and the current economic structure.4 
The internet economy has also acted as a catalyst of 
economic growth, creating jobs and increasing com-petitiveness 
in particular for media. BCG estimates that 
it should contribute to a total of US$4.2 trillion to the 
G-20’s total GDP in 2016. This internet economy also 
includes the media content industries, which employ 
10.8 million people in the EU27. Average annual growth 
rates for media content industries are higher than the 
overall growth rates in the EU. The internet is grow- 
4 The Future of Media Conference (2014) http://www.salford.ac.uk/spd/coursedetails?cou 
rseid=THEFUTby85 
ing and diversifying geographically, and the number 
of internet users is expected to increase from 2 billion 
to 5 billion by the end of the decade. Internet users 
already spend 20–30% of their time online, mainly 
engaging with media content. The media sector thus 
differs significantly from other sectors and requires ap-propriate 
policy making and regulation. In Europe, free 
media is often considered a part of, and a prerequisite 
for, democracy and quality of life.5 
The UK’s creative industries are currently worth more 
than GBP 36 billion per year. They generate GBP 
70,000 every minute for the UK economy and employ 
1.5 million people in the UK. These industries account 
for around 10% of UK export revenue.6 
5 EU Media Futures Forum Final Report (2012) http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/sites/ 
digital-agenda/files/forum_final_report_en.pdf 
6 EU Media Futures Forum Final Report (2012) http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/sites/ 
digital-agenda/files/forum_final_report_en.pdf 
8 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
2. 
Industrial 
Structure of the 
Media Industry 
According to the Institute for Media and Communica-tions 
Policy 7, media corporations have bigger budgets 
than some nation states. As agents and moderators of 
globalization, they have economic and opinion-shaping 
power. Technological progress and growing competi-tion 
force media corporations to expand their busi-nesses 
both nationally and internationally. 
Globalization, deregulation, technological innovation 
and the convergence of previously separate industries 
such as media, entertainment, information, and con-sumer 
electronics, have created a somewhat turbulent 
media landscape8. As certain technological thresholds 
have been crossed, industries that were previously 
separate now intermingle, creating a new industrial 
structure comprised of adjacent companies that must 
compete and collaborate despite having fundamentally 
different business models and industrial cultures.9 The 
boundaries of several industries are shifting and merg-ing 
together, and the segments are fighting to become 
“primary gateways for content access, navigation and 
provision”.10 As a consequence, many incumbent media 
companies experience severe challenges, as content 
proliferates, audience behaviors change, advertising 
revenue erodes, and new competitors emerge. Some 
competitors come from adjacent industries that have 
significant cash reserves and R&D resources. Others 
are tiny start-ups that may grow into a larger threat to 
established players. The newspaper industry is a prime 
example, with readers moving to online news and ad-vertising 
revenue following.11 
Cheap, ubiquitous ICT is eroding the benefits of scale 
for traditional media companies as cost savings gen-erated 
from centralized production and distribution 
decline. Media firms operating in this rapidly chang-ing 
environment have to adapt quickly to create or to 
sustain their competitive advantage. For profit-oriented 
entities such as media and entertainment companies, 
the central question is how to create, deliver and cap-ture 
value in the evolving landscape shaped by the ICT 
revolution. Sections 2.1 and 2.2 investigate the changes 
to the media value chain so far. Section 4 analyzes the 
emerging value chains. 
7 Media Data Base - International Media Corporations 2014, medialab.eu/en.html 
8 Kranenburg, H.V., Ziggers, G.W. (2013) How Media Companies Should Create Value: 
Innovation Centered Business Models and Dynamic Capabilities. Handbook of Social 
Media Management. Springer. 
9 EU Commission, 2012, The Digital Shift in the Media and Content Industries: Policy Brief 
10 ibid 
11 Duke, S., 2014, German giant who wants Google cut down to size. The Sunday Times, 
21/09/2014 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 9
2.1 
Value Chain 
of the Traditional 
Media Industry 
Traditionally, from a consumer’s perspective, the 
value proposition of the media industry comprises 
the medium itself, as well as the product or service.12 
A simplified traditional value chain can be comprised 
of creation, production and distribution of content, 
as illustrated in Figure 1. 
The traditional value chain was linear – content was 
created, e.g. a photographer took a photo or a journal-ist 
wrote an article, creating a “first module copy” that 
involved a significant amount of effort and cost. During 
the production phase, bundling occurred, which placed 
different content together to create the final market-ready 
product, e.g. a newspaper or a radio playlist. The 
distribution phase included everything related to the 
distribution of content to consumers, which traditionally 
required large infrastructure investments in the case of 
TV and cable networks, or complex logistics operations 
for music and newspapers to deliver the physical con-tent 
to consumers: “Movies made money from tickets. 
Bands made money from physical albums. Transactions 
took place between hands or across a register. The 
business model was a simple point of contact: Drive 
consumers through the doors”. 13 
Incumbents in the media industry originally applied 
ICT in order to increase efficiency in these processes, 
particularly with regard to bundling content. For more 
than 150 years, “new communications technologies 
have tended to concentrate and commercialize the 
production and exchange of information, while extend-ing 
the geographic and social reach of information 
distribution networks”.14 With the development of the 
internet, however, this concentration of power could be 
challenged and new organizational forms for informa-tion 
and entertainment could emerge. This is covered in 
more detail in Section 4. 
It is well understood that digital technologies have 
affected the marginal costs of distribution within the 
media industry. Once created, content in digital format 
can be reproduced at very little cost and instantly 
“shipped” to consumers over the internet. The internet 
has not just led to an acceleration of the distribution 
process, it has also led to a convergence of media, as 
different media types (e.g., movies, music and print) 
can now be distributed and consumed via the internet 
and across multiple devices. ICT has therefore played 
a significant role in shaping a new value chain. This is 
covered in the next section. 
Figure 1: Traditional Media Industry Value Chain 
Creation Production Distribution Viewers 
12 Hess, T., Matt, C. (2013). The Internet and the Value Chains of the Media Industry. 
Media and Convergence Management. Springer 
13 Thompson, D., 2014, The Future of Media will be Streamed, The Atlantic, April 10th 2014 
14 Benkler, Y., 2006, The Wealth of Networks, Yale University Press 
10 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
2.2 
Impact of 
Digital on Media 
Value Chains 
Due to social media and other digital communication 
channels, media companies can actively integrate con-sumers 
into their value creation processes. This allows 
them to exploit consumers’ potential (usually at a very 
low cost or even for free) to create additional value. In 
the case of media companies, the integration can occur 
at any of the three stages of the traditional value chain: 
content creation, bundling and distribution.15 This is 
illustrated in Figure 2. 
Increased usage of ICT has led to a complex and dy-namic 
process of “disintermediation”, as producers are 
able to generate direct sales and creators can directly 
distribute their work online. Telecom and IT players, 
meanwhile, create a move towards “re-intermediation”, 
allowing smaller companies that may not have large 
marketing budgets to participate in the market.16 
The most obvious examples are new forms of digitally 
enabled intermediaries, such as Spotify and Apple 
iTunes. Through access to closed digital music plat-forms, 
they have captured part of the market traditionally 
held by record companies. In particular, these platforms 
allow end users to create their own “bundles” of music. 
New aggregators enable TV consumers to decide what 
they want to watch and pick-and-mix their own services. 
Around 50% of consumers prefer this approach to the 
traditional TV bundles.17 “This is leading to the evolution 
toward a service model, where the consumer is buying 
a service which happens to be linked to editorial content, 
rather than buying a media product per se.” 18 
e.g. GoPro and social interaction with traditional medium 
Editing UCG 
Figure 2: ICT and Current Media Value Chain 
Creation Production Distribution Prosumers 
Social networks 
15 ibid 
16 EU Commission, 2012, The Digital Shift in the Media and Content Industries: Policy Brief 
17 Ericsson Consumer Lab Report, 2014 
18 EU Commission, 2012, The Digital Shift in the Media and Content Industries: Policy Brief 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 11
2.3 
Intermediaries 
and Aggregation 
New digital technologies have also helped create new 
media aggregators, such as GoPro, which allows end 
users to capture video and share it via the internet. Go- 
Pro sees itself as a media company as well as a hard-ware 
company. “On the GoPro channel on YouTube, 
videos average about half a million viewers each.” 19 
GoPro is therefore attempting to act as an intermediary 
for the large number of professional and amateur users 
of its equipment that tag their videos with “GoPro”. 
The company often selects videos and edits them to 
create a product that is more relevant for a particular 
market. For those engaged in activities such as adven-ture 
sports, The possibility of payment has also meant 
a change in the experience of performing tricks and 
stunts: recording and sharing them has become 
a deeply embedded part of the experience itself. 
“ When the agony of missing the shot trumps 
the joy of the experience worth shooting, the 
adventure athlete (climber, surfer, extreme skier) 
reveals himself to be something else: a filmmaker, 
a brand, a vessel for the creation of content. 
He used to just do the thing—plan the killer trip 
or trick and then complete it, with panache. 
Maybe a photographer or film crew tagged along 
… Now the purpose of the trip or trick is the 
record of it. Life is footage.” 20 
As is often the case with media technologies, GoPro 
was the result of a confluence of different technolo-gies 
reaching critical mass at the same time – small 
enough camera technology met waterproofing and high 
speed broadband. As will be discussed in Section 3, 
increases in technical speeds and capacities now have 
a direct impact on the media industry itself and the con-nections 
between different parts of the value chain. The 
fact that media and content are now often purely digital 
products, rather than a combination of digital and physi-cal, 
means that ICT has a fundamental role in the media 
industry that it does not have in many others. The role 
of ICT in the media industry continues to evolve. Sec-tion 
3 covers some of the main thresholds of the media 
industry in the digital age. 
Rather than the simplistic notions of disintermediation 
or re-intermediation, the media industry is experiencing 
a two-fold interaction between: 
1. The reallocation of costs across the industrial 
structure. Some costs are disappearing, e.g. physi-cal 
transportation. Some remain unaffected, e.g. 
editing. And others are being introduced, e.g. soft-ware 
security and digital rights management.21 
2. The increasing importance of non-market and 
non-proprietary content production22 through the 
creation of dynamic strategic networks across 
well-established internet technologies. 
Section 4 presents three organizational archetypes in 
media that emerge due to the interaction of ICT with the 
different parts of the media value chain, as the business 
models that have dominated the media and entertain-ment 
industry over the past four decades are challenged 
by new methods of creation, production and distribution. 
19 Paumgarten, N., 2014, We are a Camera: Experience and Memory in the age of GoPro, 
New Yorker, September 22nd, 2014 
20 ibid 
21 EU Commission, 2012, The Digital Shift in the Media and Content Industries: Policy Brief 
22 Benkler, Y., 2006, The Wealth of Networks, Yale University Press 
12 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
3. 
Media Industry 
Thresholds 
This section provides an overview of the main thresh-olds 
in the media industry. Due to space limitations, we 
have focused on those that are appropriate and ap-plicable 
in global markets. Industrial boundaries help 
define how economic actors are able to interact with 
one another within an industrial structure.23 Thresholds 
are associated with those boundaries, and once par-ticular 
levels are crossed, the entire industrial structure 
could be completely reformed, creating space for new 
entrants and redefining the role of all economic actors 
within it. 
This section presents three main thresholds. Section 4 
illustrates how these allow new organizational struc-tures 
to form and compete with one another: 
1. Bandwidth, connectivity and speed: Media is now 
directly linked to ICT and its associated technical 
capacities. 
2. Media consumption patterns: The manner in which 
media is consumed by end users is increasingly 
important for the industrial structure, and can rap-idly 
change it. 
3. Financing mechanisms: How the industry receives 
funding and pays for content reflects how much 
money is available for content creation. 
23 Mulligan, C.E.A., 2011, The Communications Industries in the Era of Convergence, 
Routledge 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 13
3.1 
Bandwidth, 
Connectivity 
and Speed 
The role that mobile connectivity now plays in the media 
industry – and society as a whole – cannot be under-stated. 
Mobile connectivity has increased dramatically 
around the world over the past decade. It is predicted 
that there will be 9.2 billion active mobile subscriptions 
by 2019, illustrated in Figure 3. 
2.6 billion of these will be on LTE networks, providing 
high-speed and seamless video access for end users, 
illustrated in Figures 4 and 5. 
The majority of that traffic will be video, as illustrated in 
Figure 5. While connectivity provides an illustration of 
how many people can access the internet, a closely re-lated 
threshold is bandwidth. Bandwidth can be under-stood 
as the total distribution capability of the industry, 
but is more commonly understood as the data capabil-ity 
of online mechanisms. Bandwidth in the context of 
media is split into uplink and downlink: 
> Downlink speeds are closely related to the types of 
content an end user will consume while using their 
mobile device. 
