2016 pre-Thanksgiving retail pulse survey: What will retailers be thankful for this year?

2016 pre-Thanksgiving pulse survey
An update on the holiday season

2016 Pre-Thanksgiving pulse surveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2
Executive Summary
• Midway through the holiday season, most shoppers are bullish on spending. Eighty five percent
forecast they will spend the same or more than they predicted at the outset of the season.
• Four in 10 holiday shoppers have not yet started their holiday shopping, and most are not very far
down their lists. Eighty percent of holiday gift spending is expected to happen over the remaining
weeks of the season.
• Three quarters plan to shop during the upcoming holiday weekend, with a fairly even mix of online
versus offline shopping across the period.
• Shoppers plan to spend more this holiday weekend than they intended last year, and average spend is
estimated at $400.
• Thanksgiving Day will be among the lightest shopping days of the holiday weekend. Still, roughly 1 in
5 plan to shop on Thanksgiving, with online shopping slightly outpacing in-store.
• A significant portion of shoppers plan to be out on Black Friday, but online shopping almost rivals that
in store, as most consumers are convinced they will find similar deals in both channels.
• Activity between Saturday and Cyber Monday will remain relatively strong, particularly in-store
shopping on Saturday, which will be driven in part by support for local businesses (42%).
• Cyber Monday will mark the peak for online holiday shopping (74%).

Contents
Holiday spending: A mid-season check up 4
Peak shopping days: Thanksgiving Day
through Cyber Monday 7
Research: How holiday shoppers are
gathering information 17

Holiday spending:
A mid-season check up

Midway through the holiday season, most shoppers are bullish on spending.
Almost one-third (32%) plan to spend more than they originally planned, and
this extra spending will most often be directed toward gifts.
Expect to
spend more,
32%
Expect to
spend less,
15%
Expect to spend
the same,
54%
How do your holiday spending plans
compare to just a month or two ago?
On what will shoppers spend more?
83%
42% 41%
36%
27% 24%
Gifts Entertaining
at home
Gift cards/gift
certificates
Socializing
away from
home
Non-gift
clothing for
yourself or
family
Home/holiday
furnishings
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
Saving more Paying down debt
Personal
household
finances worse
Due to
values/beliefs
Will take
advantage of
sales
Why do they plan to spend less?
(Among 15% who plan to spend less)
“How do your overall holiday spending plans compare to just a month or two ago?” N=1223
“On which of the following holiday purchases do you believe you will spend more?” n= 385
“What are the reasons why you plan to spend less?” n= 179

Four in 10 holiday shoppers have not yet started their holiday shopping, and
most are not very far down their lists. Eighty percent of holiday gift spending is
expected to happen over the remaining weeks of the season.
35%
13% 14%
18%
21%
1-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-50% >50%
% of shopping completed
(Among shoppers who have started)
80% of gift spending is yet to come
40% shoppers have not started their holiday shopping
“How much of your holiday gift spending have you completed to date for the December holidays?”

Peak shopping days:
Thanksgiving Day through
Cyber Monday

Three quarters plan to shop during the upcoming holiday weekend, with a fairly
even mix of online versus offline shopping.
“Do you expect to do any shopping for the December holiday(s) either online or in stores over the Thanksgiving period – including Thanksgiving Thursday through
the following Monday?”
Plan to shop during Thanksgiving weekend
(Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday)
76%
YesNo
84% plan to shop
in store
87% plan to shop
online
Among shoppers who plan to shop…
(Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday)

Shoppers plan to spend more this holiday weekend than they intended last
year, and average spend is estimated at $400. Online spending is expected to
outpace in-store spending slightly over the course of the five day period.
Online/offline spending during Thanksgiving weekend
51%
46%
3%
Online In-Store Catalogue
“Percentage of your spending during the Thanksgiving weekend - channel wise” n= 926
$400 (+31 vs 2015)
Average planned spending
(Thanksgiving Thursday through Cyber Monday)
$205
$185
$10

