IRCC is well on the way to meeting its 2021 target of some 400,000 Permanent Residents: To date 221,360 Jan-Aug 2021 compared to 228,410 in 2019, with close to 40,000 in July and August. The vast majority are transitioning from temporary residency, primarily the PGWP and IMP.
Great percentage increase is, not surprisingly, with respect to Afghans, both in terms of applications (from an average of 200 in the first six months of the year to close to 8,000 in August) and admissions (from an average of 170 to over 1,000).
The number of Temporary Residents/IMP continues to increase, particularly with respect to “Canadian interests” (post-graduate employment accounting for more than half, spouses of skilled workers accounting for 9 percent, and intra-corporate transferees 3 percent). On the other hand, the number of Temporary Foreign Workers Program decreased, reflecting lower demand in the agriculture sector.
Applications for study permits have largely recovered from pre-pandemic levels (down only 5 percent), as have the number of study permits issued albeit to a lessor extent (down 13 percent).
Asylum Claimants slightly increased but still more than three-quarters down from pre-pandemic levels.
The number of new citizens seems to be stuck around 9-10,000 per month, compared to pre-pandemic numbers of about 20,000.
Visitor Visas issued increased sharply from monthly average of 4,200 in the first six months of the year to close to 40,000 in August, likely reflecting increased vaccinations and reduced travel restrictions.
1. COVID-19 Immigration Effects
2018 to August 2021
Working Draft - Key Slides
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7
Economic Family Refugees
2. Programs Examined
• Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic, Family and Refugees
• TR to Permanent Resident transition
• Asylum Claimants
• Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS),
Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment,
spouses)
• Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other
workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA)
• Study Permits (international students)
• Settlement Services
• Citizenship
• Visitor Visas
2
3. July 2021 Highlights
• 2021 Permanent Resident numbers are only marginally lower than 2019 levels: 221,360 Jan-Aug 2021 compared to 228,410.
• PRs: Admissions slight decline from 39,525 in July to 37,595 in August. August Year-over-year change (change from 2019 in parentheses): Economic
327.9% (24.8%), Family 77.7% (-8.7%), Refugees 214.7% (26%)
• Applications: Slight increase from 26,608 in July to 27,603 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2019): 21.7% (-24.3%). Notable increase by Afghans.
• Web “Immigrate to Canada”: Decline from 535,889 in August (outside Canada) to 460,517 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2019): -11.9% (-2%)
• Provincial Nominee Program: Drop from 6,895 in July to 4,745 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2019): 142.1% (-46%)
• TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Increase from 29,155 in July (some double counting) to 30,900 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2019): 1,712.3% (137.5%)
• Temporary Residents:
• TRs/IMP: Increase, from 28,960 in July to 36,615 in August. August year-over-year (two year change): Agreements 40.4% (-13.5%), Canadian Interests: 189% (45%), Other IMP Participants 2,683.3% (3,240%, Not stated 208.8% (-12.3%)
• TRs/TFWP: Decline from 8,830 in July to 6,205 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2019): Caregivers -2.1% (-54.4%), Agriculture -33.9% (14.9%) and Other LMIA 13% (-15.4%).
• Web “Get a work permit”: From 76,416 in August (outside Canada) to 78,352 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2019): 12.5% (-14.1%)
• Students: Increase from 39,790 in July to 98,550 in August (seasonal peak). August year-over-year change (change from 2019): 145.6% (-12.7%)
• Applications: Decrease from 59,010 in July to 57,757 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2019): 421.2% (-4.8%)
• Web “Get a study permit”: Decline from 98,072 in August (outside Canada) to 85,193 in September. September Year-over-year change (change from 2019): 43.2% (61.1%)
• Asylum Claimants: Increase from 1,240 in July (about 75% inland) to 1,465 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2019): 42.2% (-76.7%)
• Settlement Services (December 2020): Decline from 48,700 in November to 42,890 in December. December year-over-year (change from 2019): 21.6%
(-17.1%)
• Web “Find immigrant services hear you”: From 11,628 in August (outside Canada) to 10,784 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2019): 79.5% (-26.1%)
• Citizenship: Slight increase from 9,198 in July to 9,552 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2019): -7.3% (-59.4%)
• Applications: From 16,783 in February to 6,069 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2019): -70.4% (-76.1%)
• “Apply for citizenship”: From 28,137 in August (outside Canada) to 25,500 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2019): -38.2% (120.6%)
• Visitor Visas: Sharp increase from 7,528 in July to 36,752 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2019): 797.9% (-58.7%)
3
4. Overall Decline Across all Programs
FY 2020-2021 Compared to FY 2019-20
4
PR Applications
PR Admissions
Asylum Claimants
Temporary Workers IMP
Temporary Workers TFWP
Study Permit Applications
Study Permit Holders
Citizenship Applications
New Citizens
Settlement Services (2020/19)
Visitor Visas
-120% -88.75% -57.5% -26.25% 5%
-95.1%
-21.4%
-77.3%
-30.5%
-25%
-38.8%
4.4%
-9.3%
-76.4%
-46.1%
-38.8%
11. Admissions: PRs Canada Total
August Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Economic Family Refugees
264.4%
141.1%
84.6%
26%
-8.7%
24.8%
214.7%
77.7%
327.9%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19 Q2
11
12. Admissions: PNP Provinces
August Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
-100%
50%
200%
350%
500%
Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC
-31.7%
-29.7%
-51.3%
-53.3%
-45.2%
-49.6%
-20%
-54.5%
-60.7%
-53.2%
-36.5%
-30.6%
500%
93.4%
39.4%
142.2%
120%
143.6%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19 2020
12
13. Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship
August Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year
-100%
100%
300%
500%
700%
India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK
-38.5%
-62.6%
-7.5%
-42.6%
-40%
-49.6%
-52.2%
-44.7%
-60.3%
-49.7%
9.3%
-22.4%
150.5%
-16.5%
2.2%
-19.4%
-22.8%
-9.8%
-29.8%
56.3%
302.9%
225%
606.1%
86.1%
204%
134.9%
219.4%
232.1%
206.3%
370.6%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19 2020
13
19. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
August Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
-150%
37.5%
225%
412.5%
600%
India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA
-84.8%
-42.9%
-40.8%
-73.5%
-81.6%
-56.3%
-97%
-86.2%
-82%
-82.3%
-16.7%
81.8%
480%
28.6%
-12.5%
600%
-40%
-18.2%
-4.3%
-26.7%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19
19
20. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7
Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not speci
fi
ed
20
21. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest
September Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-70%
-52.5%
-35%
-17.5%
0%
17.5%
35%
52.5%
India USA Nigeria UK UAE Pakistan Philippines Mexico Saudi Arabia Brazil
-27.8%
-5.5%
-14.9%
21.2%
-24.7%
-24%
-25.5%
-4.8%
-27.2%
-5%
-9.8%
-5.6%
-0.3%
35.8%
-2.4%
-29.9%
-25.6%
6.1%
-67.4%
1.5%
Sep 2021/20 Sep 2021/19
21
24. IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7
Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania
24
25. TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7
Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania
25
26. IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total
Year to Year Comparison (Monthly)
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
2019-1 2019-3 2019-5 2019-7 2019-9 2019-11 2020-1 2020-3 2020-5 2020-7 2020-9 2020-11 2021-1 2021-3 2021-5 2021-7
IMP TFWP
26
27. Temporary Residents by Program Canada
August Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA
-12.7%
-6.1%
-49%
-7.9%
-31.1%
-15.4%
14.9%
-54.4%
45%
-13.5%
13%
-33.9%
-2.1%
189%
40.4%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19 2020
27
28. IMP by Citizenship
August Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan
-50.9%
-23.6%
-14.2%
-32.9%
-69.9%
-31.9%
42.8%
-31.3%
-13.9%
121% 126.1%
75.2%
78.9%
60.6%
30.8%
85.7%
130.8%
76.8%
96.1%
268.4%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19
28
29. TFWP by Citizenship
August Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-150%
-77.5%
-5%
67.5%
140%
Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France
25%
-92%
-53.8%
-41.3%
-48.8%
-44.4%
-39.6%
48.3%
6.5%
41.6%
90.5%
-86.7%
20%
125%
-15.4%
-38.8%
-11.3%
-6%
-45.8%
-37.8%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19
29
31. Work Permits—Web Interest
September Comparison—2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
India USA Mexico UK Australia Pakistan Brazil Philippines UAE Saudi Arabia
-18.3%
-11.4%
13.2%
16.9%
-29.6%
-36.1%
-28.2%
2.9%
-30.1%
-5.7%
9.5%
12.2%
78.3%
30.3%
-4%
34.7%
9.7%
9.9%
-33.9%
13.6%
Sep 2021/20 Sep 2021/19
31
33. Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-21
17,500
35,000
52,500
70,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
33
34. Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-21
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
2018-1 2018-5 2018-9 2019-1 2019-5 2019-9 2020-1 2020-5 2020-9 2021-1 2021-5
Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies
34
35. Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
35
36. Study Permit Holders by Citizenship
August Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year
-150%
0%
150%
300%
450%
600%
India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria
-14.9%
0.8%
-17.4%
13.4%
-40.9%
-37.5%
1.5%
-46.8%
-38.9%
-20.4%
213.2%
263.9%
258%
512%
46.8%
214.6%
483.4%
39%
1.1%
138.9%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19
36
37. Study Permit Holders by Province
August Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
-90%
32.5%
155%
277.5%
400%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
-28.2%
-34.4%
-41.8%
-26.5%
-36.5%
-21.5%
-46.8%
-8.2%
2.5%
-29.6%
-26.9%
-20.0%
0.6%
-10.1%
100.3%
209.1%
165.6%
114.4%
127.8%
185.9%
332.8%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19 2020
37
39. Study Permits—Web Interest
September Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-150%
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan
-2.6%
-98.9%
71.4%
109.3%
250.2%
48.5%
77%
-17.4%
7.7%
99.3%
17.6%
30.8%
19.9%
70.6%
170.1%
45.1%
65.6%
-10.5%
-32.7%
47.1%
Sep 2021/20 Sep 2021/19
39
41. Settlement—By Service—2018-20
In Canada Services—Top 25 Countries
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10
Community Connections Employment Related Services Information and Orientation Services Language Assessment
Language Training Needs & Assets Assessment and Referrals Resettlement Assistance Program Service Delivery Improvement
41
42. Settlement Services
Year-over-year Comparison by Service—December 2020, Last Quarter
Community
Employment
Information/Orientation
Language Assessment