> Uplink speeds relate to how end users are able to 
contribute content and the distribution network 
forms they are able to connect to. 
Both of these thresholds are heavily dependent on 
subscription pricing. 
Figure 3: Fixed and mobile subscriptions 2010–2019 Figure 4: Mobile subscriptions by technology. Source: Ericsson 
Mobile subscriptions 
Mobile broadband subscriptions 
Fixed broadband subscriptions 
Mobile PCs, tablets and mobile 
router subscriptions 
SUBSCRIPTIONS/LINES (BILLION) 
Fixed and Mobile subscriptions 
2010 – 2019 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 
10 
9 
8 
7 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
Mobile subscriptions by technology 
2010 – 2019 
6.7 billion 
mobile 
subscriptions 
9.2 billion 
mobile 
subscriptions 
LTE/HSPA/GSM and LTE/CDMA 
HSPA/GSM 
GSM/EDGE - only 
TD-SCDMA/GSM 
CDMA - only 
M2M subscriptions not included 
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS (BILLION) 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 
10 
9 
8 
7 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
14 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
In 2013, video 
accounted for ~40% 
of mobile traffic 
Segment 
File sharing 
Video 
3.1 BANDWIDTH, CONNECTIVITY AND SPEED 
Social networking 
accounted for more 
than 10% of mobile 
data traffic in 2013 
and will have the 
same share in 2019 
Audio 
Web browsing 
Social networking 
Software download and update 
Other encrypted 
Other 
Mobile application traffic outlook 
2013 and 2019 
2019 
2013 
Figure 5: Mobile Application Traffic Outlook 2013 and 2018 
The continued drive towards mobility will have an 
impact on the media industry as customers become 
increasingly demanding about accessibility of content 
on a variety of devices over a variety of access network 
technologies. For example, consumers will expect to 
access the same content and media streams irrespec-tive 
of whether they are using radio, cable or fixed net-work 
technology, and they will want the switchover to 
be seamless. Consumers increasingly expect the same 
content to be accessible whether they are watching a 
TV, a laptop or “on the go”. They also expect to be able 
to move media between these devices as they move 
around, which places increasing pressure on network 
media solutions to manage handovers effectively.24 
24 Ericsson Consumer Lab Report, 2014 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 15
Display pixels (’000) 
App processor (Giga-operations per second) 
Modern downlink bitrate (Mbps) 
Figure 6: Increases in Mobile Device Capabilities 
Increases in mobile device 
capabilities 
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 
1,000 
100 
10 
1 
0,1 
0,01 
Figure 7: Social networking sites or apps used by those with a current social 
networking profile by age: 2013 
Total Aged 16 – 24 Aged 25 – 34 Aged 35 – 44 Aged 45 – 54 Aged 55+ 
14 
4 6 
2 1 
4 5 
6 
9 
42 
29 28 
2423 
17 
22 
20 
31 
33 
36 
22 
3 
6 
7 
9 
16 
8 8 
99 
9897 
96 
9494 
12 
9 
12 
15 
17 
1514 
21 
21 
21 
21 
181918 21 
15 
17 
5 4 
2 
5 
7 
3 
5 5 
Facebook Twitter YouTube Whats App Google+ Instagram Linkedin SnapChat MySpace Flickr 
8 
DATA SOURCE: OfCom Media Use and Attitudes Report 2014 
Figure 8: Frequency of site visits on mobile device, delta 2012-2013 
At least quarterly Less often 
34 
45 
6 
39 
5 
29 
2012 2013 
83 
66 
50 
42 
14 
3 
1 2 
1 
6 
7 
10 
2 
8 
11 
31 
22 
6 
16 
36 
5 
31 
8 
42 
6 
59 
51 
8 
43 
5 
74 
7 
67 
78 
2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 
Total Aged 16 – 24 Aged 25 – 34 Aged 35 – 44 Aged 45 – 54 Aged 55 – 64 Aged 65+ 
100% 
80% 
60% 
40% 
20% 
0% 
DATA SOURCE: OfCom Media Use and Attitudes Report 2014 
3.1 BANDWIDTH, CONNECTIVITY AND SPEED 
One of the most important thresholds in the media 
industry is therefore speed and other capabilities of 
mobile devices, and the rate at which they are in-creasing. 
Some are illustrated in Figure 6. Today’s 
smartphones have more computing power, higher-resolution 
displays and can handle greater bandwidth. 
This increases the possibility for end users to use their 
mobile devices for content generation. Technology 
companies will increase in importance within the me-dia 
industry as the way something is made and distrib-uted 
becomes just as important as the content and the 
medium it is transmitted across. 
As processing speeds continue to increase, it is likely 
that mobile devices will become editing tools as well 
as content creation devices. This gives the potential to 
deeply embed the end user in all aspects of content 
creation and production processes. Social media also 
enable end users to participate in the media distribu-tion 
processes. As these technologies and communi-cation 
methods become more commonplace, we can 
expect yet another reshaping of the structure of the 
media industry. The speeds and capacity of ICT will 
also have a flow-on effect to suppliers as the ability to 
provide content, in addition to connectivity, becomes a 
deciding factor for consumers: “internet subscriptions 
are increasingly being selected based on the content 
offered by the provider.” 25 
With high fixed and mobile broadband penetration 
rates, “the web has become a fully realized consumer 
medium where pages load in a flash and video plays 
without stuttering. With those pipes now built, we are 
in a time very similar to the early 1980s, when big cities 
were finally wired for cable. What followed was an 
explosion of new channels, many of which have 
become big businesses today.” 26 
25 Blankenhorn, D., 2014, AT&T wants what Comcast has and it’s not broadand wires, 
The Street, 23rd September 2014 
26 Carr, D., 2014, Ezra Klein Is Joining Vox Media as Web Journalism Asserts Itself, NY 
times, Jan 26, 2014 
16 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
3.2 
Consumption 
As important as ICT and the associated speeds and 
rates of change is the changing manner in which 
people consume media. For example, there has been 
a dramatic increase in the number of people using 
mobile devices to consume video and create content in 
addition to accessing social media: “Four in ten mo-bile 
users have used mobile phones to put photos or 
videos on sites like YouTube, while two-thirds (66%) of 
online adults say they have a current social networking 
site profile, unchanged since 2012 (64%)… Three in ten 
social networkers say they have a Twitter profile, and 
one in five say they have a YouTube (22%) or Whats- 
App profile (20%). Social networking overall remains a 
popular activity with 60% of users visiting sites more 
than once a day, an increase from 50% in 2012, and 
with 83% of 16-24s doing so (69% in 2012).” 27 
As discussed, an increasing number of non-English 
speakers are now accessing media industries via the 
internet. A key factor for increasing consumption is to 
make it available to more end users. Content and chan-nel 
providers may seek increased audiences through 
advances in translation: “within a few years, the Inter-net 
will offer simultaneous interpretation of audio and 
video, making all sorts of media content accessible to 
new audiences”.28 
27 Ofcom (2014) Adults’ Media Use and Attitudes Report. Research Document April 2014 28 Pfanner, E. (2013) Peering Into the Future of Media, NY Times, Oct 14, 2013 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 17
3.3 
Financing 
Funding for media has traditionally come from four 
main sources: 29 
> State aid 
> Advertising and sponsorship 
> Donations 
> Individual subscriptions 
All modes of finance create a sense of loyalty or binding 
to those providing the funding (even where any control 
over editorial freedom is expressly precluded in law) 
and can therefore influence coverage. According to 
Lowe & Berg (2013) 30 in an empirical study on European 
Union member countries, the four modes could be 
categorized as follows: 
> License fees 
> Direct subsidy 
> Subscription or pay-per view 
> Advertising 
Table 1: Regular Media Activities by Age: 2013 
Watch television 
Use a mobile phone 
Go online (via PC/laptop/ 
netbook/tablet 
Listen to the radio 
Read newspapers/magazines 
Watch videos/DVDs/Blu-rays 
Listen to music device/CD 
tape player 
Listen to portablemusic device/ 
MP3 player 
Play console/computer games 
Use a portable media player 
2013 
Total 16 – 24 25 – 34 35 – 44 45 – 54 55 – 64 65 – 74 75+ 
96% 
85% 
75% 
70% 
66% 
55% 
44% 
30% 
26% 
17% 
91% 
95% 
87% 
56% 
50% 
68% 
40% 
61% 
53% 
31% 
94% 
95% 
81% 
66% 
61% 
63% 
41% 
34% 
39% 
25% 
95% 
64% 
87% 
72% 
66% 
63% 
45% 
35% 
27% 
20% 
96% 
89% 
85% 
76% 
65% 
53% 
46% 
29% 
21% 
15% 
99% 
83% 
71% 
76% 
76% 
47% 
52% 
18% 
11% 
10% 
99% 
71% 
50% 
73% 
75% 
46% 
42% 
10% 
6% 
3% 
98% 
46% 
25% 
76% 
76% 
26% 
30% 
4% 
1% 
2% 
DATA SOURCE: OfCom Media Use and Attitudes Report 2014. 
Only license fee payments and subscription or pay-per 
services are transparent modes of funding. In countries 
with advertising-supported media or direct subsidy, 
defined here as allocation from general tax revenue 
as in the Netherlands and Spain, people cannot easily 
know how much their media system costs. 
This report focuses on funding for privately owned 
media companies, namely: 
1. Advertising 
2. Intellectual property and release windows 
3. Subscriptions 
29 Psychogiopoulou, E. (2014) Media Policies Revisited: The Challenge for Media 
Freedom and Independence. Palgrave McMillan UK. 
30 Lowe, G., Berg. C.E. (2013) The Funding of Public Service Media: A Matter of Value and 
Values International Journal on Media Management. 15(2) PP 77-97 
18 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
3.3.1 
Advertising 
The most common business model for both traditional 
and “digital” media has been advertising.31 For exam-ple, 
Universal backed a start-up, SpiralFrog, whose 
business model is based on allowing customers to 
download songs under copyright for free, with advertis-ing 
as the sole source of revenue. Google, meanwhile, 
has used advertising to develop perhaps the most 
successful model in the current digital economy. The 
value of TV advertising in the USA was estimated at 
US$74 billion by Standard & Poor’s in 2007 32, whereas 
subscription revenue streams were estimated at US$75 
billion by Standard & Poor’s in 2007. 33 
Advertising remains a key element in the business mod-els 
of media companies – it represents a fundamental 
link between private entities and consumers. As a con-sequence, 
advertising remains a vital revenue stream 
for media companies. Digital technologies create both 
new opportunities and challenges for the advertising 
model. Innovative tracking technologies enable detailed 
understanding of end users, paving the way for interac-tive 
communication. Technologies such as Siri, Apple’s 
voice-controlled assistant application could, for exam-ple, 
enable end users to “converse” with ads. 
Advertising revenues also face specific challenges in 
the new landscape, as audiences adopt digital video 
recording devices to access their preferred content at a 
time of their choosing. These devices allow audiences 
to eliminate advertising, and thus have the potential 
to affect advertising revenue streams. More than 50% 
of respondents in a survey about media habits indi-cated 
that removing commercials is very important, 
and almost 30% were willing to pay to remove them. 
Consumers also wanted the ability to opt in or out of 
advertising.34 
At the same time, such devices allow consumerori-ented 
companies to communicate with their customers 
and also develop deep understanding of aggregated 
demand for different content. 
In traditional advertising research, the main focus 
has been on consumer attitudes and behaviors.35 
This was also initially the case with online advertising 
research, which focused on issues such as attitudes 
and behaviors towards ads, medium reliability, product 
involvement and website context congruity. Over time, 
the focus in online advertising research has shifted to 
issues of advertising effectiveness, such as attention, 
displayed advertising formats and visual design is-sues. 
Online ad pricing is often based on placement, 
document arrangement, frequency and size. Other 
transaction-based measures to determine online ad 
effectiveness include click-through rates, registrations 
and purchases.36 
31 Sigismondi, P. (2011) The Digital Glocalization of Entertainment. New Paradigms in the 
21st Century Global Mediascape. Springer 
32 Amobi, T.N., Donald, W. (2007) Broadcasting, cable and satellite. Standard & Poor’s 
industry surveys. McGraw-Hill, New York 
33 ibid 
34 Ericsson Consumer Lab Report, TV and Media 2014 
35 Michailidou, E., Christoforou, C., Zaphiris. P. (2014) Towards Predicting Ad Effective-ness 
via an Eye Tracking Study. HCIB Springer International Publishing Switzerland 
36 ibid 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 19
3.3.2 
ICT and 
Cross-Media 
Advertising 
In the current digital media market, companies’ adver-tising 
strategies have moved from single media plat-form 
to cross-media advertising. Convergence within 
the media industry presents advertisers with complex 
challenges. Target groups are fragmented because 
of the enormous growth in media outlets. Consumers 
are less attentive because of media multitasking, and 
more selective because of interactive and “on demand” 
media options, making it easier than ever to avoid ad-vertising. 