“On what days do you expect to shop in stores?” n= 778; “On what days do you expect to shop online?” n= 808
Shopping participation across online and in-store channels will ebb and flow
throughout the Thanksgiving weekend, peaking on Black Friday and rising to
near Black Friday levels on Cyber Monday.
37%
79%
59%
42%
71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Thanksgiving Black Friday Saturday Sunday Cyber Monday
Plan to shop online or in store
‫‏‬(Among 76% shopping throughout Thanksgiving weekend)

69%
39%
32%
25%
21%
Do not want to miss the best deals
Enjoy shopping with family and friends
Part of my Thanksgiving ritual
After Thanksgiving celebration, it's something/somewhere
to do/go
To avoid the crowds or the experience of Black Friday
Why shoppers plan to shop in store on Thanksgiving Thursday
‫‏‬(Among 22% shopping in stores on Thanksgiving Day)
“On what days do you expect to shop in stores/Online?” n=778/807
“Why will you be shopping in stores on Thanksgiving Thursday?” n= 173
“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you “Strongly disagree” and 5 means you “Strongly agree”, please state how much you agree with the following:”
Thanksgiving Day will be among the lightest shopping days of the holiday
weekend. Still, roughly 1 in 5 plan to shop on Thanksgiving, with online shopping
slightly outpacing in-store. Thanksgiving Day shopping is largely driven by deals.
Thanksgiving Day Shopping
22%
In-Store
Vs. 31%
Online
‫‏‬(Among in-store weekend shoppers) ‫‏‬(Among online weekend shoppers)

“Why will you be shopping in stores on Thanksgiving Thursday?” n= 173
‫‏‬What time do you expect to go to the store?
‫‏‬(Among 22% shopping in stores on Thanksgiving Day)
Sentiment around shopping on Thanksgiving Day is largely negative, with 7 in 10
disagreeing with stores being open. The majority of Thanksgiving Day shoppers
plan to visit stores in the late afternoon and evening, with a spike at 6pm.
‫‏‬Attitudes toward shopping on Thanksgiving
‫‏‬(Among all shoppers)
69%
67%
42%
23%
14%
I won’t be motivated to shop on
Thanksgiving Day this year because it’s
an important holiday to spend with
family and friends
I disagree with stores being open on
Thanksgiving
I will wait to shop with their preferred
retailer(s) if they aren’t open
I feel more loyal to retailers who close
on Thanksgiving
I feel loyal to retailers that are open on
Thursday and allow them to shop
Thanksgiving Day Shopping
22%
In-Store
Vs. 31%
Online
9%
4%
21%
25%
24%
16%
Unsure
11 PM or later
07:00 to 10 PM
06:00 PM
03:00 to 05:00 PM
Before 3 PM
Prime
Time
70%

86%
28%
27%
25%
21%
Take advantage of best sales or deals of the season
Enjoy shopping with family and friends
Overall excitement of the day
Part of my Black Friday ritual
Store shopping is preferred over online
Why shoppers plan to shop in store on Black Friday
‫‏‬(Among 69% shopping in stores on Friday)
“Why will you be shopping in stores on Black Friday?” n= 535
A significant portion of shoppers plan to be out on Black Friday, but online shopping
almost rivals that in store. The overwhelming majority of shoppers believe retailers
offer comparable deals both online and in store.
Black Friday Shopping
69%
In-Store
Vs. 55%
Online
71%
Often find retailers offer
comparable deals online and
in stores during the
Thanksgiving weekend

16%
0%
19%
24%
12%
15%
14%
Unsure
10 AM or later
07:00 to 09:00 AM
06:00 AM
01:00 to 05:00 AM
Midnight
“Why will you be shopping in stores on Black Friday?” n= 535
When shoppers plan to shop on Black Friday
‫‏‬(Among 69% shopping in stores on Black Friday)
Half of shoppers think they can find the best deals of the season on Black Friday.
Those who go in store (versus shopping online) have a mix of strategies – some
hit the stores at midnight while the majority head out first thing in the morning.
Is this up/flat/down
to last year?
Black Friday Shopping
69%
In-Store
Vs. 55%
Online
‫‏‬Attitudes toward shopping on Black Friday
‫‏‬(Among all shoppers)
56%
49%
37%
27%
25%
I plan to take advantage of early Black
Friday deals online
The best deals of the season are on
Black Friday
The Black Friday deals are not as good
as they used to be
Black Friday deals are better than they
used to be
I expect retailers will offer better deals
online than in the store on Black Friday
55%