Language Training
Needs Assessment, Referrals
Resettlement Assistance
-100% -72.5% -45% -17.5% 10%
-88.2%
-30.5%
-13.3%
-71.1%
1.5%
-24.3%
-23.3%
-48.4%
-29.3%
-9.8%
-68.2%
-9.1%
-36.2%
-40.3%
December 2020 July-September
42
43. Settlement Services
Year-over-year Comparison by Province—December 2020, Last Quarter
-50%
-37.5%
-25%
-12.5%
0%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
-18.4%
-23.2%
-24.8%
-26.5%
-7.4%
-28.4%
-45.8%
-19.7%
-13.4%
-24.1%
-35.8%
-15.9%
-28.9%
-21.8%
December 2020 July-September
43
44. Settlement Services by Citizenship
Year-over-year Comparison—December 2020, Last Quarter
Top 10, 2018 base year
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Syria Eritrea Congo Somalia Afghanistan India Pakistan Korea Mexico Philippines
-14.3%
-15.4%
-29.3%
-16.6%
-15.6%
-15.9%
-28.1%
-24.5%
-17.4%
-23.5%
-38.3%
-26.1%
-17.3%
-18.8%
-2.2%
0.9%
-32.5%
-36.4%
-23.3%
-20.2%
December 2020 July-September
44
46. Settlement Services—Web Interest
September Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries by “Find immigrant services near you” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
India USA Brazil UAE Pakistan Nigeria Mexico UK ColombiaPhilippines
20.3%
-29.4%
-42.4%
-11.2%
-16.2%
-21.6%
-18.8%
24.7%
-48.1%
-2.1%
153%
151.7%
48.8%
121%
130.4%
76.8%
43.1%
86.8%
33.6%
41.6%
Sep 2021/20 Sep 2021/19
46
49. New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-21
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
49
50. Citizenship by Region of Birth
August Comparison: 2021/19 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-90%
-67.5%
-45%
-22.5%
0%
22.5%
45%
67.5%
90%
Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France
-83.4%
-51.5%
-73.8%
-51.1%
-46.7%
-56.7%
-66.9%
-77.7%
-35.4%
-71% -69.6%
76.8%
-14.3%
40.1%
4.3%
13.9%
12.5%
-32.2%
25.1%
-30%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19
50
51. Citizenship—Web Interest
Note: Technical anomaly April - December 2019
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7
Canada Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania Not captured
51
52. Citizenship—Web Interest
September Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries by “Apply for Citizenship” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
USA India UK Pakistan UAE Nigeria China Brazil Turkey Bangladesh
146.4%
251%
202.3%
64.5%
98.6%
113.6%
129.2%
140.2%
146.3%
122.3%
-0.7%
18.4%
-21.1%
-0.4%
9.5%
-29%
11%
-17.4%
-15.8%
-69.5%
Sep 2021/20 Sep 2021/19
52
54. Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-21
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7
Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other
54
55. Visitor Visas—By Source Country
August Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-500%
625%
1,750%
2,875%
4,000%
China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia
-73.4%
-81.4%
-100%
-74.8%
-56.2%
-88.2%
-75.3%
-84.7%
-3%
-70.9%
23.1%
137%
-100%
1,790.9%
121.8%
677.3%
1,630%
84.6%
3,340%
1,161.3%
August 2021/20 August 2021/19
55
56. Research Questions
56
• Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries
were most a
ff
ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries
recovered more quickly?
• Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source
country?
• Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or
tensions with China a factor?
• Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for
which countries?
58. Top Countries Share of Total (2018)
10 Countries 25 Countries
Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7%
IMP 70.8% 86.4%
TFWP 85.2% 93.2%
Study Permits 70.3% 73.8%
Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4%
Citizenship 50.3% 71.5%
58
59. Top Countries (2018)
Permanent
Residents
IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship
India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647
Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486
China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037
Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718
Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406
USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398
Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229
France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115
Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951
UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915
Saudi
Arabia
2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836
59
60. Data Sources
• PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions
of Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries
• TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and
Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and
Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada –
Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category
• Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O
ffi
ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship
(2019 ranking), Claim O
ffi
ce Type and Claim Year
• TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which
permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination,
program and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and
year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in
which permit(s) became e
ff
ective
• Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada - Study permit
holders by province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Source Countries - Applications
Processed by IRCC for New Study Permit Applications
• Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table
• Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month
• Web: Provided by IRCC
60