It is therefore increasingly difficult for market-ers 
to reach their target groups and attract attention to 
their messages.37 
Cross-media advertising, where several different media 
are used to communicate related brand content, is one 
way advertisers have responded to these challenges. 
In cross-media campaigns, advertisers seek to maxi-mize 
the effectiveness of their budgets by exploiting the 
unique strengths of each medium and taking advantage 
of cross-media synergies:38 “Old media planning was 
about picking individual media. New media planning is 
about picking combinations of media.” One of the big-gest 
questions in cross-media advertising is how each 
medium can enhance the effect of the other media. 
The degree to which brands use different media in their 
campaigns varies. A study by Klausch et al. (2010) into 
the share and composition of 2,569 campaigns in the 
Netherlands showed that about 40% were cross-media 
campaigns. Around 33% of these campaigns used two 
media, 17% used three and 7% used four. The remain-der 
used more than four media. 
37 Voorveld, H., Smit, E., Neijens, P. (2013) Cross-media Advertising: Brand Promotion in 
an Age of Media Convergence. Media and Convergence Management. Springer 
38 ibid 
20 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
3.3.4 
Nature of 
Media Advertising 
in the Digital Era 
Media economist Robert Picard argued in 2003 that the 
traditional media needed to prepare for the ‘‘gradual 
erosion’’ of their financial base because of new media 
pressures and declining advertising revenue. In fact, 
newspaper advertising revenues have dropped by an 
estimated 23% over the last two years.39 The current 
economic climate is partly responsible for this decline, 
though Forrester Research predicts a long-term adver-tising 
shift toward social and interactive media.40 
According to Wagler (2013)41, more than US$ 119 
billion was spent on digital advertising in 2010. Spend-ing 
on interactive advertising is projected to near US$ 
77 billion by 2016, representing 35% of all advertis-ing 
in the USA. Interactive media is rapidly changing 
the media landscape and challenging the advertising 
industry to develop effective means of communication 
in a fragmented media environment. Advertising has a 
long history of working with traditional print, radio, and 
television. Agencies are now defining and exploring 
new approaches for creative applications using the vast 
number of interactive media channels now available. 
39 Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2009 
40 Kurpius, D., Metzgar, E.T., Rowley, K.M. (2010) SUSTAINING HYPERLOCAL MEDIA. 
Journalism Studies 11(3), PP 359-376 
41 Wagler, A. (2013) Embracing Change: Exploring How Creative Professionals use 
Interactive Media in Advertising Campaigns. Journal of Interactive Advertising 13(2) pp. 
118–127 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 21
3.4 
Intellectual 
Property 
In an analogue world, the exploitation of intellectual 
property under copyright stems from carefully planned 
distribution through subsequent, often exclusive, “re-lease 
windows”. These allow content owners to apply 
price discrimination across a variety of distribution 
mechanisms for content, e.g. film, DVD and broadcast 
TV. Digital technologies have the potential to disrupt 
this mechanism. 
Distribution via different digital platforms makes it 
possible to replicate the timing of release windows, 
from cinemas to free-TV networks. Digital distribution 
methods therefore provide a parallel shelf life for enter-tainment 
content, generating potentially new revenue 
streams. The timeframes for different media are out-lined 
in Table 2. 
Table 2: Release Window Timeframes – Adapted from Sigismondi 2011 42 
Distribution 
method 
Theatre 
Home 
entertainment 
VOD/PPV 
Pay-TV 
Free TV Network 
Timeframe 
Initial release, lasting 3 – 6 months 
3 – 6 months after theatre 
8 months after theatre release 
12 months after theatre release 
30 months after theatre release 
Subsequent 
windows 
Basic cable, Pay-TV 
and Free TV second window 
42 Sigismondi, P. (2011) The Digital Glocalization of Entertainment. New Paradigms 
in the 21st Century Global Mediascape. Springer 
The duration of release windows evolves over time. 
ICT allows new parallel distribution mechanisms and 
enables rapid distribution of pirated content. The cur-rent 
entertainment industry business model, based 
on release windows, is changing and may ultimately 
cease to exist as a result of ICT. In particular, view-ers 
often choose to watch larger portions of a series 
in one sitting,43 not one episode per week as was the 
tradition before streaming services. One survey found 
that: “although 77 percent of people watch scheduled 
broadcast TV, almost as many watch streamed video 
several times a week or more, at 75%. A lot of recorded 
and physical media viewing is shifting towards easy-to-use, 
convenient streaming, using on-demand services 
that allow cross-platform access to content”.44 
43 Media Vision 2020, Ericsson 
44 Ericsson Consumer Lab Report, 2014 
22 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
3.5 
Subscription 
Fees 
Other revenue streams for media and entertainment en-tities 
stem mainly from subscription fees collected from 
consumers, usually on a monthly or on-demand basis 
for entertainment content from different platforms. 
A mixed business model is often utilized, combining 
advertising revenues with subscription fees, as is often 
the case for cable or satellite TV channels. 
A 2006 survey of executives conducted by the Econo-mist 
Intelligence Unit within the IBM institute for Busi-ness 
Value revealed that on-demand subscription and 
entertainment content rental were deemed the most 
significant future revenue streams for telecom, network, 
and multiple system operators. Network executives 
believed advertising would still play a pivotal role. 
But there is another side to the story: “Studies also 
show a rise in ‘cord cutting’ — that is, cancellations 
of pay-TV subscriptions — by American households. 
Instead of watching scheduled channels, more people 
are using on-demand services like Netflix, or simply do-ing 
without TV, as they log longer hours on the Internet. 
Television, in other words, is starting to look more like 
the Internet, even as the Internet starts to look more like 
TV”.45 Content is now available anytime, anywhere. 
With regard to industrial structure, a number of different 
forms of finance are possible, including: 
> Reallocation, e.g. from traditional television 
to online, or from cinema to online distribution. 
> Role, e.g. whether the funder has control or interest 
in the content and how that control or interest is 
manifested. 
> Redistribution, e.g. consumer consumption pat-terns 
affect how media budgets are allocated. 
45 Pfanner, E., 2013, Peering Into the Future of Media, NY Times, Oct 14, 2013 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 23
3.6 
Regulatory 
Aspects 
The regulation of the media industry is extremely com-plex. 
This section provides a brief overview of some of 
the major issues facing the industry in the digital era. 
Due to convergence, the regulatory environment also 
affects competitiveness in addition to business models 
from different sectors. Regulations for different indus-tries 
affect the disintermediation or reintermediation 
prospects of not just companies and sectors, but entire 
regions. Google and other USA-based companies, for 
example, work under privacy laws that allow them to 
collect, collate and use data about individuals because 
they are regulated as IT companies. Telecommunica-tions 
providers, however, are unable to use their data 
in the same manner. A regulatory battle is therefore 
emerging between: 
1. Regions, e.g. the USA and the EU 
2. Sectors, e.g. telecommunications, IT and media 
regulation 
Communication laws and regulations have to be amend-ed 
in order to cope with converged services. Conver-gence 
is leading to the development of inter-industry 
segments within the media industry, as illustrated by the 
difficulties Google is currently facing in the EU regarding 
“the right to be forgotten”. Many in Europe view Google 
as a media company46, rather than solely a technology 
company. 
46 Duke, S., 2014, German giant who wants Google cut down to size. The Sunday Times, 
21/09/2014 
According to Liu (2013)47, US communication laws 
and regulations are applied according to a silo model 
(sector-specific regulation), while the EU has adopted 
a horizontal or layer model for regulations. While the 
impact of ICT is global, there are significant issues 
around how individuals, nations and regions define 
themselves and how they control and access media. 
In oligopolistic and monopolistic markets, where bar-gaining 
power is shifted towards manufacturers, bun-dling 
can become an abuse of market power due to 
the limited choices available to consumers. New ques-tions 
therefore emerge. Does Google’s dominance of 
search markets in Europe constitute a monopoly, and 
should anti-trust apply? Does Google’s use of filters 
and “bubbling” protect the interests of end users, or 
does it damage companies’ abilities to market them-selves 
properly if an algorithm downgrades their rank-ings 
or removes them altogether? At what point does 
an aggregator need anti-trust regulations? 
In addition, advertising regulations affect the forms of 
advertising adopted online as well as in the environ-ment 
of television and other media.48 A study found that 
the UK and China, for example, applied less regulation 
to some forms of advertising than Germany and the 
USA, and that advertising markets differed as a result. 
Against this, it was noted that there is increasing homo-geneity 
of regulation across markets, mainly because 
of the nature of technology and the global potential of 
online experiences.49 Regulation is therefore intimately 
linked to ICT in the media industry. 
47 Liu, Yu-Li. (2013). Convergence in the digital age. Telecommunications Policy, 37(8), 
61–614 
48 Esposito, M., Kennon, O., Mohammed, M. (2013) Brand Funded Media, MBus Thesis, 
Manchester Business School, 2013. 
49 ibid 
24 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
3.6 REGULATORY ASPECTS 
With increasing mobility and increasing access to con-tent 
via mobile devices, many customers now expect 
access to the same content while travelling as when 
at home. This also creates regulatory issues, such as 
the question of cross-border licenses for streaming 
services. Previously, when an end user purchased a 
music CD, they were able to take it with them and listen 
to it on a portable media device. Today, however, many 
streaming services are not available to roaming travel-ers. 
For example, a music subscription in one country 
may not work while visiting another. Within the EU, 
therefore, “record companies and authors’ collecting 
societies agreed to provide multi-territory “one-click 
micro-licenses” for small scale use of music online, 
which would make it much easier for those who wish 
to use music to do so with legal certainty on their own 
websites or when posting videos on other sites”. 50 
50 Euractiv, 2014, TV, film industry pledge easier cross-border copyright, euractiv.com 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 25
4. 
Industrial 
Disruption 
in Media 
Each of the thresholds presented in Section 3 is subject 
to adaptation and change. As a result of the disruptive 
elements of ICT over the past decade or so, the media 
industry has been reshaped. 
This process is continuing, however, and a “confluence 
of technical and economic changes is now altering the 
way we produce and exchange information, knowledge, 
and culture.” This is actually leading to new organiza-tional 
forms. Multiple value chains are emerging within 
the media industry that relate to: 
1. How power is distributed between economic actors 
2. How content is created and paid for 
3. How the media production and distribution 
elements are financed 
This section outlines three forms of media value 
chain that digital technologies have helped enable 
in the media industry: 
1. Authoritarian/Unilateral 
2. Entrepreneurial/Distributed 
3. Democratic/Inclusive 
These illustrate different roles that actors may play 
within the structures of the industry. 
The following descriptions present several views of how 
ICT may be applied for the development and distribution 
of media. ICT is solely an enabler of these organizational 
structures. They are presented here from both perspec-tives 
without value judgements. 
26 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
4.1 
Authoritarian 
/Unilateral 
“ With great power vast quantities of 
data comes great responsibility.” 
Eli Pariser 
This organizational structure first applied in the 1800s, 
most closely represents that of broadcast TV. Media 
that operate under the authoritarian model can be 
either privately or publicly owned. Until the 1850s, 
publishing presses in Europe were privately owned and 
the aristocracy – wanting control over what was printed 
about them – exercised financial and political power 
to regulate what could be printed. This model is still in 
operation in many countries today, where governments 
control what is printed and broadcast, and even who 
has access to the internet. It is a traditional model of 
media that in many economies has allowed groups of 
commercial interests to fund media through advertis-ing 
or sponsorship, but not to control content without 
formally changing the designation of that content, e.g. 
from a TV show to an advertisement (see Esposito et 
al., 2013). This is illustrated in Figure 9. 
Figure 9: Authoritarian/Unilateral 
Content Creation 
and Distribution 
The role of ICT within the media industry today raises 
some challenging questions about how algorithms may 
inadvertently create authoritarian-style or unilateral 
structures within the media industry. 
An example of this is the “filtering” or “filter bubbles” 52 
used by search and news engines. End user data is 
interpreted by an algorithm, and the engine presents 
information that it “thinks” is most relevant to each 
user. Information may be tailored to the user’s region, 
registered hobbies or job description. Examples of this 
exist today in Google’s search or Facebook’s selec-tive 
displaying of friends’ updates, in particular for their 
advertising requirements. 
