Presentación de Walter Vergara, miembro sénior del World Resources Institute (WRI), en el seminario virtual "Cambio climático: ¿A qué nos enfrentamos y cómo hacerlo mejor?", realizado el 29 de septiembre de 2017.

1. Paths for decarbonizing power and
transport in the LAC region
Walter Vergara,
Senior fellow, WRI
WEBINAR: CLIMATE CHANGE HOW TO DO BETTER?
AIDA AMERICAS
September 29 2017
Abengoa, Conceptualization of Cerro Dominador CSP plant in Chile
Context
What drives the transition
Links with transport
Barriers and agenda

2. • 10% of global emissions (4.6 GtCO2e); 7.7 tCO2e per capita;
• 22% decrease in carbon intensity per GDP-PPP since 2000;
• 48% renewable power = 0.21 tCO2e /MWh;
• Urban public-transport share of passenger trips even higher than in
Northern Europe;
• Nearly 50% of emissions come from land use and land use change.
LAC’s carbon footprint

3. Projected demand and emissions of
the power sector
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
EJ/year
GEA-MIX GEA-BAU
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 2012 2030 2050 2070
MtCO2e
CAIT | GEA-BAU
(CAIT, 2015; IIASA, 2015)

4. Map of hydro power plants with
more than 1 GW
nominal capacity
Source: WRI (Power Watch), 2017

5. Area: 102,000 sq km
Irradiance 265 W/m2 (highest worldwide)
Power received 27.4 TW or 80 PWh per year
Proven oil reserves of Saudia Arabia
268 billion barrels of oil
If all converted to power: 26 PWh
If the average efficiency of PV systems is 15% ,
in 16 years, 4% of the area of Atacama
generates same power as all the proven
oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.
Atacama Desert Energy field

6. Area: 10,000 sq km
Wind Field: Class Seven (Consistent over 9m/s
at 50 m height)
Estimated Wind Energy Potential: 18 GW
(ACS, 2012) (Prieto, 2008)
(Colombia’s estimated installed capacity is
15.5 GW)
Installed capacity: 20 MW
Projects proposed: 3 GW
Atacama desert: Energy fieldGuajira Peninsula Energy Field
Jepirachi power plant

7. (Ecofys, 2009)
Resource endowment Renewable
energy sources in Latin America
0 20 40 60
PWh/year
Geothermal
OCEAN
Hydro-Power
Wind-offshore
Wind-onshore
Solar PV
Solar CSP
Biomass-Residues
• The region’s
endowment estimated
to be at about 93 PWh
(Ecofys 2009)
• The global power
demand sits at 19.7
PWh (EIA,2015).

8. Policy Framework has made progress
• Most countries:
o RE targets
o RE programs & policies
• Many countries:
o Fiscal incentives/provisions
• Some countries
o Carbon tax
o Preferential dispatch
o Regs on distributive power

9. (IRENA, 2015)
Generation costs are falling
(US$/kWh)

10. 0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
Solar PV Solar CSP Wind onshore
US$/kWh
2012 2025
2050 20750.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
0.500
2012 2025 2050 2075
US$/kWh
Hydro
Wind
Solar utility PV
Solar CSP without storage
Solar Tower with 7 h storage
Wave power
Tidal power
Geothermal
Coal
Natural gas
Diesel (1.71 US$/gallon)
Diesel (5 US$/gallon)
Estimated LCOEs for renewables
(US$/kWh)
Source: Vergara et al, 2016

11. Pathway to zero carbon power in LAC, if…
• All new demand is met by
renewables by 2020
• Fossil plants other than gas are
mothballed by 2030
• All NG plants are mothballed by
2050
• Grid integrated by 2030
(regional storage in hydro)
• Widespread distributed power
by 2030
• Can be done but will
not be easy!
80 GW
240 GW
540 GW
960 GW

12. A market disruption over the horizon

13. Projected learning curves for electric
vehicle options with credit for avoided
cost of air pollution
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Electric Cars Electric Buses (18m) Electric Trucks
US$/km
2012 2025 2050 2075
current LCOE for
Gasoline Cars
current LCOE for
Diesel Buses
current LCOE for
Diesel Trucks

14. Energy savings from full transport
electrification
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
PWh/year
Equivalent energy demand of transport sector if fossil fuels were used
Actual energy demand of electricity by transport sector
Author’s estimates. (IIASA, 2012)

15. Complementarity of electricity and transport
demand
Typical daily load curve in Colombia.
Nominal capacity for hydro is 10GW.
System requires expansion to handle
peak demand.
Daily energy demand of diesel is
60 GWh electric.
If 50% is transitioned,
this would require an additional capacity
of 1250 MW per hour distributed
during the period of lower demand.
Without expansion, system could
accommodate about 50 GWh.
Typical load curve of power demand
In Colombia.
Area: 52.5 GWh

16. Interconnected regional grid
• Allow large reservoirs of renewable energy to access
regional market;
• Dampen the intermittencies of local renewable
resources;
• Allow regional multi-annual reservoirs to operate as a
large energy storage facility;
• Reduce power costs.
• Continue support for grid integration

17. Fuel Subsidies
Estimated $200 billion/year (Di Bella, 2014)
Drives deficits
Drags down long-term competitiveness
Distorts market
Assess impacts and transfer resources to assist in transition

18. Carbon taxes, carbon markets
Carbon markets/taxes already in some countries
Support regional pacific carbon market initiative
Assess net impact on the economy

19. Added value of a Zero GHG Power Sector
• Energy security (inexhaustible renewable resources);
• Improvements in terms of trade;
• Improved air quality in urban areas (electrification of transport);
• Regional cooperation (integrated grid and means of transport); and,
• Places the region on a path more consistent with the sustainable
development goals just adopted by the UN (climate, cities, energy,
forests)
• It would support the deployment of new means of production and
better use of natural resources with improvements in quality of life.
It would not just signal a leadership role for the region in the
climate arena.