3. 論文導讀
Chi-Hua Chen, Ching-Yun Pang, Ta-Sheng Kuan, Kuen-Rong Lo,
“An Arrival Time Prediction Method Based on Random Neural
Networks,” Proceedings of the 22nd ITS World Congress, Bordeaux,
France, October 5th-9th, 2015.
3
18. 研究方法
集成神經網路
測試階段和執行階段
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Cloud-based
Server
2st NN2st NN
5nd NN5nd NN
7rd NN7rd NN
8th NN8th NN
Predicted
Travel Time
tn – tn-1
Predicted
Travel Time
tn – tn-1
The weight
of 2st NN
The weight
of 2st NN
The weight
of 5nd NN
The weight
of 5nd NN
The weight
of 7rd NN
The weight
of 7rd NN
The weight
of 8th NN
The weight
of 8th NN
t2 - t1t2 - t1
t3 - t2t3 - t2
t4 - t3t4 - t3
Input
Real-time stop-to-stop
travel time
Output
Predicted travel time
/Predicted arrival time
19. 研究方法
集成神經網路
測試階段和執行階段
19
The set of stop-to-stop travel time (TT)
{599, 95, 174, 264, 569}
The 2-nd
NN Model
The 5-th
NN Model
The 7-th
NN Model
The 8-th
NN Model
Predicted TT
3766.607
Predicted TT
3857.98
Predicted TT
3661.828
Predicted TT
3724.095
Weight
94.90%
Weight
94.61%
Weight
94.93%
Weight
95.21%
The predicted travel time
(i.e., the weighting average value)
3752.516552
20. 實驗結果與討論
實驗環境
◦ 以臺灣國道客運和新竹市區客運為例
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Highway
(2 routes, 15 stops,
Every 30 to 40 minutes)
Urban Road
(2 routes, 40 stops,
Every 30 to 40 minutes)
Training Stage
Dataset in April 2014
1618 runs 1726 runs
Testing Stage
Dataset in May 2014
1442 runs 1408 runs
21. 實驗結果與討論
國道客運旅行時間預測正確率
市區客運旅行時間預測正確率
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Method Average Accuracy
Statistical Mean Value [13] 94.08%
Logistic Regression [19] 94.42%
Back Propagation Neural Network [16] 94.65%
Random Neural Networks (Proposed Method) 94.75%
Method Average Accuracy
Statistical Mean Value [13] 73.79%
Logistic Regression [19] 77.43%
Back Propagation Neural Network [16] 77.88%
Random Neural Networks (Proposed Method) 78.22%