52 Pariser, E. (2011) The Filter Bubble: What the internet is hiding from you, Penguin Books 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 27
4.1 AUTHORITARIAN/UNILATERAL 
Another example is Yahoo’s personalization algorithm, 
which generates 45,000 totally unique versions of the 
Today module every five minutes.53 This algorithm 
makes it four times as likely that an individual will click 
on a link compared with traditional online editorial 
processes. As an example, it “might decide to serve up 
a particular package to women in the 35-44 age range 
in Peoria, for example, but not to men in that same age 
range in Peoria, or women in the 21-24 age range in 
Seattle” 54. Yahoo is also implementing this algorithm 
in its news feed, which means it will have a degree of 
control over what news an end user is presented with, 
despite human editors being involved in the final selec-tion 
process for news feeds. 
There is no doubt that these types of filters make the 
internet more efficient and can help individuals and end 
users find the information they are looking for more 
quickly. However, it effectively provides a form of digi-tally 
enabled authoritarian control over the media indus-try. 
While it is currently used to direct people’s interest 
to articles they will find interesting, it could also be used 
to direct sentiment, e.g. regarding a war or a particular 
court case. The reason that this falls under the authori-tarian 
model is that it removes control from the end user 
– who may not even realize what has happened. 
53 Boyd, E., 2011, Brains and Bots Deep Inside Yahoo’s CORE grab a billion clicks, Fast 
Company, Aug. 1 2011 
54 ibid 
Therefore media corporations may be able to execute 
significant control over what an end user sees in their 
news feed. While it is unlikely that any of today’s search 
engines would execute authoritarian control over 
search results or adapt news sources, the possibility 
emerges due to the application of ICT. 
It is not only technology companies that may apply 
ICT to establish control over media content. Recent 
changes have been propagated in the online environ-ment 
where instead of maintaining only indirect control 
of content, commercial interests have sought to better 
control content or to take a larger stake in the value of 
media programming. For example, commercial brands 
have become investors in online programming such as 
drama productions and human interest and advisory 
shows, as well as taking stakes in app and game de-velopment. 
Several companies have even started their 
own news outlets, e.g. GE Reports55, which provides 
reports on science and innovation. 
55 GE Reports, available at: http://www.gereports.com/about 
28 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
4.2 
Entrepreneurial 
/Distributed 
The ICT revolution has placed cheap and powerful 
computational capacity into the hands of many people 
around the globe. An outcome of this is that the physi-cal 
capital for the creation and production of content is 
broadly distributed throughout society, as is the power 
over the creation, production and distribution of media. 
This is illustrated in Figure 10. Anyone who wishes to 
create and share his or her own content it is therefore 
able to do so – if not alone, then at least in cooperation 
with others.57 Networks of individuals can now work 
together to generate content for one another, increasing 
the role of non-market and non-proprietary production. 
“ The change brought about by the 
networked information environment 
is deep. It is structural. It goes to 
the very foundations of how liberal 
markets and liberal democracies 
have coevolved for almost two 
centuries.” 
Benkler, 2006 56 
Connector Node/Member 
Network Member 
Figure 10: Entrepreneurial/Distributed 
56 Benkler, Y. (2006) The Wealth of Networks, Yale University Press 57 ibid 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 29
4.2 ENTREPRENEURIAL/DISTRIBUTED 
YouTube is one example of this. Terrorist organizations 
are also able to utilize readily available ICT to cheaply 
and easily create and distribute content.58 McLuhan’s 
anticipated “global village” of contest and conflict has 
come true thanks to the availability of ICT. 59, 60 
One of the key aspects of this model is that it is often 
based on social networks. While anyone may be able 
to create and release content for distribution, the real 
power in such networks is with the “connector nodes” 
– people who can straddle the boundary between 
two or more networks and exercise influence over 
both. These connector nodes become very lucrative 
in a networked society, as they are the points at which 
networks can disseminate knowledge and content 
between one another. It is likely that advertisers will 
want to identify and understand these nodes in social 
networks because of the number of connections they 
have access to. These aspects of power are already 
58 Malik et al, 2014, Isis in duel with Twitter and YouTube to spread extremist propaganda, 
Guardian, 24th September 2014 
59 McLuhan, M. (1962) The Gutenberg galaxy: The making of typographic man, London: 
Routledge & Kegan Paul. 
60 McLuhan, M. (1964) Understanding media, New York: Signet Books. 
understood within the media industry, as can be seen 
in LinkedIn’s “Influencer” title or Klout’s Social media 
scores. These connector nodes provide dissemination 
points that will allow advertisers or content developers 
to quickly develop “market reach”. “ICT enables new 
forms of production and exchange based on these 
networks that will now co-exist and play a much larger 
role, alongside property- and market-based produc-tion, 
than they ever have in modern democracies.” 61 
As opposed to traditional mass media technologies 
such as TV, radio and print, new media is a disparate 
set of technological platforms that are deeply inter-woven 
into the social fabric of their user communities 
(be it YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest 
or a slew of others), giving rise to fundamentally and 
functionally distinct attention structures. As a result, a 
number of new types of media companies now classify 
their work as “digital journalism”. 
61 Pariser, E. (2011) The Filter Bubble: What the internet is hiding from you, Penguin Books 
30 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
4.3 
Democratic 
/Inclusive 
Perhaps the most commonly recognized and under-stood 
organizational structure of the digital media 
industry is the democratic/inclusive model. This covers 
the use of ICT, and in particular social media, to create 
two-way communication between the creators of infor-mation 
and the consumers. In order to exercise power 
within this sort of structure, input is required from as 
many people as possible so as to effectively represent 
the overall wishes of the population in question. This is 
illustrated in Figure 11. An example is Netflix, which 
uses information gathered from all of its end users in 
order to create content. 62, 63, 64 
The UK radio station BBC Radio 1 uses this organiza-tional 
structure effectively to help create its playlists. 
For example, during playlist creation meetings, “the 
Figure 11: Democratic Structure in Media 
Content Creation 
and Curation 
62 Ericsson, 2014 The Impact of Datafication on Strategic Landscapes 
63 Maull, R., Godsiff, P., Mulligan, C.E.A. “The Impact of Datafication on Service Sys-tems,” 
System Sciences (HICSS), 2014 47th Hawaii International Conference on, vol., 
no., pp.1193, 1201, 6-9 Jan. 2014 
64 Lycett, M. (2013) ‘Datafication’: making sense of (big) data in a complex world. EJIS 
22(4): 381-386 (2013) 
artist’s YouTube views, Soundcloud hits, Shazam rat-ings, 
Twitter followers and Facebook likes” are tallied 
as an important input from the target audience.65 This 
is combined with traditional market research: “we’ve 
got a panel of thousands of young people from the age 
of 12 to 29 in our overall research group, and we pay a 
research company to test 400 of them every week.” 
To some extent, this is a response to the younger gen-eration’s 
methods of connecting with content – which is 
heavily digital and smartphone-based. Radio 1 is there-fore 
augmenting its traditional broadcasts with a You- 
Tube channel and a BBC iPlayer channel, which allows 
it to get more detailed information about which songs 
and bands generate most interest among listeners. 
These types of initiatives by media and content 
companies cause another shift in the power distribution 
of the music industry: “the internet has diminished the 
power of pluggers in favor of stats about an artist’s 
online popularity. There’s more music out there than 
there’s ever been because it’s cheaper to produce and 
distribute.” 66 The result is that it becomes the artist’s 
responsibility, rather then the record label’s, to develop 
a digital media following through channels such as 
YouTube and Twitter. 
One outcome of this form of organizational structure 
is the development of multi-channel networks (MCNs), 
“which function as new media’s answer to Hollywood 
studios, giving independent creators a host of market-ing, 
growth, and other business offerings in exchange 
for a percentage of their advertising revenue”. 67 
65 Khomami, N. (2014) Radio 1’s playlist 
66 Khomami, N. (2014) Radio 1’s playlist secrets uncovered: the battle of the ‘brands’, 
The Observer, 25 May 2014 
67 http://www.buzzfeed.com/hillaryreinsberg/old-media-is-buying-up-the-biggest-you-tube- 
networks?utm_term=4ldqpia#vgjop8 
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 31
5. 
Conclusions 
The media industry is one of the fastest-changing and 
most dynamic industries in the world. The industry’s 
experiences of the convergence of technology, business 
models and regulation predict the likely impact of ICT 
on many other industries. Media has often acted as an 
early indicator of how industries will adapt to changes in 
consumer behavior resulting from new technologies. 
Early ICT adoption by the media industry focused 
on productivity and efficiency improvements for well-established 
processes and a well-defined value chain, 
with an understood distribution of costs and profits. 
As technologies have converged, bringing new ways 
to create, produce and distribute content, the industry 
has had to adapt to rapid changes in end users’ tastes 
and preferred access methods. And whereas end users 
have long been accustomed to a relatively stable selec-tion 
of media outlets — film, TV, DVD, radio — they now 
have access to a vast range of media and a plethora of 
devices on which to access them. 
UGC is now well established even within video creation 
as cheaper bandwidth and higher processing capacity 
in mobile devices means that many more of life’s mo-ments 
can be captured and shared with others. 
The media industry and the mobile communications 
and technology industries are now closely intertwined, 
reinforcing the fundamental role of ICT. It is not possible 
to discuss the media industry without discussing the 
impact of ICT. 
At the same time, ICT creates new possibilities for 
redistribution of power across the media industry. End 
users have access to powerful technology that enables 
them to create networks for creation and distribution 
of content. These networks often have global reach 
and utilize social media outlets as distribution mecha-nisms. 
ICT has virtually removed the entry barriers to 
the media industry. However, a key issue for the digital 
media industry is to improve the quality and reliability 
of information within such networks. 
An important development within the media industry 
has been the creation of aggregators – websites or 
software that pull together different types of informa-tion 
and content for end users. These them to create 
their own bundles instead of relying on a company to 
do it for them. 
ICT has already contributed to the evolution of three 
organizational forms – Authoritarian/Unilateral, Entre-preneurial/ 
Distributed and Democratic/Inclusive. These 
represent different ways that ICT has been applied 
within the media industry to exercise power over con-tent 
and distribution. The application of ICT in such a 
broad variety of forms perhaps reflects the complexity 
of humanity and our increasing interdependence in a 
rapidly changing world. 