Activity between Saturday and Cyber Monday will remain relatively strong,
particularly in-store shopping on Saturday, which will be driven in part by support
for local businesses. Cyber Monday will mark the peak for online shopping.
Saturday Shopping
53%
In-Store
Vs. 36%
Online
42% plan to shop on Saturday in support of local businesses
Sunday Shopping
32%
In-Store
Vs. 30%
Online
Cyber Monday Shopping
42%
In-Store
Vs. 74%
Online

42%
32%
53%
69%
22%
Cyber Monday
Sunday
Saturday
Black Friday
Thanksgiving Day
74%
30%
36%
55%
31%
Cyber Monday
Sunday
Saturday
Black Friday
Thanksgiving Day
84% plan to shop
in store
87% plan to shop
online
29% like to connect to retailer’s
Wi-Fi while shopping in store
“On what days do you expect to shop in stores?” n= 778; “On what days do you expect to shop online?” n= 808
“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you “Strongly disagree” and 5 means you “Strongly agree”, please state how much you agree with the following”
Online and in-store shopping will vie for importance this holiday weekend. Cyber
Monday is the only day when online shopping is expected to take a commanding
lead over in-store shopping.

55% Plan to complete online holiday purchases early this year to avoid
shipping delays
28% Will likely purchase earlier in the holiday season
because of concerns that merchandise may run out
40% Are likely to purchase later in the holiday season
because they anticipate better promotions
Percent of respondents who agree/strongly agree
Shoppers are mixed on the value of shopping earlier versus later in the
season, with a small majority citing potential shipping delays as a
compelling reason to shop early

Research:
How holiday shoppers are
gathering information

Where shoppers expect to obtain information about Thanksgiving weekend
58%
57%
36%
34%
31%
26%
20%
18%
17%
11%
Websites dedicated to featuring Black Friday deals
Retailer websites
Newspapers
Mailers/flyers
Email
TV or radio commercials
Social media sites
In retailers' stores
Mobile device
Other websites
Digital medium
Traditional medium
“Where do you expect to obtain information about Thanksgiving weekend?” n= 926
The Internet is the go-to source for information about Thanksgiving
weekend shopping, but print media will still play a role in the season.

Time spent researching deals
3%
28%
51%
14%
5%
0 hours
Less than
1 hour
1-2 hours
3-5 hours
More than
5 hours
+15 vs 2015
69%
“How much time would you say you spend researching on these deals (before visiting retailer or retail website, or, before making a purchase)?” n= 926
“Do you expect to shop together with other family members or friends in stores over the Thanksgiving period?” n= 778
“How many different (physical) retail stores are you planning on visiting in person over the Thanksgiving period?” n=778
4.2 — average number
of venues consumers
expect to shop
62% — of in-store
shoppers plan to go
with their family or
friends
Shoppers will invest a significant amount of time into researching deals
before the holiday weekend. Nearly 7 in 10 plan to spend an hour or
more researching before making a purchase.

Webrooming is expected to be more popular than showrooming
during the Thanksgiving shopping weekend.
Showrooming
… first go to a store to look for an item,
then search online for the best price, and
then purchase online
44%
Webrooming
… first look at items online, then go
to a store to see the item, then
make purchase at store
63%
Omni-channel shopping behavior
“I plan to research online before shopping in stores on the Thanksgiving weekend” n=926
“I plan to research products in the store before buying them online over the Thanksgiving weekend” n=926
Percent of respondents who agree/strongly agree

About the survey
This survey was commissioned by Deloitte
and conducted online by an independent
research company between November 9 –
14, 2016.
It polled a national sample of 1,223 adults
(age 18+) who plan to shop during the
holiday season and has a margin of error
for the entire sample of plus or minus three
percentage points.
As used in this document, “Deloitte” refers to Deloitte LLP. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries.
Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.

2016 pre-Thanksgiving retail pulse survey: What will retailers be thankful for this year?

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