32 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 33

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Horizon Scan: ICT and the Future of Media

  • 1. Networked Society Lab ICT & the future of Media Industry Transformation – Horizon scan Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 1
  • 2. Structure of this Report Series This report is one in a series of seven investigating industrial transformation in the Networked Society. The impact of technology on our everyday lives and economic interactions is undeniable. In conjunc-tion with megatrends such as globalization, climate change, urbanization and aging populations, ICT is helping to transform our society and the economic structures that have formed the basis of industries since the industrial revolution. Digital technologies allow new organizational forms to emerge within and outside of industrial boundaries, thereby challenging our traditional notions of economic organization in markets. Where once size was an important driver of success, now many smaller com-panies are able to compete both locally and globally. Where firm, strongly defined boundaries and clearly defined economic roles were necessary, now the abil-ity to dynamically participate in a variety of networks is key to a resilient corporate strategy. ICT is transform-ing the rules of our world’s economic value systems, and industries are being transformed as a result. It is not possible to provide a deep dive into every industry covered within this series. Instead each report investigates the role of ICT in creating productivity improvements and industrial disruption with a view to gaining a broad perspective on the overall transforma-tion the world is undergoing. Six industries are inves-tigated and across them general themes are identified that form the basis of the final report, the “Economics of the Networked Society”, which outlines some of the broad economic principles that may help us under-stand the era we are entering. These reports represent the culmination of several years’ work investigating the changing economic structures of the world in the digital age. We hope our small contribution helps to further not just the vision of a Networked Society, but also its implementation – a society where dynamic, digitally enabled strategic networks allow us to build an economically, environ-mentally and socially sustainable world. 2 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 3. Method The reports in this series are developed using systems analysis to identify the operating boundaries of each industrial structure. Through analyzing the boundaries and their associated thresholds, a stronger understand-ing of capacity for change within an industry is possible to achieve. This method combines systems analysis with traditional measurement methods as well as ex-tensive interviews across various parts of an industry’s value chain in order to try and understand the possible emergent characteristics of industrial structures and the role that digital technologies may play in creating innovation, disruptive or otherwise. Many boundaries may be affected by a number of different aspects. Within these reports, however, we focus solely on how these thresholds can be adapted by ICT. Each report outlines the following: 1. The industrial boundaries and associated thresholds 2. The role of data within those boundaries and the emerging information value chains 3. An overview of the industrial archetypes / organizational forms of start-ups in the industry Each of these industrial analyses has then been further analyzed to understand the emerging characteristics of the Networked Society, which is covered in the final report. For further information on the method, contact Dr Catherine Mulligan: c.mulligan@imperial.ac.uk Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 3
  • 4. ICT & THE FUTURE OF MEDIA TABLE OF CONTENTS Structure of this Report Series 2 Method 3 Scope of the Report 5 Executive Summary 6 1. Introduction 7 2. Industrial Structure of the Media Industry 9 2.1 Value Chain of the Traditional Media Industry 10 2.2 Impact of Digital on Media Value Chains 11 2.3 Intermediaries and Aggregation 12 3. Media Industry Thresholds 13 3.1 Bandwidth, Connectivity and Speed 14 3.2 Consumption 17 3.3 Financing 18 3.3.1 Advertising 19 3.3.2 ICT and Cross-Media Advertising 20 3.3.4 Nature of Media Advertising in the Digital Era 21 3.4 Intellectual Property 22 3.5 Subscription Fees 23 3.6 Regulatory Aspects 24 4. Industrial Disruption in Media 26 4.1 Authoritarian /Unilateral 27 4.2 Entrepreneurial/Distributed 29 4.3 Democratic/Inclusive 31 5. Conclusions 32 4 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 5. ICT & THE FUTURE OF MEDIA Scope of the report The media industry covers an extremely broad range of sectors, including: > Film > Television > Music > Print > Computer games > Advertising and marketing > Interactive media > Press and radio This report focuses on film, television and music, with some references to the application of social media within these contexts. In addition, due to convergence of cable, mobile and transmission technologies over the Internet Protocol, the pattern of transmission and content distribution is shifting. Smartphones, tablets and a variety of other devices are enabling end users to access content on demand and in the format that they wish to receive it. At the same time, a broad variety of industrial struc-tures are active in media from public service, which is financed by governments; independents, which are often a handful of people creating niche products for specialist markets; multinationals, e.g. BskyB, which delivers Sky Sports across the globe; and media conglomerates that provide some of the larger-scale services across the globe, e.g. Bertelsmann, which operates in over 50 countries and owns multiple TV and radio stations across the EU. All of this adds to the complexity of the media industry. For the purposes of this report, we focus on private companies and the as-sociated and intellectual property protection, with some refer-ence to public service. This report focuses on the role of ICT in reforming and disrupting the industrial structure, specifically how content is created, delivered and distributed to end us-ers. The report therefore has a consumer-centric, rather than a supplier-centric perspective on the industry. AUTHORS Dr C.E.A. Mulligan, Research Fellow, Imperial College London Dr Zeynep Gurguc, Research Associated, Imperial College London Sohrab Mosiri, Manchester Business School business models of advertising, subscriptions DISCLAIMER All care has been taken in the preparation of this document, but no responsibility will be taken for decisions made on the basis of its contents. 1 IPCC (2007) Intergovernmental panel on climate change, Working Group III, Report May 2007. Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 5
  • 6. Executive summary Perhaps more than any other industry, media typifies modern society and culture. It connects commerce with audiences, relates world events to households, cre-ates celebrity, and defines the cutting-edge. Access to smartphones and tablets has affected not just consump-tion patterns, but also the ability to participate in content creation. Social media have created opportunities for consumers to participate in all aspects of the media value chain. Many substantial brands have been eroded or collapsed, while others have emerged as new cham-pions of the digital era. Content creators, media compa-nies and distribution companies alike need to adopt agile strategies and exploit innovative business models in order to survive in this competitive and growing market. The media industry is still undergoing dramatic changes. The amount of available content is increasing, and more people can access it due to the proliferation of mobile broadband, digital TV and IP transmission technologies. The way in which media is created and consumed is also changing due to the use of digital technologies and the emergence of “prosumers” who often work together across networks to create content. This report provides an overview of the drivers of change within the media industry. It is evident that the media industry is still changing rapidly and fundamen-tally. New patterns of convergence and new alliances and configurations across the media supply chain will bring greater innovation to media, in terms both of products and services adopted by the consumer, and how the industry is configured to provide them. The report outlines three main organizational arche-types for media production within the Networked Society – Unilateral/Authoritarian, Entrepreneurial/ Distributed and Democratic/Inclusive. Each of these has different advertising, distribution and content development models. The report concludes with a pro-jection of what might come next in the media industry. 6 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 7. 1. Introduction “ In 1472 the best university library in the world, at Queen’s college in Cambridge, housed 199 books.” Davenport & Beck, 20011 Media is currently undergoing a series of dramatic transformations as the traditional power structures in the industry are challenged by digital technolo-gies. New forms of content creation have long been understood as potentially disruptive elements, with user-generated content (UGC) proliferating in many different forms, from podcasts to blog posts and YouTube videos creating critical mass, or going “viral”, challenging the established content creation methods of large studios and television channels. UGC has also challenged the dominance of American culture around the world, as people of all cultures and languages are able to create content relatively cheaply. This trend will only continue with the obvious need to create content for and by the emerging BRIC markets2. UGC is just the start of these transformations, however, as digital technologies allow new forms of power dis-tribution to emerge for the media industry. Prior to the advent of cheap and ubiquitous ICT, the costs of media production and distribution were much higher. Indus-tries were formed around the management and exploi-tation of these costs, and the newspaper, television, film and music industries of the late 20th century flourished on high sales, high-paid stars and many forms of adver-tising. Much of the common culture of these decades was set by the actions of these industries. It is argu-able that mass media had a significant role in defining society as we knew it. Expensive production combined with expensive PR, marketing and distribution. This created extremely high barriers to entry for anyone wishing to enter this market. For example, it would cost at least US$200 million to create a cable network, or US$50 million for a national magazine3, leading to the development of extremely large, well coordinated media production corporations dominating the media industry. In the USA, these included the Washington Post, NBC, 20th Century Fox and CBS, among other large corpora-tions. Products that were profitable for these compa-nies dictated popular culture. Today, ICT has dramatically lowered the barriers to entry, enabling users to challenge dominant culture and exposure to advertising. As a result, the overall media industry is facing a significant battle between old and new models. While the truly digital media industry is still emerging, many of the newly formed companies are the emerging corporations and conglomerates of the future media industry as it reforms itself in response to the digital challenge. 1 Davenport, T. H., & Beck, J. C. (2001), The attention economy: Understanding the new currency of business, Boston: Harvard Business School Press. 2 Media Vision, 2020, Ericsson 3 Carr, D., 2014, Ezra Klein Is Joining Vox Media as Web Journalism Asserts Itself, NY times, Jan 26, 2014 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 7
  • 8. 1. INTRODUCTION The blurring of the boundaries between technology and broadcasting, combined with the growing number of broadcast platforms, creates new opportunities to engage audiences and increase revenues. It is there-fore important to understand the implementation and monetization of content enabled by digital structures and the current economic structure.4 The internet economy has also acted as a catalyst of economic growth, creating jobs and increasing com-petitiveness in particular for media. BCG estimates that it should contribute to a total of US$4.2 trillion to the G-20’s total GDP in 2016. This internet economy also includes the media content industries, which employ 10.8 million people in the EU27. Average annual growth rates for media content industries are higher than the overall growth rates in the EU. The internet is grow- 4 The Future of Media Conference (2014) http://www.salford.ac.uk/spd/coursedetails?cou rseid=THEFUTby85 ing and diversifying geographically, and the number of internet users is expected to increase from 2 billion to 5 billion by the end of the decade. Internet users already spend 20–30% of their time online, mainly engaging with media content. The media sector thus differs significantly from other sectors and requires ap-propriate policy making and regulation. In Europe, free media is often considered a part of, and a prerequisite for, democracy and quality of life.5 The UK’s creative industries are currently worth more than GBP 36 billion per year. They generate GBP 70,000 every minute for the UK economy and employ 1.5 million people in the UK. These industries account for around 10% of UK export revenue.6 5 EU Media Futures Forum Final Report (2012) http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/sites/ digital-agenda/files/forum_final_report_en.pdf 6 EU Media Futures Forum Final Report (2012) http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/sites/ digital-agenda/files/forum_final_report_en.pdf 8 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 9. 2. Industrial Structure of the Media Industry According to the Institute for Media and Communica-tions Policy 7, media corporations have bigger budgets than some nation states. As agents and moderators of globalization, they have economic and opinion-shaping power. Technological progress and growing competi-tion force media corporations to expand their busi-nesses both nationally and internationally. Globalization, deregulation, technological innovation and the convergence of previously separate industries such as media, entertainment, information, and con-sumer electronics, have created a somewhat turbulent media landscape8. As certain technological thresholds have been crossed, industries that were previously separate now intermingle, creating a new industrial structure comprised of adjacent companies that must compete and collaborate despite having fundamentally different business models and industrial cultures.9 The boundaries of several industries are shifting and merg-ing together, and the segments are fighting to become “primary gateways for content access, navigation and provision”.10 As a consequence, many incumbent media companies experience severe challenges, as content proliferates, audience behaviors change, advertising revenue erodes, and new competitors emerge. Some competitors come from adjacent industries that have significant cash reserves and R&D resources. Others are tiny start-ups that may grow into a larger threat to established players. The newspaper industry is a prime example, with readers moving to online news and ad-vertising revenue following.11 Cheap, ubiquitous ICT is eroding the benefits of scale for traditional media companies as cost savings gen-erated from centralized production and distribution decline. Media firms operating in this rapidly chang-ing environment have to adapt quickly to create or to sustain their competitive advantage. For profit-oriented entities such as media and entertainment companies, the central question is how to create, deliver and cap-ture value in the evolving landscape shaped by the ICT revolution. Sections 2.1 and 2.2 investigate the changes to the media value chain so far. Section 4 analyzes the emerging value chains. 7 Media Data Base - International Media Corporations 2014, medialab.eu/en.html 8 Kranenburg, H.V., Ziggers, G.W. (2013) How Media Companies Should Create Value: Innovation Centered Business Models and Dynamic Capabilities. Handbook of Social Media Management. Springer. 9 EU Commission, 2012, The Digital Shift in the Media and Content Industries: Policy Brief 10 ibid 11 Duke, S., 2014, German giant who wants Google cut down to size. The Sunday Times, 21/09/2014 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 9
  • 10. 2.1 Value Chain of the Traditional Media Industry Traditionally, from a consumer’s perspective, the value proposition of the media industry comprises the medium itself, as well as the product or service.12 A simplified traditional value chain can be comprised of creation, production and distribution of content, as illustrated in Figure 1. The traditional value chain was linear – content was created, e.g. a photographer took a photo or a journal-ist wrote an article, creating a “first module copy” that involved a significant amount of effort and cost. During the production phase, bundling occurred, which placed different content together to create the final market-ready product, e.g. a newspaper or a radio playlist. The distribution phase included everything related to the distribution of content to consumers, which traditionally required large infrastructure investments in the case of TV and cable networks, or complex logistics operations for music and newspapers to deliver the physical con-tent to consumers: “Movies made money from tickets. Bands made money from physical albums. Transactions took place between hands or across a register. The business model was a simple point of contact: Drive consumers through the doors”. 13 Incumbents in the media industry originally applied ICT in order to increase efficiency in these processes, particularly with regard to bundling content. For more than 150 years, “new communications technologies have tended to concentrate and commercialize the production and exchange of information, while extend-ing the geographic and social reach of information distribution networks”.14 With the development of the internet, however, this concentration of power could be challenged and new organizational forms for informa-tion and entertainment could emerge. This is covered in more detail in Section 4. It is well understood that digital technologies have affected the marginal costs of distribution within the media industry. Once created, content in digital format can be reproduced at very little cost and instantly “shipped” to consumers over the internet. The internet has not just led to an acceleration of the distribution process, it has also led to a convergence of media, as different media types (e.g., movies, music and print) can now be distributed and consumed via the internet and across multiple devices. ICT has therefore played a significant role in shaping a new value chain. This is covered in the next section. Figure 1: Traditional Media Industry Value Chain Creation Production Distribution Viewers 12 Hess, T., Matt, C. (2013). The Internet and the Value Chains of the Media Industry. Media and Convergence Management. Springer 13 Thompson, D., 2014, The Future of Media will be Streamed, The Atlantic, April 10th 2014 14 Benkler, Y., 2006, The Wealth of Networks, Yale University Press 10 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 11. 2.2 Impact of Digital on Media Value Chains Due to social media and other digital communication channels, media companies can actively integrate con-sumers into their value creation processes. This allows them to exploit consumers’ potential (usually at a very low cost or even for free) to create additional value. In the case of media companies, the integration can occur at any of the three stages of the traditional value chain: content creation, bundling and distribution.15 This is illustrated in Figure 2. Increased usage of ICT has led to a complex and dy-namic process of “disintermediation”, as producers are able to generate direct sales and creators can directly distribute their work online. Telecom and IT players, meanwhile, create a move towards “re-intermediation”, allowing smaller companies that may not have large marketing budgets to participate in the market.16 The most obvious examples are new forms of digitally enabled intermediaries, such as Spotify and Apple iTunes. Through access to closed digital music plat-forms, they have captured part of the market traditionally held by record companies. In particular, these platforms allow end users to create their own “bundles” of music. New aggregators enable TV consumers to decide what they want to watch and pick-and-mix their own services. Around 50% of consumers prefer this approach to the traditional TV bundles.17 “This is leading to the evolution toward a service model, where the consumer is buying a service which happens to be linked to editorial content, rather than buying a media product per se.” 18 e.g. GoPro and social interaction with traditional medium Editing UCG Figure 2: ICT and Current Media Value Chain Creation Production Distribution Prosumers Social networks 15 ibid 16 EU Commission, 2012, The Digital Shift in the Media and Content Industries: Policy Brief 17 Ericsson Consumer Lab Report, 2014 18 EU Commission, 2012, The Digital Shift in the Media and Content Industries: Policy Brief Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 11
  • 12. 2.3 Intermediaries and Aggregation New digital technologies have also helped create new media aggregators, such as GoPro, which allows end users to capture video and share it via the internet. Go- Pro sees itself as a media company as well as a hard-ware company. “On the GoPro channel on YouTube, videos average about half a million viewers each.” 19 GoPro is therefore attempting to act as an intermediary for the large number of professional and amateur users of its equipment that tag their videos with “GoPro”. The company often selects videos and edits them to create a product that is more relevant for a particular market. For those engaged in activities such as adven-ture sports, The possibility of payment has also meant a change in the experience of performing tricks and stunts: recording and sharing them has become a deeply embedded part of the experience itself. “ When the agony of missing the shot trumps the joy of the experience worth shooting, the adventure athlete (climber, surfer, extreme skier) reveals himself to be something else: a filmmaker, a brand, a vessel for the creation of content. He used to just do the thing—plan the killer trip or trick and then complete it, with panache. Maybe a photographer or film crew tagged along … Now the purpose of the trip or trick is the record of it. Life is footage.” 20 As is often the case with media technologies, GoPro was the result of a confluence of different technolo-gies reaching critical mass at the same time – small enough camera technology met waterproofing and high speed broadband. As will be discussed in Section 3, increases in technical speeds and capacities now have a direct impact on the media industry itself and the con-nections between different parts of the value chain. The fact that media and content are now often purely digital products, rather than a combination of digital and physi-cal, means that ICT has a fundamental role in the media industry that it does not have in many others. The role of ICT in the media industry continues to evolve. Sec-tion 3 covers some of the main thresholds of the media industry in the digital age. Rather than the simplistic notions of disintermediation or re-intermediation, the media industry is experiencing a two-fold interaction between: 1. The reallocation of costs across the industrial structure. Some costs are disappearing, e.g. physi-cal transportation. Some remain unaffected, e.g. editing. And others are being introduced, e.g. soft-ware security and digital rights management.21 2. The increasing importance of non-market and non-proprietary content production22 through the creation of dynamic strategic networks across well-established internet technologies. Section 4 presents three organizational archetypes in media that emerge due to the interaction of ICT with the different parts of the media value chain, as the business models that have dominated the media and entertain-ment industry over the past four decades are challenged by new methods of creation, production and distribution. 19 Paumgarten, N., 2014, We are a Camera: Experience and Memory in the age of GoPro, New Yorker, September 22nd, 2014 20 ibid 21 EU Commission, 2012, The Digital Shift in the Media and Content Industries: Policy Brief 22 Benkler, Y., 2006, The Wealth of Networks, Yale University Press 12 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 13. 3. Media Industry Thresholds This section provides an overview of the main thresh-olds in the media industry. Due to space limitations, we have focused on those that are appropriate and ap-plicable in global markets. Industrial boundaries help define how economic actors are able to interact with one another within an industrial structure.23 Thresholds are associated with those boundaries, and once par-ticular levels are crossed, the entire industrial structure could be completely reformed, creating space for new entrants and redefining the role of all economic actors within it. This section presents three main thresholds. Section 4 illustrates how these allow new organizational struc-tures to form and compete with one another: 1. Bandwidth, connectivity and speed: Media is now directly linked to ICT and its associated technical capacities. 2. Media consumption patterns: The manner in which media is consumed by end users is increasingly important for the industrial structure, and can rap-idly change it. 3. Financing mechanisms: How the industry receives funding and pays for content reflects how much money is available for content creation. 23 Mulligan, C.E.A., 2011, The Communications Industries in the Era of Convergence, Routledge Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 13
  • 14. 3.1 Bandwidth, Connectivity and Speed The role that mobile connectivity now plays in the media industry – and society as a whole – cannot be under-stated. Mobile connectivity has increased dramatically around the world over the past decade. It is predicted that there will be 9.2 billion active mobile subscriptions by 2019, illustrated in Figure 3. 2.6 billion of these will be on LTE networks, providing high-speed and seamless video access for end users, illustrated in Figures 4 and 5. The majority of that traffic will be video, as illustrated in Figure 5. While connectivity provides an illustration of how many people can access the internet, a closely re-lated threshold is bandwidth. Bandwidth can be under-stood as the total distribution capability of the industry, but is more commonly understood as the data capabil-ity of online mechanisms. Bandwidth in the context of media is split into uplink and downlink: > Downlink speeds are closely related to the types of content an end user will consume while using their mobile device. > Uplink speeds relate to how end users are able to contribute content and the distribution network forms they are able to connect to. Both of these thresholds are heavily dependent on subscription pricing. Figure 3: Fixed and mobile subscriptions 2010–2019 Figure 4: Mobile subscriptions by technology. Source: Ericsson Mobile subscriptions Mobile broadband subscriptions Fixed broadband subscriptions Mobile PCs, tablets and mobile router subscriptions SUBSCRIPTIONS/LINES (BILLION) Fixed and Mobile subscriptions 2010 – 2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Mobile subscriptions by technology 2010 – 2019 6.7 billion mobile subscriptions 9.2 billion mobile subscriptions LTE/HSPA/GSM and LTE/CDMA HSPA/GSM GSM/EDGE - only TD-SCDMA/GSM CDMA - only M2M subscriptions not included MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS (BILLION) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 14 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 15. In 2013, video accounted for ~40% of mobile traffic Segment File sharing Video 3.1 BANDWIDTH, CONNECTIVITY AND SPEED Social networking accounted for more than 10% of mobile data traffic in 2013 and will have the same share in 2019 Audio Web browsing Social networking Software download and update Other encrypted Other Mobile application traffic outlook 2013 and 2019 2019 2013 Figure 5: Mobile Application Traffic Outlook 2013 and 2018 The continued drive towards mobility will have an impact on the media industry as customers become increasingly demanding about accessibility of content on a variety of devices over a variety of access network technologies. For example, consumers will expect to access the same content and media streams irrespec-tive of whether they are using radio, cable or fixed net-work technology, and they will want the switchover to be seamless. Consumers increasingly expect the same content to be accessible whether they are watching a TV, a laptop or “on the go”. They also expect to be able to move media between these devices as they move around, which places increasing pressure on network media solutions to manage handovers effectively.24 24 Ericsson Consumer Lab Report, 2014 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 15
  • 16. Display pixels (’000) App processor (Giga-operations per second) Modern downlink bitrate (Mbps) Figure 6: Increases in Mobile Device Capabilities Increases in mobile device capabilities 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1,000 100 10 1 0,1 0,01 Figure 7: Social networking sites or apps used by those with a current social networking profile by age: 2013 Total Aged 16 – 24 Aged 25 – 34 Aged 35 – 44 Aged 45 – 54 Aged 55+ 14 4 6 2 1 4 5 6 9 42 29 28 2423 17 22 20 31 33 36 22 3 6 7 9 16 8 8 99 9897 96 9494 12 9 12 15 17 1514 21 21 21 21 181918 21 15 17 5 4 2 5 7 3 5 5 Facebook Twitter YouTube Whats App Google+ Instagram Linkedin SnapChat MySpace Flickr 8 DATA SOURCE: OfCom Media Use and Attitudes Report 2014 Figure 8: Frequency of site visits on mobile device, delta 2012-2013 At least quarterly Less often 34 45 6 39 5 29 2012 2013 83 66 50 42 14 3 1 2 1 6 7 10 2 8 11 31 22 6 16 36 5 31 8 42 6 59 51 8 43 5 74 7 67 78 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 Total Aged 16 – 24 Aged 25 – 34 Aged 35 – 44 Aged 45 – 54 Aged 55 – 64 Aged 65+ 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% DATA SOURCE: OfCom Media Use and Attitudes Report 2014 3.1 BANDWIDTH, CONNECTIVITY AND SPEED One of the most important thresholds in the media industry is therefore speed and other capabilities of mobile devices, and the rate at which they are in-creasing. Some are illustrated in Figure 6. Today’s smartphones have more computing power, higher-resolution displays and can handle greater bandwidth. This increases the possibility for end users to use their mobile devices for content generation. Technology companies will increase in importance within the me-dia industry as the way something is made and distrib-uted becomes just as important as the content and the medium it is transmitted across. As processing speeds continue to increase, it is likely that mobile devices will become editing tools as well as content creation devices. This gives the potential to deeply embed the end user in all aspects of content creation and production processes. Social media also enable end users to participate in the media distribu-tion processes. As these technologies and communi-cation methods become more commonplace, we can expect yet another reshaping of the structure of the media industry. The speeds and capacity of ICT will also have a flow-on effect to suppliers as the ability to provide content, in addition to connectivity, becomes a deciding factor for consumers: “internet subscriptions are increasingly being selected based on the content offered by the provider.” 25 With high fixed and mobile broadband penetration rates, “the web has become a fully realized consumer medium where pages load in a flash and video plays without stuttering. With those pipes now built, we are in a time very similar to the early 1980s, when big cities were finally wired for cable. What followed was an explosion of new channels, many of which have become big businesses today.” 26 25 Blankenhorn, D., 2014, AT&T wants what Comcast has and it’s not broadand wires, The Street, 23rd September 2014 26 Carr, D., 2014, Ezra Klein Is Joining Vox Media as Web Journalism Asserts Itself, NY times, Jan 26, 2014 16 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 17. 3.2 Consumption As important as ICT and the associated speeds and rates of change is the changing manner in which people consume media. For example, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of people using mobile devices to consume video and create content in addition to accessing social media: “Four in ten mo-bile users have used mobile phones to put photos or videos on sites like YouTube, while two-thirds (66%) of online adults say they have a current social networking site profile, unchanged since 2012 (64%)… Three in ten social networkers say they have a Twitter profile, and one in five say they have a YouTube (22%) or Whats- App profile (20%). Social networking overall remains a popular activity with 60% of users visiting sites more than once a day, an increase from 50% in 2012, and with 83% of 16-24s doing so (69% in 2012).” 27 As discussed, an increasing number of non-English speakers are now accessing media industries via the internet. A key factor for increasing consumption is to make it available to more end users. Content and chan-nel providers may seek increased audiences through advances in translation: “within a few years, the Inter-net will offer simultaneous interpretation of audio and video, making all sorts of media content accessible to new audiences”.28 27 Ofcom (2014) Adults’ Media Use and Attitudes Report. Research Document April 2014 28 Pfanner, E. (2013) Peering Into the Future of Media, NY Times, Oct 14, 2013 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 17
  • 18. 3.3 Financing Funding for media has traditionally come from four main sources: 29 > State aid > Advertising and sponsorship > Donations > Individual subscriptions All modes of finance create a sense of loyalty or binding to those providing the funding (even where any control over editorial freedom is expressly precluded in law) and can therefore influence coverage. According to Lowe & Berg (2013) 30 in an empirical study on European Union member countries, the four modes could be categorized as follows: > License fees > Direct subsidy > Subscription or pay-per view > Advertising Table 1: Regular Media Activities by Age: 2013 Watch television Use a mobile phone Go online (via PC/laptop/ netbook/tablet Listen to the radio Read newspapers/magazines Watch videos/DVDs/Blu-rays Listen to music device/CD tape player Listen to portablemusic device/ MP3 player Play console/computer games Use a portable media player 2013 Total 16 – 24 25 – 34 35 – 44 45 – 54 55 – 64 65 – 74 75+ 96% 85% 75% 70% 66% 55% 44% 30% 26% 17% 91% 95% 87% 56% 50% 68% 40% 61% 53% 31% 94% 95% 81% 66% 61% 63% 41% 34% 39% 25% 95% 64% 87% 72% 66% 63% 45% 35% 27% 20% 96% 89% 85% 76% 65% 53% 46% 29% 21% 15% 99% 83% 71% 76% 76% 47% 52% 18% 11% 10% 99% 71% 50% 73% 75% 46% 42% 10% 6% 3% 98% 46% 25% 76% 76% 26% 30% 4% 1% 2% DATA SOURCE: OfCom Media Use and Attitudes Report 2014. Only license fee payments and subscription or pay-per services are transparent modes of funding. In countries with advertising-supported media or direct subsidy, defined here as allocation from general tax revenue as in the Netherlands and Spain, people cannot easily know how much their media system costs. This report focuses on funding for privately owned media companies, namely: 1. Advertising 2. Intellectual property and release windows 3. Subscriptions 29 Psychogiopoulou, E. (2014) Media Policies Revisited: The Challenge for Media Freedom and Independence. Palgrave McMillan UK. 30 Lowe, G., Berg. C.E. (2013) The Funding of Public Service Media: A Matter of Value and Values International Journal on Media Management. 15(2) PP 77-97 18 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 19. 3.3.1 Advertising The most common business model for both traditional and “digital” media has been advertising.31 For exam-ple, Universal backed a start-up, SpiralFrog, whose business model is based on allowing customers to download songs under copyright for free, with advertis-ing as the sole source of revenue. Google, meanwhile, has used advertising to develop perhaps the most successful model in the current digital economy. The value of TV advertising in the USA was estimated at US$74 billion by Standard & Poor’s in 2007 32, whereas subscription revenue streams were estimated at US$75 billion by Standard & Poor’s in 2007. 33 Advertising remains a key element in the business mod-els of media companies – it represents a fundamental link between private entities and consumers. As a con-sequence, advertising remains a vital revenue stream for media companies. Digital technologies create both new opportunities and challenges for the advertising model. Innovative tracking technologies enable detailed understanding of end users, paving the way for interac-tive communication. Technologies such as Siri, Apple’s voice-controlled assistant application could, for exam-ple, enable end users to “converse” with ads. Advertising revenues also face specific challenges in the new landscape, as audiences adopt digital video recording devices to access their preferred content at a time of their choosing. These devices allow audiences to eliminate advertising, and thus have the potential to affect advertising revenue streams. More than 50% of respondents in a survey about media habits indi-cated that removing commercials is very important, and almost 30% were willing to pay to remove them. Consumers also wanted the ability to opt in or out of advertising.34 At the same time, such devices allow consumerori-ented companies to communicate with their customers and also develop deep understanding of aggregated demand for different content. In traditional advertising research, the main focus has been on consumer attitudes and behaviors.35 This was also initially the case with online advertising research, which focused on issues such as attitudes and behaviors towards ads, medium reliability, product involvement and website context congruity. Over time, the focus in online advertising research has shifted to issues of advertising effectiveness, such as attention, displayed advertising formats and visual design is-sues. Online ad pricing is often based on placement, document arrangement, frequency and size. Other transaction-based measures to determine online ad effectiveness include click-through rates, registrations and purchases.36 31 Sigismondi, P. (2011) The Digital Glocalization of Entertainment. New Paradigms in the 21st Century Global Mediascape. Springer 32 Amobi, T.N., Donald, W. (2007) Broadcasting, cable and satellite. Standard & Poor’s industry surveys. McGraw-Hill, New York 33 ibid 34 Ericsson Consumer Lab Report, TV and Media 2014 35 Michailidou, E., Christoforou, C., Zaphiris. P. (2014) Towards Predicting Ad Effective-ness via an Eye Tracking Study. HCIB Springer International Publishing Switzerland 36 ibid Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 19
  • 20. 3.3.2 ICT and Cross-Media Advertising In the current digital media market, companies’ adver-tising strategies have moved from single media plat-form to cross-media advertising. Convergence within the media industry presents advertisers with complex challenges. Target groups are fragmented because of the enormous growth in media outlets. Consumers are less attentive because of media multitasking, and more selective because of interactive and “on demand” media options, making it easier than ever to avoid ad-vertising. It is therefore increasingly difficult for market-ers to reach their target groups and attract attention to their messages.37 Cross-media advertising, where several different media are used to communicate related brand content, is one way advertisers have responded to these challenges. In cross-media campaigns, advertisers seek to maxi-mize the effectiveness of their budgets by exploiting the unique strengths of each medium and taking advantage of cross-media synergies:38 “Old media planning was about picking individual media. New media planning is about picking combinations of media.” One of the big-gest questions in cross-media advertising is how each medium can enhance the effect of the other media. The degree to which brands use different media in their campaigns varies. A study by Klausch et al. (2010) into the share and composition of 2,569 campaigns in the Netherlands showed that about 40% were cross-media campaigns. Around 33% of these campaigns used two media, 17% used three and 7% used four. The remain-der used more than four media. 37 Voorveld, H., Smit, E., Neijens, P. (2013) Cross-media Advertising: Brand Promotion in an Age of Media Convergence. Media and Convergence Management. Springer 38 ibid 20 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 21. 3.3.4 Nature of Media Advertising in the Digital Era Media economist Robert Picard argued in 2003 that the traditional media needed to prepare for the ‘‘gradual erosion’’ of their financial base because of new media pressures and declining advertising revenue. In fact, newspaper advertising revenues have dropped by an estimated 23% over the last two years.39 The current economic climate is partly responsible for this decline, though Forrester Research predicts a long-term adver-tising shift toward social and interactive media.40 According to Wagler (2013)41, more than US$ 119 billion was spent on digital advertising in 2010. Spend-ing on interactive advertising is projected to near US$ 77 billion by 2016, representing 35% of all advertis-ing in the USA. Interactive media is rapidly changing the media landscape and challenging the advertising industry to develop effective means of communication in a fragmented media environment. Advertising has a long history of working with traditional print, radio, and television. Agencies are now defining and exploring new approaches for creative applications using the vast number of interactive media channels now available. 39 Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2009 40 Kurpius, D., Metzgar, E.T., Rowley, K.M. (2010) SUSTAINING HYPERLOCAL MEDIA. Journalism Studies 11(3), PP 359-376 41 Wagler, A. (2013) Embracing Change: Exploring How Creative Professionals use Interactive Media in Advertising Campaigns. Journal of Interactive Advertising 13(2) pp. 118–127 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 21
  • 22. 3.4 Intellectual Property In an analogue world, the exploitation of intellectual property under copyright stems from carefully planned distribution through subsequent, often exclusive, “re-lease windows”. These allow content owners to apply price discrimination across a variety of distribution mechanisms for content, e.g. film, DVD and broadcast TV. Digital technologies have the potential to disrupt this mechanism. Distribution via different digital platforms makes it possible to replicate the timing of release windows, from cinemas to free-TV networks. Digital distribution methods therefore provide a parallel shelf life for enter-tainment content, generating potentially new revenue streams. The timeframes for different media are out-lined in Table 2. Table 2: Release Window Timeframes – Adapted from Sigismondi 2011 42 Distribution method Theatre Home entertainment VOD/PPV Pay-TV Free TV Network Timeframe Initial release, lasting 3 – 6 months 3 – 6 months after theatre 8 months after theatre release 12 months after theatre release 30 months after theatre release Subsequent windows Basic cable, Pay-TV and Free TV second window 42 Sigismondi, P. (2011) The Digital Glocalization of Entertainment. New Paradigms in the 21st Century Global Mediascape. Springer The duration of release windows evolves over time. ICT allows new parallel distribution mechanisms and enables rapid distribution of pirated content. The cur-rent entertainment industry business model, based on release windows, is changing and may ultimately cease to exist as a result of ICT. In particular, view-ers often choose to watch larger portions of a series in one sitting,43 not one episode per week as was the tradition before streaming services. One survey found that: “although 77 percent of people watch scheduled broadcast TV, almost as many watch streamed video several times a week or more, at 75%. A lot of recorded and physical media viewing is shifting towards easy-to-use, convenient streaming, using on-demand services that allow cross-platform access to content”.44 43 Media Vision 2020, Ericsson 44 Ericsson Consumer Lab Report, 2014 22 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 23. 3.5 Subscription Fees Other revenue streams for media and entertainment en-tities stem mainly from subscription fees collected from consumers, usually on a monthly or on-demand basis for entertainment content from different platforms. A mixed business model is often utilized, combining advertising revenues with subscription fees, as is often the case for cable or satellite TV channels. A 2006 survey of executives conducted by the Econo-mist Intelligence Unit within the IBM institute for Busi-ness Value revealed that on-demand subscription and entertainment content rental were deemed the most significant future revenue streams for telecom, network, and multiple system operators. Network executives believed advertising would still play a pivotal role. But there is another side to the story: “Studies also show a rise in ‘cord cutting’ — that is, cancellations of pay-TV subscriptions — by American households. Instead of watching scheduled channels, more people are using on-demand services like Netflix, or simply do-ing without TV, as they log longer hours on the Internet. Television, in other words, is starting to look more like the Internet, even as the Internet starts to look more like TV”.45 Content is now available anytime, anywhere. With regard to industrial structure, a number of different forms of finance are possible, including: > Reallocation, e.g. from traditional television to online, or from cinema to online distribution. > Role, e.g. whether the funder has control or interest in the content and how that control or interest is manifested. > Redistribution, e.g. consumer consumption pat-terns affect how media budgets are allocated. 45 Pfanner, E., 2013, Peering Into the Future of Media, NY Times, Oct 14, 2013 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 23
  • 24. 3.6 Regulatory Aspects The regulation of the media industry is extremely com-plex. This section provides a brief overview of some of the major issues facing the industry in the digital era. Due to convergence, the regulatory environment also affects competitiveness in addition to business models from different sectors. Regulations for different indus-tries affect the disintermediation or reintermediation prospects of not just companies and sectors, but entire regions. Google and other USA-based companies, for example, work under privacy laws that allow them to collect, collate and use data about individuals because they are regulated as IT companies. Telecommunica-tions providers, however, are unable to use their data in the same manner. A regulatory battle is therefore emerging between: 1. Regions, e.g. the USA and the EU 2. Sectors, e.g. telecommunications, IT and media regulation Communication laws and regulations have to be amend-ed in order to cope with converged services. Conver-gence is leading to the development of inter-industry segments within the media industry, as illustrated by the difficulties Google is currently facing in the EU regarding “the right to be forgotten”. Many in Europe view Google as a media company46, rather than solely a technology company. 46 Duke, S., 2014, German giant who wants Google cut down to size. The Sunday Times, 21/09/2014 According to Liu (2013)47, US communication laws and regulations are applied according to a silo model (sector-specific regulation), while the EU has adopted a horizontal or layer model for regulations. While the impact of ICT is global, there are significant issues around how individuals, nations and regions define themselves and how they control and access media. In oligopolistic and monopolistic markets, where bar-gaining power is shifted towards manufacturers, bun-dling can become an abuse of market power due to the limited choices available to consumers. New ques-tions therefore emerge. Does Google’s dominance of search markets in Europe constitute a monopoly, and should anti-trust apply? Does Google’s use of filters and “bubbling” protect the interests of end users, or does it damage companies’ abilities to market them-selves properly if an algorithm downgrades their rank-ings or removes them altogether? At what point does an aggregator need anti-trust regulations? In addition, advertising regulations affect the forms of advertising adopted online as well as in the environ-ment of television and other media.48 A study found that the UK and China, for example, applied less regulation to some forms of advertising than Germany and the USA, and that advertising markets differed as a result. Against this, it was noted that there is increasing homo-geneity of regulation across markets, mainly because of the nature of technology and the global potential of online experiences.49 Regulation is therefore intimately linked to ICT in the media industry. 47 Liu, Yu-Li. (2013). Convergence in the digital age. Telecommunications Policy, 37(8), 61–614 48 Esposito, M., Kennon, O., Mohammed, M. (2013) Brand Funded Media, MBus Thesis, Manchester Business School, 2013. 49 ibid 24 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 25. 3.6 REGULATORY ASPECTS With increasing mobility and increasing access to con-tent via mobile devices, many customers now expect access to the same content while travelling as when at home. This also creates regulatory issues, such as the question of cross-border licenses for streaming services. Previously, when an end user purchased a music CD, they were able to take it with them and listen to it on a portable media device. Today, however, many streaming services are not available to roaming travel-ers. For example, a music subscription in one country may not work while visiting another. Within the EU, therefore, “record companies and authors’ collecting societies agreed to provide multi-territory “one-click micro-licenses” for small scale use of music online, which would make it much easier for those who wish to use music to do so with legal certainty on their own websites or when posting videos on other sites”. 50 50 Euractiv, 2014, TV, film industry pledge easier cross-border copyright, euractiv.com Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 25
  • 26. 4. Industrial Disruption in Media Each of the thresholds presented in Section 3 is subject to adaptation and change. As a result of the disruptive elements of ICT over the past decade or so, the media industry has been reshaped. This process is continuing, however, and a “confluence of technical and economic changes is now altering the way we produce and exchange information, knowledge, and culture.” This is actually leading to new organiza-tional forms. Multiple value chains are emerging within the media industry that relate to: 1. How power is distributed between economic actors 2. How content is created and paid for 3. How the media production and distribution elements are financed This section outlines three forms of media value chain that digital technologies have helped enable in the media industry: 1. Authoritarian/Unilateral 2. Entrepreneurial/Distributed 3. Democratic/Inclusive These illustrate different roles that actors may play within the structures of the industry. The following descriptions present several views of how ICT may be applied for the development and distribution of media. ICT is solely an enabler of these organizational structures. They are presented here from both perspec-tives without value judgements. 26 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 27. 4.1 Authoritarian /Unilateral “ With great power vast quantities of data comes great responsibility.” Eli Pariser This organizational structure first applied in the 1800s, most closely represents that of broadcast TV. Media that operate under the authoritarian model can be either privately or publicly owned. Until the 1850s, publishing presses in Europe were privately owned and the aristocracy – wanting control over what was printed about them – exercised financial and political power to regulate what could be printed. This model is still in operation in many countries today, where governments control what is printed and broadcast, and even who has access to the internet. It is a traditional model of media that in many economies has allowed groups of commercial interests to fund media through advertis-ing or sponsorship, but not to control content without formally changing the designation of that content, e.g. from a TV show to an advertisement (see Esposito et al., 2013). This is illustrated in Figure 9. Figure 9: Authoritarian/Unilateral Content Creation and Distribution The role of ICT within the media industry today raises some challenging questions about how algorithms may inadvertently create authoritarian-style or unilateral structures within the media industry. An example of this is the “filtering” or “filter bubbles” 52 used by search and news engines. End user data is interpreted by an algorithm, and the engine presents information that it “thinks” is most relevant to each user. Information may be tailored to the user’s region, registered hobbies or job description. Examples of this exist today in Google’s search or Facebook’s selec-tive displaying of friends’ updates, in particular for their advertising requirements. 52 Pariser, E. (2011) The Filter Bubble: What the internet is hiding from you, Penguin Books Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 27
  • 28. 4.1 AUTHORITARIAN/UNILATERAL Another example is Yahoo’s personalization algorithm, which generates 45,000 totally unique versions of the Today module every five minutes.53 This algorithm makes it four times as likely that an individual will click on a link compared with traditional online editorial processes. As an example, it “might decide to serve up a particular package to women in the 35-44 age range in Peoria, for example, but not to men in that same age range in Peoria, or women in the 21-24 age range in Seattle” 54. Yahoo is also implementing this algorithm in its news feed, which means it will have a degree of control over what news an end user is presented with, despite human editors being involved in the final selec-tion process for news feeds. There is no doubt that these types of filters make the internet more efficient and can help individuals and end users find the information they are looking for more quickly. However, it effectively provides a form of digi-tally enabled authoritarian control over the media indus-try. While it is currently used to direct people’s interest to articles they will find interesting, it could also be used to direct sentiment, e.g. regarding a war or a particular court case. The reason that this falls under the authori-tarian model is that it removes control from the end user – who may not even realize what has happened. 53 Boyd, E., 2011, Brains and Bots Deep Inside Yahoo’s CORE grab a billion clicks, Fast Company, Aug. 1 2011 54 ibid Therefore media corporations may be able to execute significant control over what an end user sees in their news feed. While it is unlikely that any of today’s search engines would execute authoritarian control over search results or adapt news sources, the possibility emerges due to the application of ICT. It is not only technology companies that may apply ICT to establish control over media content. Recent changes have been propagated in the online environ-ment where instead of maintaining only indirect control of content, commercial interests have sought to better control content or to take a larger stake in the value of media programming. For example, commercial brands have become investors in online programming such as drama productions and human interest and advisory shows, as well as taking stakes in app and game de-velopment. Several companies have even started their own news outlets, e.g. GE Reports55, which provides reports on science and innovation. 55 GE Reports, available at: http://www.gereports.com/about 28 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 29. 4.2 Entrepreneurial /Distributed The ICT revolution has placed cheap and powerful computational capacity into the hands of many people around the globe. An outcome of this is that the physi-cal capital for the creation and production of content is broadly distributed throughout society, as is the power over the creation, production and distribution of media. This is illustrated in Figure 10. Anyone who wishes to create and share his or her own content it is therefore able to do so – if not alone, then at least in cooperation with others.57 Networks of individuals can now work together to generate content for one another, increasing the role of non-market and non-proprietary production. “ The change brought about by the networked information environment is deep. It is structural. It goes to the very foundations of how liberal markets and liberal democracies have coevolved for almost two centuries.” Benkler, 2006 56 Connector Node/Member Network Member Figure 10: Entrepreneurial/Distributed 56 Benkler, Y. (2006) The Wealth of Networks, Yale University Press 57 ibid Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 29
  • 30. 4.2 ENTREPRENEURIAL/DISTRIBUTED YouTube is one example of this. Terrorist organizations are also able to utilize readily available ICT to cheaply and easily create and distribute content.58 McLuhan’s anticipated “global village” of contest and conflict has come true thanks to the availability of ICT. 59, 60 One of the key aspects of this model is that it is often based on social networks. While anyone may be able to create and release content for distribution, the real power in such networks is with the “connector nodes” – people who can straddle the boundary between two or more networks and exercise influence over both. These connector nodes become very lucrative in a networked society, as they are the points at which networks can disseminate knowledge and content between one another. It is likely that advertisers will want to identify and understand these nodes in social networks because of the number of connections they have access to. These aspects of power are already 58 Malik et al, 2014, Isis in duel with Twitter and YouTube to spread extremist propaganda, Guardian, 24th September 2014 59 McLuhan, M. (1962) The Gutenberg galaxy: The making of typographic man, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul. 60 McLuhan, M. (1964) Understanding media, New York: Signet Books. understood within the media industry, as can be seen in LinkedIn’s “Influencer” title or Klout’s Social media scores. These connector nodes provide dissemination points that will allow advertisers or content developers to quickly develop “market reach”. “ICT enables new forms of production and exchange based on these networks that will now co-exist and play a much larger role, alongside property- and market-based produc-tion, than they ever have in modern democracies.” 61 As opposed to traditional mass media technologies such as TV, radio and print, new media is a disparate set of technological platforms that are deeply inter-woven into the social fabric of their user communities (be it YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest or a slew of others), giving rise to fundamentally and functionally distinct attention structures. As a result, a number of new types of media companies now classify their work as “digital journalism”. 61 Pariser, E. (2011) The Filter Bubble: What the internet is hiding from you, Penguin Books 30 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
  • 31. 4.3 Democratic /Inclusive Perhaps the most commonly recognized and under-stood organizational structure of the digital media industry is the democratic/inclusive model. This covers the use of ICT, and in particular social media, to create two-way communication between the creators of infor-mation and the consumers. In order to exercise power within this sort of structure, input is required from as many people as possible so as to effectively represent the overall wishes of the population in question. This is illustrated in Figure 11. An example is Netflix, which uses information gathered from all of its end users in order to create content. 62, 63, 64 The UK radio station BBC Radio 1 uses this organiza-tional structure effectively to help create its playlists. For example, during playlist creation meetings, “the Figure 11: Democratic Structure in Media Content Creation and Curation 62 Ericsson, 2014 The Impact of Datafication on Strategic Landscapes 63 Maull, R., Godsiff, P., Mulligan, C.E.A. “The Impact of Datafication on Service Sys-tems,” System Sciences (HICSS), 2014 47th Hawaii International Conference on, vol., no., pp.1193, 1201, 6-9 Jan. 2014 64 Lycett, M. (2013) ‘Datafication’: making sense of (big) data in a complex world. EJIS 22(4): 381-386 (2013) artist’s YouTube views, Soundcloud hits, Shazam rat-ings, Twitter followers and Facebook likes” are tallied as an important input from the target audience.65 This is combined with traditional market research: “we’ve got a panel of thousands of young people from the age of 12 to 29 in our overall research group, and we pay a research company to test 400 of them every week.” To some extent, this is a response to the younger gen-eration’s methods of connecting with content – which is heavily digital and smartphone-based. Radio 1 is there-fore augmenting its traditional broadcasts with a You- Tube channel and a BBC iPlayer channel, which allows it to get more detailed information about which songs and bands generate most interest among listeners. These types of initiatives by media and content companies cause another shift in the power distribution of the music industry: “the internet has diminished the power of pluggers in favor of stats about an artist’s online popularity. There’s more music out there than there’s ever been because it’s cheaper to produce and distribute.” 66 The result is that it becomes the artist’s responsibility, rather then the record label’s, to develop a digital media following through channels such as YouTube and Twitter. One outcome of this form of organizational structure is the development of multi-channel networks (MCNs), “which function as new media’s answer to Hollywood studios, giving independent creators a host of market-ing, growth, and other business offerings in exchange for a percentage of their advertising revenue”. 67 65 Khomami, N. (2014) Radio 1’s playlist 66 Khomami, N. (2014) Radio 1’s playlist secrets uncovered: the battle of the ‘brands’, The Observer, 25 May 2014 67 http://www.buzzfeed.com/hillaryreinsberg/old-media-is-buying-up-the-biggest-you-tube- networks?utm_term=4ldqpia#vgjop8 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media 31
  • 32. 5. Conclusions The media industry is one of the fastest-changing and most dynamic industries in the world. The industry’s experiences of the convergence of technology, business models and regulation predict the likely impact of ICT on many other industries. Media has often acted as an early indicator of how industries will adapt to changes in consumer behavior resulting from new technologies. Early ICT adoption by the media industry focused on productivity and efficiency improvements for well-established processes and a well-defined value chain, with an understood distribution of costs and profits. As technologies have converged, bringing new ways to create, produce and distribute content, the industry has had to adapt to rapid changes in end users’ tastes and preferred access methods. And whereas end users have long been accustomed to a relatively stable selec-tion of media outlets — film, TV, DVD, radio — they now have access to a vast range of media and a plethora of devices on which to access them. UGC is now well established even within video creation as cheaper bandwidth and higher processing capacity in mobile devices means that many more of life’s mo-ments can be captured and shared with others. The media industry and the mobile communications and technology industries are now closely intertwined, reinforcing the fundamental role of ICT. It is not possible to discuss the media industry without discussing the impact of ICT. At the same time, ICT creates new possibilities for redistribution of power across the media industry. End users have access to powerful technology that enables them to create networks for creation and distribution of content. These networks often have global reach and utilize social media outlets as distribution mecha-nisms. ICT has virtually removed the entry barriers to the media industry. However, a key issue for the digital media industry is to improve the quality and reliability of information within such networks. An important development within the media industry has been the creation of aggregators – websites or software that pull together different types of informa-tion and content for end users. These them to create their own bundles instead of relying on a company to do it for them. ICT has already contributed to the evolution of three organizational forms – Authoritarian/Unilateral, Entre-preneurial/ Distributed and Democratic/Inclusive. These represent different ways that ICT has been applied within the media industry to exercise power over con-tent and distribution. The application of ICT in such a broad variety of forms perhaps reflects the complexity of humanity and our increasing interdependence in a rapidly changing world. 32 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media
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  • 36. Ericsson is the driving force behind the Networked Society – a world leader in communications technology and services. Our long-term relationships with every major telecom operator in the world allow people, businesses and societies to fulfil their potential and create a more sustainable future. Our services, software and infrastructure – especially in mobility, broadband and the cloud – are enabling the telecom industry and other sectors to do better business, increase efficiency, improve the user experience and capture new opportunities. With more than 110,000 professionals and customers in 180 countries, we combine global scale with technology and services leadership. We support networks that connect more than 2.5 billion subscribers. Forty percent of the world’s mobile traffic is carried over Ericsson networks. And our investments in research and development ensure that our solutions – and our customers – stay in front. Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson SE-126 25 Stockholm, Sweden Telephone +46 8 719 00 00 www.ericsson.com LME-14:004140 Uen © Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson 2014 36 Part 3/8 Industry Transformation – Horizon Scan: ICT & the Future of Media